Legendary investor Jim Rogers recently appeared on CNBC and voiced some of his latest opinions and investment maneuvers. We haven’t talked about the former Quantum Fund manager for a while because, let’s face it, he’s on television all the damn time. But, some of his comments from this recent interview made us take notice.

Potentially the most notable bit of his conversation was when he said, “I had no shorts for about 15 months so I started putting out some shorts recently. But the fact that I’ve been putting out shorts means the stock market won’t pull back.” So, it’s interesting to see Rogers fight the current trend. In his mind, it’s the right play, but he knows he’s going to potentially feel some pain first. Many investors out there will agree that the market is overdue for a near-term pullback. MarketClub voiced these concerns in their recent technical analysis video of the S&P 500. Additionally, Bespoke outlined that many stocks are overbought.

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Two big name hedge funds have recently set their sights on the same investment. John Paulson’s firm Paulson & Co and George Soros’ hedge fund firm Soros Fund Management are set to purchase shares of NovaGold Resources (NG) in separate offerings by the company.

This morning (March 8th), NovaGold announced that it is proposing to issue 16,636,364 shares at a price of $5.50 to Quantum Partners, Ltd., an investment fund ran by Soros Fund Management. This comes at a substantial discount to current prices as NG currently trades around $6.48. The purchase would mean Soros’ hedge fund is buying $75 million worth of NG shares. The company said they planned to use the net proceeds to fund exploration and development and for general corporate purposes (including possible future acquisitions). This offering is expected to close on March 11th. In addition to this position, we recently took a look at the rest of Soros’ equity portfolio.

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Bank of America Merrill Lynch is out saying to overweight equities and underweight bonds. Their Research Investment Committee (RIC) says that long-term investors should buy ‘humiliation’ and sell ‘hubris,’ noting that equities are currently a ‘humiliated’ asset class.

They attribute this classification to the past ten year performance of large cap equities, a period where these assets performed worse than in the 1930s. They write, “on a relative basis they have clearly suffered the greatest ignominy over the past 10 years and despite the rally of the past nine months remain the most unloved and undervalued asset class.” Hedge funds would certainly agree with the notion to get long equities as they’ve had considerable net long exposure for some time now.

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Upon reading various hedge fund investor letters and conversing with colleagues in the industry, one thing has become quite clear: hedge funds got their asses kicked on the short side of the portfolio in 2009. This is by no means a shocking revelation given that the stock market itself has risen over 70% from the lows back in March 2009. After all, a rising tide seems to lift all boats. While the negative performance of short positions over the past year is a common trend, we want to focus on a theme found in many of their portfolios.

Here’s the common link: many hedge funds have shorted businesses with high operating leverage. Amidst the crisis of the past two years, operating and financial leverage became quite a detriment to various companies. Hedge funds quickly recognized this and shorted shares of companies who would struggle with this burden in an uncertain economic climate. At the time, it was a poignant move. However, markets are often driven by perception (versus reality).

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John Paulson’s hedge fund firm Paulson & Co has just filed a 13D with the SEC and has disclosed a 17.4% ownership stake in SuperMedia (SPMD). The filing was made due to activity on December 31st, 2009 and they now own 2,607,506 shares. This is a newly disclosed stake for them as they did not show share ownership of SPMD when we previously looked at Paulson’s portfolio. SuperMedia is the new name for Idearc, who recently emerged from bankruptcy.

Their position in SuperMedia does require some explanation as they didn’t just solely purchase shares. Taken direct from the SEC filing, we see that “A total of $12,117,456 was paid to acquire shares pursuant to the Standby Purchase Agreement.

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This is the first time we’ve covered BlueGold Capital Management so here’s their background: Founded by Pierre Andurand and Dennis Crema, BlueGold is a London based hedge fund that trades in commodities markets, primarily in oil derivatives. Before founding the firm, they were both senior oil traders at Vitol S.A. and they seek absolute returns “through discretionary fundamental trades, directional and relative-value.” They were up a whopping 209.4% for 2008, a year in which many other hedge funds struggled. Year to date for 2009, BlueGold is up 59.8%. Given that BlueGold primarily trades crude oil, we’d be remiss if we didn’t include a technical look at crude oil for reference.

Their November investor letter provides some interesting commentary on the economy on a macro level. Specifically, their macroeconomic thoughts are pinpointed in a few main talking points. Firstly, Stephen Jen (the author of this section of the letter) feels that the world will gradually recover and should continue on this course at least until next summer. He feels recent risks such as Dubai’s crisis are more-so a temporary distraction rather than a fundamental problem that will begin a wave of sovereign defaults.

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Woodbine Capital is a hedge fund firm founded by two ex-Soros Fund Management players Josh Berkowitz and Marcel Kasumovich, as well as three other partners. George Soros‘ former executives launched their new fund in January with only $185 million and they already have $2.5 billion in assets under management. They have reached their initial target AUM and as such have stopped accepting new investments as of November 3rd. As of the end of October they were up 13.07% for the year. They employ a global macro strategy ala Soros Fund Management as they seek to play various trends by trading in all kinds of markets.

We recently got a glimpse as to what themes they will be watching going forward in their October letter to investors. Woodbine has made three main adjustments to their portfolio:

1. “The global housing theme is removed.”
2. “Deeper emerging market demand/credit and fiscal consolidation are reduced to marker positions.”
3. “Bullish fixed income exposure is raised in our themes of policy cooperation and exit strategies.”

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In a Form 4 filed with the SEC, legendary investor Warren Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that they have sold more shares of Moody’s (MCO). On December 7th they sold 2,004,946 shares at a price of $25.0381 per share. The next day they sold an additional 704,346 shares at a price of $24.8074. In total, they sold 2,709292 shares and they are now left owning 35,357,393 shares. As we mentioned before, Buffett previously sold Moody’s shares in late October, and in months prior as well. (Head over to TickerSpy to see Warren Buffett’s portfolio).

So while Buffett and Berkshire have been selling shares multiple times over the past few months, keep in mind that they still own a sizable chunk of the company.

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• Warren Buffett Dumps More Moody’s (BRK, MCO, BNI)
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• Here’s The Real Reason Warren Buffett Made That Un-Buffettesque Investment In NetJets

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is out with some recent data on hedge fund portfolio positioning as of the first week of December. Per their hedge fund monitor report, we see that hedge funds were still very much long equities as they have overweighted that asset class as well as energy and precious metals. We also learn that they were covering shorts in 10-Year Treasuries and the US dollar index. Those two short positions have been widespread in hedge fund land for some time now as hedgies bet on inflation via rising rates and a weak dollar. While in the past we’ve covered specifics like what ten stocks are most popular amongst hedge funds, we’re taking a step back today to highlight the broader picture.

Overall Exposure Levels

Long/Short Equity Hedge Funds: While most L/S funds typically have had 30-40% net long exposure historically, December kicked off with hedge funds net long by around ~45%. This comes after long/short funds had hit a multi-year high level of 50% net long in mid November. Some recent action by these funds suggest that their inflationary expectations are declining and they have been shifting from value and high quality names into small cap names.

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