Author: Rachel Rose Hartman

The fact that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) appears to be headed for a runoff doesn’t bode well for the incumbent’s re-election odds, according to history.

I consulted University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, who co-wrote the definitive book on the subject, to confirm his study of runoff elections. Overall, whoever places first in a primary wins the runoff 71.8 percent of the time. (So far, looking good for Lincoln.) Things are even better for a Senate primary specifically — the Senate primary leader wins the runoff about 77 percent of the time. (Lt. Gov. Bill Halter beware.)

Not so fast. The odds of winning drop significantly when an incumbent is involved. If the incumbent is the leader in a primary race, he or she wins just 55 percent of the time. The premise behind this is if a voter is willing to vote against the incumbent once, the voter’s more likely to do it again in the runoff.

But that 55 percent applies to all primary races — and last night’s vote was a particularly close one. In an email, Bullock wrote that there are two factors important in the outcome of a runoff: the primary leader’s margin and whether the race is for statewide office. As of this morning, it appeared that Lincoln’s lead was two percentage points or less. The fact that it’s a statewide race means her prospects are even dimmer. So her chances are, by historical standards, likely considerably lower than 55 percent.

To sum it up, “things do not look good for Sen. Lincoln,” Bullock wrote in an email.

President Obama’s decision not to campaign for Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) ahead of his tough primary tonight has been the subject of media chatter in the last few days. But Specter isn’t the only candidate in tonight’s primaries who has received the hands-off approach from Washington when his polling numbers took a southward turn.

Senate candidate Trey Grayson, Kentucky’s Republican secretary of state, received the early backing of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and soon became regarded as the favored GOP candidate to succeed Sen. Jim Bunning (R). The NRSC created a joint fundraising committee with Grayson, Dick Cheney and other GOP figures offered their endorsements, and other lawmakers quickly signed on to support Grayson’s campaign.

But then Grayson began to sink in the polls and GOP anti-Washington candidate Rand Paul, eye doctor and son of Ron Paul, began gaining traction. Sarah Palin, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Bunning all came out with endorsements for Paul, and Focus on the Family chairman James Dobson switched his support from Grayson to Paul.

As we head into tonight’s race, Public Policy Polling has Paul leading Grayson by 18 percentage points.

Back in Pennsylvania, Specter has seen his status go from “major coup” for the Democratic party to candidate for whom the party isn’t willing to trot out the top brass. Vice President Joe Biden was actually in Pennsylvania yesterday, but chose not to make a stop for Specter. Barack Obama last appeared with Specter at a rally in September.

Voters in Pennsylvania did see Obama’s image in a campaign commercial this cycle, but the ad used old footage and was financed by Specter’s campaign. When asked about the White House’s involvement in the race, Specter told The Associated Press: “They’ve done everything we’ve asked them to do.”

Specter tonight faces Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak; polls show the race is a toss-up.

In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is being challenged from the left by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, and the two appear likely to be forced into a runoff (a candidate must win a majority tonight to avoid a runoff, and there are more than two candidates present in this competitive race.) Though the president did not personally step in to help Lincoln, he did record a robo-call for the senator. Additionally, Lincoln’s party is attempting to protect her legislatively by delaying a vote on her derivatives language.

Polls show Lincoln’s chances of coming out ahead tonight are better than Specter’s and certainly better than Grayson’s, although an outright majority may be out of reach.

Either way, considering the anti-incumbent/anti-Washington mood in the country these days, behind-the-scenes help instead of visible support from Washington may be just what candidates are looking for this cycle.

In other races around the country tonight:

• Pennsylvania 12: The special election to choose a successor to John Murtha will coincide tonight with the state’s regularly scheduled primary. Democrat Mark Critz, a former aide to Murtha, is competing against Republican businessman Tim Burns for the chance both to serve out the remainder of Murtha’s current term and to appear on the November general election ballot to serve out the next full term beginning in January.

• Kentucky Senate (D): State Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo are locked in their own competitive primary for the Democratic nomination. Additional Democrats are running. A competitive general election race is expected for this open seat in November.

• Oregon Governor: Voters are choosing candidates for the open gubernatorial race tonight. On the Democratic side, former Gov. John Kitzhaber is the likely leader over former Oregon secretary of state Bill Bradbury. Chris Dudley, a former professional basketball player, is regarded as the top Republican heading into tonight’s race.

• Arkansas Senate (R): Former Rep. John Boozman is expected to place first in tonight’s GOP primary, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be able to avoid a runoff. Former state Sen. Jim Holt appears likely to come in second in the GOP race.

Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R-Fla.) waited until today to announce her retirement from Florida’s 5th District, giving potential successors no time to file the necessary paperwork by the state’s noon deadline. Well, except for her chosen successor, that is.

Brown-Waite released a statement today citing medical concerns (specifically her pancreas) as the reason for her withdrawal.

As I have prepared for my campaign, I have been troubled by persistent health problems and have come to the disappointing and sad conclusion that I cannot run for reelection.

And she also took time to announce her heir apparent, Hernando County Sheriff Richard Nugent. “This past week Rich told me he would stand in my place for election to Congress,” Brown-Waite said in the statement.

It doesn’t appear that this decision was long in the making. Brown-Waite’s announcement came less than a day after her campaign team announced on its website an endorsement from Maggie’s List PAC, which promotes fiscally conservative women for office.

Jimm Phillips contributed to this story.

H/T Swing State Project

Looks like he was for him before he was against him.

Billionaire Jeff Greene, who will reportedly announce his Democratic candidacy for Florida U.S. Senate today, donated $500 to Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Kendrick Meek in Nov. 2009, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Now, Greene will be personally threatening Meek’s candidacy for the Democratic nomination. What a difference a few months make.

So who else received cash from Greene last year? According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Greene gave a hefty $30,400 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee last August and $2,400 to Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes, who is running for Senate in New Hampshire.

Just when you thought the Florida Senate race drama had stabilized for a few hours, meet Jeff Greene. Greene, a real estate billionaire, is reportedly preparing to announce his candidacy today, just hours before the candidate filing deadline in Florida.

Sure, the guy has plenty of cash to fuel a last-minute campaign, but check out how he got all that money:

Greene earned more than $800 million by betting against the sub-prime mortgage market during the recent real estate boom. He’s been called “The Meltdown Mogul” and “The Reluctant Billionaire.”

I can almost hear the campaign commercials now…

If Florida Gov. Charlie Crist wants a glimpse into the life of a newly declared Independent candidate, he need look no further than Massachusetts’ Tim Cahill.

Cahill, the sitting Democratic state treasurer, had been eyeing a gubernatorial bid, but Cahill and the Democratic Party had been drifting apart. The party base continued to rally around sitting Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick, leaving Cahill with little hope of becoming the party favorite. So last year, Cahill changed his party affiliation from Democrat to what Massachusetts’ election law refers to as “unenrolled” status.

That switch shook things up on the Republican side of the race. Polls show that since identifying as unenrolled, Cahill has begun to cut into frontrunner Republican Charlie Baker’s margin. Part of that success can be linked to Cahill’s new alignment with the Tea Party movement.

So can Crist expect the same kind of treatment if he does decide to run as an Independent? Not necessarily. For one, Massachusetts is friendlier territory for outsider candidates — unenrolled voters make up more than half of registered voters in Massachusetts. In Florida, fewer than 20 percent of voters are Independents.

And Crist won’t be the one capitalizing on the Tea Party in his race — Crist’s GOP opponent, Marco Rubio, has conservative support locked down. Polls do show better odds for Crist if he runs as an Independent, but he’d still be playing catch-up to Rubio.

Despite their vastly different circumstances, do Crist or Cahill have a better shot at winning their elections as candidates outside of the two major parties? Well, yes, but they each still have a long road ahead to become more than just a spoiler.

And the suspense continues… Gov. Charlie Crist (R-Fla.) has indicated he will wait until Thursday to announce whether he plans to run for Florida Senate as a Republican or switch his party affiliation to Independent, according to The Associated Press, leaving one of the most closely watched congressional races of 2010 up in the air.

Crist faces a seemingly insurmountable primary challenge on the right from Republican former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, with polls showing the governor trailing Rubio by 10 to more than 20 percentage points in a GOP primary match-up. Republicans have encouraged Crist to drop out of the race to save their party a divisive and expensive primary, but now he’s kept them in suspense by failing to state whether or not he’s preparing to launch an Independent bid. The filing deadline by which to make that decision is noon on Friday.

A recent Rasmussen Reports poll showed Crist placing second in a three-way race between Rubio, Crist and the Democratic frontrunner, Rep. Kendrick Meek.

Just yesterday, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) announced his decision to endorse Indiana Senate candidate Marlin Stutzman, who faces multiple challengers in the May 4 GOP primary. DeMint told FOX News yesterday, “We can raise some money and we’re going to do that with a money bomb over the next week, try to draw some attention.”

Well, that was fast.

DeMint’s PAC, Senate Conservatives Fund, wasted no time assisting Stutzman. The PAC kicked things off yesterday by spending $6,500 for a web ad and email list usage to benefit Stutzman’s campaign. And that’s just Day 1…

Whether they’re gearing up for a competitive primary, adding personal wealth to their campaign coffers or simply raising more in individual donations, nine House candidates have outraised the incumbents they’re challenging, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

For three of the incumbents listed below, this is the second quarter in a row where their challengers beat them in total receipts: Dan Lungren (R-Calif.), Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.)  and Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.). And several incumbents who outraised their challengers through last quarter failed to do so through this second quarter (through March 31): Ron Klein (D-Fla.), John Hall (D-N.Y.), Larry Kissell (D-N.C.), Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), Betty Sutton (D-Pa.) and Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.).

Two members who were outraised as of Jan. 31 have since turned things around: Florida Republican Bill Young and Washington Republican Dave Reichert. Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) was also outraised as of Jan. 31, but Murtha died in February.

Our complete list of House challengers who outraised incumbents:

Randy Altschuler (R-N.Y.): Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop raised a healthy $1.3 million through Mar. 31 and still found himself outraised overall by Altschuler. Altschuler, who is running against Bishop in New York’s 1st District, reported raising $2 million through Mar. 31. But Altschuler’s fundraising take isn’t indicative of donations — he loaned himself more than $1 million. Regardless of how he got the cash, Altschuler was also left with $200,000 more than Bishop after expenses. Republicans have long viewed Bishop as a potential target, due to GOP competitiveness in the district on the local and national levels. The party believes 2010 may be its time to strike because of the national climate and its well-funded challenger — and Altschuler plans to use Bishop’s support for the president’s health care reform plan against him.

Ami Bera (D-Calif.): Republican Rep. Dan Lungren finds himself outraised by first-time candidate Bera yet again in California’s 3rd District, according to the most recent campaign finance totals. Bera, a physician, raised $1.25 million total through March 31, including a $21,000 personal loan, and Bera reported $977,000 remaining in his campaign account after expenses. Lungren, who is serving his eighth term in the House (which includes a stint in the 80’s before he became state attorney general) raised $976,000 total and reported only $650,000 on hand. The district, located in the Sacramento suburbs, supported Barack Obama for president in 2008 while Lungren won re-election with less than 50 percent of the vote. The GOP contends Lungren is favored for re-election, but Democrats have already targeted the race and Bera’s totals are only bolstering their efforts.

Casey Clark (D-Md.): A $50,000 personal loan helped keep Clark ahead of Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) in total funds raised for the second quarter in a row. Clark reported $152,500 raised through March for his campaign in Maryland’s 6th District, and Bartlett raised $120,000. But Bartlett remains miles ahead of Clark on available cash. Bartlett reported $379,000 on hand while Clark had only $70,000 remaining at the end of March. That cash on hand advantage is one of several reasons why few are watching this 2010 race.

Tim D’Annunzio (R-N.C.): D’Annunzio has self-funded his way to the top in the race against Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell in North Carolina’s 8th District. After adding $850,000 in personal funds to his campaign, D’Annunzio reported $970,500 raised overall, placing him ahead of the other GOP candidates in the race as well as Kissell, who raised $676,000. A major bright spot for Kissell: D’Annunzio is spending virtually all the money in his account ahead of the competitive primary — D’Annunzio reported just $75,000 remaining at the end of March. Kissell reported $326,000 on hand. Republicans had been strongly recruiting for this race, and though they failed to secure their top-tier prospects, the district remains competitive.

Tom Ganley (R-Ohio): Ganley gave himself a whopping $2 million loan this past quarter, which easily made him the strongest total fundraiser in Ohio’s 13th District race. Ganley’s $2 million-plus total put him ahead of Democratic Rep. Betty Sutton, who raised a total of $504,000 through March. Ganley was previously running for Ohio Senate, but dropped out in February to challenge Sutton. Though Ganley’s wealth may complicate things for Democrats, the party’s edge in the district continues to bodes well for Sutton.

Nan Hayworth (R-N.Y.): Hayworth, an ophthalmologist, counts a $400,000 personal loan among her total receipts, which has put her ahead of incumbent Democratic Rep. John Hall in total campaign money raised for the New York 19th District race — $918,000 to $856,000. But it’s Hayworth, not Hall, who will need cash to endure a potentially difficult primary. Multiple Republicans are jockeying for the position, while incumbent Hall stands alone on the Democratic side. Hall reported $553,000 on hand and Hayworth reported $658,500 on hand.

Rich Iott (R-Ohio):
A $390,000 loan helped boost Iott’s campaign finance totals ahead of incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th District. Iott was able to report $399,000 raised through Mar. 31 while Kaptur reported $214,000 raised. But Kaptur saved an enormous amount of money from her last re-election bid. Kaptur boasts more than $1 million cash on hand and Iott reported just $179,000 remaining at the end of March. Republicans cast Kaptur, a 14-term incumbent, as vulnerable because of her support for health care reform, but she has a record of consistently winning past re-elections with ease.

Doug Pike (D-Pa.): And the last major self-funder on this list is Pike, who gave himself more than $1 million for a total of $1.6 million raised through March. That total beats out Pennsylvania’s 6th District Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) who reported raising $891,000. Gerlach is not new to competitive re-election races. He is a perennial  target because of his split district (voters their supported Barack Obama for president in 2008 by 17 percentage points while simultaneously re-electing Gerlach). Gerlach has never won an election by more than 52.1 percent.

Allen West (R-Fla.):
At the beginning of the cycle, it was Republican state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner who most worried Rep. Ron Klein’s (D) campaign. When Hasner declined to run, that left Klein’s unsuccessful 2008 challenger, West, in the race. But this cycle, West’s fundraising totals are beginning to overshadow Klein’s and additionally, Republicans have been offering West a national platform for his campaign. West raised more than $2 million through March, while Klein raised $1.9 million. Klein still has an advantage in cash on hand, reporting $2.65 million remaining as of Mar. 31 while West reported just over $1 million remaining. West has been employing the campaign services of BaseConnect, which has drawn scrutiny for its high direct mail costs. But West and other clients have defended the group’s tactics, noting that in addition to fundraising support, BaseConnect has increased his campaign’s visibility and his access to the party.

List of races originated from Center for Responsive Politics information. All fundraising totals were obtained from the Federal Election Commission.

Julissa Treviño contributed to this story.

On the day Eric Massa resigned from the House, he refunded $112,000 in campaign donations, according to the Federal Election Commission. More than half of those refunds, $62,000, were returned to individual donors, and the rest went to political committees. The biggest refund recipients?

Nancy Pelosi – $7,000 (PAC and campaign committee)

Steny Hoyer- $7,000 (PAC and campaign committee)

James Clyburn- $7,000 (PAC and campaign committee)

International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers,- $5,000

International Association of Fire Fighters $5,000

Harris Corp.’s PAC- $5,000

The Engineers Political Education Committee $5,000

Spin it all you want, but Democrat Ted Deutch was strongly favored last night to win the race to replace Florida’s Robert Wexler. Pennsylvania’s upcoming special election, however, is already regarded by the national parties as a major 2010 battleground.

Current Federal Election Commission reports indicate that the National Republican Congressional Committee has already spent $247,000 on the race, the majority of which went towards a television ad aimed to draw on voter discontent about health care reform. And now Vice President Biden is scheduled to appear at an April 23 fundraiser in Pittsburgh for Democratic candidate Mark Critz.

The May 19 contest is being held to elect a successor to John Murtha, who died in February and left open Pennsylvania’s 12th District, which encompasses the city of Johnstown. A poll conducted in March shows Republican candidate Tim Burns leading Critz by just 4 percentage points with 13 percent undecided, as reported by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Since its inception, Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District has elected only one Republican to represent it in the U.S. House. But an upcoming special election for the seat is drawing national attention, as Democrats risk losing the seat and are being forced to spend money on defense.

Oh yeah, one other thing: This is Barack Obama’s birthplace.

So why are Democrats now in danger of losing this seat? Well, it’s really a perfect storm situation for Republicans:

1. It’s a special election. There’s much more room for the unexpected in a special election. In this case, voters will be asked to vote by mail next month to choose a successor to Democrat Neil Abercrombie, who resigned to pursue his gubernatorial bid.

2. The ballot features 14 candidates of all parties on a single ballot. This means that several Democrats could split Democratic support to such a degree that the top Republican actually emerges with the single largest vote share. In fact, two strong Democrats, former Rep. Ed Case and state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, are both seeking their party’s nomination, in addition to many other candidates of both parties.

3. The Republicans have one strong candidate. Republicans made clear at the start of this cycle that they were going to support Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou for the seat, and the party coalesced behind him, pooling its resources. Mitt Romney is among the GOP figures supporting Djou.

4. Democratic infighting. The Democrats are not only splitting the vote, their supporters are turning on each other. David Dayen over at Firedoglake writes that the AFL-CIO has dropped mailers in support of Hanabusa that bash Case.

The DCCC dropped more than $47,000 there last week opposing Djou. I wonder how much more money this race will sap from the parties. And once this special election ends, it’s not even over. There is a regularly scheduled election this year (for which Djou, Hanabusa and Case have filed) to choose a full-term successor who will begin his or her term in January 2011.

As expected, Republicans this weekend already began threatening trouble for Democrats if President Obama nominates someone left of mainstream to succeed Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens. Stevens announced Friday that he plans to retire from the court this summer.

Sens. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), speaking on MSNBC Sunday, and Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), appearing on ABC, did not rule out the use of a filibuster during the nomination process, expected to take place this year. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah.) told The Associated Press that the president is in for “a whale of a fight” if he nominates an activist judge.

And Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), on FOX News, reconfirmed a statement he made Friday indicating that he is open to opposing an up-or-down vote. Additionally, Alexander made clear he may vote against the nominee. “If the president picks someone from the fringe instead of from the middle, or if he picks someone who will apply their feelings instead of applying the law, then that might be an extraordinary case when I can’t vote for that nominee,” Alexander said.

Speculation over potential nominees includes several individuals widely regarded as being the most likely suspects. They include: Solicitor General Elena Kagan; Merrick Garland, D.C. federal appellate judge; and federal appellate judge Diane Wood in Chicago.

Over at National Review, Abigail Thernstrom questions why a black nominee, such as Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, has yet to be floated by her NRO colleagues.

And it’s no surprise that this morning’s latest buzz has some bloggers in a tizzy: “Oh Please God No: On Hillary Clinton for Supreme Court ” Kevin Glass writes this morning on Townhall.com. Clinton is the latest atypical candidate being floated as a nominee. Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm is among the other outliers being discussed, according to multiple news outlets.

But conservative blogs in general are pretty quiet on the SCOTUS short list this morning. No Monday posts as of 10:20am today from RedState, Little Green Footballs or Michelle Malkin.

Two of the president’s stated goals for this administration are to implement a cap-and-trade system and to “make the U.S. a leader on climate change.” He has long been preparing for climate change law. His push to expand offshore drilling in March was viewed as a way to potentially appease lawmakers who would be unlikely to support environmental policies that hinder the potential expansion of drilling. And now that a major climate bill is in the works, Obama will need to effectively use his rhetoric, as he did on the issue of health care reform, to rally Democrats to support the bill. Additionally, when the climate change bill enters the inevitably thorny stage of House-Senate conference, it will be up to Obama to steer negotiations.

Next: 2. Susan Collins

Sen. Graham (R-S.C.) is typically regarded as a reliable vote for his party, but he took the bold step of breaking with his fellow Republicans to join Kerry and Lieberman to help author this climate change legislation. Graham has been actively working to cast the bill as a matter of energy independence and national security, an easier sell to those that bristle at environmental regulation. And once the text is released, Graham becomes perhaps the most influential figure in this entire climate change debate — the bill’s overall success or failure will hinge on Graham’s ability to court those crucial moderate Republicans in the Senate who will swing the vote towards failure or success.

Click here to replay slideshow.

Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) are preparing to drop their climate change bill in the Senate this month, offering the president perhaps his best hope of enacting climate change legislation under his leadership. While the bill’s success is most directly dependent upon action and support from the Senate as a whole, there are many individuals both inside and outside the halls of Congress who will shape the legislation or its success. Here are the ten individuals TWI believes will exert the most influence on this legislation as it works its way through Congress.

Aaron Wiener contributed to this story.

Click here to begin slideshow.

The Democratic majority leader was lauded for his efforts enabling passage of the health care reform bill earlier this year. Now, the party, as well as the White House, will be looking to Reid make climate change legislation a reality. Reid’s ability rally Democrats, especially moderates and those in oil-friendly states, to support the bill will be key in determining its success in the Senate. The question is whether Reid’s impending re-election will influence how hard he’s willing to push a bill if it’s viewed as unpopular.

Next: 4. John Kerry

Rep. Boucher won’t be involved in crafting or shaping the Senate bill (since he is a member of the House), but that doesn’t mean the chamber’s forgotten about the potential power wielded by this Virginia Democrat. Boucher is a staunch defender of the coal industry and likely will fight any effort he views as threatening to his district’s major industry. Just last month, Boucher joined with fellow coal-supporting Democrats to introduce a bill suspending the EPA’s ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. If the Senate approves any climate change legislation, the bill will still need support from Boucher or other House Democrats in coal districts in order to win passage. Senate authors are likely to be already taking this into consideration at this early stage in the bill’s formation.

Next: 6. Lisa Jackson

As President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, Gerard is one of the biggest mouthpieces for the oil and gas industries in the climate change debate. API has in the past funded multiple ad campaigns to fight energy regulation and other issues. Currently, API is running an ad campaign that argues that the president’s budget will create $80 billion in energy taxes. API counts 400 companies as members, which is one reason why Kerry, Graham and Lieberman met with Gerard in March to discuss the legislation. Though the final bill has yet to be published, it’s is widely expected to be more friendly to oil and gas than past proposals.

Next: 7. Rick Boucher

EPA Administrator Jackson won’t play much of a role in the upcoming Senate legislation, but she has certainly laid its foundation. Jackson basically gave Congress a timeline of January 2011 to regulate greenhouse gases, officially stating that the EPA will take matters into its own hands in January 2011 if Congress can’t do the job. This places major pressure on members opposed to regulating greenhouse gases — while are loathe to support this type of legislation, they are even more wary of offering the EPA full control of the issue allowing Congress to be entirely cut out of the process.

Next: 5. Harry Reid