Author: Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Britain’s Ugly Capitalism Will Work

    English Breakfast

    People like to trash the U.K. these days for its Anglo-Saxon-Capitalist economy, and rather stubborn refusal to take full part in the modern political experiment known as Europe. The financial crisis was seen by many as a triumph of the more socialist continental European model.

    But Britain’s accused ‘weaknesses’ might actually be the strengths they were intended to be by those who built them into the economy.

    Thus while the British economy’s flexibility means that it will contracts more rapidly when hit by shocks, it also means that it can adjust and rebound more rapidly as well.

    Economist:

    Nevertheless, the prospects for growth look reasonable. Britain’s record on improving productivity before the crunch was better than its neighbors’. Flexible labour markets have helped restrain wages, so unemployment has not risen nearly as much during the recession as was once feared. Although unions can still damage companies and disrupt public services, they are comparatively small and weak. And, whereas the weaker members of the euro zone are shackled to the stronger countries, Britain has been able to regain competitiveness by allowing its currency to fall. Growth will probably settle down at somewhere between 2% and 2.5%—well below its rate during the long boom, but not that bad historically.

    Too bad the economy has become more rigid lately….

    Reducing the deficit is only one reason to cut government spending. The other, bigger, reason is that the state needs to shrink. The numbers of government employees are swelling; the regulations they design go on tying up business; the tax burden is getting heavier. Many of these dismal trends are Mr Brown’s fault. What the country desperately needs in the election campaign is a sensible debate about how to reverse them. But nobody—least of all Britons—should underestimate the advantages of an open economy in an intertwined world.

    Hopefully Britain realizes that it needs to lean into its strengths, not shackle them, if it wants to avoid disaster.

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  • Citi: By Banning Land Sales, China Will Send Luxury Property Prices Through The Roof

    Hammer Head Chinese Sledgehammer

    Oscar Choi at Citi makes a sharp point — by temporarily banning the sale of land and declaring that 70% of new land supply be allocated to welfare housing, China has actually restricted the supply of property in the higher end property market. Guess what can easily happen to prices when supply shrinks and demand stays the same. Oops.

    Oscar Choi at Citi:

    Less new land allocated to private housing market, especially the high/luxury housing segment. According to the MRL, around 70% of new land supply should be allocated to social welfare housing and low- to-middle end housing construction. It means there will be a sharp decline of new land released for high/luxury end housing segment. In this situation, it is hard to imagine a drop in land prices. This also explains why developers have been so aggressive in recent land acquisitions. Given the insufficient land supply in key cities, land prices should remain at high levels in the coming 2-3 years.

    He’s being hedged… There’s now an even higher risk that luxury Chinese property prices could go through the roof, since supply was just crushed with a regulatory sledgehammer.

    (Via Citi, Land Storm Is Coming, Oscar Choi, 25 March 2010)

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  • 2010 Is The Year Global Trade Surges Back, Get Onboard

    The collapse in global trade has in retrospect been very short-lived. Sure we saw one of the worst contractions in long time during the recent financial crisis, but now it’s all coming back.

    For example, the World Trade Organization expects global trade growth to be in the range of 9.5% this year.

    WTO:

    Without any further upheavals in the global economy, world merchandise trade should resume its normal upward trajectory through the end of 2010, although some deviation from its previous trend line will persist indefinitely. The WTO Secretariat estimates that world exports in volume terms will grow by 9.5%, this year, while developed economies’ exports will expand 7.5% and the rest of the world (developing economies plus the Commonwealth of Independent States) will advance 11%.

    Chart

    So much for the world’s economic model being proven ‘wrong’ during the crisis. In the future, we’ll look back on the collapse above as a blip.

    So get exposed to world trade in any prudent way you can, it’s already staging an impressive rebound and that’s with just the weak global recovery we have right now.

    For more like this: @vincefernando

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  • Rig Counts Make The Shale Gas Boom Dead Obvious, So Don’t Kill It (CHK, XOM)

    Shale gas rig count activity is exploding right now, and is well ahead of even the impressive recovery in rig activity for conventional energy plays.

    Rig Zone:

    The shale state rig count index, which represents unconventional drilling activity in key basins, held up much better than the overall U.S. rig count index in the downturn (declining only about half as much). Furthermore, the shale rig index has more than doubled since the bottom — a much more significant rally than the 65% recovery for the broader market.

    As we predicted in our recent 2010 Q1 Land Rig Review, the North Dakota rig count recently broke through its previous record high thanks to the frenzied pace of rig hiring in the Bakken Shale. Exploration and development activity in hot shale plays like the Bakken, Haynesville and Marcellus appears poised to continue to outpace the more conventional areas.

    chart

    We’ve shown before how foreign energy players are licking their lips at the potential for U.S. shake, finding opportunities to buy into or expand interests in U.S. resources. The latest to up their shale exposure is Norway’s Statoil:

    Business Week:

    Statoil ASA bought additional natural gas shale assets from Chesapeake Energy Corp. for $253 million as Norway’s largest oil and gas producer expands abroad amid dwindling domestic reserves. The company added 59,000 net acres at Marcellus to the 600,000 acres it acquired through an agreement with Chesapeake in 2008, the Stavanger-based company said in an e-mailed statement today.

    This isn’t just a matter of a rising economic tide lifting all boats, as shown in the chart aboe. Combined with interest from multiple global energy majors (such as Exxon), it’s now dead obvious the boom is here. Barring the U.S. shooting itself in the foot with overly restrictive environmental regulations. The energy is here, within U.S. borders. Should we be willing to tap it.

    The author owns shares in Chesapeake Energy (CHK), a shale gas play.

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  • Saudi and Emerati Ships Clash Over Oil Borders in Gulf Sea Battle

    Gulf of arabia

    A water border dispute led to a brief engagement between patrol boats of the UAE and Saudi vessels.

    Gunfire was exchanged:

    Telegraph:

    The United Arab Emirates navy is thought to have opened fire on a small patrol vessel from Saudi Arabia after a dispute over water boundaries.

    According to one report, two Saudi sailors were injured in the alleged bombardment.

    The Saudi vessel was forced to surrender, and its sailors were delivered into custody in Abu Dhabi for several days, before being released and handed over to the Saudi embassy earlier this week.

    The disputed border is a heated issue due to energy resources in the seabed. The intensity of the engagement has shocked diplomats in the region:

    “It looks as though attempts were made to keep this quiet, which is predictable given the important relationship between the two countries and the strategic relationship with Iran,” a Gulf-based diplomat said. “But it does remind us of the simmering rows that there are in this part of the Gulf.”

    Read more here >

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  • Jim Rogers: Greece Should Have Been Left To Die

    Jim Rogers

    Jim Rogers isn’t cheering news of financial support for Greece.

    Europe would be far better off in the long-term if Greece were rather left to go bankrupt.

    CNBC:

    “The Greeks have never lived within their means, and I suspect this time they won’t either, until they’re forced to by either bankruptcy or by someone just refusing to give them loans,” Rogers said.

    “A few years ago the French came up with some phoney bookkeeping that was so absurd that even the Italians were stunned… and the Italians have been using phoney bookkeeping for centuries. This is rampant in Europe,”

    Thus supporting Greece only further entrenches moral hazard. Every country will feel little pressure to reign in government spending that exceeds ‘official’ targets.

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  • Think Europe’s Financial Discipline Is A Joke? America’s Just Became Even Worse

    dumb_and_dumber.jpg

    Here’s an interesting piece of perspective, courtesy of Mr. Market.

    It appears the Germany crisis is fading, partly thanks to the rock solid Angela Merkel, and fears of a U.S. debt crisis are edging back into the lime light, if the views of credit default swap traders mean anything:

    WSJ:

    As the folks at Standard Poor’s Valuation and Risk Strategies division noted in a research note Monday, the difference between the spread on U.S. sovereign credit default swaps and an equivalent benchmark for AAA-rated euro-zone sovereigns flipped into positive territory March 12. As U.S. CDS spreads expanded to their widest levels in two years, that cross-region gap blew out to 5.7 basis points last Friday before narrowing to 4.7 Tuesday.

    Given that the euro is making new near-term lows against the dollar right now, perhaps it’s time to consider closing the euro short and going long. America’s problems could soon overshadow Europe’s once again.

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  • Merkel’s Killer Poker Game Has Shown How, In The End, The Eurozone Is Simply Run By Germany

    binion's vegas casino

    Europe likes to play lip service to the idea of compromise and multilateral-ism, but look who’s really in charge these days.

    Angela Merkel, the Iron Chancellor of Germany, initially put herself in a difficult and lonely position when she stubbornly argued for IMF involvement in any bailout or implied financial backing for Greece. Most of Europe was horrified, initially:

    Der Spiegel:

    By sticking to her concept of IMF involvement, Merkel triggered a new escalation in her struggle against the rest of Europe. Most EU governments — and her finance minister, Schäuble — have argued that intervention by the Washington-based IMF would represent a failure on the part of the EU. Instead, they want Greece’s debt problems to remain in the family. The European Central Bank (ECB) is likewise concerned that, should the IMF gain influence over European budget policy, it could lose some of its independence.

    Yet France has capitulated and is now on board:

    The French government says it is open to including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in an emergency plan for Athens, an idea Merkel has repeatedly brought up recently. Given the prevailing reservations about a euro-zone country turning to the IMF, the chancellor could chalk up Paris’s concession as a resounding success.

    Which means the rest of the Eurozone is likely to follow. Lesson learned? There’s no real Eurozone rescue plan without Germany, and Merkel was very well aware of this.

    Read more about Merkel’s killer poker game at Der Spiegel >

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  • Chinese Companies Come Out In Force To Demand A STRONGER YUAN

    Angry Chinese

    See, China isn’t just about low-cost exporters arbitraging an undervalued yuan anymore.

    Many companies actually want a stronger yuan and the higher relative purchasing power it creates.

    They’re starting to come out in force and be heard:

    Bloomberg:

    Yang Yuanqing, chief executive officer of Beijing-based computer maker Lenovo Group Ltd., said gains would boost consumers’ purchasing power. Qin Xiao, chairman of China Merchants Bank Co., said an end to the yuan’s 20-month peg to the dollar would let lenders set market-based interest rates. Chen Daifu, chairman of Hunan Lengshuijiang Iron & Steel Group Co., said a stronger currency would cut import costs.

    The remarks are significant because it’s the first time so many executives at state-controlled enterprises have spoken publicly in favor of appreciation since China pegged the yuan at 6.8 per dollar in July 2008 to protect exporters, said Lee Boon Keng, deputy chief investment officer at Bank Julius Baer & Co. in Singapore. The comments are at odds with Premier Wen, who said criticizing the peg amounts to “protectionism,” in a March 14 response to sanction demands from U.S. lawmakers.

    When your wealth is accumulated in yuan, it’s nice to see the value of the yuan rise. Especially if you realize that your largest growth market isn’t in the U.S..

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  • The Euro Is So Weak That Now The Words Of A Random Chinese Minister Can Crash it

    There was a day when markets would laugh at the notion that some Chinese minister could slam the euro with his mere words. Things have changed.

    Chinese central bank governor Zhu Min may have briefly crashed the euro simply by saying the following:

    Alphaville:

    “Greece is only one case, but it’s only a tip of the iceberg,” said People’s Bank of China Vice Gov. Zhu Min in a speech in Hong Kong, according to Dow Jones Newswires. “I don’t think Greece will go bankrupt because it’s still relatively small, but we don’t see decisive action that tells the market, ‘We can solve it, we can close it,’ so the market is very volatile,” Zhu reportedly said. He called Spain and Italy the “main concern today.”

    Here it is, as keenly highlighted by Alphaville:

    Nevertheless, the euro dipped sharply against the dollar about 0530 GMT on the day — the comments seemingly pushed the currency through some critical stop-loss levels, although it appears to have rebounded since then.

    Chart

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  • Shorts Setting Up For A Tech Slaughter (CSCO, CIEN, STX, MU, AKAM, CMCSA, CLWR)

    grizzlybear

    Based on the most recent data as of March 15th, Shorts are ramping their bets against a whole host of U.S. tech & communications names:

    24/7 Wall Street:

    Short interest in Cisco (CSCO) was up 12% to 53.7 million. Shares sold short in Ciena (CIEN) rose 45% to 22.6 million. The short interest in Seagate (STX) was up 15% to 27.8% and shares sold short in Micron (MU) rose 7% to 54.8 million. Shares short in Akamia (AKAM) were up 23% to 22.3 million. The short interest in Clearwire (CLWR) was up 15% to 20.8 million. Share short in Comcast (CMCSA) rose 5% to 57.3 million.

    There are more names, continue reading here >

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  • Maersk: Look At The Lopsided Trade Data, This Recovery Won’t Float

    Chart

    Seaborne trade accounts for 80% of world trade by volume… so what’s seen at sea has significant implications for what happens on land.

    Thus you have to perk up when the largest shipping company in the world, Maersk, says it isn’t buying into the global trade recovery yet.

    Hennie van Schoor, Maersk Line’s Asia-Pacific director of business performance, thinks the math, so far, doesn’t add up to a sustainable recovery:

    France 24:

    “The situation remains very, very fragile for the shipping industry,” said Hennie van Schoor, Maersk Line’s director of business performance, Asia-Pacific.

    “It is balanced on a knife’s edge,” he said in a keynote speech at the Asia Pacific Maritime 2010 conference in Singapore.

    He cited data showing that US imports rose 13 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009, but retail sales in the same period expanded by only 1.0 percent.

    For Europe, the continent’s imports were up 3.0 percent, but retail sales climbed a mere 1.0 percent.

    “What this is telling us is that the underlying demand for growth is not there yet,” he said.

    It’s an excellent point the ‘sustainable recovery’ bulls will need to contend with.

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  • Dick Bove: The 162% Run-Up Was Nothing, Get Ready For The REAL Bank Rally

    DickBove-0909-1

    Think you already missed the rally in U.S. financials? The S&P Financials index has already soared 162% from its crisis lows.

    That’s nothing, says Dick Bove of Rochdale Securities. He thinks American bank stocks could quadruple by 2012:

    Bloomberg:

    “Stocks are going to go much higher,” Bove, who is based in Lutz, Florida, said in a telephone interview. “The catalyst is the reduction in loan losses. That’s all that investors in banks care about.”

    “Investors have decided they will bet on that rather than worrying about fundamentals,” he said. “The fundamentals are not good. The first quarter will not show any particular strength in bank earnings. What it will show is an improvement in loan quality and that’s all people are looking at.”

    Nearly 60 percent of the “big public companies” will lose money in the first quarter, Bove said.

    Bove is clearly tempting investors with the prospect of an uber rally. He could be justified, as long as banks don’t suddenly discover that their balance sheets are in reality, once again, nothing like what their financial records make them out to be.

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  • Europe Better Cough Up The Cash Today Since Markets Are Calling The Bluff Already

    Chart

    Eurozone nations better show some hard financial backing for their currency union fast, since markets are already beginning to call the bluff.

    BRUSSELS (AP) — European leaders are facing a moment of truth at a Thursday summit, as markets press them to come up with a financial safety net for Greece — with help from the International Monetary Fund — to stop the euro’s slide and keep debt crises from afflicting more eurozone countries.

    The euro hit a 10-month low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as leading credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s debt, turning up the volume on investor fears that Europe’s currency union has no way to shore up members with troubled economies.

    EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso called on European governments to end dithering over what to do and agree on a detailed plan of financial help for Greece. He said their response at a two-day meeting would be a test of “their commitment to European and monetary union.”

    But Germany has blocked efforts by European nations to come up with a bailout program, saying Greece isn’t asking for help, isn’t on the verge of bankruptcy and should turn to the IMF if it reaches a point where it can’t borrow from markets. France and some EU officials were opposed to IMF involvement.

    European diplomats said frantic negotiations Wednesday could see both France and Germany soften their views and find a solution that includes the IMF and European Union sharing the burden of a financial rescue. Speaking on condition of anonymity, they said Spain’s Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is heading efforts to get the 16 eurozone nations to meet separately Thursday on the crisis surrounding Greece, along with the meeting by all 27 EU member governments.

    Eurozone leaders have only met once for a summit before at the height of the banking crisis in 2008. “He is pushing hard for this and we think it is going to happen,” said the diplomat.

    EU President Herman Van Rompuy is also asking for a eurozone summit, said another EU official. He met French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris on Wednesday, Sarkozy’s office said.

    Greece’s debt crisis has undermined the euro by showing that the rules supporting it have not prevented governments from overspending and running up large deficits and debt loads. Athens’ woes have led to fears other eurozone countries with troubled finances, such as Portugal and Spain, will also come under pressure from the bond market and find themselves unable to borrow at acceptable costs.

    Investors doubts that Greece will pay its debts are leading markets to demand higher interest rates when Athens sells government bonds — rates the government says it can’t go on paying.

    Worries the crisis is exposing fundamental weaknesses in the euro weighed on its exchange rate, which was down 1 percent to $1.3347. It had earlier fallen to $1.3335, its lowest since May.

    “The time has come to make a decision,” said Jean Pisani-Ferry, an economist at the Bruegel think tank. “The eurozone doesn’t have a crisis management regime … Now it has to be done.”

    Germany remains reluctant to put its taxpayers’ money on the line to plug debt problems Greece caused with years of overspending and faking budget figures. A senior government official in Berlin said “for us, there is no decision at this summit on aid to Greece.”

    He said aid “comes into question only as a last resort” when Greece has exhausted all efforts to raise money from bond markets.

    The German government wants the IMF to be “significantly involved” in any bailout because it believes that it could face a legal challenge from the country’s constitutional court unless it can prove that that any European or German aid is the last option left to Greece.

    The European Commission’s Barroso tried to sway them, saying a bailout program would be “a safety net to be used only in case all other means to avoid the crisis have been exhausted” that would protect the financial stability of the currency.

    There are now “concerns” about the eurozone’s stability, the EU’s economy commissioner Olli Rehn said Wednesday. Eurozone nations pledge last month to help Greece if the currency’s stability was in doubt, but didn’t say how they would do that.

    The Greek government says it isn’t looking for money but a detailed plan that would “exert influence” on markets and lower crippling interest rates that are undermining Greek efforts to shave billions of euros from its budget this year.

    Spanish officials said individual loans from eurozone governments would be the most likely bailout option. They said it was “increasingly clear” that the IMF will be involved in some way in a Greek rescue, in cooperation with EU nations.

    Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou warned he would go to the IMF if the EU can’t come up with anything. That would be a serious blow for the eurozone, showing that it can neither prevent a crisis or rescue a member country that risks default.

    But his main aim appears to be to put pressure on markets to get Greece’s borrowing rates down, saying the country is being forced to use the billions of euros it is saving from a tough austerity program to pay extra debt costs.

    Germany is not sympathetic, with officials saying Greece can’t simply seek a bailout because it doesn’t like the high costs markets are charging it because they see it as a bad risk.

    Associated Press writers Elena Becatoros, Robert Wielaard and Gretchen Mahan in Brussels, Pan Pylas in London, Geir Moulson in Berlin, Derek Gatopoulos in Athens, Daniel Woolls in Madrid and Debbie Seward in Paris contributed to this story.

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  • Here’s Proof That US Multinationals Are Terrified Of A Trade War With China (IBM, MSFT, CAT, KO)

    It’s pretty clear that U.S. multinationals such as IBM, Microsoft, Caterpillar, and Coca-Cola are terrified of a potential U.S.-China trade war given that they’ve just released a plethora of reasons to keep U.S. trade open, via Business Roundtable (BR, an association of CEOs from major U.S. companies).

    The data they put forth is rather interesting though. For example, they show how the majority of jobs within U.S. multinationals remains within U.S. borders. The majority of capital equipment and research investment does as well:

    Chart

    Chart

    Moreover, and here’s the heart of the matter in our view, U.S. companies generate more profits abroad than within the U.S..

    Chart

    Thus through our combination of the two selected charts above, it’s easy to see how Americans are able to leverage the world via trade — For the U.S. companies used in Business Roundtable’s data, most profits are generated abroad… yet most of the total investment in people, equipment, and research is in the U.S.. Find BR’s exact take on the situation at Business Roundtable.

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  • Entire Hangzhou Apartment Tower Sells Out In A Single Night

    China Bull

    A 188-unit apartment building in the city of Hangzhou (which sits in one of China’s wealthiest regions) reportedly sold out all of its units just a single day after opening up for sale.

    The price? $6,600 per square meter.

    Which, we imagine, makes a 70 square meter one-bedroom apartment cost $462,000:

    China Daily:

    “Only a few luxury properties are along the scenic Qiantang River and considering its rare location and future price growth, these apartments are not priced too unreasonably,” said Zhou Ganghua, the director of property research center in Zhejiang University. “Home buyers, particularly those investing in high-end real estate, will focus more on quality and location,” he said.

    “Despite the central government’s resolution to tame soaring property prices, they are unlikely to decrease, and may even increase higher and faster,” Ma Ji, consulting manager with Centaline Property Agency Ltd in Shanghai told China Daily.

    Read more here >

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  • American Demand For Japanese Exports Is Now Rising Faster Than China’s

    consumers.jpg

    Chinese demand for Japanese exports soared 48% in February, which is enormous growth as it stands, yet perhaps less surprising by now given all the high growth numbers we’ve seen from the nation.

    What’s far more notable is that American demand growth for Japanese exports has become massive as well:

    Bloomberg:

    Shipments to Asia advanced 55.7 percent in February from a year earlier, compared with a 68.1 percent gain the previous month. Exports to China, Japan’s biggest overseas market, climbed 47.7 percent after rising 79.9 percent in January.

    Demand in the U.S. also picked up from a year ago. Shipments to the world’s biggest economy surged 50.4 percent in February, the most since May 1984, the ministry said. Sales to Europe rose 19.7 percent, the third consecutive increase.

    While Chinese new year may have dampened Chinese demand during the month, the fact that American demand growth can come anywhere near that of China right now shows that something could be stirring. European demand is growing at a far slower level.

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  • Euro Testing Record Lows Against The Franc

    The euro is crashing against the Swiss franc. Apparently traders don’t like the idea that Germany and France are calling for IMF help.

    Business Week:

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party expects her to “resist calls to agree” to aid at the European Union summit, CDU parliamentary group finance spokesman Michael Meister said in an interview yesterday.

    Chart

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  • New Chinese ETF Could Send Waves of Chinese Investors Into U.S. Stocks

    beijing china railroad chinese

    A Chinese investment management firm is about to launch China’s first U.S. S&P 500 exchange traded fund (ETF), for domestic Chinese investors.

    Due to past investment restrictions, this ETF is sure to be a goldmine for the firm as it suddenly opens up the U.S. stock market to Chinese savings.

    Index Universe:

    Bosera Asset Management, a Shenzhen, China-based firm with $30.8 billion under management, will add to the $1 trillion now indexed to the S&P 500 with its new ETF, S&P said in a statement on Thursday. The S&P 500 is the world’s most widely used index. The biggest ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: SPY), had $70.23 billion in assets at the end of February, according to data from the National Stock Exchange.

    “A lot of investors in the 500 come from outside the U.S., whether they use futures, domestically listed ETFs, U.S.-listed ETFs or other measures,” Alexander Matturri, executive managing director at S&P Indices, said in a telephone interview. “The liquidity builds on itself.”

    Note that Bosera already has nearly $31 billion under management vs. $70 billion for the largest U.S.-based S&P 500 ETF. Given the massive glut of Chinese savings, plus the rapidly growing domestic wealth, it’s thus not inconceivable that one day a Chinese S&P 500 ETF could be as large as the SPDR U.S.-based ETF mentioned in the excerpt above. That means a lot of Chinese liquidity, pent up for many years, could start pouring into U.S. stocks as international investment opportunities are expanded for Chinese citizens.

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  • Citi: ETF Gold Holdings “Slipping”, Demand Starts To Wane

    Citi’s Alan Heap notes that ‘Speculators are turning bearish and net longs are contracting.’ for commodities overall. In particular, ‘Gold ETF positions are slipping from a high level’:

    Chart

    Net long positions for gold have come off substantially in 2010, as shown in yellow below:

    Chart

    (Via Citi, Commodity Heap, Alan Heap, 19 March 2010)

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