Author: Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Tanzania Saves The World From China’s Monopolistic Grip On Rare Earth Metals

    China has over 95% market share in the global production of rare earths, but many alternatives are now being examined, such as the Wigu Hill deposit in Tanzania owned by Montero Mining.

    Metal Miner:

    Apparently Wigu Hill has a lot going for it, both geologically and geographically. Geologically because the deposit is carbonatite in form with no associated radioactive materials present such as uranium or thorium that while potentially adding a revenue stream also greatly complicate the handling, concentrating and refining processes. Concentration is another facet of the geological advantages in Wigu’s favor, in places concentration goes as high as 25%, but is likely to average 7% to 10% according to the article. The other advantage is Tanzania’s geographic proximity to world class mining, processing and refining expertise in neighboring South Africa.

    Opportunities like this in Tanzania should be a reminder that there are actually rare earth deposits all over the world. Actually, production in places like North America was shut down in the past due to environmental concerns plus cost competitiveness from China. South Africa and India used to be the world’s leading producers.

    Now that rare earths demand is surging due to their use in battery technology, old production areas can be re-started and new ones can be discovered.

    Wagu is of even higher grade than China’s huge Bayan Obo mine that produces most of the world’s supply:

    Chart

    While China might have a monopoly in the near-term, since it takes time to re-start old rare earth mining activities in other places, in the long-term there is actually no shortage of ‘rare earths’.

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  • Sovereign Default Concerns Spike 40% For The Big Boys

    Obama Sarkozy

    Credit Derivatives Research has warned in a report that while all eyes were on Greece’s financial problems, sovereign default concerns have been skyrocketing for some of world’s largest economies in just the last month.

    Streetwise:

    “While headlines focused, rightly so, on the debacle that is Greece, it is much more of a systemic crisis in developed nations than most would like to believe,” said CDR chief strategist Tim Backshall in a note highlighting a surge in sovereign risk.

    CDR’s Government Risk Index jumped almost 40 per cent in the last month, its highest since Feb. 25. The GRI is made up of credit default swaps on seven of the largest sovereign debt issuers: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.A.

    Read more here >

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  • Greece Short-Term Bonds Shoot Up To 8%

    Chart

    In addition to the worrying explosion in Greece’s six-month bill yield, shown right, now Greece’s two-year short-term bond yield has brushed against the 8% level.

    Investors are losing faith in Greece’s ability to refinance itself, not just in the long-term, but even in the short-term. Which poses an immediate challenge to Europe because Greece simply can’t sustain itself if it has to pay the rates that the market is now demanding.

    Times:

    The volatile bonds movement prompted the European Central Bank to ease the pressure on Greece’s troubled domestic lenders, who have seen €8 billion flow from their coffers in recent weeks. The ECB said that it would prolong a loosening of the rules on using government bonds as collateral for its loans. Bond market analysts believe a rescue is almost inevitable if yields continue to climb as they did yesterday — in the case of the two-year bond by a full percentage point to more than 8 per cent.

    Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB chairman, was at pains yesterday to dispel any doubts about Greece’s solvency. He denied the extension of looser collateral rules was aimed at Greece and said: “Taking all the information I have, default is not an issue for Greece.” His comments were not enough to calm bond and share markets, which suffered a sharp sell-off yesterday in response to the Greek scare.

    Read more here >

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  • Mobs Of Thai Protesters Are Camped Out Right Outside My Condo And Goading The Government To Send In The Troops

    Thailand Red Shirt Protest

    I hate to say it, but there’s a pretty decent chance of a crackdown on extended Thai political protests in Bangkok right now.

    While in the past, “red shirt” protesters (who are asking the government to hold new elections they which many believe the ‘red’ side would win) had either massed around key government areas of the city or Bangkok’s Democracy Monument, this time around they got smart and hit the wealthy Thais where it really hurts — they’ve massed in an upscale shopping district. Now they truly can’t be ignored by the elite.

    They’re literally outside my condo, and some local contacts I’ve spoken with fear that a military crack down is inevitable should they linger since every day the mob spends in a wealthy shopping district is another day of financial losses for business owners, and a very visible scar for tourists to see. Still, using force could only build further support for the ‘red’ side, so the government is trying to avoid it at all costs… without giving in and actually holding new elections of course.

    Thing is, usually these things end short and sharp in Thailand, or they just dissipate into oblivion, then life goes on as usual. Most of the rest of the city will barely notice what’s happening, and most of the elite won’t even care. They’ll just be a annoyed that they can’t stock up on some designer goods this weekend and hope the military mops the situation up so they can get on with things.

    Reuters:

    “We will tear up all laws,” Nattawut Saikua, a “red shirt” leader said late on Thursday, addressing tens of thousands of the mostly rural and working class protesters who have ignored orders to leave Bangkok’s main shopping district since Saturday.

    “We will move out to 10 locations at the same time,” he said. “We don’t want to call it the final day, but if we can score a knockout, we definitely will,” he said. “This is all for Abhisit to dissolve parliament.”

    Thousands of the supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006 and now lives in self-imposed exile, had gathered in the shopping district by morning. Many had slept there on cardboard boxes.

    “This is great. I think we are kicking the government right where it hurts. If they don’t give us elections, don’t expect us to give them back their extravagant way of life,” said Panipa Boonnok, 47, a seamstress from northeastern Maharasakam province, happy with the shutdown of one of Bangkok’s poshest areas.

    Given that thousands of protesters are camped out right on my doorstep this time, with cars blocking streets and goading the government for a confrontation, it’s pretty good timing that I happen to be outside the country and writing this from afar.

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  • Don’t Be Fooled Into Thinking That China’s New Trade Deficit Means Their Trade With America Is About To Reverse

    China iPhone Consumer Chinese

    It’s now become clear that China probably experienced its first trade deficit in 70 months during March, according to a consensus of economists and also a statement from premier Wen Jiabao.

    The deficit is expected to be tiny, at about $360m compared to a $7.6 billion surplus in February, but at the very least the country will use the data to cool criticism of its currency and trade policies.

    Still, when it comes to trade with the U.S. in particular, which is where China is under the most fire due to the fact that its yuan is pegged to the dollar, China’s aggregate March deficit will likely ring hollow. This is because the key global trade imbalance — America’s trade deficit within the context of a pegged yuan — will remain.

    This isn’t to say that China’s deficit is meaningless. The likely March deficit still points to an adjustment in global trade flow, whereby Chinese domestic demand is becoming a more significant driver for the world. It’s just that the March data is unlikely to blunt American anger towards the yuan peg right now.

    Moreover, China’s Minister of Commerce Chen Deming has said that he expects the March trade deficit to be only temporary,a ‘blip on the radar’. The more likely China trend is that of more balanced trade, and this is what the Mr. Chen has said the government wants. The country neither wants large deficits nor surpluses, since both cause considerable problems for the Chinese economy.

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  • 2010’s Job Creation Wave Just Grew 50%

    According to a brand new CEO survey from Business Roundtable, the number of CEOs who planning to add staff over the next six months jumped 50% in Q1 vs. Q4 of last year.

    Nearly one in three companies now plan to create jobs, 29%. This is up substantially from just 19% in Q4:

    Chart

    Even better, 79% of CEOs either plan to add jobs or not cut them. Compare this to the situation in Q1 and Q2 of 2009, and it is clear that the worst of the job cuts are over, and given the strong job creation data for Q1 2010, a wave of job creation is already coming.

    Furthermore, nearly half of U.S. companies plan to expand their capital expenditures within six months. Combined with headcount additions, this amounts to a gusher of corporate spending coming around mid-year.

    Chart

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  • Americans Love To Scream About Taxes Or Social Support, But Only Half Are Actually Paying Income Tax

    grandma couch

    Far fewer Americans have skin in the tax game than you would imagine from the popular uproar, either for or against government spending and social programs.

    Perhaps we need to invert the popular maxim to: no taxation, no representation.

    By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER (AP)

    WASHINGTON — Tax Day is a dreaded deadline for millions, but for nearly half of U.S. households it’s simply somebody else’s problem.

    About 47 percent will pay no federal income taxes at all for 2009. Either their incomes were too low, or they qualified for enough credits, deductions and exemptions to eliminate their liability.

    That’s according to projections by the Tax Policy Center, a Washington research organization.

    Most people still are required to file returns by the April 15 deadline. The penalty for skipping it is limited to the amount of taxes owed, but it’s still almost always better to file: That’s the only way to get a refund of all the income taxes withheld by employers.

    In recent years, credits for low- and middle-income families have grown so much that a family of four making as much as $50,000 will owe no federal income tax for 2009, as long as there are two children younger than 17, according to a separate analysis by the consulting firm Deloitte Tax.

    Tax cuts enacted in the past decade have been generous to wealthy taxpayers, too, making them a target for President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress. Less noticed were tax cuts for low- and middle-income families, which were expanded when Obama signed the massive economic recovery package last year.

    The result is a tax system that exempts almost half the country from paying for programs that benefit everyone, including national defense, public safety, infrastructure and education. It is a system in which the top 10 percent of earners — households making an average of $366,400 in 2006 — paid about 73 percent of the income taxes collected by the federal government.

    The bottom 40 percent, on average, make a profit from the federal income tax, meaning they get more money in tax credits than they would otherwise owe in taxes. For those people, the government sends them a payment.

    “We have 50 percent of people who are getting something for nothing,” said Curtis Dubay, senior tax policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation.

    The vast majority of people who escape federal income taxes still pay other taxes, including federal payroll taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare, and excise taxes on gasoline, aviation, alcohol and cigarettes. Many also pay state or local taxes on sales, income and property.

    That helps explain the country’s aversion to taxes, said Clint Stretch, a tax policy expert Deloitte Tax. He said many people simply look at the difference between their gross pay and their take-home pay and blame the government for the disparity.

    “It’s not uncommon for people to think that their Social Security taxes, their 401(k) contributions, their share of employer health premiums, all of that stuff in their mind gets lumped into income taxes,” Stretch said.

    The federal income tax is the government’s largest source of revenue, raising more than $900 billion — or a little less than half of all government receipts — in the budget year that ended last Sept. 30. But with deductions and credits, especially for families with children, there have long been people who don’t pay it, mainly lower-income families.

    The number of households that don’t pay federal income taxes increased substantially in 2008, when the poor economy reduced incomes and Congress cut taxes in an attempt to help recovery.

    In 2007, about 38 percent of households paid no federal income tax, a figure that jumped to 49 percent in 2008, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center.

    In 2008, President George W. Bush signed a law providing most families with rebate checks of $300 to $1,200. Last year, Obama signed the economic recovery law that expanded some tax credits and created others. Most targeted low- and middle-income families.

    Obama’s Making Work Pay credit provides as much as $800 to couples and $400 to individuals. The expanded child tax credit provides $1,000 for each child under 17. The Earned Income Tax Credit provides up to $5,657 to low-income families with at least three children.

    There are also tax credits for college expenses, buying a new home and upgrading an existing home with energy-efficient doors, windows, furnaces and other appliances. Many of the credits are refundable, meaning if the credits exceed the amount of income taxes owed, the taxpayer gets a payment from the government for the difference.

    “All these things are ways the government says, if you do this, we’ll reduce your tax bill by some amount,” said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center.

    The government could provide the same benefits through spending programs, with the same effect on the federal budget, Williams said. But it sounds better for politicians to say they cut taxes rather than they started a new spending program, he added.

    Obama has pushed tax cuts for low- and middle-income families and tax increases for the wealthy, arguing that wealthier taxpayers fared well in the past decade, so it’s time to pay up. The nation’s wealthiest taxpayers did get big tax breaks under Bush, with the top marginal tax rate reduced from 39.6 percent to 35 percent, and the second-highest rate reduced from 36 percent to 33 percent.

    But income tax rates were lowered at every income level. The changes made it relatively easy for families of four making $50,000 to eliminate their income tax liability.

    Here’s how they did it, according to Deloitte Tax:

    The family was entitled to a standard deduction of $11,400 and four personal exemptions of $3,650 apiece, leaving a taxable income of $24,000. The federal income tax on $24,000 is $2,769.

    With two children younger than 17, the family qualified for two $1,000 child tax credits. Its Making Work Pay credit was $800 because the parents were married filing jointly.

    The $2,800 in credits exceeds the $2,769 in taxes, so the family makes a $31 profit from the federal income tax. That ought to take the sting out of April 15.

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  • The Volcker Trend Just Died Thanks To The 30-Year Yield Break-Out

    Chart

    How can you tell that nobody of economic influence cares about what former federal reserve chairman Paul Volcker has to say anymore?

    Some say by the fact that the 30-year treasury yield is breaking out of a long-term downtrend, previously established under Volcker’s tenure when he beat down inflationary expectations in the U.S. government bond market.

    Buttonwood:

    Kit Juckes of the Ecu group points out that the yield on the 30-year treasury bond yield has moved above its 100-month average. This average has been trending down since the mid-1980s so this is quite a moment (as of last night’s close, the yield was 4.84% and the average was 4.71%).

    Buttonwood argues that this 30-year break-out could be the result of fact that inflation-fighting, well-established since Volcker, has taken a back seat to stimulating the economy and preventing the financial system from collapsing.

    Perhaps, but let’s not forget that even inflation expectations are still low in the market as proven by looking at inflation protected securities vs. plain vanilla ones. (Just to be clear, Buttonwood acknowledged that inflation was currently low right now, so we’re not saying they missed this. We’re just saying that it makes a huge argument against the concept of inflation concerns sending up yields right now.)

    We’d actually be happy to seee the 30-year yield keep rising, and anyone who has berated ‘easy money’ should agree.

    You can’t be complaining about a market fueled with cheap money while at the same time crying wolf when treasury yields are rising from historically depressed levels… especially if both current inflation and inflation expectations in the market are pretty low, as they are.

    So if the 30-year yield heads back to 6%, on a benign inflation outlook, it would actually be a good thing since it’s just the cost of money moving away from historically depressed levels.

    Yet, of course, if the yield spikes due to an explosion of inflation expectations, then that would be an entirely different story. But that’s not the case right now.

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  • Indonesian Central Bank Is Freaking Out About Stock Valuations And Wants To Prick The ‘Bubble’

    Chart

    Indonesia’s central bank is starting to get freaked out about the stellar performance of Indonesia’s stock market.

    The head of the central bank’s economic research is worried that Indonesia, like many emerging markets, might be the victim of developed world fund flows, which have partly shunned markets such as the U.S. in favor of perceived emerging markets strength.

    Thus valuation are completely unjustified, for the central bank. Which to central bank seems to mean they should be unjustified for everybody since they are now even talking about pricking the bubble:

    Bloomberg:

    “The actual stock price now is actually exceeding the fundamental value,” Perry Warjiyo, who was a member of the International Monetary Fund’s executive board before taking his current post in July 2009, said in an interview in Jakarta. “Whatever methodology we use” shows an excess valuation, he said, citing Bank Indonesia studies over recent months.

    “There is a bubble going on,” Warjiyo said in the interview in his office yesterday. Bank Indonesia’s analysis shows the peak of the overvaluation was in July, with part of the deceleration owing to improved economic fundamentals, he said.

    Bank Indonesia board members last year discussed the risks posed by an influx of foreign funds, and the bank studied the feasibility of imposing capital controls, Warjiyo said. For now, the bank is “confident” Indonesia can cope. Should they be applied, any capital controls would be “temporary,” he said.

    Heavy-handed, and rather drastic unpredictable action, could rattle other emerging markets around the world. Jakarta’s Composite Index is down about 1.6% today.

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  • The World Bank Is Cheer-Leading Stimulus Spending, Just Like The IMF, Just Like OPEC

    In unison with the release of its latest East Asia Pacific Economic Update, the World Bank has cautioned Asia, including China, against removing stimulus too soon.

    Asia should ease back on stimulus measures, but it shouldn’t risk cutting them too fast too soon. For China, they point out that ‘government-led investment was the key driver of growth for much of 2009.’ Furthermore, ‘Inflation has turned positive, but it is likely to remain modest in 2010.’ Still, they hedged themselves against the risk of asset bubbles within the economy, such as is suspected with property.

    Overall the World Bank view seems to coincide with the IMF’s warning against governments pulling stimulus too soon, and even OPEC’s, who is also cheer-leading stimulus in order to keep oil demand nice and robust.

    Thing is, it’s pretty easy to ask the world to keep spending pumping money into the economy when it’s not your money that’s being spent.

    Chart

    Chart

    Find the full report at the World Bank.

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  • America Is About To Drop Off This List Of Safest Credit Ratings

    According to CMA Datavision, the U.S. ranks below nine other countries in terms of the safety of its sovereign debt. Norway is #1 and this has been discussed before on this site. But it’s interesting how the Netherlands, Australia, Sweden, and Hong Kong beat out the U.S. as well.

    CMA’s latest report explains that Sweden and Hong Kong are new entrants into this top ten list, displacing France and Belgium. The U.S. could be next to drop off the list as well, given that it’s dead last.

    Chart

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  • Forget Long-Term Bonds, Greek SHORT-TERM Rates Have Exploded And That’s An Immediate Problem

    In response to our highlight of soaring Greek 10-year bond yields, a trader told us we were missing a far more important part of the story:

    Everyone is so focused on the 10 yr yield and if or if not they are going to get this 10 yr bond deal done for Greece. One of the most important aspects of the US financial system collapse and most any other major finical collapse in the world according to any economic doctorate you speak to (Rogoff, Reinhardt, etc.etc.) short term rates are the TELLING signs.

    Greece 6 month Bill is up 313 bps to 6.60 Yield. You take that 6 month bill rate and add this news that is going around: “Greek banks are being hit by a wave of redemptions as rich citizens and companies look to move their money to big global banks or offshore as the country’s debt crisis rages, the Telegraph newspaper reported on its website.

    Markets are losing faith in even the short-term prospects for Greece, not just the longer-term creditworthiness of the nation. And here it is:

    Chart

    Chart

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  • Empty Commercial Real Estate Owners Have No Idea How Worthless Their Properties Are

    emptyoffices2

    As commercial real estate values are highly dependent on the income they generate (they aren’t too productive as empty shells), vacant complexes are shocking their owners right now with selling prices far below what people thought were worth not too long ago.

    Thus it’s probably a great time to buy empty commercial real estate disasters… if you somehow can also bring in tenants as well, or be the tenant.

    Case in point, the 100,000 square-foot ghost building just snatched up by the University of New Mexico:

    REIS:

    The University of New Mexico has a contract to buy the empty, 99,033-squarefoot building at 1650 University NE for $4.6 million, a steep 44 percent discount from the asking price of $8,250,000 just one-and-a-half years ago. The property had gone into foreclosure.

    “We think it’s a pretty fair deal,” said Tom Neale, associate director of real estate at UNM. “We’re really focusing on the building and what it will take for us to renovate and upgrade the (building) systems.”

    UNM’s purchase of the building is not a done deal. “We still need to go to the regents for approval of the transaction,” Neale said. “We’ll do that when we’re satisfied with our building assessment.”

    Yet it’s not just the owner of the building above who’ll be disappointed by this transaction, other owners of other empty distressed properties will shocked as well given that transactions set benchmark prices for others in the market. Thus empty properties drag each other down, and what the guy next door got is a bad sign for what you’re going to get.

    According to the Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index, commercial property prices are down 40.2% since their October 2007 peak, yet have rebounded moderately from their recent low point in October 2009. Yet it’s key to highlight that there’s reportedly a stark difference in performance between the tenant-haves and the tenant-have-nots. If you’ve kept your tenants, prices may have only dropped 10% on average.

    For the vacant properties, transactions such as above suggest there are a lot of owners out there who haven’t fully come to terms with just how little their properties would go for, if sold today.

    Now don’t miss: The Most Depressing Commercial Real Estate Disaster In America >

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  • The Challenge With Technicals: All Sectors Now Look Either Overbought Or Loaded With Momentum

    chart

    The technicals are starting to look shaky, for all sectors, according to Bespoke Investment Group (BIG).

    BIG:

    The light red and green regions represent between one and two standard deviations above (or below) the 50-day moving average (DMA), while the dark red (and green) shading represents more than two standard deviations above (or below) the index’s 50-DMA. As shown in the chart, the S&P 500 and all ten sectors are currently trading at overbought levels, so the recent strength in equities has been a tide that has lifted nearly all boats. To further illustrate this point, we would note that as of yesterday’s close, 92.4% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-DMA while 77.4% are overbought (1+ standard deviation above 50-DMA).

    A commenter on Bespoke’s site replies:

    OB [over-bought] conditions can remain for an extended period of time. It is important to note this condition but itself is not sufficient to be a trigger for going Short.

    One challenge with technicals is that while some would agree with Bespoke’s take of the data above, some could also see the above data as a sign of substantial momentum. At the very least, the technicals remind us of just how quickly and broadly the S&P 500 has snapped up since early February.

    Chart

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  • Los Angeles Credit Rating Slashed Because It Can’t Afford The Electricity Prices Demanded Of It

    Los Angeles

    Moody’s just cut Los Angeles’ credit rating to Aa3 from Aa2 on yesterday.

    It turns out that Los Angeles might have $73.5 million less future cash flow than expected, due to an unfortunate disagreement with the Department of Water and Power.

    Los Angeles Times:

    The downgrade also “partly reflects the likelihood that the city’s general fund reserves at the end of the current fiscal year could be materially weaker than we had previously expected, now that an expected transfer from the Department of Water and Power may be reduced.”

    DWP on Monday took steps to withhold a promised $73.5-million payment to the city’s depleted general fund after City Council refused to give the utility the electricity rate increase it wanted.

    Read more here >

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  • Greek Bonds: 7.2%

    greece child

    The Greek government has clarified their position vis-a-vis the IMF helping the nation along with Europe in the case of an emergency —  they are on board with the latest European plan.

    The IMF has even announced plans to meet the nation in order to advise the country on its debt burden.

    Yet confidence in Greek creditworthiness continued to fall apart overnight, with 10-year Greek bond yields hitting 7.2%.

    The spread vs. German debt hit the widest level since the beginning of the euro.

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  • China Allows Yuan To Appreciate Slightly Right After Geithner Says It’s Their Choice

    Merry Go Round

    There have been a lot of false starts, but once again some yuan-hike murmurings are coming out of China:

    Reuters:

    In another sign that Beijing might be nearing a consensus about appreciation, the central bank set the yuan’s daily mid-point, its key reference rate, at 6.8259 to the dollar, the highest since May last year, though still well within the tight range of the past 20 months.

    “We should keep the yuan basically stable at a balanced and reasonable level, while strengthening analysis and monitoring and making announcements about risks in a timely manner to reduce exporters’ risks and losses,” the NDRC was quoted as saying by the official China Securities Journal.

    When and if it happens, it will be a surprise for many, but at the same time preparations will have to be made ahead of time. So one shouldn’t completely discount government actions, even if this feels like the same old song and dance.

    Note this comes right after Geithner’s ‘no, it’s China’s choice’ move yesterday. Yes, we know, correlation doesn’t necessarily imply causation.

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  • European Economic Growth Still Looks Like It Stalled Out

    a crashed airplane with a broken propeller

    Europe’s economy barely grew in the fourth quarter of 2009 vs. the third quarter (sequentially), and actually fell 2.3% on a year-over-year basis vs. the fourth quarter of 2008.

    Eurostat:

    Euro area1 (EA16) GDP was stable and EU27 GDP increased by 0.1% during the fourth quarter of 2009, compared with the previous quarter, according to second estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2009, growth rates were +0.4% in the euro area and +0.3% in the EU27.

    In comparison with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP declined in the fourth quarter of 2009 by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.3% in the EU27, after -4.1% and -4.3% respectively in the previous quarter.

    This was the second GDP estimate for Q4. Now contrast the result above with the latest U.S. Q4 GDP report:

    U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

    Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

    While the European Q4 GDP was ‘less bad’ vs. Q3, relative economic strength continues in the U.S..

    Asian markets ended positive overnight, but European markets are in the red.

    See the full Eurostat release below.

    Eurostat GDP

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  • China Can’t Shake Its Severe Drought And The Problem Has Gone Regional

    China Drought

    China has been struggling to deal with severe drought in its southwest, which has now gone on for six months. Despite efforts to create artificial rain and divert water resources, the situation remains challenging.

    Worse yet, it’s not just China that is feeling the effects.

    Southeast Asia is increasingly suffering, with over 10% of Thailand’s population in Thai drought-afflicted areas.

    IPS:

    The sight of dry, cracked earth and sandy stretches of riverbed is now common in north-east Thailand and Laos down to the Mekong Delta in Vietnam. China’s south-west Yunnan province, where its Mekong dams are located, is itself hurting from the drought.

    “It is as if the river has gone mad,” said Niwat Roykaew of the Chiang Khong Conservation Group in northern Thailand.

    Thus many both inside and outside China are beginning to re-question the effects of Chinese dam building on the flow of the Mekong River.

    Peter Gleick, of the Pacific Institute, believes that we’ve only seen just the beginning of what will be a water crisis in the region.

    SFGate:

    Now, tensions are rising rapidly. Part of the problem is that China is building massive dams — as many as fifteen are planned — on its portion of the river for hydropower, water storage, and other uses, and they have refused to consult with the downstream nations about their projects. One of these Chinese dams, Xiowan, will be the world’s tallest ever, and its storage capacity will be larger than all other dams in Southeast Asia combined. These dams, along with projects in other countries, will massively alter the flows of the Mekong and threaten to destroy the ecosystems and the livelihoods for millions that depend on the river’s fisheries, flood season for irrigation, and other natural benefits.

    Another part of the current problem is natural drought, perhaps worsened by climate change. In parts of the basin, the current drought is the worst of the century, but downstream nations are accusing upstream nations of contributing to the problem by holding back flows in some of the newly built dams. And there is growing concern that long-term climate changes will worsen the challenges the region faces.

    Some are even wondering whether Southeast Asia is already being deprived of water due to Beijing stocking up, upstream, in order to battle China’s drought in the southwest.

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  • China Orders Steelmaker Shutdown Due To Overcapacity Concerns

    Steel Factory

    The Chinese government has announced that small steelmakers, with steel blast furnaces smaller than 400 cubic meters, must shut down by the end of this year, based on a Tuesday announcement from The State Council.

    This is part of a push to reduce overcapacity across a range of industries including power, coal, steel, cement, and metals. Note that China enacted a three-year moratorium on new applications for steel capacity expansion last year.

    China Daily:

    “These small steel mills are mostly located in Shandong and Shanxi provinces,” said Du Wei, an analyst with industry consultancy firm Umetals.com.

    “It is hard to calculate how many of these steelmakers there are, but the new move will help rein in overcapacity in the steel industry,” Du said.

    China’s crude steel production capacity was forecast at 700 million tons at the end of 2009, while China’s steel output stood at 567.84 million tons last year.

    It’s good news for the large players, but given continued expansion at larger steel producers (they had expansion plans which were applied for ahead of the recent moratorium, one has to imagine that these small producer shutdowns will end being just a drop in the bucket.

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