Category: News

Here a Swan, there a Swan, everywhere a Black Swan…

Newsletter writers, hedge fund managers, journalists, bloggers, technicians, fundamental analysts, economists and strategists are joining the crash camp left and right.  Not the bear camp…the crash camp.

I’ve been running around Manhattan all day taking care of business, meeting clients etc.  After scanning today’s articles and blog posts, I can honestly say that I’ve never heard more chatter about an imminent market crash, all at once, in my life.  It’s like the May 6th Flash Crash got everyone in the mood to talk cataclysm all of a sudden.

I’m not one of those guys who takes everything as a contrarian signal.  I abhor knee-jerk contrarianism.  Samuel Lord once said “Do not choose to be wrong for the sake of being different,” and I think that’s kind of apropos here.

As avowed contrarian Dougie Kass likes to remind us, the crowd usually outsmarts the remnant when herd mentality takes over.  So what is the herd hearing/ seeing?

* First of all, the macro guys are disturbed by the Euro Zone’s crisis and its ripple effect/ contagion risk.  This isn’t new but it is more pervasive.  And the possibility of a China collapse scares the hell out of almost everyone.

* The technicians and Dow Theorists are grossed out and have dusted off all the 1937 charts again.  Specifically, they are looking at the highly distinct pattern of a big drop (May 6th) followed by a failed rally (euro bailout day’s 4% gap open) followed by another fast sell-off.  Richard Russell‘s latest missive, in which he tells us that we won’t recognize America by year’s end, will make you want to kill yourself.

* Equity analysts are all pointing to year-over-year comps which will start getting harder now.  They may feel OK about the “E” but they’re shaky about the “P” – will the tax hikes and regulatory headwinds we now face really allow for a high-teens multiple on whatever the earnings turn out to be?

* Bond guys are freaking out about sovereign stuff, obviously.  We’ve transferred corporate risks onto government balance sheets with bailouts, the Piper still awaits his payment in many cases.

* Eddie Elfenbein posted the results of a CNBC poll yesterday in which 40% of respondents predicted a 50% haircut for the Dow.  Seriously, almost half the respondents predicted Dow 5000 by the end of this year.

* The hedgies are vocally bearish again as well.  Seth Klarman‘s got some cautious commentary out today and Jeremy Grantham‘s “sell everything” stuff is being quoted everywhere.  Raoul Pal put out a newsletter this week with a 2 day-to-2 week crash prediction.

We’re not talking garden variety bearishness here.  We’re talking about ubiquitous crash predictions.  My comment is that I’ve never seen so much certainty in so many places of a coming crash.  Will it be self-fulfilling or are we talking major contrarian signal?

Worth noting no matter what.

This guest post previously appeared at the author’s blog, The Reformed Broker >

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I think it must be hard to feel like a one-man army when you’re wearing such a dorky piece of headwear. The new COMBATREDI (yes, it’s all caps; no, it’s not an acronym) training system pairs a helmet-mounted VR visor with a backpack processing unit to create a rich and immersive “virtual battle space.” Sure, just like a Virtual Boy!

Although they claim realistic graphics and “endless” maneuvering, I’d be concerned about how realistic the movement actually is. I found the gun-shaped projector from Microvision to be pretty engrossing, but I wonder if their little stereo setup (powered by a Core2 Duo and 2GB of DDR2) is as instantaneously responsive? The military thinks so; they’ve sunk quite a chunk of change into the project. You’d think for this many million dollars, they’d get more than 2GB of RAM.

Well, at any rate, it’s better than Halo. If this thing looks interesting, there’s more info over at Danger Room.

Only a month after Rogers and TELUS announce the fact that the BlackBerry Pearl 3G will be “Coming Soon” another company jumps into the spotlight, by surprise, to show it’s arrival before anyone else!  Virgin Mobile Canada posted their product before anyone else.  There are no details about precisely when it is going to be released, however it does at least show it as an available product on their website with Coming Soon evidently displayed.

This new device is looking great being laden with all the latest and greatest.  Wi-Fi, optical trackpad navigation, 3.2 MP camera, and a SureType keyboard are just the beginning.  Even though I’m personally a fan of the full QWERTY devices, I be lying if I said this didn’t sound like an excellent device.

As of this moment, Virgin Mobile Canada is selling the phone for $349.99 without a contract, or $49.99 on a 3 year contract.  The funniest thing about looking at their product page is when you click buy now, it actually said “Sorry, this phone has been flying off the shelves and we’re out of stock. Please make another selection.”  Not exactly what I was expecting, but it was definitely good for a laugh.  Don’t rush though, because although it’s making pearl lovers more anxious, it’s still not there yet!

Later, but only by about 6 hours, Best Buy’s product pages displayed Rogers even sexier looking Pearl 3G.  With a gradient style blended black and red, the Rogers phone, for a fair amount extra, will stand out even more when it’s beside the Virgin Mobile Canada colour sceme.

Weighing in at $79.99 on a 3 year contract or $449.99 with no contract, it does add up to be a substantial percent more than Virgin.  Don’t hesitate to check it out on the website either, but to no surprise, Rogers is also “Out Of Stock” at this time!

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BlackBerry Pearl 3G Shows Up Online at Virgin Mobile Canada and Rogers

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Togetherville, a new social network created for parents and kids, launched its public beta this evening. A tough challenge lays ahead for the startup as it tries to balance creating a safe environment for kids, building trust for parents, and — oh yeah — making it fun so that people will actually want to use it.

Mandeep S. Dhillon, Togetherville CEO, gave us a video demo of how his service works and talked about:

• How the company will use virtual currency to monetize
• Leveraging parents’ existing Facebook social graph
• The precautions the company is taking to be COPPA-compliant
• Using real-world — not anonymous — identities for children

Togetherville has been in the works for three years and received an undisclosed amount of funding from Floodgate.

For more on the social network landscape, read Liz’s in-depth piece There’s No Stopping Facebook over at our subscription research service, GigaOM Pro.

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Give Hewlett-Packard 10,000 cows, and the computer company will give you the means to power a data center. HP today presented research from its HP Labs division showing how a data center can power its servers using the gas produced by cow poop, and dairy farmers, in turn, can take advantage of all the hot air data centers generate to make steam that will help power their farms.

HP’s paper, presented at the ASME International Conference on Energy Sustainability in Phoenix, outlines how this natural gas exchange works. We’ll start with the 10,000 cows. The average dairy cow produces about 120 pounds of manure per day, which can generate 3.0 kWh of electrical energy — or enough to power television usage in three U.S. households.

The waste simply needs to be processed at a plant using anaerobic digestion. HP’s researchers estimate that the resulting methane could power a 5,000-square-foot data center, with some left over to power the dairy farm. This keeps poop out of the waterways and methane out of the air. HP optimistically estimates that farmers would not only break even with such an approach, they’d profit. From the release:

HP researchers estimate that dairy farmers would break even in costs within the first two years of using a system like this and then earn roughly $2 million annually in revenue from selling waste-derived power to data center customers.

Animal waste is used for cooking in other parts of the world, and companies have generally used their waste heat from data center operations to heat their water and offices through onsite cogeneration plants. Yahoo has also turned to farms for inspiration on reducing power consumption — it modeled a data center design off of a chicken coop to reduce the need for air conditioning. So as far-fetched an idea as it may seem, it’s not a total load of crap.

Related GigaOM Pro Content (sub req’d): Green Data Center Design Strategies

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Remember Balloon Boy and his fame-seeking, hoax-creating family? Turns out that despite the criminal charges, fines, and humiliation, their story has a happy ending: They’re getting their balloon back. More »










Balloon boy hoax – Balloons – Colorado – Crafts – Arts

Filed under: Spy Photos, Sedan, Performance, BMW, Luxury

Another month, another round of 2011 BMW M5 spy shots. It never fails. But this latest smattering of pics shows off even more of the Bavarian luxo-bomber’s exterior, including its shapely, M3-inspired fascia, bulging hood and camo-covered (and trademarked) fender vents aft of the front wheels.

Naturally, the rest is comprised of standard 5 Series bits, but those massive, drilled rotors and 10-spoke BBS wheels speak to the heart of the matter. And speaking of the heart – if you weren’t already aware – expect the all-new M5 to be packing upwards of 560 horsepower and 530 pound-feet of torque from its twin-turbocharged 4.4-liter V8. With the recent onslaught of photos, the next M5 is right around the bend, and we should get our first glimpse within the next few months.

Spy Shots: Enough already with the 2011 BMW M5 originally appeared on Autoblog on Tue, 18 May 2010 20:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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GravoplyTM Laser is the new range of materials for interior signage applications available from Gravograph. Suitable for use on both laser machines and rotary engraving machines, GravoplyTM Laser is the most extensive material range on the market, with 78 product items. It is also a low-cost solution, as Gravograph lets all its customers benefit from economies of scale generated on the materials consumed by a worldwide installed base of more than 100,000 machines. In just a few months the Gravoply™ Laser range has become a new standard in Gravograph products.

GravoplyTM Laser stands out through its broad range and its versatility: this new material is intended for laser applications, whether marking or cutting, and also for rotary milling applications. It allows very precise details to be engraved. Six core colours are available (black, white, red, blue, yellow and gold) with 25 cap (surface) colours, in two thicknesses (0.8 and 1.3 mm) and 3 finishes (matt, brushed and gloss), with or without adhesive, making this the most extensive range on the market. GravoplyTM Laser can meet all your needs for signage, badges, labels, identification plates and other applications. Its versatility allows customers to optimize their orders and above all their stock. The variety of options available can also enable customers to diversify their products and services, increasing their revenue.

Gravograph provides a number of services, including small or medium-volume runs of custom sizes to order, for example for badges, tokens or identification plates, which the customer can then just engrave. Specific non-catalogue colour combinations can also be produced to order. All the materials in the range are available from stock to ensure the shortest lead times. Many orders are dispatched in just a few hours, and more than 1000 shipments of materials are made each month.

Eek! Louisiana reporter Mark Potter was reporting on last week’s devastating oil spill on the Gulf Coast for The TODAY Show this morning when he accidentally ingested a bug during the broadcast.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

PHILADELPHIA – Arriving at Democratic Senator Arlen Specter’s primary night party shortly after the polls closed in Pennsylvania, Governor Ed Rendell told Fox News, “The rain hurt, no doubt about it.”

The governor, who has supported Specter all along, did go on to say the late afternoon improvement in the weather worked in Specter’s advantage, as people in Philadelphia voted after work. “The weather let up at four, five, six, the best voting hours helps us,” said Rendell.

However, Governor Rendell did not blame President Obama’s absence this past week in the Keystone state for poor voter turnout “it’s not important that he didn’t show up [in the final hours]. What’s important he wants Specter to win.” The president has been all over Pennsylvania in TV ads for the senior senator.

Obama spent election day just miles outside of Pennsylvania, speaking to factory workers in Youngstown, Ohio, many who live across the state line. His remarks focused on the economy and he made no mention of the primary.

After nearly an hour of trading, the Nikkei is off nearly 2%. Also in Japan, the government is dealing with an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The government has declared a state of emergency, according to Japan Times.

Meanwhile, oil has fallen below $69 in continued after -hours selling.

From Nikkei.com:

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Boom, Baby, Boom…

What’s going on in China?

That’s what we’ve come here to find out. We paid a visit to China 25 years ago and haven’t been back since. More on China in just a minute…

Let’s look at what is going on in the West, first.

Yesterday, the Dow rose slightly – after taking a beating last week. Gold settled at $1,228.

Dear Readers are out of stocks. So we’re not particularly worried. But we’re deeply interested. Has the bear market/Great Correction resumed – as we said it would? Or is this just more ‘noise’ – with no particular meaning?

We don’t know. But we intend to be in cash and gold when we find out.

Back to the Middle Kingdom…

First impression: this is not the same country it was a quarter of a century ago. The last time we were here there were almost no private cars. Everyone dressed in drab grey outfits and rode bicycles. There were no shiny new buildings. There were almost no restaurants. And if you saw a truck, it was likely to be broken down beside the road, with a couple legs sticking out from beneath it.

Second impression: wow! So many daring new buildings…such broad streets…so many construction cranes…so many fancy cars…so many electric bicycles…

..there is no doubt that China is far outpacing Europe and the US in many respects…that the 21st century will be defined by what happens here, not what happens in the West.

Third impression: China is in trouble.

“Stocks dive on housing fears,” says the headline at China Daily.

The Shanghai Composite index suffered its biggest drop of the year yesterday – down 5% after losing 20% since January.

According to the papers, the market has been spooked by the government’s efforts to restrain real estate speculation. The Chinese have a lot of money. And Chinese investors have relatively few places to put it. They tend to buy real estate…or stocks. This has pushed up property prices by as much as 100% in some areas, over the last 12 months. And it has caused the government to worry about a bubble.

Is the Chinese economy a bubble? Most likely – yes. Will it blow up? Again, most likely, yes. In fact, it seems to be blowing up right now. After leading the world in the bounce phase, it now may be leading the world in a return of the Great Correction.

In a nutshell – China’s economy is unbalanced…with far too much weight given to exports. Typical of successful export-oriented Asian economies, it has built too much capacity.

The last big economy to run into this problem was Japan. After the big boom of the ’80s, Japan had too many factories…and too much capital invested in the export sector. When the stock market realized it, a big sell-off began. That bear market lasted at least until 2009 – 19 years. For all we know, it’s still not over.

Stock markets are always discovering what things are really worth. Right now, they’re realizing that China’s companies are not worth quite as much as they thought a few weeks ago.

Will the sell-off continue? We don’t know. But most likely – yes. Because a big boom is typically followed by a big bust.

But wait a minute. How can we reconcile Impression #2 with Impression #3? How can China be the country of the future and still face a big financial upheaval?

Well, that is the future!

Much the same thing happened in the US after 1929. The US faced a tough period of adjustment – made worse by the efforts of the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations. Instead of letting the problem take care of itself – as they did during the 19th century – the feds intervened heavily. In effect, they were trying to keep the future from happening.

You can slow the future… You can make it more painful. You can drag your feet and shut your eyes…but the future is going to happen, whether you like it or not.

As it came about, the future for the US was bright. It just had to live through the Great Depression and WWII first.

China must be facing its own tests and challenges. Maybe they will be political. Maybe they will be only economic. But they are bound to be monumental…

And the events in Thailand show us how they can be bloody too.

“Thai street battles escalate,” says today’s Financial Times.

As of this morning, 29 people have died. More than 230 have been hurt. And a quarter of the country is locked down in a ‘state of emergency.’

Thailand’s troubles look less and less like street protests and more and more like a civil war. Who’s right? Who’s wrong? Who are the good guys? Who are the bad guys?

Who knows? As in most civil wars, it’s probably a shame that both sides can’t lose.

But it shows what can happen….

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Similar Posts:

• The French Can’t Understand Shakespeare…
• The Depression Now Known as “The Great Correction”
• Economy of China to Decelerate?
• The Olympic Torch Passes by Daily Reckoning Offices
• China’s Economy is the Greatest Bubble on Earth

Scientists are now closer than ever to being able to answer what is the volume of Earth’s oceans.

“A lot of water values are taken for granted,” he says. “If you want to know the water volume on the planet, you Google it and you get five different numbers, most of them 30- or 40-year-old values.”

Until now, that is.

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI) scientists Matthew Charette and Walter H.F. Smith have used the latest technology to not only answer how deep our oceans are, but also give the best answer yet as to the volume of our oceans. (more…)

H by Hudson just released their Fall 2010 Lookbook. The range showcases a wide selection of footwear that includes boots, dress shoes, and sneakers in various designs, styles, and colors. Different dyes, washes, and details make the collection thrive as seen in this lookbook. Look to online retailer Coutie for purchase.

Continue reading for more images.

With all the social media applications out there, it’s refreshing when comes along that that’s sounds so unique you have to try it.  Android Town is one of those apps.  From the looks of things in the forums and around the Internet I don’t think I’m the only one that thinks so.  Hit the link below to have a closer look at Android Town and check out some screenies from this exciting new app.

read more

A Audi começou há divulgar essa semana o seu mais novo lançamento, o Audi A5 Sportback.

Por enquanto a marca ainda não declarou nenhuma briga de mercado para o modelo, mas rival não vai faltar para mais essa promessa da Audi.

O modelo será oferecido em duas versões, a primeira versão conta com um motor de 2.0 litros TFSI que rende 211 bhp. A segunda versão conta com um motor de 3.0 litros TDI V6 que rende 369 ft de torque.

Fonte: You Tube

Suspected Times Square Bomber Faisal Shahzad appeared in a Manhattan federal courtroom for the first time since his arrest on May 3. He is facing 5 counts related to a failed plot to detonate a car bomb in the center of the cross roads of America.

A non-handcuffed Shahzad entered a packed courtroom wearing a gray sweatsuit and sat down next to his attorney. He appeared healthy with his hair well kept and a trim beard. He was very quiet – speaking only once when addressed by the federal magistrate – and kept his eyes looking down at the desk.

The hearing took less than 10 minutes before the judge ordered Shahzad detained until his next hearing on June 1st. When exiting the courtroom, federal marshals handcuffed him and led him out.

I ask the Hon Tony Kelly on behalf of Hon Steve Wann, Minister for Primary Industries and Minister for Rural Affairs, the following question without notice:

1.Is the Minister aware that the Walgett Country Women’s Association in Far West New South Wales is calling for a review into the power wielded by the officers of the RSPCA?

2.Is the Minister aware that RSPCA officers have been destroying farmers’ drought-affected livestock without any warning or advance notification?

3.Is the Minister aware that many rural NSW farmers feel that allowing RSPCA officers to continue coming onto their land unannounced, and without any consultation with them or the vets who have been caring for the animals, is allowing them a power which they are sometimes misusing?

4.Can the Minister please indicate what action will be taken to look into such claims?

REV HON DR GORDON MOYES AC MLC

Posted by Hal Dardick at 7:36 p.m.

Two top aides to Cook County Board President Todd Stroger sidestepped the need for commissioners’ approval in doling out nearly $150,000 in census outreach work to people they knew.

The eight contracts are among those being investigated by the county inspector general’s office as it continues to probe Deputy Chief of Staff Carla Oglesby and a company she owns, officials said.



The investigation was launched in the wake of disclosures that a public relations firm owned by Oglesby, spokeswoman for Stroger’s failed re-election bid, was paid just under $25,000 by the county days after Stroger put her on the payroll at $120,000 a year.

Oglesby sought approval for the census outreach contracts. She and Eugene Mullins, Stroger’s spokesman and boyhood friend, picked the eight firms and individuals hired to promote census participation, Mullins said.



Nearly all of the deals were for $24,995 — $5 less than the $25,000 that would have required county board approval. That raised questions among commissioners as to whether the Stroger administration purposefully skirted contracting requirements.



“I would certainly think they wouldn’t have that many contracts that were $24,900,” said Commissioner Larry Suffredin, D-Evanston.



Commissioner John Daley, D-Chicago, the Finance Committee chairman, also said he’s concerned about the contract amounts.

“All of this is under review by the inspector general,” Daley said.



Oglesby returned to work last week after serving a five-day suspension imposed by Stroger, who initially said the time off would last until Inspector General Patrick Blanchard concluded his investigation.



Mullins received a significant raise after Stroger’s last place finish in the Feb. 2 Democratic primary election. He said Tuesday that his raise was being reversed in the wake of publicity.



Mullins said the contracts were handed out to firms and individuals who could wage grass-roots efforts to get more people to participate in the census.



The contracts were sought by Oglesby on April 15 and 16, and checks were issued to six of the firms one week later. None of the firms returned calls asking them to explain the work they were doing.



Invoices submitted by two of the contractors — K. Gregory Demos and the Illinois Human Development Council — were nearly identical and included the same unlisted phone number. Mullins said the Human Development Council contract, which had yet to be paid, was canceled in the wake of questions by the Tribune and another media outlet.



Mullins said the firms were chosen after it was determined the county still had federal funds allocated to promote census participation. “Either we can spend the money the best we can or it goes back to Washington,” Mullins said.



But leaders of the Cook County Complete Count Committee, appointed by Stroger to conduct census outreach, said they were unaware of the contracts.



“Our work has essentially wound down, because the census bureau was putting people out on the street,” committee Chairman Albert Pritchett said.



The contracts were designed to get more people to participate in the door-to-door portion of the census, after the mail-in deadline had passed, Mullins said.



One census expert said outreach could help at this stage of the game. “The big message right now is that the census is not over,” said Terri Ann Lowenthal, a consultant for the Funders Census Initiative. “It’s far from over, and it’s reached its most critical stage.”

Major lighting companies are working tirelessly towards becoming the first to own the LED market.  The super-efficient light source is the future of lighting, but so far, for most consumers the available LED bulbs have been too expensive and dimmer than the incandescent bulbs we’re used to.

But that seems to be changing.  In the next few months, 60-watt equivalent bulbs in the $30 – $40 price range will be hitting the shelves.  In comparison, just two years ago, a 60-watt equivalent cost $90 and a 100-watt dimmable bulb went for $360.

Osram Sylvania is releasing an LED bulb in August that emits 810 lumens (similar to a 60-watt incandescent) that only consumes 12 watts and should last 12 times longer than an incandescent bulb.  That bulb should cost around $40.  The company is also releasing a 75-watt equivalent next year.

Lighting Science will soon start selling a 770 lumen, 9 watt LED bulb at Home Depot with a price in the low $30 range.  Other lighting companies like GE, Panasonic, Lemnis Lighting and Philips are all scrambling to hit a similar lumen-per-price ratio.

Why is $30 for a 60-watt equivalent an important milestone?  Well, first-off, the 60-watt bulb is the best-selling incandescent, so being able to convert an equivalent consumer LED bulb into an affordable price range is key.  Secondly, industry experts say that once LEDs hit $20, utilities could give them away to customers because the energy saved would cover the cost of the bulbs and would allow them to postpone bringing on new power plants.  So, getting the cost of these bulbs into the $30 range means that a $20 bulb is right around the corner.

via Greentech Media