Although the upcoming deployment of the 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team will be an
historic event, the preparation for the unit’s mobilization has already gone down
as the largest training event ever for the Florida Army National
Guard…

The commander of the Kansas National Guard recently visited his state’s
Citizen-Soldiers, who are here conducting an important NATO peace-keeping
mission…

About two months ago, I was notified by the editors at Foreign Policy magazine that they had selected me as one of their “top global thinkers,” to be announced on November 30. I was asked to not say anything about it until then, and, frankly, I wouldn’t have had much to say. A search of the FP archives showed no previous iteration of this list, so I had no idea if it was just a list of people who had interesting articles in an issue over the last year or some such.

So when the new issue of Foreign Policy went live on the web on Sunday Nov 29, I was stunned to discover that it was a list of the 100 “most influential” thought leaders shaping 2009… and that I was #72. Even more surreal was what they said:

72. Jamais Cascio

for being our moral guide to the future.

FUTURIST | INSTITUTE FOR ETHICS AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES | SAN FRANCISCO

Climate change is coming, and geoengineering — the prospect of artificially manipulating the world’s climate — may seem like an easy save. But in fact it’s threatening and ethically complex, putting a literally earth-shaking power in the hands of a few, says Cascio in his new book, Hacking the Earth, the most subtle analysis so far on the subject. This year, Cascio, guru of all things on the horizon and founder of the website Open the Future, agitated to strengthen the global financial system through decentralization; argued passionately that resilience, not sustainability, must be the new goal of environmentalists; and has become a leading thinker on robot ethics.

“Our moral guide to the future.” No pressure.

It’s a very odd list, mixing the usual institutional suspects (e.g., Bernanke, Obama, the Clintons, Cheney(!), Petraeus, Friedman) with a much more interesting (to me) group of more obscure scientists, writers, activists and thinkers. It’s a list of “most influential,” not “best,” so there’s a healthy mix of “yay!” and “no way!”

As part of the process, FP asked the listed folks to answer a set of questions about the world; about half did so (you can do it, too). The more personal items show up with the entries (and you can read mine there), but the more global issues got added up as survey results. But in the spirit of full disclosure, my answers to those questions can be found the extended entry.

But thank you to the editors at Foreign Policy for putting me on your list. I’ll try to live up to those expectations.

In your opinion, is the worst over for the global economy?

b) No

If no, how long will it take for the global recession to end?
a) Less than a year b) 1-2 years c) 2-5 years

Global recession: (a) Less than a year (technically)
Structural weakness, leading to further problems: (c) 2-5 years (or more)

2) What is the most significant underreported story from 2009?

Somali pirates consider themselves a “coast guard,” to defend against illegal fishing by non-African states and illegal dumping of toxic wastes in Somali coastal waters. It’s not just a “piracy” story – or, rather, there are two piracy stories there, but only one is being reported.

3) What will be 2010’s “unknown unknown” – in other words, a global game-changer such as the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks or Iran acquiring nuclear weapons?

It’s rarely possible to predict these, but a few plausible candidates: