New research out of the UK shows definitively that reducing greenhouse gases can save millions of lives around the world. The research makes use of case studies to demonstrate the co-benefits of tackling climate change in four sectors: electricity generation, household energy use, transportation, and food and agriculture.
The studies were commissioned by the NIEHS, part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), in part to help inform discussions next month at the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen.
We do not have personal experience of this ourselves, but one of our regular readers reports the HTC HD2 is having serious issues in Persia.
The problem appears to be in the interaction of the smartphone with the cell phone base stations, with Nokia base stations working perfectly well, and the device not being able to connect at all in areas served by Siemens/Ericsson base stations.
This effective means HTC HD2 owners are only having service in half of the country. According to our informant importers are not taking responsibility for the issue, blaming the government owned carrier TCI/MCI, who have so far been unresponsive.
The only hope for owners (congregating at handheldusers.com forums ) at present appears to be a radio update by HTC, which is what owners are holding out hope for.
Are you an HTC HD2 owner in Iran having issues, or possibly the opposite – some-one having no issues at all? Let us know in the comments below.
Thanks Parsa for the tip.
Filed under: Classics, Etc., Hatchback, Volkswagen, South America
The string of interesting and offbeat Volkswagens from the firm’s Brazilian division is enough to fill a coffee-table book. The SP2, for example, is one of the prettiest variations ever laid atop Type III mechanicals, one that many die-hard Volks-fans in the United States have never heard of. The rest of the world probably knows better what VW do Brasil has wrought; forty-something years of cars we’d dearly love to roll here in The States, but which never came north. Eventually, a Brazilian VeeDub did head for os Estados Unidos.
Instead of Brasilias or Karmann Ghia TCs, we got the Fox. Known in Brazil as the Gol, which rode on its own BX platform, itself a derivate of the B1 platform that underpinned other VW and Audi products. Our Foxes were all sedans or wagons, but a recent troll of old car ads on Flickr turned up this masterpiece. Look carefully – we always thought the Fox transaxle looked a lot like the naughty bits of a Beetle. And there it is, a doghouse-shrouded 1300cc bit of air-cooled muscle mounted in the FRONT. Hot diggety, this thing has it all, 3-door hatch bodywork, a flat-four, and no pesky coolant to boil over in tropical climes. The closest you can come to something like this now is an Impreza hatch, which is an exponentially better car. That doesn’t stop us from thinking about bolting that spare 1600DP into a Polo-Edition Fox and warping everyone’s minds at the next Spring Dust-Off.
[Source: Flickr/Hugo90 – CC2.0]
Gallery: VW Gol
VW Gol: Brazilian proto-Impreza by VW? originally appeared on Autoblog on Sun, 29 Nov 2009 16:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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Filed under: Aftermarket, Coupe, Performance, Mercedes-Benz, Design/Style, Luxury
To put it kindly, we’ll call the attempts to tune the appearance of the Mercedes SLS AMG gilding the lily. Although the folks at Kircherer were obviously not doing the same amount or potency of drugs procured by the gents at MEC Design, they have still managed to disturb the lines of a car that most feel needed no help in the looks department.
This is said to be Kircherer’s version of a Pan-Am car, and it gets carbon fiber blackening bits all around, a rooftop air intake, Kircherer’s trademark wheels, and a leering grille lifted from an Aston Martin. You can also get that grille in gold, if you wish. But there’s only one part of the world where we see that happening…
Gallery: Kircherer SLS 63 CP
[Source: World Car Fans]
Gah!x2: Kicherer Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG rendered originally appeared on Autoblog on Sun, 29 Nov 2009 15:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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Research has shown that pomegranate juice inhibits prostate cancer in mice.
A 2005 study done at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences also found that PSA markers were lower in mice given pomegranate juice.
It was the first published study to show the potential prostate cancer inhibiting effects of pomegranate juice.
A more recent study published in 2008 found that pomegranate extract reduced the size of prostate cancer tumors in mice by inhibiting the growth of new blood vessels that help the tumors grow.
Now that Cody, Adon, and Guy have been confirmed for Super Street Fighter IV, time to check out these bad boys in action. The Famitsu scans from last …
Filed under: Alfa Romeo, Fiat
In truth, Alfa Romeo didn’t simply rename the coming model formerly known as “Milano” to “Giulietta.” It was Fiat’s unhappy Milanese workers who made a stink awful enough to get the company to change course in nomenclature. Seems the new Milano was due to arrive as the last of the Milanese Alfisti were going to be made redundant or moved to Turin, where Fiat is headquartered. The Milan workers, dead set on not being remembered in name alone, protested to the parent company, and so the car has a new name.
That name might or might not be Giulietta, but that’s supposedly where the smart money’s headed. Alfa would only say that “organizational issues” prevented it from disclosing the name and pictures of the car, and gave no indication of when it would tell us what the car will be called. If Giulietta does win the name game, it would be the third time Alfa’s put out a model wearing that moniker.
[Source: Auto News, sub req’d]
REPORT: Alfa Romeo nixes “Milano” designation for 147 successor, ponders Giulietta originally appeared on Autoblog on Sun, 29 Nov 2009 13:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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You can stop closing your eyes and wishing it was all a bad dream – the King of Fighters movie is very real. In fact, it has another video. Don’t worr…
I’ve been dabbling in some code and have finally found out how to do true multitouch on the HD2.
This isn’t some cop out with only pinch zooming, this is the real, multipoint deal 
It’s only two points, but two is better than one right? 
I’ll post some more about it when I’ve managed to make my code readable, probably at XDA-Developers, and with some code samples!
“Any fool can write code that a computer can understand. Good programmers write code that humans can understand.” – Martin Fowler
To open a pomegranate, place it on a cutting board covered with a towel you don’t mind getting stained.
Cut the top part off (the crown) like you would cut off the top of a pumpkin.
Remove the “lid” you have created. You’ll see five membranes inside. Cut the outside of the pomegranate along the lines of these membranes. You don’t need to cut all the way through – you only need to go as deep as the membranes.
Now that you’ve made your cuts, pull the pomegranate apart like an orange. You’ll have five pieces connected to the bottom of the pomegranate. It will look like a star once it’s peeled back.
The pomegranate is ready to eat now. Separate the arils (fleshy pockets of juice containing edible seeds) from the skin and membranes or you can eat them right out of the skin.
Sonoma County, California | Unique Collections
I would rather be ashes than dust!
I would rather that my spark should burn out in a brilliant blaze than it should be stifled by dry-rot.
I would rather be a superb meteor, every atom of me in magnificent glow, than a sleepy and permanent planet.
The function of man is to live, not to exist.
I shall not waste my days trying to prolong them.
I shall use my time. – Jack London
Jack London, well know as the author of Call of the Wild and lesser known as a booze hound and ladies man, died in the small town of Glen Ellen, 60 miles north of his home town San Francisco, three years after his dream house, known as the Wolf House, caught fire and burnt down.
While the ruins are known as the Wolf House, Jack and wife Charmain London lovingly called their dream house “The Big House” or “The Castle.” A big house it was; 15,000 sq ft, four stories with twenty-six rooms and nine fireplaces, and designed in a mixture of Spanish, exemplified by the terracotta tile roof, and Craftsman Styles, seen in the log cabin exterior and detailed wooden interior. The Wolf House was to become the London’s home, Jack’s work shop, Charmain’s tower, and an oversized cabinet of curiosities filled with the London’s unique collection from their world travels.
Albert Farr of San Francisco designed the house and construction began in 1910 and was nearly completed in August 1913 when it burnt to the ground. A team of forensic ‘experts’ were rumored to have ruled the cause of the fire to be “spontaneous combustion.”
Jack vowed to rebuild the Wolf House, but with an insurance policy only paying out 1/8 the amount of money already poured into the project, he died three years later of kidney disease having rebuilt very little.
What’s left today are the haunting remains of the London’s dream home. The two lower stories of rock remain mostly intact, covered in moss and sprouting ferns, while the five towering chimneys built to support five fireplaces are held up by massive steal support beams. A wooden walkway guides visitors around the ruins keeping them safely away from the chimneys while affording beautiful views of the stone remains.
Jack London State Historic Park houses the London’s collection in the Happy Halls House, which wife Charmain built after Jack’s death. Most of the furniture was custom built for use in the ill-fated Wolf House, and a corner of the house is set up to preserve Jack’s writing studio as it would have looked when he died. In this house the music of the time is played on the London’s piano by a talented volunteer and the walls are decorated with curiosities from around the world. As short walk from this house is the “Country Cottage” where they lived until Jack’s death and, if you are lucky, a docent will show you around the amazing gourmet kitchen.
A short walk in the opposite direction are the graves of Jack and Charmain London.
San Francisco, California | Curious Places of Worship
In 1966, a journalist asked John Coltrane what he’d like to be in five years. His response proved to be prophetic: “A saint.” Thanks to the Reverend Franzo Wayne King and the African Orthodox Church, Coltrane can rest easy. Founded in 1982, the Church of Saint John Will-I-Am Coltrane encourages its followers to know God through weekly “sound baptisms” focusing on their patron saint’s later albums.
Keeping with the Church’s stated mission to, “help followers recognize sound as the preexisting wisdom of God,” Coltrane has been incorporated into the beliefs of African Orthodox Christianity not through worshiping the man himself, but rather through studying, “the divine nature of John Coltrane as he ascended to oneness with God through sound.”
At the church, where a sign outside reads “Coltrane Lives!”, congregants pay witness to the “Risen Trane,” Rev. King’s shorthand for Coltrane and his creations from 1957 onward. Prior to that time, the legendary saxophonist had been severely addicted to heroin. Coltrane managed to kick his drug habits cold turkey, and claimed to hear the voice of God during the depths of his withdrawal. Ultimately, the church has used the musician and his musical work as testimony incarnate of the power and empowerment God bestows on each person.
Being equal parts house of jazz and House of God, the Church of Saint John caters to musicians and all those who understand that noon on a Sunday still counts as morning, and isn’t too late for a spiritual soul quenching testimony. The three-hour-long service every Sunday afternoon is a mixture of Pentecostal revival and jam session with musical stylings ranging from jazz to funk, gospel to reggae.
All are welcome at the Church of Saint John Coltrane. The usual attendees are a melting pot of locals from various creeds and races, blended with tourists and gawkers for a little spice. Audience members are encouraged to bring their own instruments to join in on the playing, and dancing is omnipresent, both by the church’s leaders and congregants.
The centerpiece of each week’s sound baptism is Coltrane’s legendary free-jazz album “A Love Supreme,” which is uniquely recreated featuring the choir reciting Psalm 23 over the track “Acknowledgment.” Meanwhile, the audience participates in call-and-response of the words “a love supreme” at appropriate moments throughout the album.
Also, every Tuesday from noon to 4pm on KPOO (the only black-owned radio station west of the Mississippi River) the Rev. Sister Wanika King hosts a live radio show called “Uplift” during which she “spins the discs” of Coltrane’s renewing sounds. The broadcast is a feast for ears, mind, and soul, punctuated by inspirational commentary and quotes from Saint John himself.
Though such spiritual enlightenment by way of Coltrane may sound appealing, the Rev. King understands not everyone can make a pilgrimage to his house of worship. In these cases, he offers the following bit of advice: “If you ain’t happy, you ain’t listening to enough Coltrane!”
New Orleans, Louisiana | Outsider Architecture
Hidden in the back yard of a creole mansion on Esplanade Avenue, the New Orleans Treehouse is a five-story installation constructed in the limbs of a golden rain tree. Composed primarily of materials salvaged from abandoned sites in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina, the structure includes a rope bridge, canopy lookout tower, and waterslide.
The installation undergoes continual change as new materials are discovered and acquired. The house at 1614 esplanade is known as the NOLA Art House, and is home to HomeMade Parachutes, the group responsible for the construction of the Treehouse.
Filed under: Motorsports, Volkswagen
There have been rumblings about VW getting into F1 by signing up with a specific team, but the chatter was always quashed. This time, reports suggest that VW is actively talking up the idea of getting into Formula 1 after 2012, but as an engine supplier to multiple teams. Hans-Joachim Stuck, VW’s motorsports head, said with the way F1 engine regulations are going — especially with costs and the potential of the “world engine” — it could be the perfect opportunity for VW to start pumping out powerplants.
While future F1 regulations are still undefined, and VW’s eventual entry into the series is by no means guaranteed, it’s clear that VW’s looking for ways to show off its engineering chops and get its name onto tracks. Stuck recently visited a NASCAR race and spoke about the company looking to get into the GrandAm series, and perhaps IndyCar.
Interestingly, the very conditions that Stuck sees as favorable for VW’s entry are the ones that a number of F1 teams and fans are, at best, ambivalent about: substantially lower costs, spec engines, and more than 24 teams on the grid. With a new FIA president, what F1 is going to look like after 2012 is almost completely unknown. Hat tip to Stefano
[Source: Autosport]
Rumormill: Volkswagen ponders becoming F1 engine supplier in 2012 originally appeared on Autoblog on Sun, 29 Nov 2009 12:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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Blowing off work to play a video game. This one’s just a TV ad, but we know perfectly well that it happens in real life. This grade school teacher has…
Filed under: Coupe, Performance, Etc., Videos, BMW
For the life of us, we can’t figure this. BMWblog has posted a video of what surely looks like an O.G. BMW M1, dressed up in that ubiquitous swirlydelic camouflage du jour and parked on a Munich street. It’s either a very clever gag being put on by someone, or something potentially awesome is afoot. Either way, we can dig it. See for yourselves after the jump. Thanks to Mike S. for the tip!
Continue reading VIDEO: BMW M1 in mule-style camo?
VIDEO: BMW M1 in mule-style camo? originally appeared on Autoblog on Sun, 29 Nov 2009 10:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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Some district judges call in sick to play Call of Duty, while some Hollywood actors go to late night talkshows to let everyone know they love them som…
I admit that of late my writings have had a rather dark tone. There are certainly a number of severe long-term problems that we must deal with, and they’re going to serve up a lot of economic pain.
But the Thanksgiving weekend with the kids has me in a reflective mood, and one that has only served to underscore my long-term optimism.
This week we look at why 2007 will not be the good old days we will yearn for in 20 years, after we briefly visit Dubai and the latest unemployment numbers.
While we in the US spent our Thursday eating turkey and watching football, the rest of the world’s markets went into a downward spiral as Dubai announced it wanted its lenders to give the country a six-month moratorium on some $80-90 billion in debt. This has the potential to be the largest sovereign debt default since Argentina. Somehow this was a shocking development. (How can too much debt and real estate be a problem?) And by markets I mean gold, commodities, oil, stocks, and risk assets everywhere. They all went down. Today the US markets experienced their own sell-off, though not as deeply as the rest of the world.
As I wrote last Friday, the world is now negatively correlated with the dollar, and as money went into the dollar and US treasuries, everything else went down. Vietnam devalues, Greece is looking increasingly risky, Russia wants to devalue some more, the world is still deleveraging, etc. Is this another repeat of 1998, when Russia and the Asian debt crisis tanked the markets?
To get an answer, let’s look at some facts about Dubai. It is one of the Arab Emirates; but unlike its neighbor Abu Dhabi, oil is only about 6% of the economy. While the foundations of the country were built with oil, the country has diversified into finance, real estate, tourism, trading, and manufacturing. It is a small country, with a little under 1.5 million residents, but with less than 20% being natural citizens – the rest are expatriates. The gross domestic product is around US $50 billion.
(Note: http://www.ameinfo.com/67802.html and then converting the currency. I found the numbers on various websites and services strangely at wide discrepancies. This seems close to a median number. I think the discrepancy is mostly people confusing the GDP for the United Arab Emirates as a whole, which includes Abu Dhabi, rather than just Dubai.)
Dubai has become a byword for thinking large. The world’s tallest building, underwater hotels, the largest manmade islands (plural), indoor snow skiing in the desert… For links to more information try this from Wikipedia: “The large-scale real estate development projects have led to the construction of some of the tallest skyscrapers and largest projects in the world, such as the Emirates Towers, the Burj Dubai, the Palm Islands and the world’s second tallest, and most expensive hotel, the Burj Al Arab.” The list goes on and on.
UBS suggests that the $80-90 billion in debt may not include rather large off-balance-sheet debt (where have we seen that one?). So, a country with a GDP of $50 billion borrows $100 billion. They build massive projects, which are now among the most expensive real estate in the world. The latest manmade island plans for one million people to buy property there. Seriously. Talk about Field of Dreams.
Then came the credit crunch. Property values dropped by as much as 50%. Sales, say the developers in understatements, have slowed. Seems there was a lot of debt used to speculate on real estate, not to mention buying Barney’s, Las Vegas casinos, banks, etc. And while US banks have little exposure, it seems England has about 50% or so of the debt, with the rest of Europe having the lion’s share of the remainder. Admittedly, the estimates seem to confuse the debt of Dubai with that of Abu Dhabi, so it is hard to know a reliable number, other than that European banks are the most exposed.
Now, here’s the deal. Abu Dhabi has the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, at over $650 billion. Dubai has a “mere” $15 billion. If they cared to, Abu Dhabi could write a small check and make all the problems disappear. It just seems that they are not ready to do that, at least not yet. Abu Dhabi already got the world’s tallest building on past debt problems.
Construction and real estate were as much as 25% of the economy. Let’s see. Large leverage with maybe $5 billion in interest in a $50 billion economy that is 25% construction? A construction and real estate-driven economy. A real estate bubble. Sound like California, Florida, Spain? How can this be a surprise, except that everyone expected big brother Abu Dhabi to pick up the check?
While Abu Dhabi did advance $5 billion earlier, Dubai is not letting that money out of the country. There are projects to be finished, you understand. From where I sit, this is just rather hard-headed negotiations, a restructuring of who owns what and who will get what assets. It will all settle out. Given the massive losses that world banks have already taken, this is rather small potatoes.
So why the reaction by the markets? Because I think many participants know that the potential for there to be a serious correction is quite real. When anything as relatively small as Dubai spooks the market, it should serve as a warning sign. The world has priced in 5% GDP growth for the US and much of the developed world in the equity and commodity markets. Either we have to get that or the markets are going to have to come back to the reality of what I think is going to be a much lower growth figure.
But in any event, one of the lessons to be learned is that investors should pay attention to where the leverage is. Unsustainable debt trends end in tears. They always do. Spain, Greece, Italy, the UK, and Japan will all have to face major restructuring in the next decade due to leverage. And we in the US will also find that we cannot grow debt at our current levels. Will we pare our debt willingly or be forced to by the market? Either way, it will make for a less than optimal economy over the coming years. Muddle Through, indeed.
The headlines said that initial claims dropped to 466,000 here in the US, finally falling below 500,000. This was greeted with proclamations of recovery. First, let me say that 466,000 people filing for unemployment is still way too high. That is a lot of people losing their jobs, and when we first crossed over 450,000 a few years ago that level was seen as a sign of recession.
Second, the headline number was a seasonally adjusted number. The actual number was 543,926. What is happening is that we are coming off of wickedly high numbers in 2008 and a seasonal number that was much lower in the preceding years. It is another part of the Statistical Recovery. And this trend is likely to keep on for the rest of the quarter. My friend John Vogel, who analyzes the unemployment numbers for me each week, shows pretty convincingly that the average for this current quarter will be over 500,000 per week on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. This is less than a 10% drop from last year for the same quarter. Job losses are continuing to mount, and we are on our way to an 11%-plus unemployment number by next summer. Statistical Recovery, indeed.
I am optimistic by nature. An entrepreneur friend of mine gave me a term that I have grown to love. She calls it “psychic income.” It’s that bit of hoped-for future income that is in our minds, that drives some of us, inflicted with the entrepreneurial gene, to do the next deal, make the next big plan, scheme yet another scheme to finally hit whatever counts as the big one for each of us. How much better would our life be, how our problems would go away, if only this one thing would come about! It has not yet become real income, yet we live and act as if it is almost real. We can feel it getting ready to happen. It is still in our heads, this psychic income. Yet it is in some ways real for us.
I get my propensity for psychic income naturally. My Less-Than-Sainted Dad lived on psychic income. He was always trying to invent something or launch a new business. He had large ups and downs, and at times we would be now classified as below the poverty line. Not that I knew that as a kid. Mostly, Dad lived in his dreams, though often alcoholic ones, of a better future, but he never gave up. In his mid-70s he was re-inventing the small printing press in his garage, with plans for national production. It was only after we had to take his car from him in his mid-80s that he quit. It was a very sad day. I now know we had not just taken his car, but far more than that: his dreams, his psychic income.
For some, I should note, psychic income is not just about money. It may be about the next promotion or the next big discovery. For some of us, it is just having our ideas accepted and validated in the court of human opinion. It is simply what drives us.
I graduated from seminary in the winter of 1974, entering the workforce in the hard year of 1975. We were coming off a recession, about which I technically knew little. I did know jobs were tight. I was unknowingly faceing another eight years of high unemployment, a tumultuous stock market, rising commodity prices, high inflation, and rising interest rates. Japan was just beginning to be a real force in the world. People were still buying bomb shelters, as Russia was a feared and powerful enemy. As the price of gold rose, there were those who told us the dollar would soon be worthless (the Fed was a problem and the deficit was out of control), and so we needed to buy yet more gold and also a year’s worth of dried food.
Not the best time to start a business; yet within a year or so, I ended up starting my own print brokering business, as jobs were scarce and that is what I knew. I often get letters from readers giving me grief about my rich hedge-fund friends and our fabulous wealth, and how little we relate to the real world. And for some of my rich hedge-fund friends, that may be true (although for most of my friends that is not true). And I am sadly far from rich, although I have dreams.
I remember waking up in the late 70s at 2 AM with a knot in my stomach, because a small bank was in trouble and had called my loan (an amount which now seems so small, but at the time it was all the money in the world). How would I make payroll? Gas and food? I know what it is like to work long hours and live on a very tight budget, with some months being behind on everything, while all the while your family is growing.
But I got lucky, and through a series of events got into the investment publishing field in the early ’80s, then partnered in an investment firm, and then went on my own in 1999. I stuck this letter on the internet in August of 2000, and things just took off.
But how many setbacks, bumpy rides, and false starts have I gone through over the decades? Frankly, I try to forget. But the point is that each of those episodes was another learning opportunity. And I woke up the next morning and started trying to figure it all out.
But it’s not just me, it’ is tens of millions of entrepreneurs and businessmen and women in the US, and hundreds of millions worldwide, that have the same ambitions and drive. Every night we go to sleep on our psychic income, and every day we get up and try to figure out how to turn it into real income. And some of us are talented or lucky (that would be me) enough to make it happen.
Long-time readers know that I think we are in the midst of a secular bear cycle, much like 1966-82. The next decade is likely to produce less than average growth, due to structural problems and the bad choices we have made with personal and government debt. I am perfectly cognizant that unemployment will be over 10% for a protracted time. That is tragic for those unemployed and underemployed. I realize the entire developed world has huge and seemingly insurmountable pension and medical obligations over the next few decades, which we cannot possibly hope to meet. The level of angst that we will live through as we adjust will not be fun.
But the point is, that is just what we do – we live through it. In spite of the problems, we get up every day and figure out how to make it. Would it be better if we could get our act together in (pick a country) and not be forced to adjust because we have come to the end of the line? Yes, I know we will likely have some very tumultuous times ahead of us, making business and investment decisions more than a little difficult.
So what? The future is never easy for all but a few of us, at least not for long. But we figure it out. And that is why in 20 years we will be better off than we are today. Each of us, all over the world, by working out our own visions of psychic income, will make the real world a better place.
Let’s look at some changes we are likely to see over the next few decades. My view is that we have a number of waves of change getting ready to erupt on the world stage. The combination of them is what I call the Millennium Wave, the most significant period of change in human history. And one for which most of us are not yet ready.
Some time next year, we are going to see the three-billionth person get access to the telecosm (phones and internet, etc.). By 2015 it will be five billion people. Within ten years, most of the world will be able to access cheap (I mean really cheap) high-speed wireless broadband at connection rates that dwarf what we now have.
That is going to unleash a wave of creativity and new business that will be staggering. That heretofore hidden genius in Mumbai or Vladivostok or Kisangani will now have the ability to bring his ideas, talent, and energy to change the world in ways we can hardly imagine. When Isaac Watts was inventing the steam engine, there were a handful of engineers who could work with him. Now we throw a staggering number of scientists and engineers at trivial problems, let alone the really big ones.
And because of the internet, the advances of one person soon become known and built upon in a giant dance of collaboration. It is because of this giant dance, this unplanned group effort, that we will all figure out how to make advances in so many ways. (Of course, that is hugely disruptive to businesses that don’t adapt.)
Ever-faster change is what is happening in medicine. None of us in 2030 will want to go back to 2010, which will then seem as barbaric and antiquated as, say, 1975. Within a few years, it will be hard to keep up with the number of human trials of gene therapy and stem cell research. Sadly for the US, most of the tests will be done outside of our borders, but we will still benefit from the results.
I spend some spare study time on stem cell research. It fascinates me. We are now very close to being able to start with your skin cells and grow you a new liver (or whatever). Muscular dystrophy? There are reasons to be very encouraged.
Alzheimer’s disease requires somewhere between 5-7% of total US health-care costs. Defeat that and a large part of our health-care budget is fixed. And it will be first stopped and then cured. Same thing with cancers and all sorts of inflammatory diseases. There is reason to think a company may have found a generic cure for the common flu virus.
A whole new industry is getting ready to be born. And with it new jobs and investment opportunities.
Energy problems? Are we running out of oil? My bet is that in less than 20 years we won’t care. We will be driving electric cars that are far superior to what we have today in every way, from power sources that are not oil-based.
For whatever reason, I seem to run into people who are working on new forms of energy. They are literally working in their garages on novel new ways to produce electric power; and my venture-capital MIT PhD friend says they are for real when I introduce them. And if I know of a handful, there are undoubtably thousands of such people. Not to mention well-funded corporations and startups looking to be the next new thing. Will one or more make it? My bet is that more than one will. We will find ourselves with whole new industries as we rebuild our power grids, not to mention what this will mean for the emerging markets.
What about nanotech? Robotics? Artificial intelligence? Virtual reality? There are whole new industries that are waiting to be born. In 1980 there were few who saw the rise of personal computers, and even fewer who envisioned the internet. Mapping the human genome? Which we can now do for an individual for a few thousand dollars? There are hundreds of new businesses that couldn’t even exist just 20 years ago.
I am not sure where the new jobs will come from, but they will. Just as they did in 1975.
There is, however, one more reason I am optimistic. Sitting around the dinner table, I looked at my kids. I have seven kids, five of whom are adopted. I have two Korean twins, two black kids, a blond, a (sometimes) brunette, and a redhead. They range in age from 15 to 32. It is a rather unique family. My oldest black son is married to a white girl and my middle white son is with a black girl. They both have given me grandsons this year (shades of Obama!). One of my Korean daughters is married to a white young man, and the other is dating an Hispanic. And the oldest (Tiffani) is due with my first granddaughter in less than a month.
And the interesting thing? None of them think any of that is unusual. They accept it as normal. And when I am with their friends, they also see the world in a far different manner than my generation. (That is not to say the trash talk cannot get rather rough at the Mauldin household at times.)
I find great cause for optimism in that. I am not saying we are in a post-racial world. We are not. Every white man in America should have a black son. It would open your eyes to a world we do not normally see. But it is better, far better, than the world I grew up in. And it is getting still better.
My boys play online video games with kids from all over the world. And the kids from around the world get on the internet and see a much wider world than just their local neighborhoods.
Twenty years ago China was seen as a huge military threat. Now we are worried about them not buying our bonds and becoming an economic power. Niall Ferguson writes about “Chimerica” as two countries joined together in an increasingly tight bond. In 20 years, will Iran be our new best friend? I think it might be, and in much less time than that, as an increasingly young and frustrated population demands change, just as they did 30 years ago. Will it be a smooth transition? Highly unlikely. But it will happen, I think.
I look at my kids and their friends. Are they struggling? Sure. They can’t get enough hours, enough salaries, the jobs they want. They now have kids and mortgages. And dreams. Lots of dreams. That is cause for great optimism. It is when the dreams die that it is time to turn pessimistic.
I believe the world of my kids is going to be a far better world in 20 years. Will China and the emerging world be relatively better off? Probably, but who cares? Do I really begrudge the fact that someone is making their part of the world better? In absolute terms, none of my kids will want to come back to 2009, and neither will I. Most of the doom and gloom types (and they seem to be legion) project a straight-line linear future. They see no progress beyond that in their own small worlds. If you go back to 1975 and assume a linear future, the projections were not all that good. Today you can easily come up with a less-than-rosy future if you make the assumption that things in 20 years will roughly look the same as now. But that also assumes there will not be even more billions of people who now have the opportunity to dream up their own psychic income and work to make it happen.
We live in a world of accelerating change. Things are changing at an ever-increasing pace. The world is not linear, it is curved. And we may be at the beginning of the elbow of that curve. If you assume a linear world, you are going to make less-than-optimal choices about your future, whether it is in your job or investments or life in general.
In the end, life is what you make of it. With all our struggles, as we sat around the table, our family was content, just like 100 million families around the country. Are there those who are in dire distress? Homeless? Sick? Of course, and that is tragic for each of them. And those of us who are fortunate need to help those who are not.
We live in the most exciting times in human history. We are on the verge of remarkable changes in so many areas of our world. Yes, some of them are not going to be fun. I see the problems probably more clearly than most.
But am I going to just stop and say, “What’s the use? The Fed is going to make a mess of things. The government is going to run us into debts to big too deal with? We are all getting older, and the stock market is going to crash?”
Even the most diehard bear among us is thinking of ways to improve his personal lot, even if it is only to buy more gold and guns. We all think we can figure it out or at least try to do so. Some of us will get it right and others sadly will not. But it is the collective individual struggles for our own versions of psychic income, the dance of massive collaboration on a scale the world has never witnessed, that will make our world a better place in the next 20 years.
All that being said, while I am an optimist, I am a cautious and hopefully realistic optimist. I do not think the stock market compounds at 10% a year from today’s valuations. I rather doubt the Fed will figure the exact and perfect path in removing its quantitative easing. I doubt we will pursue a path of rational fiscal discipline in 2010 or sadly even by 2012, although I pray we do. I expect my taxes to be much higher in a few years.
But thankfully, I am not limited to only investing in the broad stock market. I have choices. I can be patient and wait for valuations to come my way. I can look for new opportunities. I can plan to make the tax burden as efficient as possible, and try and insulate myself from the volatility that is almost surely in our future – and maybe even figure out a way to prosper from it.
A pessimist never gets in the game. A wild-eyed optimist will suffer the slings and arrows of boom and inevitable bust. Cautious optimism is the correct and most rewarding path. And that, I hope, is what you see when you read my weekly thoughts.
This week I go to New York to be with Todd Harrison and so many friends at the annual Festivus, put on by the folks from Minyanville. Then the theater on Saturday with Barry and Toni Habib to see Gods of Carnage. Then back home for the rest of the month, turning to book writing and waiting for my granddaughter to appear.
And speaking of psychic income, I remarked to some of the kids the other day that for the first time in my life I have no psychic income. There is no scheme I am working on that will change the world, no dramatic visions of grandeur. Just working on improving what we do in the best ways we can, which should be enough; but for me it is a different feeling. I worried that I was losing my edge, my drive.
“Dad,” said Tiffani, hopefully prophetically, “that just means the best and most exciting thing of all is actually going to happen. Finally.”
I love the future. It is going top be the best thing ever. Have a great week.
Your going to have fun on the ride analyst,
John Mauldin
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John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free Thoughts From the Frontline that goes to over 1 million readers each week. For more information on John or his FREE weekly economic letter go to: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/learnmore
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