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Facebook is making a play for becoming the single handler of your online identity. With the new features and API tools it unveiled last week, the social network could potentially ‘infiltrate’ any website in the world, effectively taking over the web in a sense. And Mozilla has a very similar idea. It too believes that a univers… (read more)

The issue of Sunday liquor sales is still alive at the state Capitol.

With time running out on the way toward the state-mandated adjournment at midnight May 5, supporters have been publishing full-page advertisements this week in favor of Sunday sales.

The Connecticut Food Association and the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, known as DISCUS, have paid for the advertisements that say the legalization would lead to more jobs and more revenue for the state. But the Connecticut Package Stores Association, led by longtime lobbyist Carroll J. Hughes, has been winning the battle for years under the Gold Dome by saying that allowing the sales on Sunday will simply spread out the same volume over seven days instead of six.

With the idea placed as an amendment on various bills, Senate Republican leader John McKinney of Southport said he does not see the issue coming up in the final week.

The Sunday sales are “probably not going to be part of an overall budget solution” as the legislature tackles a projected deficit of $700 million in the next fiscal year, he said.

“It’s an extremely controversial issue,” McKinney said when asked by Capitol Watch in the Capitol press room.

“There are Republicans that support and oppose Sunday sales. There are Democrats that support and oppose Sunday sales,” McKinney said. “My caucus will split. [The Senate Democratic] caucus will split. You don’t end up with a bipartisan budget. That type of a controversial issue is better off for another year, where it can stand on its own merits and not as part of a budget.”

Those favoring Sunday sales have created a web site at www.ENDCTBLUELAWS.org

But Hughes has argued repeatedly that the Sunday liquor prohibition is a liquor law, not a blue law. The blue laws were outlawed years ago.

The legislature’s program review committee staff analyzed the issue late last year, saying that the sales should be allowed.

http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2009/12/program-review-staff-recommend.html

 

Japan is all set to send out a craft in space, powered by solar power. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency will launch the space yacht, using solar sails on 18th May. Accelerated by the sun’s radiation, the Interplanetary Kite-craft will have solar particles bounce off its sails. Known as the Ikaros, the space craft will be the first of its kind to enter into deep space using solar sails.

This simply means that the craft will need no fuel to cruise through space. So long as it is near enough to the sun to catch a particle powered breeze, this sailing space craft will need no fuel whatsoever. The Ikaros sports 46-foot flexible sails, thinner than human hair, equipped with thin-film solar cells that generate power. This technology is sure to revolutionize space travel into a more cleaner and eco-friendly event.

[Popsci]

Fair value is really a simple concept. Given some select information such as dividends, dividend growth, holding period, discount rate and few other inputs, one can easily calculate the fair value of a stock. As with most simple things, the devil is in the details – the inputs must be correct to calculate a reasonable fair value, otherwise, garbage in, garbage out.

Accurately determining free cash flow, dividend growth rates and such on a forward looking basis is no simple task. Most analysts look to a company’s past to help determine how they will behave in the future. I am certainly no exception to that convention. My fair value model was constructed back in 2007 at a time many stocks had already fell from grace. As a result, a large number of companies were trading below fair value based on historical metrics. To reduce this number and focus in on only the best companies, I took an extremely conservative stance with my fair value model.

Calculating Fair Value

As a reminder, I consider the following when calculating fair value:

Avg. High Yield Price: Price calculated by dividing current dividend per share by the average high dividend yield for each of the last 5-years (dividend per share divided by the year’s low share price).

20-Year DCF Price: Price calculated by taking the Net Present Value (NPV) of the next 20 years of dividends and the estimated value of the stock at the end of 20 years.

Avg. P/E Price: Price calculated by multiplying the EPS (trailing twelve months) times the minimum of: 1.) 5-year average of high and low P/Es or 2.) Last years high P/E.

Graham Number: Price calculated by taking the square root of 22.5 times the tangible book value per share times EPS (trailing twelve months). Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor and the father of value investing, developed rules for the defensively screening stocks. This formula uses his principles to calculate the “maximum” price one should pay for the stock. He believed – as a rule of thumb – the product of P/E ratio and price-to-book should not be more than 22.5 (P/E ratio of 15 x price-to-book value of 1.5). The 15 P/E was was a result of Graham wanting his portfolio to have a yield equal yield to that of a AA bond (back then around 7.5%). The inverse of this yield is 1 divided by 7.5%. That works out to 13.3; he rounded up to 15.

Mid-2 Price: Of the four fair value calculations,  “Avg. High Yield Price”,  “20-Year DCF Price”,  “Avg. P/E Price” and “Graham Number”, the highest and lowest fair values are excluded and the remaining two calculations are averaged to calculate the Mid-2 price.

NPV MMA Price: The price where the NPV MMA value equals the NPV MMA target. The basis of NPV MMA value calculation is a hypothetical $1,000 investment in the subject stock and a Money Market Account (MMA) earning a 20 year average rate (I use a 20 year Treasury as a proxy). The value calculated is the net present value (NPV) of the difference between the annual dividend earnings of this investment and the interest income from the MMA over 20 years. Other assumptions include: 1.) dividends grow at a historically calculated rate, 2.) dividends are reinvested, 3.) share price appreciation is not considered, 4.) interest income is reinvested in the MMA. The NPV MMA target is determined based on the number of consecutive years of dividend increases. The formula is: Target = Base – (Years x Increment) + Minimum where Base=3,000, Increment=100, Minimum=500. Thus 0 years of dividend growth yields a $3,500 target and 30 years of growth yields a $500 target.

Historically, I have conservatively taken the lower of the the Mid-2 Price or NPV MMA Price as the stock’s fair value. Over the last year as the market has recovered and companies histories now include some very lean times, the pendulum has swung to the other extreme where very few companies were trading below my conservative calculation of fair value (in most cases driven by a low Mid-2 value).

Changes To The Fair Value Calculation

I have added to my model the ability to calibrate the Fair Value calculation based on where we are within the market cycle. Below are the various options:

Option: 1 = The lower of the Mid-2 price or the NPV MMA price (the historical option).
Option: 2 = Lesser of the Mid-2 price or NPV MMA price + lower of 10% increase or 25% of the difference between Mid-2 price and NPV MMA price.
Option: 3 = same as Opt: 2 except + lower of 20% increase or 50% of the difference.
Option: 4 = same as Opt: 2 except + lower of 30% increase or 75% of the difference.
Option: 5 = The higher of the Mid-2 price or the NPV MMA price.
Option: 6 = Weighted: 25% Mid-2 price + 75% NPV MMA price.

I am currently running with Option 4. It is pointing out some stocks that are still priced well when focusing on their dividend fundamentals, but are trading above their recent lows.

Seven Dividend Stocks Trading Below Fair Value

Here are some stocks that were identified as trading below their fair value:

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) | Analysis | Yield: 3.36%
– Recent Price: $51.20
– Fair Value: $61.24

Kimberly Clark Corp. (KMB) | Analysis | Yield: 4.33%
– Recent Price: $60.93
– Fair Value: $63.86

Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC) | Analysis | Yield: 4.03%
– Recent Price: $33.46
– Fair Value: $38.44

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) | Analysis | Yield: 3.27%
– Recent Price: $53.88
– Fair Value: $57.92

Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF) | Analysis | Yield: 5.23%
– Recent Price: $30.21
– Fair Value: $33.09

Meridian Bioscience Inc. (VIVO) | Analysis | Yield: 3.51%
– Recent Price: $19.38
– Fair Value: $23.32

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) | Analysis | Yield:  2.44%
– Recent Price: $83.27
– Fair Value: $91.57

Like most investors, I prefer to have it all – a great dividend stock at a low price. However, this isn’t always possible. As a dividend investor first and a value investor second, I will always favor dividend fundamentals over fair value when forced to choose. Consider these two quotes by Warren Buffett:

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”

If you make a mistake and pay too much for a great company, eventually time will correct that problem. The same can’t be said for a poor or mediocre company.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, KMB, HGIC, KO. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

Related Posts:

• Increasing Dividend Yield Part VI: Time
• 38 Dividend Securities For A Well-Rounded Asset Allocation
• Federal Reserve To Urge Banks to Stop Paying Dividends
• How To Buy Dividend Stocks At The Bottom
• Four Dividend Stocks Stepping Up In The Downturn

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Japan is all set to send out a craft in space, powered by solar power. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency will launch the space yacht, using solar sails on 18th May. Accelerated by the sun’s radiation, the Interplanetary Kite-craft will have solar particles bounce off its sails. Known as the Ikaros, the space craft will be the first of its kind to enter into deep space using solar sails.

This simply means that the craft will need no fuel to cruise through space. So long as it is near enough to the sun to catch a particle powered breeze, this sailing space craft will need no fuel whatsoever. The Ikaros sports 46-foot flexible sails, thinner than human hair, equipped with thin-film solar cells that generate power. This technology is sure to revolutionize space travel into a more cleaner and eco-friendly event.

[Popsci]

Rumors circulating about big expansion of Greek bailout package. Read more at ForexLive.

Join the conversation about this story »

Well this might sound a bit morbid, but you can now bid farewell to your loved ones in an eco-friendly way. The Resomator is turning the funeral business in UK a shade green. This washing machine like contraption is a smokeless alternative to cremation. Using chemicals, the machine helps decompose the body quickly.

Costing around £300,000, the Resomator is filled up with a mix of water and potassium hydroxide that helps dissolve body tissues and organs speedily. Placed in a sealed silk or wooden coffin, the body is placed on a stainless steel shelf inside the metal cylinder and the chamber is heated to 180 degrees, breaking down the body in less than three hours under extreme pressure. This may sound frightening at first, but it does save the ozone to an extent. And then again, there’s always the burial alternative.

[Dailymail]

When it comes to the PIIGS, Dr. Doom is in full-on doom mode.

Felix Salmon has some good notes on a PIIGS panel from the Milken Global Conference, which included Nouriel Roubini, who is in his wheelhouse when talking about sovereign debt crises.

Nouriel, of course, takes that kind of thinking to its logical conclusion, and kicked off the panel by announcing that it was just in time: “in a few days,” he said, “there might not be a eurozone for us to discuss.” There’s no way that Greece can implement the 10% spending cut it needs to do in order to stop its debt spiralling out of control at current interest rates — and even if it did, the economic effects would be disastrous.

Nouriel’s base case, then, is Argentina 2001: after all, Greece has a much higher debt-to-GDP ratio, much higher deficit-to-GDP ratio, and much higher current-account deficit than Argentina had back then. And if that’s the base case, there’s no way that Greek debt should be trading anywhere near its current levels.

And guess what: Spain is worse than Greece, says Roubini. Ugh.

Now see who’s going to get pounded in a Greece collapse >

Read Felix’s full post here >

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Credit Default Swap Spreads Blowing Out In Greece, Portugal, And Poland
• Faber: It’s Time To Kick Greece Out of The Eurozone
• Thousands Of Greeks Haven’t Paid Property Taxes In Years, And The Government Can’t Make Them

If there’s an ecosystem where things are free (such as, say, the internet) your currency becomes enthusiasm. Quality is important because it gives people a legitimate reason to become excited. Sincerity is what creates the line between real enthusiasm and empty hype.

This sounds like a lame-brain observation, but things are better if creative people produce work that incites excitement in both the creative and the audience. Don’t be shocked if something fails because it lacks fervor and passion. Build those in, if you can. If you can’t, consider starting over.

—Frank Chimero’s Ideas

By Mark Sweney: Yahoo (NSDQ: YHOO) has struck a deal with the Premier League for the UK online highlights for the 2010 to 2013 seasons.

From the start of next season in August, Yahoo, which is in final contract negotiations with the Premier League, will run a five-minute highlights package of every match on Yahoo.co.uk. Highlights will be available from midnight on Sunday after weekend matches and at midnight the same day for midweek fixtures. Virgin Media (NSDQ: VMED) currently have the rights.

“The acquisition of Premier League rights shows how serious Yahoo is about providing the best in video content for our both our users and advertisers,” said Rich Riley, the company’s European managing director.

Yahoo’s deal also includes the right in the UK to syndicate all, or part, of the Premier League highlights content to third parties.

Yahoo in the US has similar deals with big name sports including the NBA basketball, PGA golf, NHL hockey and MLB baseball.

Check out this video on ways to recycle cell phones, batteries and more. Specifically Best Buy will take back most consumer electronics …

Via: SmartPlanet LINK

WASHINGTON–Senate Democrats–for a second time–on Tuesday could not muster enough votes to debate their Wall Street reform measure–with every Republican voting no. Democrats are using the GOP no votes to rally their troops. A third vote is set for Wednesday and Senate Republicans are expected to again vote no.

No matter the GOP reasons for voting no–the White House and the Democrats are using the no votes to hit the GOP as being out of touch after the worst financial meltdown since the Depression.

The Democratic National Committee’s Organizing for America operation–(the DNC absorbed the Obama for President campaign, which is why OFA uses the Obama campaign logo)—- on Tuesday night started sending e-mails to the millions on its mailing list. “OFA is taking an aggressive stance — calling out the opponents of Wall Street reform by name in each state — and ramping up grassroots pressure nationally,” I was told. Also: OFA is planning a Day of Action on financial reform next week.

And on Wednesday morning, the Democratic National Committee released a spot titled “Risky Business” slamming Republicans for “taking the side of big Wall Street banks over the Main Street families.”

The ad runs in Washington and on national cable outlets.

This comes as President Obama on Wednesday delivers a speech on the need for Wall Street reform in Quincy, Ill., the last leg on a “Wall Street to Main Street” Midwest swing– that took him to Iowa and Missouri.

The Tuesday 57-to-41 roll call was not enough to block a filibuster. Democrats needed 60 votes to start floor debate.

below, ad text…

VO: Wall Street’s risky bets nearly sank our economy
CHYRON: Dow Jones Plummets in Early Trading [Washington Post, September 15, 2008]
CHYRON: WORST CRISIS SINCE ’30S, WITH NO END IN SIGHT [The Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2008]
CHYRON: A Financial Drama With No Final Act In Sight [The New York Times, September 14, 2008]

VO: But when it came to Wall Street reform that would protect consumers and prevent future bailouts
CHYRON: But on Wall Street Reform to Protect Consumers and Prevent Bailouts

VO: Every Senate Republican voted no
CHYRON: Every Republican Senator Voted No

VO: Republicans voted to block reform after a fundraiser with Wall Street lobbyists
VIDEO: Bank Lobbyists Huddle For Another Secret Meeting With GOP Senators [Think Progress, 4/22/2010]

VO: Republicans stood by as Wall Street ran wild
CHYRON: Republicans Stood By As Wall Street Ran Wild

VO: Tell Republicans – if they side with Wall Street over Main Street, you won’t be siding with them
CHYRON: TELL REPUBLICANS: If they side with Wall Street over Main Street, you won’t be siding with them.

[DNC DISCLAIMER]

THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 27, 2010

DAILY GUIDANCE AND PRESS SCHEDULE FOR
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 28, 2010

The President will continue the White House to Main Street tour with stops in Missouri and Illinois. In the early afternoon, he will tour POET Biorefining in Macon, Missouri and talk to workers about what they are experiencing during these tough economic times and share ideas for rebuilding our economy in the long term. There will be travel pool coverage of the tour. The President will then deliver remarks and share ideas for rebuilding our economy in the long term. This event is open press.

Following his visit to POET Biorefining, the President will tour a local farm and visit with the family who operates the farm. There will be travel pool coverage.

Later in the afternoon, President Obama will deliver remarks on the urgent need to pass financial reform and will discuss how strong Wall Street reform will protect American families on Main Street at the Oakley Lindsay Civic Center in Quincy, Illinois. This event is open press.

The President will return to Washington, DC in the evening. The arrival on the South Lawn in open press.

In-Town Travel Pool
Wires: AP, Reuters, Bloomberg
Wire Photos: AP, Reuters, AFP
TV Corr & Crew: CNN
Print: Washington Times
Radio: Talk Radio

Out-of-Town Travel Pool
Wires: AP, Reuters, Bloomberg
Wire Photos: AP, Reuters, AFP
TV Corr & Crew: CNN
Print: New York Times

CDT

9:30AM THE PRESIDENT departs Des Moines, Iowa en route Quincy, Illinois
Des Moines International Airport
Open Press

10:15AM THE PRESIDENT arrives in Quincy, Illinois
Quincy Regional Airport
Open Press

12:20PM THE PRESIDENT tours POET Biorefining
Macon, Missouri
Travel Pool Coverage

1:00PM THE PRESIDENT delivers remarks on rebuilding our economy
POET Biorefining, Macon, Missouri
Open Press

2:20PM THE PRESIDENT tours a local farm and visits with the family that operates the farm
Palmyra, Missouri
Travel Pool Coverage

4:00PM THE PRESIDENT delivers remarks on the urgent need to pass Wall Street reform
Oakley Lindsay Civic Center, Quincy, Illinois
Open Press

5:15PM THE PRESIDENT departs Quincy, Illinois en route Andrews Air Force Base
Quincy Regional Airport
Open Press

EDT

7:30PM In-Town Travel Pool Call Time

8:05PM THE PRESIDENT arrives at Andrews Air Force Base
Out-of-Town Travel Pool

8:20PM THE PRESIDENT arrives at the White House
South Lawn
Open Press (Pre-set 7:50PM – Final Gather 8:05PM – North Doors of the Palm Room)

Briefing Schedule

Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton will gaggle aboard Air Force One

##

Lady Gaga gave Polaroid a helping hand with designing the latest range of cameras, but will she be lending her name to their gaming accessories? I can just see her modeling a headset in her next video with Beyonce. More »

Ronald Bailey at Reason – a long time skeptic of peak oil – has a new article looking at some other potential resource extraction peaks (peak lithium, peak neodymium, and peak phosphorus), arguing – correctly in my view – that substitution and recycling can overcome these problems – (Peak Everything ?.

Peak Lithium

Lithium is the element at the heart of the electric car revolution that many green energy enthusiasts are trying to foment. For example, the Chevy Volt, scheduled to be at dealers this fall, will be energized by 400 pounds of lithium ion batteries, plus a gasoline engine to produce electricity to extend the car’s range of travel once the batteries are drained. In 2007, William Tahil, an analyst with the France-based consultancy, Meridian International Research, issued a report that alarmingly concluded that there is “insufficient economically recoverable lithium available in the Earth’s crust to sustain electric vehicle manufacture in the volumes required.” Tahil added, “Depletion rates would exceed current oil depletion rates and switch dependency from one diminishing resource to another.” Not everyone agrees with Tahil’s peak lithium prognostications. …

Even Tahil’s original report argued that there were alternative battery technologies in the works using far more common substances that could substitute for lithium. For example, the Swiss company ReVolt is developing rechargeable zinc-air batteries which hold 300 percent more charge than lithium ion batteries and cost half as much. And then there is Fluidic Energy which claims that it can develop a metal air battery that will hold 11 times the charge of the best lithium ion batteries for less than one-third the cost. A car running on such batteries would have a range of 400 to 500 miles on a single charge. These batteries are made from far more available materials which can be fairly easily recycled.

Peak Neodymium

Neodymium is a rare earth metal used extensively to produce permanent magnets found in everything from computer magnetic disks and cell phones to wind turbines and automobiles. For example, the magnets that drive a Prius hybrid’s electric motor use more than two pounds of neodymium. Interestingly, neodymium magnets were invented in the 1980s to overcome the global cobalt supply shock that occurred as the result of internal warfare in Zaire. Because China can more cheaply produce neodymium than any other country in the world, that country is now the source of 95 percent of the world’s neodymium. …

On the other hand, if neodymium supplies really are a problem, perhaps there is a technical fix. For example, the privately held Chorus Motors has invented and developed an improved AC induction motor that completely eliminates the permanent neodymium magnets to supply the energy needed to accelerate hybrid or electric vehicles. If this technology is widely adopted, it would free up neodymium supplies for other uses and also tend to lower the metal’s price.

Peak Phosphorus

In the 1840s, scientists discovered that plants need the element phosphorus to grow. The phosphorus fertilizer industry grew rapidly, initially by exploiting vast deposits of seabird guano left on oceanic islands. Today phosphate rocks are mined to produce the fertilizer. The Global Phosphorus Research Initiative (GPRI) notes that modern agriculture is dependent on continual inputs of phosphorus fertilizer and that known reserves could be depleted within the next 50 to 100 years. The current issue of Foreign Policy ominously warns that failing to meet the challenge of “peak phosphorus” would mean that “humanity faces a Malthusian trap of widespread famine on a scale that we have not yet experienced.” But unlike petroleum or natural gas, phosphorus, as an element, is not destroyed when it’s used and so could be recovered and recycled.

The folks at the GPRI point out that the phosphorus in just one person’s urine would be close to the amount needed to fertilize the food supply for one person. So why not recycle urine? …

Stanford University economist Paul Romer has observed, “Every generation has perceived the limits to growth that finite resources and undesirable side effects would pose if no new recipes or ideas were discovered. And every generation has underestimated the potential for finding new recipes and ideas. We consistently fail to grasp how many ideas remain to be discovered. The difficulty is the same one we have with compounding: possibilities do not merely add up; they multiply.” The above examples show that while the production of physical supplies of resources may peak, there is no sign that human creativity is about to peak.

The National Association for Manufacturers expects only 30% of the nearly 2 million manufacturing jobs lost during the recent downturn to come back.

Even this won’t really start for another year they say. Their 30% forecast covers the next six years.

Bloomberg:

Most of the hiring will come in 2011 and 2012, David Huether, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers, said yesterday after NAM President John Engler spoke on a job-growth panel at the Milken Conference in Los Angeles.

“I wish there were a silver bullet where we just walk in and just sprinkle this pixie dust,” Ron Bloom, a conference panelist and senior White House adviser for manufacturing policy, said in an interview. “But this is slow, hard work.”

…

“The United States represents 21 percent of the world’s manufacturing output today and we’re still the world’s largest manufacturing economy,” Engler said in an interview. “We ought to be building on that.”

According to Bloomberg, research firm Global Insight forecasts that total U.S. employment (not just manufacturing) will return to its past peak of 138 million jobs not before 2013.

Join the conversation about this story »

(This guest post comes courtesy of the author’s blog)

Are the problems in the global economy really global or are they more localized?  Analysts at JP Morgan say they are local problems and should not derail the global recovery.  Unfortunately for the market bears, they’ve been spot on for well over a year.  JP Morgan says the current problems should be offset by the global rebound:

“Is it local or global? That is the question asked by investors trying to assess the impact of the rising threats to the rally in risky assets. Our view has been, and remains, that these threats—from Chinese tightening to the Greek debt crisis and the global offensive on banks—remain largely local and sectoral in impact. They are offset sufficiently by the global rebound in economic activity and company earnings, keeping intact the rally in risky assets. This has indeed been what we have seen so far this year and over the past 13 months in the global equity rally. The impact of these local fires has been largely the underperformance by the affected regions—Europe and China— without slowing the global rally in risky assets.”

They see the risks of contagion increasing, but remain long for now as the bullish forces at work should continue to overpower localized fears in the near-term:

“At some point, one such local shock will spread and become overwhelming enough to bring risky markets down. Remember that the subprime crisis started as a local shock. We surely do not want to downplay the destructive power of the risk we face, but, at the same time, in the other corner sit the even more powerful bullish forces of the business cycle, company earnings, and the zero return on cash. It is our judgment that while the threats of Greek contagion and regulatory/tax overkill on banks have intensified over the past month, the risk-bullish forces have gathered even more strength, keeping us overall long risky assets.”

JP Morgan has been largely ahead of the game in terms of their economic forecasts and other market participants have been forced to play catch-up over the last few quarters.  They see the recovery continuing into the back half of 2010 as the consumer recovers, industrial production increases and ultimately results in stronger than expected earnings growth:

“Our economists have kept their global 2010 growth forecast in a 3.3%-3.4% range since September. Over the period, the consensus has converged to our view. But the recent upside surprises on activity, and in particular in capital spending, retail demand, and industrial production, are inducing us to recognize clear upside risk, in particular in the US and Japan. Company earnings are looking even more impressive, with recent US earnings announcements already leading to a more than 10% upward revision to the 1Q consensus.”

What does this all mean?  It means JP Morgan sees the risk trade continuing to work favorably as the recovery continues.  Ultimately, they see the S&P 500 hitting 1,300 by year-end:

“The strength of the reporting season reinforces the case for staying long equities. We still see the S&P 500 at 1,300 by year-end but our risk balance has now shifted firmly to the upside.”

Source: JP Morgan

Read more market commentary at The Pragmatic Capitalist >

Join the conversation about this story »

Llega a nosotros el Europestar L5 de Lotus. Después del L3 Proton Gen2 y el Persona esta marca necesitaba urgentemente una berlina grande y poderosa que liderara la flota y lo ha conseguido. Podemos comprobar que el apellido Lotus le sienta a esta marca muy, pero que muy bien.

La nueva apuesta de Europestar es el L5. Como mencionábamos anteriormente la marca necesitaba mostrar en China un buque insignia, un coche grande, poderoso y a ser posible con el apellido Lotus detrás, que siempre trae buenas consecuencias, y este ha sido el resultado.

Los detalles técnicos acerca de este modelo escasean, pero las imágenes dejan ver que el diseño está a la altura de lo que pretendían sus creadores. Además, lo que si se conoce es la motorización que presentará: se trata de un 1.6i 16 v CAMPRO que le proporcionará sin esfuerzo 122 CV.

Europestar pretende empezar la comercialización en septiembre y pretende hacerlo a lo grande, ya que su intención es llegar a las 15.000 unidades anuales. Por ahora vemos que maneras no le faltan, necesitamos más detalles técnicos, pero por ahora la cosa promete.

Vía | Coches-es

Recently released inspector notes charging Upper Big Branch operators with “negligence” on safety issues offer further evidence that the mine owner, while chiefly responsible for conditions inside the mine, wasn’t solely to blame for this month’s deadly blast, according to a number of mine safety experts. Federal regulators, they charge, also dropped the ball by failing to close the mine despite its troubled history of safety violations.

“This is a case not only of the operator thumbing his nose at the strictly legal requirements and regulations,” Ken Hechler, former West Virginia congressman who was lead sponsor of a 1969 law that overhauled mining safety, said this week in a phone interview. “It also involves a failure of the Mine Safety and Health Administration itself to act aggressively against the mine in order to ensure that either the conditions be made safe, as provided in the law, or to toughen the enforcement … to close the mine.”

Virginia-based Massey Energy, which owns the Upper Big Branch, “has a long history of having used every possible loophole to avoid the piling up of fines,” Hechler added, “which, of course, should have given the authority — which is clearly contained in the law — for [MSHA] to have closed that mine.”

A former MSHA manager echoed that sentiment this month, telling TWI that MSHA leaders — notably Joe Main, who heads the agency — haven’t done nearly enough to confront coal companies that show patterns of safety violations.

“[MSHA] was soft-pedaling — staying in the background, keeping a low profile,” the former official said. “And you can’t do that with this industry. You’ve got to use a big stick — especially with Massey.”

The comments arrive a few days after MSHA released inspectors notes charging operators at Upper Big Branch with “high negligence” and “a reckless disregard of care to the miners” just weeks before an explosion there killed 29 miners.

The handwritten notes, which provide further details surrounding the long-list of safety violations racked up at UBB this year, fly directly in the face of recent claims by Massey that safety is the top priority of its operations. Although these specific problems were eventually fixed, the notes could still lend clues as teams of inspectors begin investigating the cause of the blast — and Congress probes charges that Massey’s corporate culture prioritized profits above worker safety.

The inspectors’ notes tell a remarkable tale. One official with the Mine Safety and Health Administration visiting the Upper Big Branch on January 7, for example, found that a ventilation system — designed to flush toxic gases with fresh air pulled from outside — was pushing air in the wrong direction. “In case of an emergency,” the inspector wrote, “the men on this section would not have fresh air in primary escapeway.”

Furthermore, the mine foreman knew about the problem, the inspector noted, but when he informed higher-ups, “He was told not to worry about it.”

The vent problem, which had existed for at least three weeks prior to the inspector’s visit, “will result in fatal injuries from smoke inhalation and inhalation of harmful gases in emergency situations,” the inspector wrote, adding that such an incident is “reasonably likely to occur” in Upper Big Branch because “this mine liberates methane.”

In short, “the operator has shown a reckless disregard of care to the miners on this section and [the] men that use this escapeway,” the inspector wrote. Among those who knew of the problem, the inspector added, were Chris Blanchard and Jamie Ferguson, president and vice president, respectively, of the Performance Coal Company, a Massey subsidiary that operates the Upper Big Branch project.

That wasn’t the only instance. The same inspector, visiting another part of the Upper Big Branch on the same day, found that another vent system was pushing the toxic return air into another escapeway. The superintendent on duty knew of the problem, the inspector noted, but didn’t fix it until the inspector made a fuss.

An accident, the inspector wrote — a reasonably likely event because of the gassy nature of the mine — “will result in fatal injuries.”

“I believe [the] operator has show high negligence [pursuant] to fact of management knowing where problem is and fixing immediately,” the inspector wrote.

There are other examples:

• On January 11, an inspector cited UBB for a misaligned belt that was rubbing another structure to the point that smoke was seen coming off the belt. A resulting accident, in that gassy mine, was deemed “highly likely,” the inspector wrote. The condition had existed for “at least two months.”

• On January 20, an inspector cited a cut in an electrical cable that wasn’t sufficiently sealed. Because the area was wet, workers were at risk of fatal electrocution, the inspector said, adding that such an episode was “reasonable likely if normal mining were to continue.” The section electrician, the inspector wrote, knew of the problem.

The notes also indicate a certain disdain among Massey managers for the MSHA officials. One company supervisor, an inspector noted on January 7, “feels as though MSHA personnel come here expecting the worst and not giving them enough benefit of the doubt. I explained to him that I would be writing what I saw.”

Appearing at a Senate mine-safety hearing Tuesday, Jeff Harris, a former Massey miner, gave a damning account of conditions in the company’s mines — testimony that was strikingly similar to accounts given by other former Massey employees.

“When we got to a section to mine coal, they’d tear down the ventilation curtain,” Harris told lawmakers. “The air was so thick you could hardly see in front of you. When an MSHA inspector came to the section, we’d hang the curtain, but as soon as the inspector left, the curtain came down again.”

Massey, for its part, has denied the claims that it doesn’t take the safety of its workers seriously — a position the company was defending as recently as this week. “Our corporate culture today stresses three priorities: safety, ethics and excellence,” reads a letter given to reporters Monday. “Massey Energy’s members are among the best trained, most productive and safest miners in the world.”

The company’s website reiterates that message, claiming that its “formula for success” is based on an “S-1, P-2″ model: safety first, production second. It’s a formula that some former employees are quick to dispute.

“That’s bullshit,” Chuck Nelson, a former Massey miner who’s since become an environmental activist with the Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition, said of Massey’s safety-first claims. “You do what you’re told.”

Bolstering the critics’ claims, MSHA officials announced Tuesday that sections of three other Massey mines were shut down in recent weeks after the agency received anonymous complaints about safety concerns there. One of those withdrawals came after the Upper Big Branch explosion.

With Massey seemingly back to business as usual, Hechler said, Congress will have to play a role if policymakers hope to prevent the next mining disaster.

“Obviously, the chief burden should be on the company,” Hechler said. “But this process of writing good laws that are not enforced somehow has to be toughened to require the enforcement.”

Billmon has an article looking at the strange process going on within the conservative echo chamber, with mindless loyalty commanding an ever higher premium and even nuts like David Frum beginning to get ejected from the circle of trust for minor breaches of cult discipline – The “Epistemic Closing” of the Conservative Mind. Billmon also had another column recently looking at some disinformation tactics being used lately (and lapped up by some of the dumber sections of the media, like The New York Times) – Spock with a Beard.

One of the more striking features of the contemporary conservative movement is the extent to which it has been moving toward epistemic closure. Reality is defined by a multimedia array of interconnected and cross promoting conservative blogs, radio programs, magazines, and of course, Fox News. Whatever conflicts with that reality can be dismissed out of hand because it comes from the liberal media, and is therefore ipso facto not to be trusted. (How do you know they’re liberal? Well, they disagree with the conservative media!) This epistemic closure can be a source of solidarity and energy, but it also renders the conservative media ecosystem fragile.

Julian Sanchez
Frum, Cocktail Parties, and the Threat of Doubt
March 26, 2010

An epistemic community may consist of those who accept one version of a story, or one version of validating a story . . . In philosophy of science and systems science the process of forming a self-maintaining epistemic community is sometimes called a mindset. In politics, a tendency or faction is usually described in very similar terms . . . Some consider forming an epistemic community a deep human need, and ultimately a mythical or even religious obligation.

Wikipedia entry
Epistemic Community

A few weeks ago I pointed out that the conservative propaganda machine was resorting to a standard “disinformation” technique to try to negate (or at least blunt) the PR damage done by the teabagger fit of rage following the passage of health care reform.

The specific disinformation tactic (which I like to call “Spock With a Beard”) essentially consists of creating a false narrative in which black is white, up is down — and, in this particular case, where liberal Democrats are “inciting” violent threats against peace-loving Republicans like GOP Minority Whip Eric Cantor by, well, making a big fuss about violent threats from angry teabaggers.

By disinformation, I meant:

the systematic creation and dissemination of false narratives . . . aimed at constructing an entire alternative reality — one in which the truth can find no foothold because it conflicts just not with a specific falsehood, but with the entire fabric of the false reality that has been created.

Since then, I’ve noticed the conservative fondness for propaganda methods that would not be out of place in Orwell’s Minitrue (oldspeak translation: Ministry of Truth) is also drawing attention from other observers — including, at least obliquely, some on the right.

Paul Krugman, who is rarely oblique about anything or anyone, points the Orwellian finger at GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, for his stubborn insistance that fiercely defending the interests of huge Wall Street banks is actually a way of preventing future government bailouts.

Has there ever been a time in US political history when one of the two major political parties was so addicted to doublethink, so committed to pretending that it’s advocating the opposite of its actual agenda?

To which, one can only reply: Do the years 2001 through 2008 count? Or are the Rove Administration’s two terms in office still too fresh to be treated as history?

But what really caught my attention was a blog entry by fellow New York Times columnist Ross Douthat (posted, coincidentally or not, on the same day as Krugman’s question) which managed, in Douthat’s pretentious yet obtuse way, to talk all the way around the current state of the conservative “mind” without ever acknowledging, much less addressing, the fact that this “mind” is, to a large and ever-increasing degree, a propaganda construct, and thus not really a “mind” at all — more like an anti-mind.

But, fortunately, Douthat also linked to a much more interesting take from the libertarian writer Julian Sanchez, who digs a bit closer to the truth (although not quite all the way there) in the quote cited at the beginning of this diary.

Sanchez’s post, which appears to have caused a buzz in both left and right Blogistan (I’m usually late to party these days) was in reaction to the summary excommunication of David Frum, banished from the American Enterprise Institute for his apostasy on health care reform. (It’s a telling sign that the AEI’s commissars deported Frum to the conservative version of Siberia not for dissenting on the substance of health care — he didn’t, really — but rather for questioning the political line, i.e. extreme stonewalling, adopted by the GOP. Truly, the party must always be right. …

All in all, Sanchez paints a pretty accurate, not to mention damning, picture of the modern conservative ideological machine and its increasingly Orwellian methods — both of message propagation and social control. But, apart from the China reference, he more or less elides the question of intentionality. In Sanchez’s telling (and even more so in Douthat’s retelling) the current withered, sectarian and paranoid state of the conservative “mind” is something that just happened — a bottom-up social trend, not a top-down directive.

This is partially true, I guess, in the sense that a formal Republican Politburo does not exist (and even if it did, its members most likely would be found chilling at a lesbian bondage club, not steering a high-tech dictatorship from the bowels of a fortress-like ministry.)

But it’s also not true, in the sense that the conservative propaganda machine referenced at the start of this diary does exist, and has shown a relatively high degree of self-awareness and top-down control — as witnessed, for example, by the infamous daily guidance memos circulated within Fox News by vice president John Moody (“Let’s be on the lookout for any statements from the Iraqi insurgents, who must be thrilled at the prospect of a Dem-controlled Congress.”) and the talking points distributed directly to Fox commentators by the White House in Rovian times).

It may not qualify as a bona fide Inner Party, but it is a party cadre, and it knows its business. (Figuring out exactly where and how and from whom it learned that business would make for a fascinating social study — or possibly a legal one).

The business, of course, is disinformation: the creation of a closed loop of emotions, beliefs and pseudo-facts that buttress, at all times and all points, the party line.

However, the more I study this, the more I’m convinced the primary goal of the exercise isn’t to convince the broader public, whom I think the Rovians essentially view as the equivalent of the “proles” of 1984 — dull lumps of unthinking flesh who, nine times in 10, will follow the loudest, most simplistic and most passionate voice they hear.

The goal of conservative disinformation, then, is to provide that voice by creating the kind of “mind” (e.g. epistemic community) among the true conservative faithful that Sanchez is talking about: one impervious to reason, logic and — most importantly of all — factual evidence. The growing nervousness of some conservative intellectuals, like Douthat and Frum, about this project perhaps reflects the dawning realization that they are basically irrelevant to its success.

The creation of a closed mind is, of course, a prerequisite for successful doublethink (defined as the ability to hold two diametrically opposed beliefs at the same time, and to immediately change one or both of those beliefs when instructed). By their very nature, doublethink constructs tend to be fragile. They have a low tolerance for contact with non-managed reality — much less open debate (thus the need, in 1984, for the constant writing and rewriting of history, to ensure a seamless and timeless continuity to the party line).

But the real breakthrough discovery by the conservative propaganda machine (Fox News, in particular) is that despite this inherent fragility, it doesn’t take an Orwellian police state to create and maintain the kind of self-contained, artificial consciousness that doublethink requires.