Blog

  • Credit Default Swap Spreads Warn Of Upcoming Rout For Financial Stocks (C, MET, JPM, GE, AIG)

    Despite the recent upward trajectory for U.S. stocks lately, credit default swap spreads for key U.S. financial stocks soared during just the last week.

    Reuters:

    Credit default swaps, contracts that insure against debt defaults, are treating debt-laden borrowers ranging from Citigroup (C) to MetLife Inc (MET) as though they were rated at junk status, a sign of lingering fears of the risks of heavy debt.

    Credit insurance costs on major U.S. banks have risen by about 17 percent overall this week, according to data from Tradition Asiel Securities.

    JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) swaps are up nearly 20 percent, while swaps on the finance arm of General Electric Co (GE) are up 11 percent, according to Markit Intraday.

    Note General Electric is basically a financial stock thanks to its massive financial unit, whose horrible performance tanked the stock during the crisis, and is the reason the stock is still well below past highs.

    Financial stocks have underperformed the market in the last month, despite past outperformance. In the last week they both underperformed and began to register negative absolute returns as well. The U.S. Financial Services sector fell 2.06% last week according to Morningstar versus a -0.66% median drop for all sectors.

    The chart below shows the relative underperformance for financials on both a 1-month and 1-week time frame.

    Chart

    If the recent surge in default concerns for U.S. financial stocks, as exhibited by the CDS market, are valid, it could be U.S. financial stocks are just beginning to underperform the market. That’s because bond holders ultimately have first claim over equity holders, thus if bond holders are worrying that their securities could be worthless, then equity holders should be twice as worried. If the CDS market moves last week are valid.

    We own shares of GE and AIG, and will be monitoring the situation.

    Note: The author owns shares of GE and AIG. Investors the author speaks with may have long or short positions in stocks, options, or bonds related to any of the companies mentioned.

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Green Party Nominates Candidates For Attorney General, Comptroller, Treasurer, Secretary Of The State

    The Green Party of Connecticut nominated a slate of candidates Saturday for the November election for attorney general, comptroller, treasurer, and secretary of the state.

    Based on state law, the party has ballot lines for 2010 for those statewide positions. But since the party lacked the necessary 1 percent of the vote in the 2006 governor’s race, the party does not have an automatic ballot line for governor in 2010.

    For attorney general, Stephen Fournier – a Hartford attorney with 30 years of active practice at the bar – gained the party’s nomination.

    For secretary of the state, longtime candidate Michael DeRosa of Wethersfield accepted the party’s nod. DeRosa ran in 2006, but he was unable to get into a debate against Democrat Susan Bysiewicz.

    David Bue, an investment adviser from Westport, will be the candidate for treasurer against Democratic incumbent Denise Nappier, while Colin Bennet of Westbrook has the party’s support for comptroller in the race against longtime Democratic incumbent Nancy Wyman.

    Gubernatorial candidate Cliff Thornton ran on the Green Party line in 2006 and captured 9,585 votes, which translates to 0.85 percent – just short of the 1 percent threshold. He polled ahead of Joseph Zdonczyk of the Concerned Citizens Party, who received 0.50 percent of the vote. Republican M. Jodi Rell won the race with 63.2 percent, compared to 35.42 percent for Democrat John DeStefano of New Haven. Thornton and his campaign manager, Ken Krayeske, fought fiercely to debate Rell and DeStefano in 2006, but it never happened.

    Tim McKee, a longtime Green Party spokesman, said before the convention that the party hoped to have 12 to 20 candidates for the state legislature, as well as Congressional races. The party has ballot lines in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Congressional districts because they have reached the necessary voting levels for ballot access. The Green Party is not on the ballot in areas where the party has less strength – the 4th Congressional district in Fairfield County and the 5th Congressional district in Litchfield County.

    The party’s meeting Saturday was held at the Portland Senior Center on Waverly Avenue in Portland.

     

  • Kristen Stewart Bollywood Debut

    Kristen Stewart, best known for her role as Isabella Swan in The Twilight Saga franchise, will reportedly be making her Bollywood debut in a English-language, Romeo & Juliet-inspired romantic drama premiering in Indian cinemas later this year.


  • Will Military Commissions Under Obama Differ From the Bush Era?

    President Obama and Omar Khadr

    President Obama and Omar Khadr (WDCpix, The Toronto Star/ZUMApress.com)

    Starting this week, something will happen that was never supposed to when Barack Obama took the oath of office. A military commission meeting at Guantanamo Bay nearly five months after Obama said the detention facility would cease to exist will hold a pre-trial hearing for Omar Khadr, a Canadian citizen captured by U.S. forces in Afghanistan in 2002 and accused of throwing a grenade that killed a U.S. soldier. At the end of the hearing, it will likely be possible to tell whether Obama’s changes to the military commissions created and advocated by George W. Bush — and most congressional Republicans — are substantive or cosmetic.

    Image by: Matt Mahurin

    Image by: Matt Mahurin

    Khadr, a teenager when initially detained, has been held for nearly half his life at a facility that the Obama administration has pledged to close. He will be tried in a legal venue that Obama rejected as a Senator and embraced, in reformed fashion, as president. What happens this week at Guantanamo will determine whether Obama’s pledge that the new, revised military commissions can deliver internationally-recognized justice is meaningful: the pre-trial hearing in Khadr’s case will provide the first in-depth examination of whether Khadr’s treatment in U.S. custody amounts to torture; will determine whether prosecutors can use evidence against him acquired under abusive, coercive circumstances that civilian courts would never allow; and whether additional statements made by Khadr in subsequent and less-coercive circumstances are fair game or inextricable from his overall abuse.

    On November 7, 2008, three days after Obama won the presidency, Khadr’s military lawyers introduced a motion to suppress evidence commission prosecutors sought to produce that came from Khadr’s interrogations in Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay. Under the commissions, evidence obtained under torture cannot be used, but the scope of the commissions’ allowance for coercively-obtained testimony remains largely unclear. Since their creation in 2002, the commissions have only produced three convictions, two of which were the result of plea deals; the Supreme Court has twice ruled that the commissions provide insufficient due process rights for defendants.

    Khadr’s attorneys charge that the teenaged detainee underwent over 40 interrogations in 2002 at Bagram Air Field in Afghanistan after being shot and suffering shrapnel wounds in a battle with U.S. forces in July 2002 in the eastern Afghan province of Khost. During those interrogations, Khadr was given limited pain medication; had his head hooded while “interrogators brought barking dogs into the interrogation room”; was placed in stress positions despite his gunshot and shrapnel wounds; and was threatened with rape. After 90 days, U.S. military officials flew him to Guantanamo Bay, where he was again placed in stress positions; had his hair torn out; threatened again with rape; and was even used as “a human mop” by military police after he urinated on the floor of his interrogation room after being placed in stress positions for a prolonged period of time.

    Information that emerged from those interrogation sessions — basically, what Khadr told his interrogators while being tortured — comprises a substantial portion of the prosecution’s case against him. It isn’t clear how much of the government’s case against Khadr relies on what he told his interrogators after his abusive treatment. The government will call witnesses who will attest to seeing Khadr throw the grenade that killed Sgt. First Class Christopher J. Speer. (At least one, Sgt. Layne Morris, has come forward in the press.) And the government will probably also seek to introduce statements Khadr made that it maintains were not the result of torture. But Khadr’s lawyers contended in their November 2008 motion that “all statements made by Mr. Khadr subsequent to any statement he made in response to coercive interrogation must also be suppressed as fruit of the poisoned tree,” a legal concept holding that the taint of improperly acquired evidence extends to any secondary evidence it produced.

    It’s a crucial question for the military commissions. Every detainee who tried before the commissions encountered periods where they were harshly interrogated but then later faced less-coercive interviews, “so this is a real test case for the viability of other prosecutions,” said David Frakt, a lieutenant colonel in the Air Force Reserve judge-advocate general corps who used to be defense counsel for Mohammed Jawad, another juvenile held at Guantanamo Bay. For instance, if Khalid Shaikh Mohammed and the other 9/11 conspirators who were initially held in undisclosed CIA prisons are brought back to military commissions, Khadr’s hearing may determine whether everything they have told their interrogators — even long after being abused — is inadmissible before the commissions. To Jennifer Turner, a human-rights researcher with the ACLU who will travel to Guantanamo Bay to observe the Khadr hearing, if the judge rules that Khadr’s statements to his interrogators can be used against him, “it will show the military commissions under Obama are no different than those under Bush.”

    Indeed, it is because of Obama that the issue has remained unsettled. Upon taking office in January 2009, Obama issued executive orders banning enhanced interrogation; vowing to close Guantanamo Bay within a year; and suspending the military commissions while his administration decided how it would deal with the approximately 240 Guantanamo detainees it inherited from the Bush administration. That suspension, coupled with Senator Obama’s objections to the commissions on constitutional grounds, raised hopes among civil libertarians that the administration would ultimately scrap its predecessors’ ad hoc approach to terrorism prosecutions.

    Instead, in a May 2009 speech, Obama pledged to reform the commissions, not abandon them. Among the reforms he promised was to “no longer permit the use of evidence — as evidence statements that have been obtained using cruel, inhuman, or degrading interrogation methods.” By October, Congress passed and Obama signed the Military Commissions Act of 2009. Section 948(r) indeed enshrines the ban on statements made owing to those methods. But it gives judges leeway to enter into evidence “other statements of the accused… only if the military judge finds” that they are indeed voluntary.

    And that’s where Khadr’s defense motion comes in. While there have been at least two other pre-trial procedural hearings since Obama opted to retain the commissions, none have had the significance of Khadr’s. There are ten days’ worth of hearings scheduled for the prosecution and the defense to tussle over the motion to suppress and what the Military Commissions Act of 2009 requires for it. The Washington Independent will be at Guantanamo Bay for the proceedings, and will provide frequent reports — in blog posts, stories, photo and video — about what they determine for the future of the military commissions in the age of Obama.

    There are at least two additional complicating factors. First is that while the commissions have a new law authorizing them, the military has yet to issue a new manual for officers of the court to understand how the procedures under the 2009 law are to be implemented. “If you go to the website for the military commissions,” noted Air Force Col. Morris Davis, a former chief prosecutor for the commissions, “there is no information on who is heading up the military commissions, no information about a new Manual for Military Commissions that implements the changes Congress made in late 2009, and no information about revised Rules for Military Commissions.” As a result, Davis said, “it appears we’re still trying to lay the tracks after the train has left the station, which is no way to run a railroad or a criminal justice system.”

    Maj. Tanya Bradsher, a spokeswoman for the commissions, said that “a revised Manual will be issued shortly,” but added that the manual was less important than the law. “The standards for the admissibility of statements are set out in the Military Commissions Act of 2009, and any procedural or evidentiary rules cannot change the standards set by Congress,” Bradsher said.

    Frakt said it isn’t that simple. “The military commission rules of evidence have been substantially changed by the Military Commissions Act of 2009, particularly with regard to the standards to be applied to determining the admissibility of a statement,” he said. “The Manual will have significant additional guidance and discussion, because it’s the implementing regulations for this. It’s possible the judge will gather all the evidence and simply sit around and wait for the Manual to come out before issuing a ruling.” In terms of actually arguing the motion, though, “it’s still unclear what rules apply.”

    A second complication is how much detail about Khadr’s treatment a judge will allow the outside world to see. There has never before been a two-week court session to examine, in large part, whether the treatment a detainee suffered in a U.S. facility amounts to “cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment,” the standard in the Military Commissions Act for inadmissibility. “This will be one of the first really in-depth looks into the treatment of detainees in the early days of the war on terror,” Frakt said. “There are going to be a lot of press and observers [at Guantanamo]. It’s going to be a nightmare for the government if they have to constantly close the hearing to talk about things that are embarrassing to the government.”

    Davis, the former chief military commissions prosecutor, holds little sympathy for Khadr, whom the government says a videotape shows emplanting improvised explosive devices in Afghanistan. (The video does not implicate him in the death of Sgt. Speer.) But he said his problem was with the Obama’s claim that it needs to keep the options of both federal courts and military commissions to handle terrorism prosecutions, a claim that struck him as both politically motivated and unjust.

    “It’s too bad that the Obama administration is back on its heels in a defensive crouch, afraid to go toe-to-toe with the Cheney right-wing fanatics, and continues to try to have it both ways with the option of military commissions and trials in federal courts still in play,” Davis said. “Hopefully, at some point they’ll grow a pair and make a choice, but this double standard where we’ll give a detainee as much justice as we can and still ensure we get a conviction shows how hypocritical we are when it comes to the rule of law. We talk the talk, but we don’t walk the walk.”

  • Cluedo 1.26.52 for Windows Mobile reviewed

    Remember that old board game your parents would make you sit down and play sometimes when you have relatives round? Well, throw in some style, cartoony graphics and interesting gameplay and you’ve got CLUEDO for Windows Mobile.

    Read the rest of the review and see part 2 of the video at BestWindowsMobileApps.com here.


  • Neanderthal Linkage Uncovered in human DNA

    This question has been on folks minds for over a decade now and we seem to be answering it in the affirmative.
    The only thing that I would add to the discussion is the point that the Neanderthal life way was certainly that of hunter gatherers operating in small hunting bands.
    Our strength was in our ability to create larger bands, first exploiting fisheries and eventually agricultural land.  Thus intermarriage would soon eliminate any smaller separate species fairly smoothly.
    I expect that we may in time sort out the two genomes and develop a clear understanding of their capabilities, though I am sure that this will be a source of surprises.
    In the end, they did not go extinct so much as become tamed and adapted to the human life way which simply seems far too likely.  The only real problem was the possibility of genetic incompatibility.
    We may all be a little bit Neanderthal as study finds species interbred twice with humans

    Last updated at 4:34 PM on 22nd April 2010
    It won’t come as a surprise to anyone wandering around Britain‘s city centres late on a Friday night. But scientists have discovered that most people have a little bit of Neanderthal man in them.
    A major DNA study suggests that our ancestors interbred with the Neanderthals at least twice tens of thousands of years ago  – and that their genes have been carried down the millennia ever since.
    The discovery adds to the mystery surrounding the Neanderthals, an offshoot of the human family tree who vanished in Europe around 25,000 years ago.
    A new study suggests that most of us have some Neanderthal genes in our DNA. Scientists believe our ancestors may have bred twice with the extinct species
    Some researchers have argued that the Neanderthals were driven to extinction by modern humans. But others say the two species merged.
    The new findings come from a genetic analysis of nearly 2,000 people from around the world.
    Dr Jeffrey Long, a genetic anthropologist at the University of New Mexico, who carried out the study, said: ‘It means Neanderthals didn’t completely disappear.’
    He added: ‘There is a little bit of Neanderthal left over in almost all humans.’ 
    Many scientists believe that modern humans evolved in Africa between 200,000 and 100,000 years ago. Our ancestors left Africa around 60,000 years ago and migrated around the world – replacing other branches of the family tree which had left Africa earlier – including the Neanderthals.
    By 25,000 years ago the Neanderthals had vanished from Europe.
    Some experts believe they interbred with modern humans, others that they were driven to extinction by changing climate or competition for food.
    The latest study looked at DNA from 1,983 people living in Africa, European, Asia and the Americas.
    Scientists, led by Dr Sarah Joyce at the University of Mexico, then created an “evolutionary tree” to explain how and when differences in the DNA between people from around the world appeared.
    She found that the best explanation was if there were two periods of interbreeding between modern humans and another human species – and that Neanderthals were the only likely candidate.
    One period of interbreeding occurred around 60,000 years ago in the eastern Mediterranean, the other around 45,000 years ago in eastern Asia.
    The two events happened after our ancestors migrated out of Africa to colonise the rest of the world. The researchers found evidence of interbreeding between Neanderthals and modern Africans – supporting the theory.
    The findings were presented at the American Association of Physical Anthropologists conference in New Mexico and have triggered huge excitement among experts in human evolution.
    Dr Noah Rosenberg, an anthropological geneticist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, told the journal Nature: ‘They are onto something.’
    The findings support scientists who believe there is evidence of interbreeding in fossils. 
    Neanderthals had thick set features and heavy foreheads. They were around six inches shorter on average than modern people, but their brains were 20 per cent bigger.
    In recent years, scientists have found evidence that they were more sophisticated than their popular image, and may have developed language.
    They used flint and stone tools, and were excellent hunters. They supplemented their diet of deer, bison, boar and bear with seal, fish, shellfish, nuts, grains and plants.
    It may not take long for the new theory to be proved.
    Other researchers from the Max Planck Institute, led by Svante Pääbo, completed the first draft of the complete  Neanderthal DNA last year. 
    The results are expected to be published soon and may shed more light on breeding between the two species.

    Read more:

     http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1268003/Neanderthals-humans-interbred-twice-scientists.html#ixzz0m7JlRDMW

  • Lindsay Lohan Throws Glass At Samantha Ronson; Gets Banned From LA Hotspot Trousdale


    Another day, another soap opera saga featuring washed-up starlet Lindsay Lohan….

    Lindsay Lohan’s having a tough time ditching her rep as a real-life “Mean Girl:” Word on The Snitch Circuit has it that the ex-A-lister has been banned from Los Angeles hotspot Trousdale after hurling a glass across a crowed dancefloor at former girlfriend Samantha Ronson.

    Lohan, 23, was asked to leave the following the incident with the celebrity spinner — which left the DJ “really shaken up” on Friday night.

    Lindsay and Sam dated on and off for 18 months before finally calling time on their romance in 2009. The love affair was peppered with Twitter spats between the two, allegations of cheating, and rumors of Lohan’s ongoing drug use.

    “Samantha was DJing and went to sit with her friends when Lindsay stormed over and threw a glass at her head. Glass threw everywhere, and Samantha looked really shaken up. The club owner asked Lindsay to leave and was overheard saying she’ll never come back,” says a spywitness, who watched in horror as LiLo attacked Sam with the glass.

    Despite the incident Samantha, 32, continued to party, and later wrote about the incident on twitter.

    “Just got a glass thrown at my head….. Hmmm- wonder who did it????(sic)”

    Last week, Lindsay accused Samantha of spitting in her face during the 2010 Coachella Music Festival. When questioned about why her actress ex would throw a glass, Samantha told X17 Online: “I don’t know, she’s an angry human being.”

    The attempted assault comes at the end of a tough week for Lindsay; mere days after her estranged dad staged an Old Apache-style police raid on her crib and LAPD snitches named her a suspect in the theft of a friend’s $35,000 Rolex.


  • The Beholden State

    A new form of tyranny.
    The history of power has been tyranny.  This story informs us how deep and the roots are now placed in California.  A union stranglehold preserves entitlement for a select class of union members with unconstrained greed and abuse.
    This exact mentality has snuffed out industries year after year.  It has recently snuffed out a large part of the US auto industry which is now passing through another cycle of downsizing.
    In the meantime down the road, Toyota grabs business because they do not have legacy costs.
    The industrial union movement has downsized hugely from its heyday just after the Second World War.  That happened because it consistently refused to compete directly except through protection.
    It is now making government itself economically non competitive and we have in California the worst example.  The tax base has shrunken and this means much less to go around. 
    Since the unions are clearly in charge, we can expect the widows and orphans to be jettisoned first.  Obviously something must break.
    I would start by outsourcing the entire prison system to Mexico.  Then take a long look at everything else.
    This article is reprinted from City Journal.
    The camera focuses on an official of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), California’s largest public-employee union, sitting in a legislative chamber and speaking into a microphone. “We helped to get you into office, and we got a good memory,” she says matter-of-factly to the elected officials outside the shot. “Come November, if you don’t back our program, we’ll get you out of office.’
    The video has become a sensation among California taxpayer groups for its vivid depiction of the audacious power that public-sector unions wield in their state. The unions’ political triumphs have molded a California in which government workers thrive at the expense of a struggling private sector. The state’s public school teachers are the highest-paid in the nation. Its prison guards can easily earn six-figure salaries. State workers routinely retire at 55 with pensions higher than their base pay for most of their working life. Meanwhile, what was once the most prosperous state now suffers from an unemployment rate far steeper than the nation’s and a flood of firms and jobs escaping high taxes and stifling regulations. This toxic combination—high public-sector employee costs and sagging economic fortunes—has produced recurring budget crises in Sacramento and in virtually every municipality in the state.
    How public employees became members of the elite class in a declining California offers a cautionary tale to the rest of the country, where the same process is happening in slower motion. The story starts half a century ago, when California public workers won bargaining rights and quickly learned how to elect their own bosses—that is, sympathetic politicians who would grant them outsize pay and benefits in exchange for their support. Over time, the unions have turned the state’s politics completely in their favor. The result: unaffordable benefits for civil servants; fiscal chaos in Sacramento and in cities and towns across the state; and angry taxpayers finally confronting the unionized masters of California’s unsustainable government.
    California’s government workers took longer than many of their counterparts to win the right to bargain collectively. New York City mayor Robert Wagner started a national movement back in the late 1950s when he granted negotiating rights to government unions, hoping to enlist them as allies against the city’s Tammany Hall machine. The movement intensified in the early sixties, after President John F. Kennedy conferred the right to bargain on federal workers. In California, a more politically conservative environment at the time, public employees remained without negotiating power through most of the sixties, though they could join labor associations. In 1968, however, the state legislature passed the Meyers-Milias-Brown Act, extending bargaining rights to local government workers. Teachers and other state employees won the same rights in the seventies.
    These legislative victories happened at a time of surging prosperity. California’s aerospace industry, fueled by the Cold War, was booming; investments in water supply and infrastructure nourished the state’s agribusiness; cheaper air travel and a famously temperate climate burnished tourism. The twin lures of an expanding job market and rising incomes pushed the state’s population higher, from about 16 million in 1960 to 23 million in 1980 and nearly 30 million by 1990. This expanding population in turn led to rapid growth in government jobs—from a mere 874,000 in 1960 to 1.76 million by 1980 and nearly 2.1 million in 1990—and to exploding public-union membership. In the late 1970s, the California teachers’ union boasted about 170,000 members; that number jumped to about 225,000 in the early 1990s and stands at 340,000 today.
    The swelling government payroll made many California taxpayers uneasy, eventually encouraging the 1978 passage of Proposition 13 (see page 30), the famous initiative that capped property-tax hikes and sought to slow the growth of local governments, which feed on property taxes. Government workers rightly saw Prop. 13 as a threat. “We’re not going to just lie back and take it,” a California labor leader told the Washington Post after the vote, adding that Prop. 13 had made the union “more militant.” The next several years proved him right. In 1980 alone, unionized employees of California local governments went on strike 40 times, even though doing so was illegal. And once the Supreme Court of California sanctioned state and local workers’ right to strike in 1985—something that their counterparts in most other states still lack—the unions quickly mastered confrontational techniques like the “rolling strike,” in which groups of workers walk off jobs at unannounced times, and the “blue flu,” in which public-safety workers call in sick en masse.
    But in post–Proposition 13 California, strikes were far from the unions’ most fearsome weapons. Aware that Proposition 13 had shifted political action to the state capital, three major blocs—teachers’ unions, public-safety unions, and the Service Employees International Union, which now represents 350,000 assorted government workers—began amassing colossal power in Sacramento. Over the last 30 years, they have become elite political givers and the state’s most powerful lobbying factions, replacing traditional interest groups and changing the balance of power. Today, they vie for the title of mightiest political force in California.
    Consider the California Teachers Association. Much of the CTA’s clout derives from the fact that, like all government unions, it can help elect the very politicians who negotiate and approve its members’ salaries and benefits. Soon after Proposition 13 became law, the union launched a coordinated statewide effort to support friendly candidates in school-board races, in which turnout is frequently low and special interests can have a disproportionate influence. In often bitter campaigns, union-backed candidates began sweeping out independent board members. By 1987, even conservative-leaning Orange County saw 83 percent of board seats up for grabs going to union-backed candidates. The resulting change in school-board composition made the boards close allies of the CTA.
    But with union dues somewhere north of $1,000 per member and 340,000 members, the CTA can afford to be a player not just in local elections but in Sacramento, too (and in Washington, for that matter, where it’s the National Education Association’s most powerful affiliate). The CTA entered the big time in 1988, when it almost single-handedly led a statewide push to pass Proposition 98, an initiative—opposed by taxpayer groups and Governor George Deukmejian—that required 40 percent of the state’s budget to fund local education. To drum up sympathy, the CTA ran controversial ads featuring students; in one, a first-grader stares somberly into the camera and says, “Pay attention—today’s lesson is about the school funding initiative.” Victory brought local schools some $450 million a year in new funding, much of it discretionary. Unsurprisingly, the union-backed school boards often used the extra cash to fatten teachers’ salaries—one reason that California’s teachers are the country’s highest-paid, even though the state’s total spending per student is only slightly higher than the national average. “The problem is that there is no organized constituency for parents and students in California,” says Lanny Ebenstein, a former member of the Santa Barbara Board of Education and an economics professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara. “No one says to a board of education, ‘We want more of that money to go for classrooms, for equipment.’ ”
    With its growing financial strength, the CTA gained the ability to shape public opinion. In 1996, for instance, the union—casting covetous eyes on surplus tax revenues from the state’s economic boom—spent $1 million on an ad campaign advocating smaller classes. Californians began seeing the state’s classrooms as overcrowded, according to polls. So Governor Pete Wilson earmarked some three-quarters of a billion dollars annually to cut class sizes in kindergarten through third grade. The move produced no discernible improvements in student performance, but it did require a hiring spree that inflated CTA rolls and produced a teacher shortage. (The union drew the line, however, when it faced the threat of increased accountability. Two years later, when Wilson offered funds to reduce class sizes even more but attached the money to new oversight mechanisms, the CTA spent $6 million to defeat the measure, living up to Wilson’s assessment of it as a “relentless political machine.”)
    During this contentious period, the CTA and its local affiliates learned to play hardball, frequently shutting down classes with strikes. The state estimated that in 1989 alone, these strikes cost California students collectively some 7.2 million classroom days. Los Angeles teachers provoked outrage that year by reportedly urging their students to support them by skipping school. After journalist Debra Saunders noted in LA’s Daily News that the striking teachers were already well paid, the union published her home phone number in its newsletter and urged members to call her.
    Four years later, the CTA reached new heights of thuggishness after a business-backed group began a petition to place a school-choice initiative on the state ballot. In a union-backed effort, teachers shadowed signature gatherers in shopping malls and aggressively dissuaded people from signing up. The tactic led to more than 40 confrontations and protests of harassment by signature gatherers. “They get in between the signer and the petition,” the head of the initiative said. “They scream at people. They threaten people.” CTA’s top official later justified the bullying: some ideas “are so evil that they should never even be presented to the voters,” he said.
    The rise of the white-collar CTA provides a good example of a fundamental political shift that took place everywhere in the labor movement. In the aftermath of World War II, at the height of its influence, organized labor was dominated by private workers; as a result, union members were often culturally conservative and economically pro-growth. But as government workers have come to dominate the movement, it has moved left. By the mid-nineties, the CTA was supporting causes well beyond its purview as a collective bargaining agent for teachers. In 1994, for instance, it opposed an initiative that prohibited illegal immigrants from using state government programs and another that banned the state from recognizing gay marriages performed elsewhere. Some union members began to complain that their dues were helping to advance a political agenda that they disagreed with. “They take our money and spend it as they see fit,” says Larry Sand, founder of the California Teachers Empowerment Network, an organization of teachers and former teachers opposed to the CTA’s noneducational politicking.
    Public-safety workers—from cops and sheriffs to prison guards and highway-patrol officers—are the second part of the public-union triumvirate ruling California. In a state that has embraced some of the toughest criminal laws in the country, police and prison guards’ unions own a precious currency: their political endorsements, which are highly sought after by candidates wanting to look tough on crime. But the qualification that the unions usually seek in candidates isn’t, in fact, toughness on crime; it’s willingness to back better pay and benefits for public-safety workers.
    The pattern was set in 1972, when State Assemblyman E. Richard Barnes—an archconservative former Navy chaplain who had fought pension and fringe-benefit enhancements sought by government workers, including police officers and firefighters—ran for reelection. Barnes had one of the toughest records on crime of any state legislator. Yet cops and firefighters walked his district, telling voters that he was soft on criminals. He narrowly lost. As the Orange County Register observed years later, the election sent a message to all legislators that resonates even today: “Your career is at risk if you dare fiddle with police and fire” pay and benefits.
    The state’s prison guards’ union has exploited a similar message. Back in 1980, when the California Correctional Peace Officers Association (CCPOA) won the right to represent prison guards in contract negotiations, it was a small fraternal organization of about 1,600 members. But as California’s inmate population surged and the state went on a prison-building spree—constructing 22 new institutions over 25 years—union membership expanded to 17,000 in 1988, 25,000 by 1997, and 31,000 today. Union resources rose correspondingly, with a budget soaring to $25 million or so, supporting a staff 70 deep, including 20 lawyers.
    Deploying those resources, the union started to go after politicians who didn’t support higher salaries and benefits for its members and an ever-expanding prison system. In 2004, for example, the CCPOA spent $200,000—a whopping amount for a state assembly race—to unseat Republican Phil Wyman of Tehachapi. His sin: advocating the privatization of some state prisons in order to save money. “The amount of money that unions are pouring into local races is staggering,” says Joe Armendariz, executive director of the Santa Barbara County Taxpayers Association. A recent mayoral and city council election in Santa Barbara, with a population of just 90,000, cost more than $1 million, he observes.
    The symbiotic relationship between the CCPOA and former governor Gray Davis provides a remarkable example of the union’s power. In 1998, when Davis first ran for governor, the union threw him its endorsement. Along with those much-needed law-and-order credentials, it also gave Davis $1.5 million in campaign contributions and another $1 million in independent ads supporting him. Four years later, as Davis geared up for reelection, he awarded the CCPOA a stunning 34 percent pay hike over five years, increasing the average base salary of a California prison guard from about $50,000 a year to $65,000—and this at a time when the unemployment rate in the state had been rising for nearly a year and a half and government revenues had been falling. The deal cost the state budget an additional $2 billion over the life of the contract. A union official described it admiringly as “the best labor contract in the history of California.” Eight weeks after the offer, the union donated $1 million to Davis’s reelection campaign.
    Even cops who run for office have felt the wrath of public-safety unions. Allan Mansoor served 16 years as a deputy sheriff in Orange County but angered police unions by publicly backing an initiative that would have required them to gain their members’ permission to spend dues on political activities. When the conservative Mansoor ran successfully for city council several years back in Costa Mesa, local cops and firefighters poured resources into helping his more liberal opponents. “I didn’t like seeing my dues go to candidates like Davis, so I supported efforts to curb that,” Mansoor says. “Union leaders didn’t like it, so they endorsed my opponents by claiming they were tougher on crime than I was.”
    Even more troubling are the activities of the California Organization of Police and Sheriffs (COPS), a lobbying and advocacy group that has raised tens of millions of dollars from controversial soliciting campaigns. In one, COPS fund-raisers reportedly called residents of heavily immigrant neighborhoods and threatened to cut off their 911 services unless they donated. In another, a COPS fund-raiser reportedly offered to shave points off Californians’ driving records in exchange for donations. The group has dunned politicians, too. In 1998, it began publishing a voter guide in which candidates paid to be included. Pols considered the money well spent because of the importance of a COPS endorsement—or at least the appearance of one. “We all use them [COPS] for cover, especially in years when law enforcement is a big issue in elections,” one state senator, Santa Clara’s John Vasconcellos, admitted to the Orange County Register. “It stopped the right wing from calling me soft on crime.”
    The results of union pressure are clear. In most states, cops and other safety officers can typically retire at 50 with a pension of about half their final working salary; in California, they often receive 90 percent of their pay if they retire at the same age. The state’s munificent disability system lets public-safety workers retire with rich pay for a range of ailments that have nothing to do with their jobs, costing taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars. California’s prison guards are the nation’s highest-paid, a big reason that spending on the state’s prison system has blasted from less than 4.3 percent of the budget in 1986 to more than 11 percent today.
    California’s third big public-union player is the state wing of the SEIU, the nation’s fastest-growing union, whose chief, Andy Stern, earned notoriety by visiting the White House 22 times during the first six months of the Obama administration. Founded in 1921 as a janitors’ union, the SEIU slowly transformed itself into a labor group representing government and health-care workers—especially health-care workers paid by government medical programs like Medicaid. In 1984, the California State Employees Association, which represented many state workers, decided to affiliate with the SEIU. Today, the SEIU represents 700,000 California workers—more than a third of its nationwide membership. Of those, 350,000 are government employees: noninstructional workers in schools across the state; all non-public-safety workers in California’s burgeoning prisons; 2,000 doctors, mostly residents and interns, at state-run hospitals; and many others at the local, county, and state levels.
    The SEIU’s rise in California illustrates again how modern labor’s biggest victories take place in back rooms, not on picket lines. In the late 1980s, the SEIU began eyeing a big jackpot: tens of thousands of home health-care workers being paid by California’s county-run Medicaid programs. The SEIU initiated a long legal effort to have those workers, who were independent contractors, declared government employees. When the courts finally agreed, the union went about organizing them—an easy task because governments rarely contest organizing campaigns, not wanting to seem anti-worker. The SEIU’s biggest victory was winning representation for 74,000 home health-care workers in Los Angeles County, the largest single organizing drive since the United Auto Workers unionized General Motors in 1937. Taxpayers paid a steep price: home health-care costs became the fastest-growing part of the Los Angeles County budget after the SEIU bargained for higher wages and benefits for these new recruits. The SEIU also organized home health-care workers in several other counties, reaching a whopping statewide total of 130,000 new members.
    The SEIU’s California numbers have given it extraordinary resources to pour into political campaigns. The union’s major locals contributed a hefty $20 million in 2005 to defeat a series of initiatives to cap government growth and rein in union power. The SEIU has also spent millions over the years on initiatives to increase taxes, sometimes failing but on other occasions succeeding, as with a 2004 measure to impose a millionaires’ tax to finance more mental-health spending. With an overflowing war chest and hundreds of thousands of foot soldiers, the SEIU has been instrumental in getting local governments to pass living-wage laws in several California cities, including Los Angeles and San Francisco. And the union has also used its muscle in campaigns largely out of the public eye, as in 2003, when it pressured the board of CalPERS, the giant California public-employee pension fund, to stop investing in companies that outsourced government jobs to private contractors.
    Armed with knowledge about California’s three public-union heavyweights, one can start to understand how the state found itself in its nightmarish fiscal situation. The beginning of the end was the 1998 gubernatorial election, in which the unions bet their future—and millions of dollars in members’ dues—on Gray Davis. The candidate traveled to the SEIU’s headquarters to remind it of his support during earlier battles against GOP governors (“Nobody in this race has done anywhere near as much as I have for SEIU”); the union responded by pumping $600,000 into his campaign. Declaring himself the “education candidate” who would expand funding of public education, Davis received $1.2 million from the CTA. Added to this was Davis’s success in winning away from Republicans key public-safety endorsements—and millions in contributions—from the likes of the CCPOA.
    Davis’s subsequent victory over Republican Dan Lungren afforded public-worker unions a unique opportunity to cash in the IOUs that they had accumulated, because Davis’s Democratic Party also controlled the state legislature. What followed was a series of breathtaking deals that left California state and municipal governments careening from one budget crisis to another for the next decade.
    Perhaps the most costly was far-reaching 1999 legislation that wildly increased pension benefits for state employees. It included an unprecedented retroactive cost-of-living adjustment for the already retired and a phaseout of a cheaper pension plan that Governor Wilson had instituted in 1991. The deal also granted public-safety workers the right to retire at 50 with 90 percent of their salaries. To justify the incredible enhancements, Davis and the legislature turned to CalPERS, whose board was stocked with members who were either union reps or appointed by state officials who themselves were elected with union help. The CalPERS board, which had lobbied for the pension bill, issued a preposterous opinion that the state could provide the new benefits mostly out of the pension systems’ existing surplus and future stock-market gains. Most California municipalities soon followed the state enhancements for their own pension deals.
    When the stock market slid in 2000, state and local governments got slammed with enormous bills for pension benefits. The state’s annual share, estimated by CalPERS back in 1999 to be only a few hundred million dollars, reached $3 billion by 2010. Counties and municipalities were no better off. Orange County’s retirement system saw its payouts to retirees jump to $410 million a year by 2009, from $140 million a decade ago. Many legislators who had voted for the pension legislation (including all but seven Republicans) later claimed that they’d had no idea that its fiscal impact would be so devastating. They had swallowed the rosy CalPERS projections even though they knew very well that the board was, as one county budget chief put it, “the fox in the henhouse.”
    The second budget-busting deal of the Davis era was the work of the teachers’ union. In 2000, the CTA began lobbying to have a chunk of the state’s budget surplus devoted to education. In a massive rally in Sacramento, thousands of teachers gathered on the steps of the capitol, some chanting for TV cameras, “We want money! We want money!” Behind the scenes, Davis kept up running negotiations with the union over just how big the pot should be. “While you were on your way to Sacramento, I was driving there the evening of May 7, and the governor and I talked three times on my cell phone,” CTA president Wayne Johnson later boasted to members. “The first call was just general conversation. The second call, he had an offer of $1.2 billion. . . . On the third call, he upped the ante to $1.5 billion.” Finally, in meetings, both sides agreed on $1.84 billion. As Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters later observed, that deal didn’t merely help blow the state’s surplus; it also locked in higher baseline spending for education. The result: “When revenues returned to normal, the state faced a deficit that eventually not only cost Davis his governorship in 2003 but has plagued his successor, Arnold Schwarzenegger.”
    Having wielded so much power effortlessly, the unions miscalculated the antitax, anti-Davis sentiment that erupted when, shortly after his autumn 2002 reelection, Davis announced that the state faced a massive deficit. The budget surprise spurred an enormous effort to recall Davis, which the unions worked to defeat, with the SEIU spending $2 million. At the same time, union leaders used their influence in the Democratic Party to try to save Davis, telling other Democrats that they would receive no union support if they abandoned the governor. “If you betray us, we won’t forget it,” the head of the 800,000-member Los Angeles County Federation of Labor proclaimed to Democrats. Only when it became apparent from polls that the recall would succeed did the unions shift their support to Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, who finished a distant second to Schwarzenegger. Taxpayer groups were euphoric.
    But as they and Schwarzenegger soon discovered, most of California’s government machinery remained union-controlled—especially the Democratic state legislature, which blocked long-term reform. Frustrated, Schwarzenegger backed a series of 2005 initiatives sponsored by taxpayer groups to curb the unions and restrain government growth, including one that made it harder for public-employee unions to use members’ dues for political purposes. The controversial proposals sparked the most expensive statewide election in American history. Advocacy groups and businesses spent a staggering $300 million (some of it, however, coming from drug companies trying to head off an unrelated initiative). The spending spree included $57 million from the CTA, which mortgaged its Sacramento headquarters for the cause. All of the initiatives went down to defeat.
    California taxpayers nevertheless received a brief respite, thanks to the mid-decade housing boom that drove the economy and tax collections higher and momentarily eased the state’s budget crisis. Predictably, state politicians forgot California’s Davis-era deficit woes and gobbled up the surpluses, increasing spending by 32 percent, or $34 billion, in four years. Then the housing market crashed in 2007, prompting a cascade of budget crises in Sacramento and around the state. Only too late have Californians recognized the true magnitude of their fiscal problems, including a $21 billion deficit by mid-2009 that forced the state to issue IOUs when it temporarily ran out of cash. In the municipal bond market, fears are rising that the Golden State could actually default on its debt.
    Municipalities around the state are also buckling under massive labor costs. One city, Vallejo, has already filed for bankruptcy to get out from under onerous employee salaries and pension obligations. (To stop other cities from going this route, unions are promoting a new law to make it harder for municipalities to declare bankruptcy.) Other local California governments, big and small, are nearing disaster. The city of Orange, with a budget of just $88 million in 2009, spent $13 million of it on pensions and expects that figure to rise to $23 million in just three years. Contra Costa’s pension costs rose from $70 million in 2000 to $200 million by the end of the decade, producing a budget crisis.
    Los Angeles, where payroll constitutes nearly half the city’s $7 billion budget, faces budget shortfalls of hundreds of millions of dollars next year, projected to grow to $1 billion annually in several years. In October 2007, even as it was clear that the area’s housing economy was crashing, city officials had handed out 23 percent raises over a five-year period to workers. (See the sidebars on pages 22 and 26.)
    In the past, California could always rely on a rebounding economy to save it from its budgetary excesses. But these days, few view the state as the land of opportunity. Throughout the national recession that began in December 2008 and carried through 2009, California’s unemployment rate consistently ran several points higher than the national rate. Major California companies like Google and Intel have chosen to expand elsewhere, not in their home state. Put off by the high taxes and cumbersome regulatory regime that the public-sector cartel has led the way in foisting on the state, executives now view California as a noxious business environment. In a 2008 survey by a consulting group, Development Counsellors International, business executives rated California the state where they were least likely to locate new operations.
    More and more California taxpayers are realizing how stacked the system is against them, and the first stirrings of revolt are breaking out. Voters defeated a series of ballot initiatives last May that would have allowed politicians to solve the state budget crisis temporarily through a series of questionable gimmicks, including one to let the state borrow against future lottery receipts and another to let it plug budget holes with money diverted from a mental-health services fund. In a clear message from voters, the only proposition to gain approval last May banned pay raises for legislators during periods of budget deficit.
    With anger rising, taxpayer advocates now plan to revive older initiatives to cut the power of public-sector unions. Mark Bucher, head of the Citizens Power Campaign, is pushing for an initiative that’s similar to propositions that failed in 1998 and in 2005—but their prospects may be brighter today, he argues, because the woes of municipalities like Vallejo have made citizens more aware of union power and more supportive of reform. “The mood has clearly shifted in California,” Bucher says. “You can see that in the rise of local Tea Party antitax groups around the state. People are fed up.”
    Another initiative that could mend California’s broken politics is a 2008 vote that took the power to delineate electoral districts away from the state legislature—which had used it to make it difficult to defeat incumbents—and gave it to a nonpartisan commission. If this commission succeeds in making legislative races more competitive and incumbents more responsive to voter sentiment, the legislature would almost certainly become less beholden to narrow union interests, and a whole series of reforms would be possible: a new, cheaper pension plan for state employees; fewer restrictions on charter schools, which often educate kids more effectively and less expensively than public schools do; and regulatory reforms that would reduce the estimated $493 billion cost that regulations impose on California businesses each year.
    It will take an enormous effort to roll back decades of political and economic gains by government unions. But the status quo is unsustainable. And at long last, Californians are beginning to understand the connection between that status quo and the corruption at the heart of their politics.
    Steven Malanga is the senior editor of City Journal and a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. He is the author of The New New Left. Research for his article was supported by the Arthur N. Rupe Foundation.
  • ClimateGate Lingers




    Yes, it will not go away even when folks try to put out bluff pieces to reassure the believers that all is well and that the enemy is abusing the science.  I am growing somewhat weary of this story. IPCC was from top to bottom a document of special pleading made obvious by the slug of tout pieces accepted as part of the report.
    This was apparent months and years before the release of the emails, at least to anyone experienced with this type of report.  That it is now getting picked over and that a lot of the content is terrible is no surprise.  Yet a lot of that same content is quite good if certainly selected to support one side only.
    What was bad was the willingness of media types to drum the material so shamelessly.  Somehow an unreviewed piece sponsored by Greenpeace cannot be turned into a creditable report by the mere action of been placed in the IPCC report.
    IPCC did not put out a fully peer reviewed package of papers.  I cannot believe they intended to.  What happened though is that an awful lot of rubbish was hung on the scholarly skeleton and sanctified and then drummed as if it equaled the reputation of the legitimate work.
    They actually got away with all that for quite some time.   Critics who could see the nonsense were actually attacked to keep other eyes away from the facts.  By the time it was approaching Copenhagen, we were hearing claims the science was settled and a Nobel Prize was handed out.  A promotional frenzy was underway.
    That is when someone decided the time was right to release the compromising emails.
    Climategate: a scandal that won’t go away
    From Macbeth to Watergate, it’s not the act that leads to nemesis, but the attempts to ‘trammel up the consequence’ , writes Christopher Booker.

    Published: 7:22PM BST 17 Apr 2010
    If you were faced with by far the biggest bill of your life, would you not want to be confident that there was a very good reason why you should pay it? That is why we need to know just how far we can trust the science behind the official view that the world is threatened with catastrophe by global warming – because the measures proposed by our politicians to avert this supposed disaster threaten to transform our way of life out of recognition and to land us with easily the biggest bill in history. (The Climate Change Act alone, says the Government, will cost us all £18 billion every year until 2050.)
    Yet in recent months, as we know, the official science on which all this rests has taken quite a hammering. Confronted with all those scandals surrounding the “Climategate” emails and the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the political and academic establishments have responded with a series of inquiries and statements designed to show that the methods used to construct the official scientific case are wholly sound. But as was illustrated last week by two very different reports, these efforts to hold the line are themselves so demonstrably flawed that they are in danger of backfiring, leaving the science more questionable than ever.
    The first report centred directly on the IPCC itself. When several of the more alarmist claims in its most recent 2007 report were revealed to be wrong and without any scientific foundation, the official response, not least from the IPCC’s chairman, Dr Rajendra Pachauri, was to claim that everything in its report was “peer-reviewed”, having been confirmed by independent experts.
    But a new study put this claim to the test. A team of 40 researchers from 12 countries, led by a Canadian analyst Donna Laframboise, checked out every one of the 18,531 scientific sources cited in the mammoth 2007 report. Astonishingly, they found that nearly a third of them – 5,587 – were not peer-reviewed at all, but came from newspaper articles, student theses, even propaganda leaflets and press releases put out by green activists and lobby groups.
    In its own way even more damaging, however, was the report from a team led by Lord Oxburgh on the scientific integrity of the East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Two sets of evidence have been used more than anything else to drive the worldwide scare over global warming. One is a series of graphs showing how temperatures have suddenly shot up in recent decades to levels historically unprecedented. The other is the official record of global surface temperatures. For both of these, the CRU and the key group of top British and American scientists involved in those Climategate emails have been crucially responsible.
    Lord Oxburgh himself is linked to various commercial interests which make money from climate change, from wind farms to carbon trading. None of the panel he worked with on his report were climate “sceptics”; and one, Dr Kerry Emanuel, is an outspoken advocate of man-made global warming. Even so, it was surprising to see just how superficial their inquiry turned out to be, based on two brief visits to the CRU and on reading 11 scientific papers produced by the research unit in the past 24 years, chosen in consultation with the Royal Society (which is itself fanatical in promotion of warming orthodoxy).
    The crown jewels of the IPCC’s case that the world faces catastrophic warming have been all those graphs based on tree rings which purport to show that temperatures have lately been soaring to levels never known before in history – thus eradicating all the evidence that the world was hotter than today during the Medieval Warm Period, long before any rise in CO2 levels. Best known of these graphs, of course, was Michael Mann’s “hockey stick”, comprehensively discredited by the expert Canadian statistician Stephen McIntyre and Professor Ross McKitrick. But the IPCC was able to defend its case with the aid of another set of “hockey sticks”, based on different tree rings, produced by Mann’s close allies at the CRU.
    The most widely quoted of the Climategate emails was that from the CRU’s director, Philip Jones, saying that he had used “Mike’s Nature trick” to “hide the decline”. If there was anything in the CRU’s record which a proper inquiry should have addressed it was the story behind this email, because what it highlighted was the device used by the CRU to get round the fact that its tree-ring data hopelessly failed to show the result the warmist establishment wanted. When their Siberian tree rings showed temperatures in the late 20th century sharply dropping rather than rising, the “trick” used by Prof Jones and his colleague Dr Keith Briffa, copied from Mike Mann’s own “hockey stick”, was simply to delete the downward curve shown by the tree rings, replacing them with late 20th-century temperature data to show the dramatic warming they wanted.
    The significance of this sleight of hand can scarcely be exaggerated. Why, in using this misleading graph, did the IPCC not explain the trick that had been played by its leading scientists? If tree rings were so inadequate in reflecting 20th-century temperatures, why should they be relied on to reflect temperatures in earlier centuries? Why, when fresh Siberian tree ring data came to light, making a nonsense of the CRU’s earlier temperature reconstructions, did the CRU simply ignore the new data?
    Anyone who has followed the meticulous analysis of this curious story by Steve McIntyre on his Climate Audit website might well conclude that we are looking here at a complete travesty of proper scientific procedure, matched only by the bizarre methods used by Mann himself to construct his original hockey stick. Yet these are the men, Mann, Jones and Briffa, who acted as the “lead authors” of the key chapters of the IPCC’s 2001 and 2007 reports.
    They quite shamelessly promoted the rewriting of history produced by themselves and a small group of colleagues – the so-called Hockey Team – which the IPCC in turn used as its main evidence to convince the politicians that the world faces unprecedented warming.
    Yet scarcely a hint of this hugely important story is contained in the Oxburgh report, which simply glosses it over, hoping to appease critics by throwing in a few vaguely critical comments about how Jones and his team were a trifle “disorganised” in archiving their data. It ignores the utterly damning critiques of the CRU’s methodology produced by McIntyre and McKitrick. It does not even begin to question the way the CRU has compiled its global temperature record, relied on by the IPCC as the most authoritative of all the official data sources for surface temperatures.
    Yet this in turn has given rise to all sorts of controversies, not least when Prof Jones last year admitted that much of his data had been “lost” (following his repeated refusals of applications to see it by McIntyre and others). More damaging still was the charge by senior Russian scientists that, in compiling its global record, CRU had cherry-picked the data supplied from Russia, suppressing that from most of the country while retaining the data from the vicinity of cities which, thanks to the “urban heat island” effect, showed a warming trend. So even the accuracy of CRU’s temperature record has been called seriously in doubt, although one would never have guessed it from Oxburgh.
    As is reflected in so many political tragedies, from Macbeth to Watergate, it is often not the original dark act itself which leads to nemesis but the later attempts to “trammel up the consequence”. Nothing will do more to reinforce suspicion of the CRU’s conduct than the failure, first by those MPs, and now by the team led by Lord Oxburgh, to address properly the way in which it appears to have abused the principles of true science – a scandal which should be of concern not just to us here in Britain, who paid for it, but across the world.
  • You Don’t Have To Be Vegan To Eat Vegan Foods

     
    Pizza_dairyglutenfree

    Here’s a common conversation I have about my @noshtopia tweet stream:

    Reader: I’m confused.

    Me: What are you confused about?

    Reader: You’ll tweet about how you baked some vegan banana nut muffins, and then tweet about how you ate this Quinoa chicken fried rice you made. Vegans are not supposed to eat meat.

    Me: Well, you don’t have to be vegan to eat vegan foods.

    (Reader gives me silence and look of perplextion.)

    Me: I eat a lot of vegan foods particularly baked goods because I have cow milk and chicken egg allergies. I could say dairy-free and egg-free, but the word vegan uses less letters for Twitter, it’s easier to write, and lots of people do searches for the term vegan. I care about this kind of stuff because I’m a blogger who needs web traffic. Plus, believe it or not, I’ve been to restaurants where waiters thought butter was dairy-free – not kidding. If I ask for a vegan dish, it is more clear, that there is to be no animal ingredient in it at all. 

     
    Brusselsprouts_recipedish

    I also eat lots of vegan foods because the vegetable dishes are way more tasty and interesting as I cannot stand plain old steamed spinach or broccoli. I used to dislike Brussels sprouts but here’s a way to make shaved sprouts tasty and interesting. The recipe calls for pecorino but you could easily take it out. Plus, there are many vegan options that I just like better than a dairy or egg version. For example, I’m not a fan of mayonnaise, so I use Brianna’s Poppyseed dressing in place of mayo in things like this chicken, mandarin orange, walnut salad or simple tuna salad.

    I also mix vegan foods with meats. I call it “carnegan” – a carnivorous chowing vegan eater. I do mean it respectfully. It’s my way of bridging the two worlds together. I have to eat this way because again I have allergies to dairy and eggs, but I think it’s also an interesting way to introduce vegan foods to those who predominately eat animal products. 

     
    Turkey_macaronibake

    Here are some of my carnegan dish examples, in the picture at the top of the post is a vegan pizza with pineapple, olives, Daiya vegan cheese, and Italian sausage. I’ve made Tofu Scramble with chicken apple sausage, and here’s a Baked Macaroni with turkey sauce and rice-milk based cheddar cheese. I want to show people options on ways to cut down on animal based foods without making huge leaps outside of their eating comfort zone.

    It’s also important to me to show people who have food allergies especially to foods that are dominant in our culture like dairy and eggs, that you are not doomed to a life of bland, restrictive eating. We too have a plethora of choices and can eat in ways that are fun and flavorful.

    There is living vegan which is a lifestyle built around personal values involving the use of no animal based products whether it be food, clothing, shoes, furniture, or anything utilizing an animal product.

    Vegan can also be used as a dietary description of eating where one eats nothing from an animal whether it be the meat, milk, or eggs. I know people who say they are vegan but really they are just vegan eaters and not living the vegan lifestyle because while they are eating their vegan burgers, they are wearing leather shoes, carrying a leather purse, and wearing a leather jacket.

    There is also a growing trend of people who are eating more vegan foods in their overall diet simply for health reasons. I have a few friends who went vegan to lower their cholesterol instead of taking purple pills. NY Times Food writer Mark Bittman has this strategy he calls “Vegan before dinnertime” where he eats vegan foods all day, but after 6pm he can eat whatever he wants.

    He adopted this food approach as a way to help him heal from high cholesterol, borderline high blood sugar, sleep
    apnea, and gaining 35 pounds. As a food writer, it was not realistic or desirable to go 100% vegan. Mark cut down on the animal products for his health and enjoys all kinds of new foods.

    So, you see, there are many other reasons to eat vegan foods other than values about animals. For me, I have cut down the amount of meat I eat simply because it helps me feel lighter with less meat, and eating more grains, fruits, and veggies keeps me more regular (in a fiber kind of way.)

    I tried going 100% vegan once but my body can’t sustain without some animal proteins as I also have allergies to some common beans, some nuts, and soy/tofu affects my metabolism. Plus, I like meat. I do my best to eat meats I know were humanely treated. I also buy kosher meats quite a bit. I will have days where I eat no meat at all just to help give my digestive system a break because eating meat all the time especially heavy meats like beef can be taxing on the body.

    Reader: Oh, okay, I get it now. That makes sense.

    Me: But I totally get your point because I get asked that question all the time. My tweets can look contradictory, but I kinda like that it gets people to notice because then it’s an opportunity to share what I’m doing at Noshtopia with eating wellness. I like to experiment with all kinds of foods and ways of eating, and I enjoy opening people up to seeing food in new ways!


  • Emotiv Headset Controls Rovio Robot Via Brainwaves [DIY]

    You’ve seen Rovio hackery before, but not like this. Not with MIND CONTROL and Skype both involved. Emotiv Systems’ headset is used to control the Rovio, with the signal being carried to the robot over Skype. More »







  • Susan Boyle To Sing For The Pope?

    The Roman Catholic Church wants Scottish spinster-turned-singing sensation Susan Boyle to perform for Pope Benedict XVI during his visit to Britain later this year, a spokesman for the church told The Herald Sun on Sunday.

    A spokesperson for the church’s Scottish diocese said that a meeting is likely to be held to discuss a performance by the 49-year-old singer.

    Boyle was catapulted to global stardom after belting out the theme to Les Miserables as a contestant on the UK TV talent show Britain’s Got Talent in 2009. Her first album, I Dreamed A Dream, was the best-selling debut in British chart history and also topped the Billboard charts in the US.

    The rep added that Boyle would be a ‘great asset” for the events planned for The Pontiffs visit.

    “She certainly would be a great asset to the program on the day and we hope to be able to discuss the possibility of her participation soon….”

    Pope Benedict will be in Britain Sept. 16-19.


  • Future Nuclear Energy Capacity

    This is a long essay on the prospective development potential of fission systems in particular.  The key point that he makes is that the technologies taken as a whole will consume the available power in Uranium in various stages and that most of it is actually coming on stream.



    A big part of the reason is national competition from Europe, China and India.  Had it been left up to us it would never have got done. Yet now we can look forward to buying a breeder reactor off the shelf and use it to help consume some of our waste. 
    The solutions are all there in spite of our own curious decision making.
    An interesting point here is that uranium taken from the sea needs only be twice present price levels to be economic.  This is actually important.
    A coming mega industry will be desalination to produce fresh water.  We have already discussed one two stage protocol that switches out solid brine.  Recovering uranium from that may be surprisingly easy with the use of carbon.  It needs to be thought about because uranium byproduct would defray a major part of overhead.
    Since the economics will be driven by water, the uranium stock can become very large.
    APRIL 24, 2010
    Weird Science posted a response in our back in forth on future energy. Bruce at Weird Science has some fundamental inconsistencies in how he views the future which are problematic.

    Contradictions and Inconsistencies and Unjustified Criteria


    Weird Science talks about accepting fossil fuels for 70 years and wanting a future energy source to last for 700 years. These are just numbers that are pulled out of the air or are guesses based on simplified assumptions. Plus the timeframes are so long and sweeping that any analysis requires a laundry list of assumptions and predictions about that the many different 70-700 year scenarios are. I occasionally write about the far future but the farther out you go then the upside scenario becomes trying to get the right century or millenia when humanity might move into a new kardashev classification. The variance can become billions of times different depending upon how things play out. The downside scenario becomes we are all dead. 

    Fossil fuels could last 200 years or an aggressive program and good technology could cause a major shift from fossil fuels within 50 years.

    Displacing coal and a lot of Oil over 50 years


    Deeper burn could allow uranium to be used 50 times more efficiently (use all uranium isotopes and use most of the 65% of heat that is not utilized). Instead of using 68,000 tons of uranium to provide 17% of world electricity or 7% of total power needs (including transportation and industrial uses.) you could use the same annual amount of mined uranium to provide triple the world’s electricity and double the industrial heat. This would mean getting up to around 60% conversion of heat to electricity and utilizing the rest of the heat for industrial. Electrification of transportation would allow a lot of the oil to not be used.

    Factory built deep burn nuclear fission could be a part of displacing coal. Hyperion Power Generation making thousands of uranium nitride and then uranium hydride reactors could have a major impact from 2013-2030+. China pebble bed reactors starting with HTR-PM will be continuously improving major system. Liquid flouride thorium and accelerator based nuclear reactors could be developed 2025-2035. 

    Basically consistency for a 70 year forward scenario would say that the future energy source has 20-50 years or so to perfect itself and then 20-30 years to be deployed and be ready for the handoff. China is planning to have nuclear breeders fully ready and deployed in 2050. My scenario about factory built deep burn reactors has several active projects actually succeeding. However, the Weird Science analysis assumes that nuclear fission technology and their economics stays static for 70-700 years. 


    I do not concede another 70 years to Fossil Fuels

    70 years of using coal and oil the way we do now would mean over 200 million premature deaths from air pollution. 

    I do not concede that Uranium from Seawater will Remain Uneconomical


    Here is some cost analysis of uranium from seawater 

    There are several ways to scale up the lab work to commercial scale for uranium from seawater

    Weird Science quoted one proposal that said “only” 6 tons of uranium per year could come from a continuous uranium from seawater process, but that was only one proposed setup. This is like you can saying you can only get 6 tons of fish from one fishing line from one boat. You can have tens of thousands and even millions of boats and lines or alter a process to have big boats and drift nets. How many assembly lines are there for cars and computers ? Not just one. 1 million uranium lines would mean 6 million tons per year. It is the whole civilization we are talking about. So I do not support the claim that seawater process is uneconomical or unable to produce the volumes needed. The processes will of course be improved to reduce the costs. Plus even at $200/kg the fuel costs of a nuclear reactor are small. Especially a breeder reactor that has deep burn. Full burn uses 50 times less fuel to generate the same power. Fuel costs can then go up 50 times and still be the same fraction of electricity cost.

    There has been no analysis of what Japan is planning to do. The large scale growth of bioengineer seaweed for both biofuel and uranium from seawater extraction. This is one of the proposals that is the closest to moving forward. 

    The effect of Removing Uranium from Seawater


    River runoff adds 6,500 tons per year of uranium into the oceans. Integral fast breeder reactors or other deep burn reactors could provide double the current world electricity usage from that uranium. There is about 3.5 billion tons of uranium in seawater. Humanity could remove 1.7 billion tons to get the concentration down to half. Plus the number of years this took would add back in 6500 tons of uranium each year from runoff. 1.7 billion tons of uranium would last far longer than 700 years in almost any scenario. 

    Thorium Starts boosting Fission fuel Supplies starting in 2020


    There is also the thorium in the earths crust. Three times as much as the uranium. How thorium becomes uranium in a reactor is explained here. 

    India is working to use thorium in reactors. A couple of startups are working to produce thorium fuel rods for existing reactors. They target 2020-2025. They are funded and doing experiments in actual reactors. 

    Accelerator driven reactors also have complete burn. It is getting cheaper and cheaper to make neutrons. With neutrons you can convert uranium 238 to plutonium 239 and again achieve complete burn.

    Uranium from Phosphate has been done for decades. A few thousand tons of uranium per year. There is over 6 million tons of uranium in phosphate in known reserves.

    Far Future Speculation

    What is my speculation on what will happen to humanity and its energy needs for 70-700 years in the future ? 

    This is becomes totally disconnected from current technology. 

    We will probably have : dyson shells, molecular nanotechnology, Extreme AGI, control of casimr forces, mach effect


    I forecast a technological singularity by 2060 at the latest and radical changes before then. So discussing energy in the 70-700 year timeframe is like a debate about modern energy by cavemen. 

    Energy because it can take currently take 40 years to make a major shift in the energy generation mix lets you try to plan out for 100 years but you have to expect to be wrong. You just have to be less wrong then someone else’s assumptions and plans and provide a better path forward. Even energy planning beyond 100 years is just nuts. Even population projections beyond 50 years are whack. The rate of making babies shifted a lot from 1960 to today.

    Power sources for a Yottawatt civilization (less than Kardashev level two. About K1.75) will be a mix of space based solar, various kinds of nuclear fusion and deep burn nuclear fission.

    I believe we will have full blown diamondoid nanofactory molecular manufacturing in 30 years max.

    Bruce have not acknowledged my points about breeders etc… You said no tech and I pointed out that breeders exist and operate fine and there will about dozen or a lot more (with hyperion power generation and the Russian 100 Mw version) very soon. 

  • Last days of work at Minufiyeh

    Egypt Exploration Society (Jo Rowland)

    As usual the last few days are of course the busiest – hence our silence on Tumblr! This week saw the confirmation that there is further material to investigate in T3 in one of the next seasons. We photographed our small and special finds from the season this week and completed our recording forms too. It has been a week of final ‘post-excavation’ plans and the seasonal act of covering the archaeological remains and ‘back-filling’ the trenches with sand – this is both to ensure that anything standing is not damaged by the environment, and also to ensure that future archaeologists know that someone has been excavating in certain areas in the 2000s!

    A quite remarkable discovery occurred earlier this week in the surface layers of T5 and this will be further investigated during the summer and published soon as well.
  • Greece Bond Yields Are Absolutely Exploding Right Now… Just Before A ‘Bailout’

    Greece’s finance minister recently told traders they would ‘lose their shirts’ betting against Greece.

    The country is also reportedly very close to finalizing negotiations with the IMF in regards to a 45 billion euro financial lifeline to help with an upcoming chunky 8.5 billion euro May 19th bond maturity date.

    So then why are Greek bond yields absolutely exploding right now? The ten-year bond is yielding 9.32% right now according to Bloomberg data, which is far higher than it was trading last week even. The two-year has exploded to… get this… 12.55%. Just to lend Greece money for two years.

    This is a financing crisis happening right now, right on the eve of a bailout. Which says it all. Clearly, traders believe the bailout won’t be enough. The bailout is just a short-term band-aid fix, and an expensive 45 billion euro one at that. This is painfully obvious based on the yield explosion right now.

    Chart

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Low stone walls were animal traps

    Discovery News (Larry O’Hanlon)

    With photograph and slideshow.

    British RAF pilots in the early 20th century were the first to spot the strange kite-like lines on the deserts of Israel, Jordan and Egypt from the air and wonder about their origins. The lines are low, stone walls, usually found as angled pairs, that begin far apart and converge at circular pits. In some places in Jordan the lines formed chains up to 40 miles long.

    Were they made by some weird kind of fault? Ancient astronauts?

    A new study of 16 of what are called desert kites in the eastern Sinai Desert confirms what many researchers have long suspected: The walls form large funnels to direct gazelle and other large game animals into killing pits. What’s more, the kites are between 2,300 and 2,400-years-old, were abandoned about 2,200 years ago and are just the right size to have worked on local gazelles and other hooved game.

  • Sarah Jessica Parker To Narrate Fashion Exhibit Metropolitan Museum Of Art

    Sarah Jessica Parker has been tipped as New York City’s newest museum guide!

    The Halston spokesmodel — who plays fashionista Carrie Bradshaw in the Sex And The City franchise –will provide voiceover narration for the Costume Institute’s annual fashion exhibition at the world-renowned Metropolitan Museum of Art (The MET) in Manhattan.

    The American Woman: Fashioning a National Identity — which looks at women’s clothing from 1890 to 1940 –opens on May 5.

    “Because of Sex and the City, she is so much associated with New York and with America, and with using fashion as a way to shape identity,” Andrew Bolton, the institute’s curator, told Women’s Wear Daily Monday.


  • Did frail feet fell the Tutankhamun?

    Em Hotep (Keith Payne)

    This analysis references the JAMA and other reports, and looks particularly at the claims for Freiburg Kohler disease found in the Pharaoh’s foot and the implications of this on his reign.

    Was King Tut a warrior king or “one sick kid”? Even as the Family of Tutankhamun Project was publishing its findings in the Journal of the American Medical Association that the Boy King was a frail young man who needed a cane to walk, Egyptologist W. Raymond Johnson was publishing his evidence that Tut was an active young man who rode chariots into battle.

    So which is the true Tut? What if both versions are accurate? Could this perfect storm of physical challenges and adventurous behavior have led Tutankhamun to a heroic but early grave?

    There’s an update in a post two weeks later:

    Two weeks ago I posted my article about the JAMA* report’s analysis of King Tut’s foot problems and how they might have potentially led to his downfall (no pun intended). One of the elements of my argument was that Tutankhamun was missing a toe bone in his right foot. But he wasn’t (and probably still isn’t).

    I had based my contention on a typo in one of the tables in the JAMA report, a typo that is contradicted in numerous places throughout the rest of the article, a series of dots which I somehow failed to connect. As a result, Gentle Reader Monica gently but concisely took me to task for my mistake in the Comments section of the article.

    Now a writer for a much more high-profile (at least for now) outfit than Em Hotep has made the same mistake. So shamey-shamey on us. But how did the same mistake make it past the editors of the Journal of the American Medical Association?

    It seemed like a pretty good thesis at the time: the combination of a painful foot condition in Tutankhamun’s left foot, a right foot weakened by a missing toe bone, and a brash young prince given to occasional risky behavior led to a traumatic fall and an untimely death.

    It’s still a pretty good thesis, for the most part. . . . .

    In another post on Em Hotep there is a round up of all the main responses to the JAMA article.

    So much for the evil god Set keeping his mouth shut—people just seem to insist on questioning authority. The JAMA article is jammed with answers, but queries continue. Assembled here for your pleasure and edification are the best examples of critical questioning culled from the Egyptological blogosphere.

    Tangled roots, the passed-over prince, aging them bones, lack of control, and Kate Phizackerley’s Quest for Accuracy.

  • American Companies Are Planning To Ramp Employment, But They Say U.S. Stimulus Has Nothing To Do With It

    Barack Obama

    According to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), which is a professional organization of business economists within corporations, job creation has already begun in the U.S., in the first quarter of 2010, and it will now continue robustly over the next two quarters.

    NABE:

    Job creation increased for the first time in the past two years of this NABE survey. The percentage of firms increasing payrolls rose to 22% from 13% in the January survey. The percentage of firms cutting jobs moved lower—from 28% in January to 13% in April. The share of respondents expecting their firms to add employees over the coming six months rose to 37%, up from 29% in the previous survey.

    Thing is, their hiring plans and recent job growth has almost nothing to do with government stimulus they say:

    The vast majority (73%) of respondents reported the fiscal stimulus enacted in February 2009 has had no impact on employment to date. While 68% also believe a jobs bill, such as the one recently enacted into law, will have no impact on payrolls, 30% do believe it will boost payrolls moderately.

    Despite the fact that these people are on the ground seeing job growth from within corporations, we’ll just say that it would be hard to imagine that stimulus didn’t create any jobs. You can argue whether or not the jobs it creates are sustainable or even useful (some will say they are just make-work type projects and such). But near-term jobs are indeed created even if in the long-term they aren’t economically beneficial (let’s leave this endless debate for another space).

    The perspective of these economists might highlight how stimulus hasn’t done much to stimulate job growth at private companies, since these are people at private companies, even if it has created a lot of public sector jobs (or public sector-driven jobs such as contractors hiring people to fulfill government bestowed contracts).

    Regardless, for investors and workers right now, the good news is that private companies are increasingly looking to hire. Which is a good sign. It just may be that we shouldn’t be applauding stimulus for the change in hiring outlook.

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • The 3D Giza Plateau & Virtual Archaeology

    Talking Pyramids (Vincent Brown)

    With photos and 2 minute preview video.

    The Giza Archives Project at the Museum of Fine Arts in Boston has for many years been the most extensive online resource on the archaeology of the Giza Plateau. Much of the archived material is from the 40 years of excavations carried out by Egyptologist George Reisner who led the the Harvard University-Boston MFA expedition at Giza from 1902 to 1942.

    Now the Giza Archives Project has moved into the virtual arena with the release of Giza 3D!

    However, this is not the first time the project has used 3D immersive technology to explore the possibilities of ‘Virtual Egyptology’.