The building season has begun. As Moze posted recently, the Honorarium List is out. As one of this year’s honorarium artists I thought I’d give a little insight into how one comes to the conclusion to take on the monumental project of building The Temple for Burning Man.
It all began Sunday last year on the […]
I couldn’t resist reposting this yesterday’s bit o’ fluff from the cleantech news portal Greenbang, itself reproduced from Forum for the Future, first, well because it cites yours truly; but even more agonizingly because the headline is exactly what I should have called Future Savvy if I knew the first thing about marketing, which I obviously don’t.
So may I say, this is what
I was trying to say: When trying to predict the future, watch for dog poop!
Or perhaps: apparently helpful guides to the future are often dog poop disguised as chocolate, and here’s how to know the difference.
Something like that.
Note that this Greenbang story, below, is damaged by letting the most extreme predictions (the howlers) stand in for the general item. Prediction howler-spotting is sobering, but misses how many people got the future right, or right enough to make excellent decisions, and therefore overly damages the foresight field.
Also, howlers are actually the low-hanging fruit. Being future savvy is ultimately about the more subtle job of correcting weighing apparently very credible and well-founded predictions, some of which are excellent, but others of which are far flimsier than they appear.
There are various other minor problems such as not knowing the difference between the Gartner Hype Cycle and Zeitgeist bias, etc. And I would never call myself, not even in my most self-deprecating moments, a “futurologist.” But anyway, as I said, just a bit of fun:
Greenbang (13th April 2010) by Trish Lorenz & Martin Wright: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr’s words are a wise warning to reckless forecasters.
“Combining a nuclear reactor with a home boiler is no longer a problem. It would heat and cool the house, provide unlimited hot water and melt the snow from sidewalks and driveways. All that could be done for six years on a single charge of fissionable material costing about $300.” — Robert Ferry, US Institute of Boiler and Radiator Manufacturers, 1955
“Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in ten years.” — Alex Lewyt, President of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp, also 1955
Lewyt and Ferry both stumbled into a risky habit of all amateur futurists: extrapolating from present trends. In this case, they were caught up in the surge of excitement over the rise of nuclear power. They were not alone. In the tech-fuelled optimism of the ’50s, magazines, radio and the infant TV were buzzing with predictions of flying cars and lunar settlements.
They had fallen victim to what later became known as the Gartner Hype Cycle. This maps the enthusiasm and subsequent disillusionment typical in the introduction of new technology — a useful reality check for those caught up in “irrational optimism.”
By contrast, there are those whose feet are too firmly rooted in present realities, and fail to see how innovation can combine with social changes to speed the widespread adoption of new technology.
“The Americans need the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, Royal Mail, 1878
“The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad.” — President of the Michigan Savings Bank, advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in Ford Motors, 1903
It is difficult to consider any factor that doesn’t apparently exist at the time of making a prediction, but that’s essentially what looking ahead requires. It wasn’t all that long ago when people were predicting a bright future for teletext and fax machines. Few would have anticipated that both would be made almost obsolete by the internet and email. And yet the weak signals were there for those who chose to hear them. A fax machine, after all, is simply a modem with a rather complex print interface attached. It only evolved as it did because people were unused to reading information solely on screen, and computers were too big to carry around with them. Once laptops took off in the early ’90s, the fax was doomed.
“There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home.” — Ken Olson, Chairman, Digital Equipment Corp, 1977
Australian Senator Dr Russell Trood sums it up neatly when he says: ” ‘Nowism’ is a serious occupational hazard for those in the prediction game.”
Today’s futurologists no longer try to predict a single outcome for the future; instead they map a variety of scenarios. For Adam Gordon of Future Savvy, scenario-based thinking gives people “permission to think through alternative outcomes without necessarily predicting them.” Instead of trying to forecast precisely what might happen, he says, “we can ask ‘What if it does?,’ and then explore the outcomes and our responses.” Such thinking characterises much of the strategy adopted by forward-looking governments on tackling climate change.
James Goodman, head of Futures at Forum for the Future, agrees: “People think it’s the output that’s important, but actually it’s the process.” And, he adds, “All future planning has uncertainty at its heart.”
Or as Martin Raymond, Strategy and Insight Director at The Future Laboratory, says, “We always try to spot the dog
poop in our forecast.”
Greenbang Editor’s note: This was a guest article by Trish Lorenz and Martin Wright at Forum for the Future. This piece originally appeared in Green Futures, which is published by Forum for the Future and is the leading magazine on environmental solutions and sustainable futures. Its aim is to demonstrate that a sustainable future is both practical and desirable — and can be profitable, too.
From Green Right Now Reports
Following criticism that it was too easy for manufacturers to get an Energy Star label, and that some appliances had slipped through the system with less-than promised energy savings, the EPA today announced that it was tightening the Energy Star product certification process.
The changes aim to ensure that only products that truly meet the Energy Star label requirements will receive the federal endorsement.
The Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy, which both oversee the Energy Star program, worked over several months to improve “the verification, testing and enforcement aspects of the Energy Star program,” according to an EPA release.
The changes were prompted by a 2009 audit that found some appliances receiving the Energy Star label were not measuring up, mainly because the Energy Star program failed to track performance.
The audit by the Energy Department’s inspector general, Gregory H. Friedman found that the Energy Star label for computers and TVs was not “verifiable,” and also turned up problems with some refrigerators, specifically some LG models that did not meet Energy Star standards. (Those problems were resolved after a lawsuit.)
In the report, Friedman noted that the Energy Star label was only as good as its reliability and that problems could reduce consumer confidence in the program. That was a note echoed in today’s news release about tighter controls on the program.
“Consumers trust the Energy Star brand to save them money and reduce carbon pollution,” said Cathy Zoi, DOE Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. “The steps we are taking to strengthen the program will ensure that Energy Star continues to be the hallmark for energy efficiency in the years to come.”
The changes to shore up the Energy Star certification will put an end to self-verification by manufacturers, upon whom the EPA had relied for honest assessments. Going forward, manufacturers who want to qualify products for Energy Star label must submit complete lab reports and results for review ahead of time by the EPA.
The EPA also will “no longer (be) relying on an automated approval process,” according to Wednesday’s news release.” All new qualification applications will be reviewed and approved individually by EPA.
Furthermore, all products across 60 possible categories, from windows to dishwashers, must submit energy testing results by independent accredited labs to the program. That has been a requirement for some products, but not all types of consumer items eligible for the program.
All this is in addition to ongoing testing already in place, the EPA reported.
DOE conducts off-the-shelf product testing for some of the most common household appliances and reports that a recent Inspector General audit found that 98 percent of products tested met Energy Star requirements.
Filed under: Car Buying, Ford, Earnings/Financials
By most accounts, Ford had a pretty good first quarter. Sales were up 37 percent versus the first three months of 2009, and The Blue Oval’s market share rose an impressive 2.7 percentage points during the period. According to a report in USA Today, Ford President Mark Fields says that the extra showroom traffic led to added revenue for the company. And while added revenue doesn’t always translate into increased profits, the extra cash generated by increased sales makes an “in the black” first quarter far more likely. If Ford does manage a profit in the first quarter, it would mark the fourth consecutive period of cash gains for the Dearborn, MI-based automaker. Impressive, considering Ford lost nearly $15 billion in 2008.
The sales gains at Ford were realized mostly from the sale of Blue Oval-badged cars, trucks and crossovers. Lincoln and Mercury didn’t see much in the way of gains, but USA Today quotes Ford analyst George Pipas as saying most of the marketing money was spent on Ford, adding “If we were going to fix the business, we had to fix the Ford brand, because that’s where we had the best chance of getting a return.”
The Ford vehicle that realized the most gains in the first quarter was the Fusion. Ford’s mid-size sedan saw an 81 percent increase in sales compared to the first three months of 2009. Ford also increased its share of the pickup truck market. The profit-rich F-Series increased its overall share of the truck market to 38.5 percent, up 5.3 percent year-over-year. Ford is expected to announce official first quarter earnings later in the month.
[Source: USA Today | Image: Bill Pugliano/Getty]
Report: Q1 revenue, sales up at Ford on strong F-Series, Fusion sales originally appeared on Autoblog on Wed, 14 Apr 2010 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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Thumbs Up: You’ll run out of nerve before the 2010 Jeep Wrangler runs out of capability.
Thumbs Down: Optioned out, they can get expensive quickly.
Buy This Car If: You want to go off-roading top down, you appreciate a ride with personality and you want an SUV that can be uniquely your own.
At first, I just didn’t understand the 2010 Jeep Wrangler Sahara’s appeal. It had too many compromises for my practical sensibility: it’s got four seats, but getting into or out of the back with the hard top on requires some agility. Rear seat in place, you won’t be carrying much luggage in the rear hatch. The venerable 3.8 liter V6 motor is hardly state of the art, and fuel mileage isn’t great partially because it’s mated to a four speed automatic transmission. Supremely capable off-road, it’s on-road ride comfort isn’t what most drivers are used to. The icing on the cake for me was the window sticker; as equipped, this 2010 Sahara Edition Jeep Wrangler had a $31,190.00 price tag. Sure it’s got a good nav system and a decent stereo, but that’s a big check to be writing for a daily driver with more than a few quirks.
After a few days behind the wheel, I began to get it: very few people buy a Jeep Wrangler for its practicality, and most Wrangler buyers could care less about ride comfort. Like Harley Davidson motorcycles (another iconic brand), Jeep Wranglers are generally bought for entertainment, or in recognition of their astonishing heritage. If you need passenger and cargo room with go-anywhere capability, you buy a Jeep Grand Cherokee. If you want top down, off-road fun, you buy a Wrangler. In fact, the Jeep Wrangler is the last of the convertible SUVs, which should make your new car shopping list that much shorter.
It didn’t take long for the Wrangler to win me over, once I figured out the secret. Is it crude? Sure it is, but that’s part of the Wrangler’s personality, part of its appeal. You get the sense that, should something break on the Jeep, it could be fixed trail-side with a bit of JB Weld, some Gorilla Tape and a multitool. If you don’t like any one thing about the Wrangler, there’s an aftermarket company that sells just what you’re looking for to address it. In reality, the Jeep is a blank canvas, just waiting for an owner to personalize it. Besides, the Wrangler has more history behind the marque than any other vehicle still in production.
Rear seat in place limits cargo room, but…
Folding the rear seat forward gives you more than 2x the space
So what about the motor? Jeep Wranglers now use a 3.8 liter V6 that’s been in the Chrysler parts bin for a while. In stock form, it makes 205 horsepower and 240 ft-lbs of torque, which is fine for most owners and good enough to get you from zero to sixty in under ten seconds. If you want more grunt from your Jeep, the Wrangler responds really well to intake and exhaust system upgrades, which won’t break the bank. Personally, I’d really like a diesel or turbo diesel motor option, such as the new 2.5 liter Delta motor from Fiat. Hint, hint, Chrysler.
Chrysler’s 3.8 liter V6 replaced the old inline six in 2007
I put around two hundred miles on the Wrangler, and it was plenty comfortable for multi-hour driving. The hardtop sealed well and made highway driving more enjoyable; if you live in a cold climate, or regularly park your Jeep outside overnight, the $1,625.00 hard top is a must-have option. Driver and passenger seats are supportive, but would benefit from additional lumbar support and a little more side bolstering. I much prefer cloth seats over leather, especially in a truck that’s going to get dirty, and the Jeep’s were nicely finished in a two tone, stain resistant fabric. The in-dash nav system was fairly intuitive, and the seven speaker Infinity sound system was far better than I expected.
What impressed me the most was the overall improvement in build quality. I’ve driven pre-JK series Jeeps, and was always less than impressed with how well they were put together. Even new ones squeaked and rattled off a dealer’s lot like a chorus of chipmunks on speed. Not so with the new Wranglers; their build quality is rock solid, and the Sahara never had a squeak or rattle, even over rough pavement. The dash and surround is multi-textured hard plastic, but that’s not a bad thing. It’s easy to clean and visually more appealing than acres of solid plastic or cheesy faux woodgrain. Instruments are clear and well laid out, with the space between the speedometer and tach reserved for warning lights. The trip computer in this Sahara version gave me a readout on miles traveled, time elapsed, MPG since reset, direction traveled and outside temperature.
I averaged 20.6 miles per gallon in a mix of city, highway, 2wd and 4wd driving, far better than the EPA estimate of 17 mpg combined. As you would expect from a vehicle with a short wheelbase and a high center of gravity, it can feel twitchy over uneven pavement (or in crosswinds) until you get used to the handling. The ride certainly isn’t car-like, but it’s not unpleasant, either.
On sunny days when you want to drop the top and head for the beach or the trails, there is no substitute for a Jeep Wrangler. The Wrangler will get you anywhere you need to go, limited only by your off-road driving skills and sense of self-preservation. It’s easy to drive in the loose stuff, and even the stock tires give a decent amount of grip in sand. Surprisingly, they weren’t noisy on the highway, either.
This is why people buy Wranglers. You won’t get this view from a 911 GT3.
The 2010 Sahara is as luxurious as you can order a Wrangler, and features color matched fenders, two toned seats, height adjustable driver’s seat, power windows, power locks, remote keyless entry, an alarm system, a seven speaker sound system with subwoofer, Sirius satellite radio, traction control and 18” wheels. All Wranglers now get four wheel disc brakes with ABS, stability control with rollover sensor and hill start assist. They’ve earned a five star rating for frontal impact protection.
So in the end, I came to terms with the 2010 Jeep Wrangler Sahara. I’m not ready to go out and buy one just yet (although my wife is damn close), but I have to say I was more impressed with it than I expected to be. Personally, I’d opt for a less equipped model with the six speed transmission and the hard top, and I’d be ordering parts from the aftermarket as soon as I got back from the dealer (because I can’t stand a blank canvas). If Chrysler drops in a diesel motor, I’d be hard pressed to ignore the Wrangler much longer.
Reuters is reporting that JP Morgan Chase’s CEO for their home mortgage business hightailed it out of a congressional hearing after telling borrowers they could come to him with their mortgage problems. Too bad there were some in the audience! Whoops!
Lawmakers asked David Lowman who borrowers could turn to if they felt his bank’s employees were not helping them keep their homes.
“Come to me,” he replied to Barney Frank (D-Mass.)
A few minutes later Reuters says 50 borrowers burst from the audience with papers alleging that the bank “reneged on a pledge to help struggling homeowners”
“He ran. He ran like a dog with its tail between his legs,” said Bruce Marks of the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America (NACA), which helps homeowners avoid foreclosure. “He was scared to death because he doesn’t really want to talk to homeowners.”
Hey maybe that’s why they call it Chase. (Ok, no, it’s for Salmon P. Chase. There, you learned something because I had to make a terrible joke.)
We loved and admired the luxurious Bentley sedans over all these years and we have every right to know what exactly makes it the brand it is today. Bentley has gone head and revealed the details of the craftsmanship involved in chiseling the interior of its Mulsanne luxury sedan. The Mulsanne features trademark Bentley features that have been around since the 1920s.
Other than the signature elements, the Mulsanne interior is resplendent with mirror-matched wood veneers in Walnut, Piano Black, Oak, Bird’s Eye Maple, Vavona, Olive Ash or Sapelli Pommele. Even the seating arrangement is treated to a complex tanning procedure which creates a rich and mature leather aroma. The seat leather itself is available in a whopping 24 color options. The Mulsanne also gets an 8-inch multimedia screen, which is covered by a veneered door (when not in use), thick carpeting, and stainless steel accents that are polished carefully for 10 hours.
The big box craft store Hobby Lobby famously places full-page, Christian-themed ads every Easter in newspapers in the markets where it has stores. They also make this message the centerpiece of their Web site during the period right before and after Easter.
Sarah tells Consumerist that she noticed this when she visited the chain’s site to print out a coupon, and wrote to the company to tell them that she was offended. A Hobby Lobby representative answered that he was sorry that she was offended, but the company believes that it would conversely be “truly insensitive” not to share their religious message with all customers, Christian or not.
I, a non-Christian, visited Hobby Lobby’s website to print off a coupon before visiting their store. But after seeing their home page (image attached), I felt maybe I ought to go someplace else. And after contacting them about it (thread to follow), I was sure of it. Enjoy!
[Sarah’s original e-mail:]
As a non-Christian customer of Hobby Lobby, I find these messages to be very exclusive and insensitive. I feel quite alienated and today I’m taking my business to Michael’s, where the staff isn’t concerned with my spirituality, but with my satisfaction as a customer.
Dear Sarah,
Thank you for your email. I am sorry that you felt our message was exclusive and insensitive. That is not our intention. We feel that we are being inclusive and very sensitive; let me explain why.
In John 14:6 Jesus says “I am the way, and the truth, and the life; no one comes to the Father but through Me.” There is only one way to Heaven and that is Christ alone. We would love for everyone to come to a saving knowledge of Christ; we do not want anyone excluded. That is why we share the hope that Christ freely gives.
Since we know that Christ is the only way to heaven; it would truly be insensitive for us not to share Christ with the world.
I am sorry that you feel alienated.
[V.]
Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc.
That was the most judgmental and closed-minded response I could have hoped for. I am taking my business away from Hobby Lobby entirely. Asking to be accepted for who we are shouldn’t be too much from a customer. You can’t have another dollar of my money and I hope for your sake, you can learn to open your hearts and be truly kind and loving people, not the preachy ignorant ones you’ve proven yourselves to be.Sarah
Sarah,
I was hoping to be able to have a civil exchange with you and explain why we do what we do and answer your original email which you chose to send in. We do have “open hearts” and are “truly kind and loving people”; once again, that is why we do what we do. If we didn’t have open hearts and were kind and loving we would not tell anyone about Christ.
Let me use an analogy. Let’s say I am standing on a street corner and the person next to me (who I don’t know) steps out in to the street because they have the ‘walk’ signal. I see the walk signal BUT I also see a speeding car that is running the red light and headed right for the person next to me. Why would I not warn them? How much would I have to hate that person not to tell them of the danger they are stepping into?
We share Christ because we see the “speeding car” and want to warn people. Christ truly is the answer and he is Kind, Loving and has an open Heart. At no point in my emails have I had a closed heart, been unkind or loving in my answers to you. If you feel I have, I apologize.
If you ever in the future want to know more about Christ, please feel free to contact Need Him Ministries at 888-Need-Him. They are not affiliated with any denomination, They are people who truly Love Christ and love people.
[V.]
Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc.
It’s all about expectation management, you see. If you make your kid think he can be president, he will grow up disappointed. Tell him he’s headed for a life as an office drone and at least he’ll be mentally prepared. More »
In what is possibly the oldest device updated in recent memory, the original Verizon Samsung Omnia released in November 2008 has received an improved ROM that brings some helpful fixes and improvements.
According to Samsung:
This upgrade contains several enhancements and features. Highlights are listed below.
- Qualcomm Patch (M6801BSMBRLAZ56205) is updated. Improving overall call quality.
- Multiple Updates/Fixes applied to the Opera browser.
- Update to XT9 is applied to correct Add word issues seen by users.
- Algorithm codec has been corrected to allocate correct amount of memory when attaching a Full resolution image file to a MMS message. This will fix “Image resize Fail” seen by some users.
Download the update for the SCH-I910 from Samsung here.
Posted by Hal Dardick at 12:59 p.m.; updated at 1:47 p.m.
Chicago aldermen put off a vote today on a much-criticized measure that would have the City Council hire its own watchdog who’d need permission before launching investigations.
The postponement means the proposed ordinance won’t be voted on until next month’s council meeting. The decision came after criticism that the new watchdog office wouldn’t have the power to stop the kind of abuses that have seen dozens of aldermen sent to prison.
Ald. Brendan Reilly said he voted to defer the vote on the inspector general because he doesn’t see the point of creating a new level of bureaucracy when it is as weak as the proposed legislative watchdog.
Reilly said he would prefer the existing inspector general be given the authority to investigate the City Council, and that it be made more independent from the Mayor’s Office. But he said he would also consider supporting a stronger separate legislative investigator.
Aldermen had said the ordinance was a response to Mayor Richard Daley’s proposal to expand the powers of the city’s current inspector general, who right now can only investigate the mayor’s administration. They balked at the idea of giving the mayor more control over them, but were also worried that inaction would anger voters in next year’s city elections.
But aldermen were ready for only so much reform. Under the proposal, the new watchdog would have to seek permission to investigate an alderman. And that permission can only be sought if an accuser signs a sworn complaint – a longshot in the political atmosphere of City Hall, critics say.
The permission to start probes would have to come from the little-known Chicago Board of Ethics, which hasn’t found a single case of wrongdoing by aldermen since it was created in 1987. The same board also would determine if wrongdoing was committed if the legislative inspector general brought charges against an alderman or City Council employee.
Even if an investigation leads to any recommended discipline or reprimand, the accused will have the right to appeal that decision to a City Council committee.
Daley had sought to give the council oversight role to his Office of Inspector General, which in recent years has developed a reputation for independence under the leadership of former federal prosecutors.
Daley also proposed greater transparency for the work of the inspector general, as critics have long sought, and the transfer of internal hiring oversight from the much-criticized and beleaguered Office of Compliance to the inspector general. The ordinance approved today also does those two things.
The mayor’s office was involved in the negotiations over the council compromise, and Daley had indicated he’s OK with the measure.
Daley proposed the change in hiring oversight as part of his plan to ask a federal court this year to end years of monitoring of City Hall personnel decisions.
But Michael Shakman, the attorney who decades ago brought the case that barred politics from playing a role in most City Hall personnel decisions, has slammed the new ordinance as ineffective. He said the council shouldn’t appoint its own watchdog and predicted people would be too afraid of retaliation to swear and sign formal complaints.
When CNBC’s show “Power Lunch” wanted to gather predictions about Twitter’s future business model, the program’s hosts decided to ask a group of Harvard Business School (HBS) students who follow the economic side of social media.
To prepare for an on-air chat, several M.B.A. students from associate professor Mikolaj Jan Piskorski’s second-year elective “Competing with Social Networks,” which examines the ins and outs of online social platforms, held a brainstorming session where they discussed concepts such as billing for advertising or charging business users for premium tools and services.
To hear more about these strategies, “Power Lunch” anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera brought a TV crew to an HBS classroom on Monday (April 12) to conduct live interviews with Piskorski and several students. Caruso-Cabrera spoke first to Piskorski, who discussed the importance of social networks, and his course.
“‘Competing with Social Networks’ teaches students how to develop social strategies and use social platforms for profit,” he said. “It goes well beyond what has already been implemented and asks students to innovate and develop new solutions they can execute after they graduate.”
In the next segment, the students summarized their Twitter business plans in a way familiar to every Twitter user — in up to 140 characters. They suggested the company “capture the value of real-time data through ads, analytics, and premium tools. ”
Second-year students Adam Ludwin, Debbie Rosenbaum, and Oliver Bladek then weighed in on the pros and cons of each potential Twitter revenue model.
“Advertising is a proven business model on the Web, and Twitter is in the unique position of being able to integrate ads into real-time conversations,” Ludwin told the CNBC anchor. “The big question is how much this is worth, and whether what someone has posted on Twitter in real time is worth more than what authoritative sources say, which is why Google’s search results are valuable to advertisers.”
Whether students are going into technology-based careers or not, Ludwin said, social media make up a marketing channel that is growing rapidly and is here to stay. “Business leaders can’t afford to ignore Twitter and the wave of user-generated content that now so clearly influences the direction of products and services.”
Twitter’s purchase of Twitter iPhone client Tweetie last week, along with its launch of a Blackberry app, have raised concerns among developers who believe the company could soon crowd out their own creations. CEO Evan Williams’ response at Twitter’s Chirp conference: “I know this is a controversial decision because there were Twitter apps on these platforms—but when we did the research we found we were really underserving our users.”
Williams proceeded to show a clip of a newcomer to Twitter trying to find a Twitter app on the iPhone (That’s her looking confused in the photo above). “What am I looking for?” she asks, as she goes through several possible Twitter iPhone clients—both free and paid.
“That’s no5 how we’re going to serve users,” Williams said. “We have to make it super easy to get users on board with Twitter and get them engaged.” Williams said that the Blackberry app was responsible for 7 to 8 percent of Twitter’s new sign-ups during the first three days it was available. The more users Twitter has, Williams said, the “more opportunities” there will be for third-party developers.
Will developers buy the pitch? During a short question and answer period following Williams’ remarks, Williams was asked whether the company could make acqusitions “without alienating its developer base.” Williams’ response was meandering, saying he “hopes so” and noting that there will always be some “tension” between a platform provider and the developers who build on that platform.
Williams made one announcement during his keynote, saying that users would now be able to indicate “points of interest” where they are Tweeting from (like a specific museum). He said however that Twitter was not trying to challenge check-in startups like Gowalla and FourSquare, saying instead that he wanted to make those services “work better with Twitter.”
Related
Manufacturing and trade inventories in the U.S. increased in February by 0.5% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, according to the Commerce Department. This increase is small, but larger than January’s 0.2% rise. The inventory-to-sales ratio, another important data point the report provides, remained flat at 1.27. Its value implies that economic expansion and hiring should follow as sales increase.
Here’s a chart showing the inventory-to-sales ratio since 2001, provided by the report:
During the recession, inventories rose while sales declined. That created an imbalance resulting in layoffs. The height of the peak shows part of the reason why unemployment increased so much. At that time, firms ramped up firing to try to match the lackluster demand for goods. Since the start of 2010, however, it looks like the balance is finally getting back to around where it was from 2005-2007.
It’s important to note that this is February’s data — it does not take into account the relatively strong retail sales data also released today from March. It showed retail sales rose by 1.8%. In February, retail sales only increased by 0.2%. This indicates that, unless manufacturers, retailers and wholesalers ramped up their inventories in that month more than sales increased, the ratio should have declined in March. The lower it goes the more need for additional workers to match the demand for products.
Also notable is which sectors saw their retail inventories increase or decline:
Most rose just a bit since January, with all major categories growing less than 1% except autos and parts. Yet that same sector experienced a big 6.7% increase in retail sales during March. So much of that additional February inventory probably got depleted by consumers buying cars last month. Meanwhile a few products actually saw inventories decline further. Clothing and furniture were two notable categories in February where inventories didn’t keep up with purchases.
The decline in inventories from February 2009 shows the massive depletion that stores felt was necessary to respond to weak consumer demand at that time. All categories except food are vastly lower than they were a year ago.
Today’s data is also encouraging because it shows that any business expansion we’ve seen in the first part of 2010 isn’t outpacing consumer demand, with inventory levels remaining nearly flat. Considering how strong retail sales were in March, there’s also reason to believe that inventories will fall during the month — unless more hiring produced additional goods to compensate for the increased buying. Given the current balance of inventories and sales, there’s little reason to believe U.S. businesses should engage in many more mass layoffs unless consumer demand unexpectedly weakens significantly.
(Nav Image Credit: (nutmeg)/flickr)
MICRO ECO BUSINESS: Farming grants are now being offered by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). They have several categories which may apply to some involved in small scale farming.
Below are just a couple of past farming grants NRCS has funded, to give you an idea. Their site (link above) gives all the information you need as well as more examples of past farming grants. Be sure to also see our article at the Center for the Micro Eco-Farming Movement on farm loans and grants for more farming grant opportunities. – www.MicroEcoFarming.com
From NRCS:
California Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance (CA)
$590,048
Driving Conservation Innovation and Sustainable Winegrowing Adoption through Performance Benchmarking, Tools and Resources
The purpose is to develop, implement and evaluate a comprehensive system of industry-wide performance benchmarking, tools and resources in order to drive conservation innovation and speed adoption of sustainable practices in California wine community and other wine region and agricultural sectors to address national natural resource concerns such as water, atmospheric and soil resources, and wildlife habitat.
Pollinator Partnership (CA)
$183,953.96
Evaluating and communicating the ecological and economic costs and benefits of incorporating pollinator and other beneficial insect floral resource strips into vegetable production system
The purpose of this project is to compare the costs of installing and maintaining single-species annual and multi-species perennial floral strips in vegetable production systems with the ecological and economic benefits gained, and to translate this information for use by vegetable growers in diverse agricultural regions.
The 2011 Porsche Cayenne SUV, which will go on sale in European dealerships on May 8, has attracted orders that have beaten customer expectations, says CEO Michael Macht.
“We’re looking at an incredibly high order intake from almost all markets,” Macht said. “Orders are clearly exceeding our expectations.” He didn’t give figures.
Macht said that Porsche has plans to add models with the goal of doubling yearly sales to as many as 150,000 vehicles over the medium term.
“Everything is suggesting that this negative trend seems to have ended,” Macht. He said that improving deliveries and the 3.7 percent increase in first-half revenue “are encouraging news that indicate that the end of the long drought is indeed in sight.”
Refresher: The 2011 Porsche Cayenne S Hybrid is powered by a 333-hp 3 liter supercharged V6 gasoline engine mated to a 47-hp electric-motor, allowing it to produce a total output of 380-hp and a maximum torque of 427 b-ft. Porsche says that that allows the same performance level of a V8 engine while increasing fuel-economy by 20 percent.
– By: Omar Rana
Source: Automotive News (Subscription Required)
Article Tags: ClimateGate
The ‘hockey stick’ that became emblematic of the threat posed by climate change exaggerated the rise in temperature because it was created using ‘inappropriate’ methods, according to the head of the Royal Statistical Society.
Professor David Hand said that the research – led by US scientist Michael Mann – would have shown less dramatic results if more reliable techniques had been used to analyse the data.
Prof Hand was among a group of experts charged with investigating the “climategate” email scandal that engulfed the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) last year.
Sceptics claimed that the hacked messages showed scientists were manipulating data to support a theory of man-made global warming.
However the review, led by Lord Oxburgh into the research carried out by the centre, found no evidence of ”deliberate scientific malpractice”.
Lord Oxburgh said the scientists at the research unit arrived at their conclusions ”honestly and sensibly”.
Source: telegraph.co.uk
Palm announced today that hedge fund Harbinger Capital has purchased a 9.48% “passive stake” in the company. The purchase of 16 million shares, completed on April 12, equates to an investment of approximately $83 million at Monday’s stock price. The passive stake is one with no voting powers, otherwise this large of a share would have given Harbinger significant influence over the executive board of Palm. It is worth noting that this stock purchase is of common stock (the kind traded on the New York Stock Exchange) and does not represent an additional cash infusion for Palm.
Harbinger Capital Partners specializes in what they call “event/disaster strategies.” Their investment strategy revolves around putting money into companies they view as perched to experience significant growth and in companies that have fallen on hard financial times. Either (and both) could be used to describe their investment in Palm. Harbinger is headed by Philip Falcone, a billionaire who made his fortune from hedge fund management. The firm has made significant investments in the technology sector, and is actively engaged in the purchase and development of 4G wireless technologies. Last month Harbinger purchased satellite communications firm SkyTerra for nearly $262 million, and plans to spend as much as $4 billion building LTE network infrastructure to lease to American cellular carriers. As such, the 16 million share purchase of Palm stock is a drop in the bucket compared to how much Harbinger throws around on a daily basis.
What this means for Palm is nearly as complicated as what Elevation Partners’ investments in the company meant (Elevation Partners currently owns 30% of Palm). While Harbinger does not hold a voting stake in Palm, they can still exert significant influence on how the company is operated. It is worth noting that there are two other areas in which Harbinger invests: corporate shorts and value investments, both of which are passive investments, and have polar opposite opinions of the investment. Corporate shorting revolves around the borrowing and sale of shares that are believe to be overvalued, followed by the purchase and return to the lender of the shares at lower cost. Value investment is the more positive of the two, “where Harbinger believes a positive catalyst for value realization is already present” and the stock is poised to ride higher.
Given recent developments, we see the last option as the most likely. Even if it’s just Harbinger riding Palm shares into the takeover sunset and reaping a healthy profit, they see the stock value on the rise and want to take advantage of it. As speculated by StreetInsider.com, Harbinger also has the option to convert their passive stake into a vocal one should they not like what they see, and with the billions of dollars they have to play with, Harbinger could even make a bid for Palm themselves and take the company private.
The Charleston Gazette runs a story today providing further suggestion that a failed 2008 mining safety bill might have helped prevent last week’s deadly mining explosion in southern West Virginia. Here’s the thing: Despite the evolution of coal mining and the embrace of powerful modern machinery, the country’s rules for controlling combustible coal dust are still based on research conducted in the 1920s, the Gazette reports.
The 2008 proposal — which passed the House but was abandoned in the Senate — would have moved toward modernizing those standards by requiring federal officials to study the effectiveness of current methods used by mining companies to make coal dust incombustible.
Though the cause of last week’s blast has yet to be determined, experts suspect that it was related to methane buildup, ignited by an unknown spark. The presence of coal dust, in such cases, can exacerbate an explosion — an occurrence also suspected in the West Virginia episode. The site of the blast — the Upper Big Branch Mine — had been cited dozens of times this year for violations related to ventilation and the accumulation of coal dust.
It’s not like the issue hasn’t been on the radar, the Gazette writes:
Researchers at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health published reports in 2006 and 2009 urging regulatory agencies to re-examine the standards, but no such action has been taken.
Look for this to be another in the long list of after-the-fact reforms considered by Congress and the White House in the wake of the West Virginia tragedy.
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