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  • Initial Unemployment Claims Rise Unexpectedly

    This morning, the Labor Department announced that 460,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits for the first time — up from the week before and something of a surprise to economists, who had estimated claims to be around 435,000. These initial applications came mostly from people whose employer-provided benefits have expired, which normally happens after 26 weeks. So what was going on six months ago? The economy was still shedding nearly 10,000 jobs a day, with the unemployment rate nearing 10 percent.

    The figure throws some cold water on the otherwise improving macroeconomic figures. The country added 162,000 jobs in March, the most since 2007 — but that “jobless recovery”? Still here.

  • Rosenberg: The Only Story Is Deflation, And Consumer Spending Is Only Up Due To Mortgage Walkaways

    In this morning’s Breakfast With Dave note, David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff hits on a theme we discussed the other day, about the impact of Obama’s “Extend & Pretend” mortgage policy.

    As originally argued by Paul Jackson at HousingWire, it’s the fact that millions of families are essentially living mortgage-free which explains the seeming disconnect between sagging housing and rebounding consumer spending.

    Here’s Rosie:

    There is no better real-world example of this than in the airline business.  Have a
    look at Summer Airfare Sales Are Back on page B1 of yesterday’s USA Today.
    Shopping-Center Malaise in yesterday’s WSJ (page C9) is another example —
    many things are “up” from last years’ detonated levels but what are not are
    average lease rates, which have deflated 3% on a YoY basis.  Manhattan
    apartment rents are down 6.1% YoY and property prices have deflated 7%, on
    average.  There is no inflation in the real economy outside of gasoline, health
    care and State taxes and all of these are actually deflationary drains on
    consumer cash flow.  

    For the time being, strategic mortgage defaults and higher tax refunds are
    keeping consumer spending afloat.  Yes, employment conditions have improved
    but not enough ostensibly to prevent wage contraction.  However, when wages,
    rents, property prices, credit and now the money supply are all contracting, it is
    very difficult to paint an inflationary picture no matter what China is doing to
    commodity prices.  Did you ever think we would see $145/bbl oil in our lifetime
    to then only see headline inflation (we’re talking about the PCE here for the folks
    who despise the CPI) down to 2.0% and core down to 1.0% a mere two years
    later?  The economy may be enjoying something of a statistical bounce just as
    so many other post-bubble countries managed to do after the initial sharp
    downdraft — but it’s like a rubber ball … it bounces up temporarily and then
    heads back to the floor and then bounces again but with less veracity, to again
    hit the floor and so on.  That is the economic performance and outlook — brief
    bounces but the overall trajectory is down, not up.  The primary trend, and this is
    definitely not in the mainstream, is one of deflation, not inflation.  The fact that
    so many believe in inflation makes this theme that much more appealing.  

    Remember Bob Farrell’s Rule number 9: “When all the experts and forecasts
    agree, something else is going to happen.”  The most dangerous thing anyone
    can do right now is follow the herd mentality, and yet that is exactly what is
    starting to happen.   

    But we have to wonder: can you actually get paid betting against inflation right now? Perhaps, but right now inflation expectations are extremely low. Sure yakkers are talking about inflation, but that’s not what the market is anticipating.

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • LAX terminals reopened after being temporarily closed because of security breach

    Lanow.lax Hundreds of travelers waited on the sidewalk at LAX Thursday morning when officials shut down three terminals and delayed at least 14 flights because of a security breach.

    All terminals were reopened within two hours of the 5 a.m. incident after authorities  found a man who did not go through proper security
    screening, officials said.

    Los Angeles International Airport  spokeswoman Nancy Castles said the man was selected for secondary screening but instead picked up his carry-on bag and went through Terminal 7 around 5 a.m. Thursday.

    Security screening at that terminal and connecting terminals 5 and 6 was halted while airport police looked for the man. The terminals house United, Continental, Delta and smaller airlines. Airport police located the man and re-screened his bag.

    — Kate Linthicum

    Photo: Long lines form in front of Terminal 5 at Los Angeles International Airport after a suspected security breach. Credit: Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times

  • Dendreon Hires Roche Sales Boss

    Luke Timmerman wrote:

    Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN), the Seattle-based developer of an immune-stimulating drug for prostate cancer, said today it has hired Varun Nanda to be its senior vice president of commercial operations. Nanda was formerly the senior vice president and head of global oncology for Roche, the world’s largest maker of cancer drugs, with hits like rituximab (Rituxan), bevacizumab (Avastin), and trastuzumab (Herceptin). Nanda’s responsibility will be to lead the commercial push for Dendreon’s sipuleucel-T (Provenge), including its sales and marketing. The FDA has a deadline of May 1 to complete its review of Dendreon’s application to market the drug in the U.S.

    UNDERWRITERS AND PARTNERS



























  • Fancy working for Oxfam Midlands?

    We have two fixed-term contracts coming up in our office so this could be your chance to work for Oxfam’s Campaigns team in the Midlands!

    If you’ve got expert knowledge of the Midlands political environment and the skills to help achieve Oxfam’s campaigns objectives by effectively engaging with political audiences in the region, you should apply for the post of Regional Political Campaigner. It’s a 12-month maternity cover and the application deadline is 26th April 2010. Interviews will take place in Birmingham on 11th May 2010. More information about the post and how to apply can be found here.

    If you have activism experience and are keen to support and guide Oxfam activists throughout the Midlands, then you should apply for the post of Regional Activism Campaigner. It’s an 8-month fixed term contract and the deadline for applications is 23rd April 2010. Interviews will take place in Birmingham on Thursday, 29th April 2010. More information about the post and how to apply can be found here.

  • What the Doodle!?: Come see my skills of an artist!

    I spent a fairly good number of hours back in the day on a website called iSketch.net. The premise was simple – an online chat room, with a game of Pictionary going on in the background. Games went by quickly, with mouse/trackball drawings of the words provided, with the artist rotating each round.

    You have no idea how happy I was when I came across What the Doodle!? The core game play is effectively the same as iSketch – on a smaller scale. When you first load the app, you’re greeted by a welcome screen and several menu items to join a public/private game, get instructions, set some options, or even set up a small profile for your account. You can even doodle a small avatar that pops up when you win a game, or on the leader boards.

    Speaking of the game, each game starts with five players, and goes for 10 rounds. Drawing duties rotate from player to player, and words are picked based on the game difficulty chosen. The artist then has one minute to sketch the word on their screen while the other players attempt to guess the word. The artist gets one point if there word is guessed, and the player that correctly guesses the word gets a point. If nobody guessed the word, the artist loses a point. The player with the most points at the end of 10 rounds wins the game.

    You can check your profile to see how many points you’ve accumulated, and your overall rank. As of this moment, my 217 points are good for 5,671st place. Guess I need to work on my skills of an artist! (Yes, the loosely based Strong Bad quote is intentional).

    The Good

    • Addictive gameplay – if you like Pictionary, you’ll like WTD
    • Slick UI – very clean and easy to navigate
    • Drawing is responsive, and there are lots of color options

    The Bad

    • This game will likely be more difficult on a phone with no hardware keyboard
    • Occasionally a very obscure word will pop up, even on Easy

    What the Doodle!? was a winner of ADC2, and for good reason – the app is very polished, and the game is lots of fun. What the Doodle!? is available in the Android Market for UK£1.00 (about $1.50), with a Lite version available for free.




    Note: This review was submitted by Justin Jelinek as part of our app review contest.

    Related Posts

  • Try this freeware word processing application

    abiword-grab.gifOnce becoming familiar with a certain application, many
    people can
    find it difficult to migrate to an alternative, Microsoft Word being a prime example. That’s not to say
    there aren’t reasons that warrant you moving to an alternative. As with many other office
    applications, Word is an expensive
    piece of software and if you’re on a budget, it’s not always a viable
    option. Other reasons people look for alternatives is that they simply
    do not
    require the features that ship with large applications such as Word.

    AbiWord
    2.8.3

    is a free word processor that recognises and enables you to open,
    edit and
    save Word documents. The application itself is obviously not
    as
    feature rich as Word, but it still offers extensive functionality, more
    than enough for the average user but in a smaller package. There are also free plug-ins
    available via the AbiWord website.

    AbiWord
    2.8.3
    link.

  • Bruno Tonioli Brands Kate Gosselin “Crap” On “Lopez Tonight”

    After watching Kate Gosselin’s rhythmless paso doble to the sounds of Lady Gaga’s “Paparazzi” on Monday night’s Dancing with the Stars, many DWTS fans were left scratching their heads and looking for the precise word to describe Kate’s effed-up brand of bad two-steppin’. After all, “dreadful” just doesn’t seem to capture the true essence of her suckery. Thank goodness for Bruno Tonioli! Never one to mince words, B hit TBS’ Lopez Tonight on Wednesday to celebrate DWTS finally surpassing American Idol as the nation’s most watched program. Luckily for us, the conversation quickly turned to this season’s most buzzed about contestant, Kate Gosselin — and finally someone came up with the appropriate term to characterize her dancing: “Crap” just about sums it up!

    (Fast forward to 1:25 for the jackpot!)

    “Kate is pretty dreadful,” Bruno joked. “She’s crap — but in a nice way….”

    Bruno even compared Kate to one the most critically panned movies of 2009.

    “She is entertaining. People like disaster movies. We’ve got our own disaster movie there everyday. 2012 is nothing compared to the catastrophe she produces….”


  • Greece crisis made worse by rising rates

    It's a stretch to assign any similarity between Canada's red-hot economy and debt-plagued Greece these days, but almost two decades ago, Canada's growing debt problems were also causing headaches for investors.

    Canada's saving grace back then was a period of falling interest rates – something Greece, unfortunately, won't be able to rely on.

    "Canada while not in exactly the same boat, experienced a similiar set of circumstances in the 1990s," Stewart Hall, an economist at HSBC Canada said.

    "Essentially we shared the same need to introduce a program of fiscal austerity as markets at the time began to push back against the seemingly unending supply of Canadian paper."

    Mr. Hall said Canada's debt burden was eased by a protracted period in which interest rates cascaded lower. That helped lower the debt service costs at the same time that government was wrestling the deficit lower through reduced spending.

    For Greece, however, the situation is made considerably more challenging under the auspices of a rising rate structure, he said. 

    "As concern grows and bond spreads blow out, so too do the funding and servicing costs of that pile of Greek debt begin to mount. Which is to say, more tax revenues begin to get eaten up by servicing costs applying more pressure on fiscal authorities," the economist said. 

    David Pett

  • Few hints of trouble in Massey Energy’s filings …

    It’s becoming clear that Massey Energy (MEE), which owns the Upper Big Branch mine in West Virginia where 25 miners died after an explosion this week, has had a spotty regulatory history.

    By one count, the Upper Big Branch alone had 3,007 violations over the last 15 years (that’s nearly three a week) and more than 600 over the last year-plus; Bloomberg News reports that it racked up $900,000 in fines over the last year alone. One of the bigger fines it’s contesting: A recent one centering on the “ventilation systems that are supposed to prevent the buildup of methane gas and coal dust that can cause explosions.”

    But how much warning did Massey’s investors have? Certainly, mining has always been risky (though it’s safer than logging, farming and fishing), and Massey includes safety-and-health regulatory risks in its boilerplate risk factors, if generically:

    “The Mine Safety and Health Administration (“MSHA”) or other federal or state regulatory agencies may order certain of our mines to be temporarily or permanently closed, which could adversely affect our ability to meet our customers’ demands.”

    In an 8-K filed March 24 — just a couple weeks before the Upper Big Branch explosion — Massey disclosed an underwriting agreement with UBS Securities to offer 8.5 million shares. Deep in the agreement itself (item [z] in a list of representations and warranties) Massey asserts that

    “neither the Company nor any of its subsidiaries has sustained, since the date of the latest financial statements of the Company … any material loss or interference with its business that is material to the business of the Company and its subsidiaries taken as a whole from fire, explosion, flood or other calamity, whether or not covered by insurance, or from any court or governmental action, order or decree, otherwise than as set forth or contemplated in the Registration Statement (excluding the exhibits thereto) … “

    So it could be argued that investors might have known such a disaster was possible. But it doesn’t look like Massey was very transparent about what now looks like a steady drumbeat of regulatory criticism about its operations, and the Upper Big Branch in particular. Consider this chart of violations that the New York Times Green Inc. blog reposted, with context:

    By contrast, the company’s disclosures are peppered with generic statements about the risk that new safety or environmental regulation might bring:

    “Numerous governmental permits and approvals are required for mining operations. … All requirements imposed by such authorities may be costly and time-consuming and may delay commencement or continuation of exploration or production operations. … Permits we need may involve requirements that may be changed or interpreted in a manner that restricts our ability to conduct our mining operations or to do so profitably. Future legislation and administrative regulations may increasingly emphasize the protection of the environment, health and safety and, as a consequence, our activities may be more closely regulated. “

    But in more than 3,000 words in Massey’s 10-K about regulation, litigation and other contingencies — from well-water litigation and customer disputes to lawsuits over flooding and road-damage from coal trucks — it doesn’t once mention the steady stream of violations that have come to light from state regulators or the Mine Safety & Health Administration since Monday’s tragic accident.

    The closest thing to a warning we’ve found in recent filings may be these sentences, from p. 42 of an 80-plus page merger and acquisition agreement filed March 17 — though it’s far from clear which “Companies” the following passage refers to, or what violations might be outstanding, because the relevant schedules don’t seem to have been filed publicly:

    “Schedule 6.13(a) sets forth an accurate and complete listing of all outstanding and unabated violations under the Environmental and Mining Laws against the Companies or any Company, including those being contested in good faith and those for which abatement is not yet required. Except as set forth in Schedule 6.13(a) and except as would not have or reasonably be expected to have a Material Adverse Effect on the Companies, the Companies are in compliance with Environmental and Mining Laws. “

    Massey does disclose that it doesn’t carry business interruption insurance — something that Bloomberg News notes has “come in handy” for competitors — and elsewhere says that if it can’t mine the coal it’s promised to customers, it may have to buy it for them.

    The loss of life at Upper Big Branch is undeniable. It remains to be seen, of course, whether the tragedy at Upper Big Branch will prove financially material for Massey — the real test of how adequate Massey’s disclosures have been. Certainly, the ratings agencies are worried, and the 15% drop in Massey’s shares since Monday afternoon suggests that investors are as well.

    Too bad the routine disclosures in the filings provided such little warning.

    Image source: public.resource.org via Flickr


  • CA-36: Winograd Denies Harman CDP Endorsement

    Congressional candidate Marcy Winograd (photo: 350.org via Flickr)

    In a fairly impressive feat of organizing, Marcy Winograd, the progressive challenger to Jane Harman in California’s 36th District, was able to pull Harman’s state party endorsement after amassing enough objections from state party delegates. From the press release:

    Congressional Candidate Marcy Winograd (CA-36), working with the Progressive Caucus of the California Democratic Party (CDP), successfully pulled opponent Jane Harman’s Party endorsement prior to the April 16th-18th CDP convention in
    Los Angeles.

    This means neither candidate will go into the convention with a pre-endorsement — and that a floor debate is likely over which candidate to endorse in the 36th congressional district race. Harman was the only incumbent to have her endorsement pulled by delegates to the California Democratic Party.

    After calling delegates throughout the state, the Winograd for Congress campaign, working with leadership of the Party’s Progressive Caucus, Women’s Caucus, Rural Caucus, and Veterans Caucus, collected 329 delegate objections, more than the bylaws’ requirement of 300 to pull a local pre-endorsement of Harman by elected officials, appointed delegates, and others […]

    Winograd raises pertinent questions, “What does the California Democratic Party stand for? Who do we endorse? Someone who rushes us to war, covers up illegal wiretapping,
    and votes with Wall Street to make it easier for banks to foreclose? Or someone committed to global diplomacy, the Bill of Rights, and an end to run-away greed on Wall Street? I look forward to this debate on the floor of the California Democratic Party convention as we
    continue the fight for the heart and soul of our Party.”

    Let me take a stab at explaining this. Nobody gets an endorsement from the state Democratic Party until the convention, which is next weekend. But delegates attend “pre-endorsement” conferences to state their preferences, I believe out of a desire to make things tidier at the CDP. However, this means that the delegates in the particular district, not the entire state party, really makes the early endorsement decision, even though the whole state party’s resources and imprimatur eventually go with that endorsement.

    Harman won that pre-endorsement conference with around 70% of the vote. But there’s an option in the bylaws where an opponent can collect 300 signatures – about 1/6 of the entire state party delegates – to pull the pre-endorsement. In this case, that means that the Winograd/Harman endorsement will be fought out on the floor of the convention on Sunday. I believe Harman would actually need a lower threshold to win the endorsement than Winograd will, given her status as the incumbent.

    Now, the question arises, does the CDP endorsement matter? Well, any endorsed candidate can get their name on slate mailers and door hangers sent out by the CDP. They typically get an increased amount of organizing from CDP precinct captains. It’s a quick, cheap and easy way to boost advertising and give a patina of authority.

    Harman, one of the richest members of Congress, won’t need the financial aid of having the CDP doing her mail campaign. But if this ends, as is likely, with no endorsement, that’s a pretty big victory from Winograd’s perspective, as Harman would be the only incumbent member of Congress in the state not endorsed by the CDP.

    In addition, this represents a real organizing victory. Winograd got these 329 objections in a little less than a week. I know I received dozens of emails about it (I’m a former state party delegate who actually served with Marcy). The Winograd campaign showed their ability to realize a goal and turn out supporters quickly, using volunteers and staff. If they can bring the same kind of tenacity to turning out voters, she has a chance at the upset.

    In addition, I can tell you that some incumbent state legislators joined the grassroots activists in signing the objection, suggesting that Harman’s establishment support is not monolithic.

    Ultimately, the endorsement doesn’t mean a ton, but as an example of good organizing, Winograd proved her mettle. And the fight on the floor should be interesting (although if I had to guess, based on the rules involved I’d say “no endorsement” is the most likely outcome). Not only will I be at the convention next weekend, but a certain Jane Hamsher is attending as well.

  • Breakfast at Kalaheo Cafe & Coffee Co, Kalaheo

    Kalaheo Cafe & Coffee Co

    Another great breakfast near the South shore on Kauai is the Kalaheo Cafe and Coffee Co. I liked it so much, that I actually ate there twice on my visit (and it was a quick trip out there!). The place is just a few miles from Poipu and is right off the main highway, so it’s easy to find. It can get pretty busy in the morning with both locals and tourists, but there is a large parking lot and the service is quick.

    Going inside, the restaurant is very cute with a great Hawaiian, coffee shop feel to it. Peruse the menu, order at the counter and take a seat so servers can bring your order out to you. There is also a take out counter for bakery and coffee items. The menu features lots of egg dishes, omelettes, pancakes and french toast. If you want something a little lighter, there are also egg breakfast sandwiches available, like the Longboard, which was like a BLT with egg and provolone cheese added to it.

    Kalaheo Cafe & Coffee Co, interior

    (more…)

  • Motorola Titanium (XT800) Is Coming To South Korea Complete With 2.0

     

    South Korea soon will get to enjoy a new Motorola Android phone — it’s second, actually. Motorola’s first android phone in South Korea is the Motoroi (XT720), and like the Motoroi, the Titanium will be running on Android 2.0. It also has a 480 x 854 touchscreen display, WiFi, 3.5mm headset jack, and a 5MP autofocus camera that also records video with D1.

    This isn’t our first introduction to the Titanium (XT800), We actually got a Hands on with (at the time) China-Only Moto XT800. [unwiredview]

  • Former Yahoo! Exec. Joins Branson’s Cleantech PE Fund

    Yahoo! Europe former Managing Director Toby Coppel is joining Richard Branson’s cleantech-focused private equity fund Virgin Green Fund as a partner in London. The move is yet another indication of how straight technologists are going green and heading to cleantech ventures.

    As chief strategy officer of Yahoo’s European unit Coppel oversaw $5 billion of acquisitions, including the $1 billion investment in Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce site.

    On joining Virgin Green, Coppell said:

    [Virgin Green] It is the perfect platform for me to leverage my investment and operating experience in technology, media and communications to identify and manage attractive investment opportunities.

    Coppel stepped down from Yahoo! in December 2008. Since leaving he’s joined a number of corporate board. Last fall he joined the board of environmental intelligence firm Avoiding Mass Extinctions Engine (AMEE), reports PaidContent.org.

    Image: PaidContent.org

  • Monthly Depreciation in February Remains Stable, but Calls Timing of the Bottom into Question

    The February Zillow Real Estate Market Reports come out today, and show continued depreciation in home values across much of the country. The national Zillow Home Value Index fell 5.4% year-over-year, and fell 0.5% month-over-month.

    The good news is that the rate of monthly decline has improved over the past year. Home values fell 0.8% from January 2009 to February 2009, compared with a 0.5% decline from January 2010 to February 2010.

    But the bad news is that, in early 2009, the rate of decline was shrinking (from -1% in January to -0.8% in February), signaling the market was heading toward a bottom. In the past few months, month-over-month changes are holding flat or getting worse – a trend which could slightly extend the time it takes to reach bottom. See Figure 1 for historical context.

    Of the 25 largest markets for which we have data, two – Las Vegas and Philadelphia – saw positive month-over-month change, while another two – L.A. and San Francisco – remained flat. Additionally, almost 1 in 1,000 homes foreclosed in February, which is near the historical high-water mark. Foreclosure re-sales as a percentage of all transactions notched up again in February to 22.35%.

    Current monthly changes in home values add substantial downside risk to our forecast that home values will reach bottom by June 2010. We’ve been expecting that monthly depreciation rates would stay negative but improve slightly in the first half of this year, but we’ve seen much less traction in reducing monthly depreciation rates than we expected.

  • How Fast Can You Go For $59,500?

    Photo: xqsmephotography.com

    If you’re the buyer of the world’s first drivable V8 Ariel Atom, the answer is very fast. Scary fast, on par with the Can-Am cars of the early 1970s. If you’re looking for the ultimate track toy and you’ve got 60 large to spend on it, you’ll find this particular Atom on eBay.

    The car was built by Palatov Motorsport, who shoehorned a Hartley H1 2.8 liter V8 in the Atom’s chassis. The motor is dyno tested at 400hp at 10,000 rpm, pretty damn lofty for a V8. Palatov stiffened the rear uprights and braced the chassis to accommodate the car’s horsepower. Despite sporting a V8 motor, the car weighs in at 1,250 pounds, less than the stock 4 cylinder models.

    I’ve never driven a car that truly scared me, but I’d be willing to bet that this would fit the bill. All that power in a rear engined car with no downforce leaves no margin for error; one mistake at speed and it’s over, Johnny.

    Source: eBay, via Two Seats Or Less


  • Lamborghini Reventon recebe novo jogo de rodas ADV1

    Imagens do Reventon personalizado

    Se você for um dos 20 abastados felizardos que terão um Lamborghini Reventon, e você quiser personalizá-lo um pouco mais o seu novo carro, agora existe uma nova opção de rodas da ADV1 para o supercarro.

    Como o próprio Reventon já possui uma aparência chamativa, o novo jogo de rodas não chama tanto a atenção como em outros modelos mais humildes, mesmo assim é uma opção para deixar o carro com um visual ainda mais agressivo.

    Confiram as imagens a seguir e vejam a diferença do novo jogo de rodas. Se bem que o conjunto original do carro também não deixa a desejar, mas ai vai do gosto de cada um. Se tiver muito dinheiro para gastar em um carro e ainda assim não estiver satisfeito com sua beleza, tudo é possível de acordo com seu bolso.

    Imagens do Reventon personalizado
    Imagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizadoImagens do Reventon personalizado

    Via | Top Speed


  • You Can Sleep In! Tips for Making Brunch Ahead of Time

    2008_12_01-Breakfast.jpgHere’s the thing about brunch parties: You have to forget about pancakes, waffles, and omelettes, even scrambled eggs (although these look divine). Hosting guests a mere hour or two after you wake up requires make-ahead dishes. These tips will allow you to breezily greet your friends with a mimosa rather than bedhead and a flour-covered nightgown.

    Read Full Post

  • Multinational Strategies and Developing Countries in Historical Perspective

    Published: April 8, 2010
    Paper Released: March 2010
    Author: Geoffrey Jones

    Executive Summary:

    HBS professor Geoffrey Jones offers a historical analysis of the strategies of multinationals from developed countries in developing countries. His central argument, that strategies were shaped by the trade-off between opportunity and risk, highlights how three broad environmental factors determined the trade-off. The first was the prevailing political economy, including the policies of both host and home governments, and the international legal framework. The second was the market and resources of the host country. The third was competition from local firms. Jones explores the impact of these factors on corporate strategies during the three eras in the modern history of globalization from the nineteenth century until the present day. He argues that the performance of specific multinationals depended on the extent to which their internal capabilities enabled them to respond to these external opportunities and threats. The paper highlights in particular the changing nature of political risk faced by multinationals. The era of expropriation has, for the moment, largely passed, but multinationals now experience new kinds of policy risk, and new forms of home country political risk also, such as the Alien Tort Claims Act in the United States. Key concepts include:

    • The strategies of multinationals in the developing world have changed over time. Initially
      they sought access to resources through exclusive contracts. As anti-globalization policies increased, they needed enhanced political contacts, and strengthened local managements. The pursuit of markets and lower cost labor is now the central focus. They still need local political and business contacts, but also have to respond to local competition and demands to incorporate local relevance into global products.
    • Multinationals initially enjoyed insider advantages in colonial regimes. With decolonization, political risk rose sharply. They were often expropriated, and many divested. Now multinationals face regular, adverse shifts in policy by host governments.
    • The recent period of globalization has also seen the growth of home country political risk. In particular, multinationals face criticism and legal action for real or alleged environmental or human rights abuses in developing countries.
    • Developing countries, or at least the larger and more fast-growing ones in Asia and Latin America, are increasingly seen as indispensable by multinationals in every industry. However recent decades have seen a sharp growth of highly competitive local firms, who can compete with frugal engineering, and are going global.

    Abstract

    This working paper offers a historical analysis of the strategies of multinationals from developed countries in developing countries. The central argument is that strategies were shaped by the trade-off between opportunity and risk. Three broad environmental factors determined the trade-off. The first was the prevailing political economy, including the policies of both host and home governments, and the international legal framework. The second was the market and resources of the host country. The third factor was competition from local firms. The impact of these factors on corporate strategies is explored during the three eras in the modern history of globalization from the nineteenth century until the present day. The performance of specific multinationals depended on the extent to which their internal capabilities enabled them to respond to these external opportunities and threats.
    58 pages.

    Paper Information

  • Fossils shake up our family tree









    Brett Eloff / Courtesy of Lee Berger, Univ. of the Witwatersrand

    Rock partially encases the cranium of a juvenile male representing the species
    designated Australopithecus sediba. The skull was found in a South African cave.




    Well-preserved fossils found in a South African cave pit mark an important transition between the 3.2 million-year-old pre-human known as Lucy and our own branch of the evolutionary family tree. That much, anthropologists can agree on. But exactly where do they fit in that transition? That’s the subject of a high-profile debate.


    It may be tempting to call these fossils a “missing link,” as some of the leaked news reports did earlier this week. But scientists say that’s too simplistic a term for what the bones signify.


    There are so many elements to the tale that it’s hard to know where to start. Here are the main points relating to the find, announced today by the journal Science:

    …(read more)