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  • Why Geithner and Summers may stick around for a while

    I am writing a column on this, given the rumors about Larry Summers soon departing.  But a few quick thoughts:

    1) The only folks who really seem hot for these guys to leave are liberal activist groups and union folks. Basically the Huffington Post crowd who want to break up the banks and spend another trillion dollars on stimulus.

    2) I think the WH believes the economy will begin to be a slight breeze at its back in the months ahead, a not unreasonable economic conclusion. Why muddy the narrative with departures?

    3) If Summers is sick of the job, he’s sick of the job. Whatever. But I don’t think there is a great desire to push him out by the WH political team or the POTUS.

    4)  As for Geithner, his slow start, including tax troubles, made him a permanent subject for resignation rumors. But the success of the stress tests and perhaps now some movement on the China currency issue  have thickened his heat shield considerably.

    5) What if the Dems lose both houses of Congress in the fall? The assumption is that there will be a total house cleaning on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue as well. I am not so sure about that.  Replacements for the econ team would be tough to find given the party’s anti-Wall Street fervor, especially at Treasury. Plus, if Obama thinks his policies are right and progress is being made, then he is is going to stick. Recall that after the 1982 disaster for Republicans, President Reagan didn’t replace Don Regan at Treasury. Now after the Dem 1994 disaster, Lloyd Bentsen did leave, but he was never going to be a long-termer anyway.

  • Matrix: How To Choose Social Media Programs by Brand, Lifestyle, Product or Location

    Brands confused by choices on how to deploy social media programs
    I recently spoke to the global marketing team at a large technology company, and one of the questions being wrestled with was deciding if social media efforts should be setup by brand, vs product teams wanting to create their own unique pages and experiences.  A specific question emerged “Should we setup our efforts by product type or by brand?” There are drawbacks and upsides to each of these, and I wanted to layout the ramifications.

    [Whether companies setup their social programs by ‘Brand, Lifestyle, Product, or Location’ they must choose wisely. Each deployment as a different benefit and drawback. The savvy will use in combination.]

    Brands who choose poorly risk community backlash -those that do not choose risk worse
    Companies that choose poorly will have wasted internal efforts and resources, set up false expectations for customers and may struggle with trying to redact a program in public where customers are already assembling. In particular, social failures like Wal-Mart’s branded community ‘The Hub’ have now become a case study of doing it wrong. Yet having no strategy means that product teams, regional teams, and individual regions will do whatever they want –causing clean up for corporate late.

    Matrix: How To Choose Social Media Programs by Brand, Lifestyle, Product or Location

    What it is: Benefits: Drawbacks: What no one tells you:
    Brand Companies often created their own Facebook/Twitter/Blog site focused on the company logo, brand, and corporate news.  See early pioneer Direct2Dell, Sony Electronics Twitter, GM’s Fastlane Blog On brand. One stop shop for all things related to the brand.  Easy place to find company news, product announcements.  Often, corporate teams can support an ongoing program Less trusted. Will often lack engagement, personality, and as a result decreased trust.  If brand doesn’t allow customers to talk to each other or self-express, it’s odd talking to a logo. It’s important to set expectations on the type of communications that will happen, be sure to have a community policy in order to enforce. See Nestle’ case example
    Lifestyle Brands created lifestyle communities such as communities for Wells Fargo’s teen, Amex’s small business owners, or even by cultures like Asian Avenue or BlackPlanet Staying power. By joining customers in the way they already self-organize you’re matching their existing needs –beyond your product push Off message. Less control over the conversation which may extend beyond your brand and products and talk about what matters in their life.  Product focused teams may not have right mindset ‘customer-first’ mindset. First, find where they may already exist and consider joining. Create your own lifestyle deployment only to meet an unmet need.  Often this is at the mouth of the marketing funnel.
    Product Building a Facebook, Blog or Twitter feed for a specific product or product line.  See the Playstation blog, Doritos Facebook page, Specific info. Meets the needs of the Product Marketing Manager to give tight information about a product Granular and insular. Lack of customer focus and risk of investing in a community that could become irrelevant if the product reaches end of life. Lack of solution sell to lifestyle as consumer may want to purchase several products. If your product has staying power and a thriving community around it (like Xbox, PS3) with sub products around it it may make sense.  Consider this towards the bottom of the marketing funnel, or even customer support.
    Location Restaurants, hotels, and retail stores may want to create their own Facebook, MySpace, Yelp experience. Or specific regions may have different product sets and create their own communities to meet a unique culture.  See Four Seasons Twitter index Hyper targeted. Local markets may benefit from geo location marketing as location based social networks like GoWalla, FourSquare, MyTown, and Yelp grow.  Provide unique local experience. Lack of control. These individual pages may be setup by the managers daughter and lack true long term resources or ability to fend of sophisticated situations. Danger in these sites becoming abandoned over time, with no clear way to retire them without community backlash. Likely, this is already happening. Get ahead of it and provide the right training, processes, and hotlines for these disparate groups to have autonomy –but within clear set of guardrails protecting your brand.

    How to Choose The Right Mix:

    • First, be customer focused. Companies should first identify the social graphics of their customer base to understand where they are online.  Secondly, they should understand their social behaviors, who influences them, and how they influence others.  In most cases, customers have already assembled their own communities and analysis should be done on how to join them where they already are.
    • For best results, use in combinations. Rarely is the world an ‘or’ but an ‘and’.  Companies should know when to use these in an orchestrated combinations.  Sophisticated social strategists are mapping all of their programs against marketing funnels to know which tool should be used during what customer phase.
    • Think long term –not just by campaign. Don’t launch short term social efforts unless it’s just around a single event and the expectations are clearly set up front.  Grown fans, followers, or subscribers is an investment that will cost you, so plan on doing this for the long term –not a short one-off campaign.  Remember, in most cases, customer communities have been here before your brand was on the social web, and likely they will be here after your brand.
  • HTC Incredible three weeks away?

    Best Buy HTC Incredible

    It’s difficult to blink these days without some new rumor about the HTC Incredible making headlines.  Yesterday, Aaron posted a brief screenshot of an e-mail to Verizon employees suggesting that “New Devices [will be] Launching Really Soon!”  But other then a few cryptic messages (perhaps to throw people off), there was absolutely no information as to what devices were being referenced.

    Later in the day, another document was leaked entitled “April Highlights” (see picture above), and as you can see, at the bottom of the list of “New Device Launches” sits the infamous HTC Incredible with a launch date of April 29.  There have been some conflicting reports as to whether the device will launch on the 25th of April or the 29th.  According to Engadget, Verizon phones historically launch on Sundays, which gives merit to the 25th.  On the other hand, AndroidandMe is suggesting that “several trusted sources” are confirming an April 29 launch.  A third possible option is that both launch dates are accurate and that the Incredible will launch on the 25th exclusively through Verizon and will come to BestBuy on the 29th.

    Regardless of the specific dates, if the time frame is accurate, some of us are looking at getting our paws on the Incredible in roughly three weeks.  So, who’s getting excited?  Leave your thoughts in the comments!

    Via Engadget, AndroidandMe


  • Texas AG: 5 more states to join health care lawsuit

    [JURIST] Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott announced Wednesday that five additional states will join in a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the recently enacted Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The five states – Indiana, North Dakota, Mississippi, Nevada, and Arizona – will join 13 other states in a legal battle that began last month 23 when the complaint seeking an injunction and declaratory relief was filed in a Florida federal court. Abbott commented on the impact of the inclusion of additional states and voiced his concern over the potential effects the health care legislation will have on Texas and the US:
    No public policy goal – no matter how important or well-intended – can be allowed to trample the protections and rights guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution. The federal health care legislation violates our Constitution, imposes an unprecedented mandate on individual Texans, and will require the Texas taxpayers to spend billions of additional dollars on health care programs. The addition of five new states to our bipartisan legal challenge reflects broad, nationwide concern about the constitutionality of this sweeping and unprecedented federal legislation.The other states involved in the suit are Florida, South Carolina, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Washington, Colorado, Michigan, Utah, Alabama, South Dakota, and Idaho. Among the allegations in the suit are violations of Article I and the Tenth Amendment of the Constitution, committed by levying a tax without regard to census data, property, or profession, and for invading the the sovereignty of the states. The plaintiffs also assert that the law should not be upheld under the commerce clause. Last month, Idaho Governor CL Otter signed a bill barring the federal mandate to purchase health insurance. Virginia Governor Bob McDonald has indicated that he will sign a similar bill recently passed by the Virginia legislature. President Barack Obama signed the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act into law last week, which addressed concerns raised by the original bill, including provisions to help uninsured Americans pay for coverage, concerns over the effects to Medicare, and lowering the penalty for not buying insurance.

  • San Diego Life Sciences 2030, in Pictures

    xcon2030
    Luke Timmerman wrote:

    It’s hard to believe, but eight days have zipped by since we held the big Xconomy event on the 20-year outlook for life sciences in San Diego. Sure, I already wrote up a little summary of what our great panel of speakers had to say at this event, but I admit I have been a little on the tardy side when it comes to posting the photo gallery.

    For those who missed the earlier coverage, this event packed the house at Biogen Idec in San Diego, with about 175 people who came to hear from a stellar panel of speakers, to meet some of San Diego’s coolest life sciences startups, and to indulge in some high-level networking. The panel was moderated by John Mendlein of Fate Therapeutics,was was joined by Paul Schimmel of The Scripps Research Institute, Dan Bradbury of Amylin Pharmaceuticals, and Rusty Gage of the Salk Institute for Biological Studies. We also heard brief 4-minute “burst” presentations from Ambrx, Helixis, Receptos, and VentiRx Pharmaceuticals.

    While I was busy keeping everything on track and running with a microphone to get questions from the audience, Xconomy’s founder and CEO Bob Buderi snapped the images below on his digital camera. We heard a lot of feedback that people really enjoyed themselves, and I think they weren’t just saying that to be nice. If you missed the festivities, don’t worry, we plan to hold more events like this in San Diego.

    But for today, click here to enjoy the photos. And next time, yes, I’ll try to get them posted a little sooner.











  • HuffPo Launches Separate ‘Twitter Edition’; More Focus On Real-Time News


    Arianna Huffington

    The Huffington Post is launching a “Twitter edition” that is intended to serve as an extension and a distinct entity from the main news and opinion site, the company told paidContent. The primary purpose is to harness the social networking aspects of the site to create a real-time news service for each of HuffPo’s 19 sections. The move follows the introduction of sponsored Tweets across a number of channels as part of president and chief revenue officer Greg Coleman’s goal doubling HuffPo’s revenue over the next year. But in separate conversations with co-founder and editor-in-chief Arianna Huffington, CEO Eric Hippeau and chairman Ken Lerer, I was told that the advertising part is secondary, at least for the moment.

    Right now, the key thing is to get HuffPo users to accept and use the new Twitter edition format and the three executives are confident that they will. (Examples of the Twitter edition pages include tech, politics and comedy.)

    “The idea is to produce an entirely separate edition from The Huffington Post with the same kind of content we always have provided—but super-charged, if you will, for Twitter users,” Lerer told paidContent. “We think it’s reasonable to assume that there will be more and more Twitter users; we think it’s here to stay. As more users get accustomed to it, this will be a way that users will increasingly seek their news from our site. I can see people coming to the main site and going to the Twitter editions. Eventually, I can see people just going to the Twitter edition instead of the main Huffington Post sites and verticals. Ultimately, it will end up being as significant an addition to The Huffington Post as we’ve made to date.”

    At least at first, HuffPo readers will not be going straight to the Twitter edition. As Huffington told me, the Twitter edition front page is still in the works. “We want to see how people use the Twitter edition and that will influence how we create the front page for it,” she said. She described the integration of the Twitter format into HuffPo as a natural step for them. “Twitter has become an essential means of newsgathering and sharing. But readers want someone who can sift through all the feeds and curate the best, most relevant news. And that’s our role.”

    She noted that editors of the 19 HuffPo sections, including the local sites, will be the curators of the corresponding Twitter edition verticals, which include politics, technology, entertainment and other channels. The tweets won’t just come from HuffPo regulars, Hippeau added. “This is our way of doing breaking news, using real-time Twitter feeds of people that we have followed, people who have a certain authority on the news we cover, whether it’s health care reform or the Academy Awards or technology or sports.” The site’s audience will also be able to enter their Twitter account IDs and tweet from the HuffPo Twitter edition as well.

    “We’re one part social network, one part news content site,” Hippeau said. “So for us, the question has always been how to use Facebook, Twitter and other social networking tools and our content and integrate it with our advertisers. There’s a number of different ways we can do this. But for right now, along with everyone else, we’re still in the experimental stage and we’re testing a variety of methods and ideas.”

    In terms of deriving revenue from the Twitter edition, Hippeau, Huffington and Lerer said that is coming soon as well. How soon? Hippeau said there might be some clues next week after Twitter is expected to formally discuss its revenue model at its Chirp conference. “We hope after they announce it, we’ll be able to partner with them on whatever they’ll be offering,” Hippeau said.

    Speaking of the business, I asked all three how the company’s revenue growth and profitability are faring. We have heard rumors that HuffPo, which raised a huge $25 million funding in December 2008, was having some cash problems and might be seeking an additional round. All were adamant that HuffPo would not be raising more money anytime soon. “I hadn’t heard those rumors, and the idea that we need a cash infusion is completely wrong,” Hippeau said. Lerer added, “A significant portion of the $25 million is still in the bank, if we needed it and we don’t.”

    While they noted that HuffPo doesn’t release its financial numbers, all insisted that revenue had doubled in the past year. Hippeau said he expected the company to reach profitability sometime this year. “The latest comScore numbers have us at 24 million monthly uniques and the panel-only numbers have us at 12 million, which is more than 100 percent growth over the previous year,” Hippeau said. “We’re confident that our business is solid and that we’ll continue to double revenues this year as well.”

    Update: Here’s HuffPo’s announcement (pdf).

    Related


  • Bieber Not Pleased With PEOPLE Cover Debut

    Teen singing sensation (Or totally annoying pip squeak, depending on who ask….)Justin Bieber accepted his crown as the World’s Biggest Pop Star (For The Moment Anyway) on the cover of this week’s issue of PEOPLE – but the 16-year-old cutie wishes PEOPLE’s “people” would have given him a heads-up about the toothy-grinned photograph of him they selected for the April 19 cover.

    Writing on his Twitter account Wednesday, Justin joked: “Dear People. Covershoot… next time I laugh real crazy warn me you are still taking pics…Still appreciate you but let’s get on the same page. I look crazy as heck on the cover but if you can’t laugh at yourself you ain’t having fun.”


  • Demo: EA SPORTS 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

     

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    Add EA SPORTS 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa Demo to your download queue

     

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  • Shoppers Drug Mart shares plunge on Ontario drug changes

    Shares of Shoppers Drug Mart Corp. fell roughly 14% in early trading
    on Thursday after the Ontario government published proposals to dramatically change
    how pharmacists are compensated. The stock declined $6.17 to $36.78
    shortly after trading began as analysts downgraded the stock and
    trimmed their earnings forecasts.

    Calling the adjustments to
    pharmacy reimbursement “draconian,” Desjardins Securities analyst Keith
    Howlett cut his rating on the stock to Sell from Hold and slashed his
    price target to $39 from $50.

    After nine months of discussions,
    the province says it wants to reduce reimbursement rates for generic
    drugs from 50% to 25% of the branded drug cost. It also wants to phase
    in by 2014 the same generic drug costs for private third-party payers
    and the uninsured, as well as eliminate professional allowances that
    see generic manufacturers pay pharmacists for stocking their generic
    alternative.

    “The proposals are punitive to pharmacies in Ontario,” Mr. Howlett told clients. “Longer-term, this will spur consolidation.”

    He
    explained that the proposals would eliminate any financial benefit to
    Ontario pharmacies from the shift of prescriptions from branded to
    generic. In fact, remuneration for generics would be lower than for
    branded, which will result in the ongoing market share shift to generic
    drugs being a drag on earnings, rather than a driver of earnings as it
    has been in the past.

    If the proposals are implemented, the
    analyst said Shoppers’ current and prospective earnings power will
    likely be reduced substantially. His preliminary assessment is that
    annual earnings per share could fall by 40¢ to 60¢.
    Shoppers plans to provide further analysis and information on its first quarter conference call on April 28.

    Mr. Howlett also said the tone of the government’s press release suggests negotiations with the industry have ended.

    UBS
    analyst Vishal Shreedhar believes the company will respond with reduced
    pharmacy services and hours in Ontario. He said Shoppers should be able
    to manage the regulatory changes, but it will take time for investors
    to see the full impact of the drug reforms on its profit and loss
    statement.

    The analyst’s largest concern is a potential ricochet
    effect as other provinces aim to mimic similar pricing terms as the
    Ontario government. He noted that Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador
    have a most favoured nation provision which require that the price
    offered to the provincial drug plans be equal to the lowest provincial
    drug prices in Canada.

    Mr. Shreedhar is surprised that the
    Ontario government aims to not allow private label generic drugs. He
    left his Buy rating and $49 price target unchanged.

    Raymond
    James analyst Kenric Tyghe noted that the changes to the Ontario Drug
    Benefit Program were significantly more aggressive than widely
    expected. He cut his price target on Shoppers share to $45 from $50 and
    reduced his rating to Market Perform from Outperform. The analyst also
    revised his EPS estimates to $2.52 (from $2.94) in 2010 and to $2.84
    (from $3.24) in 2011.

    In light of upcoming patent expiration of
    some blockbuster drugs, which incentivizes provinces to reduce their
    expenditure on generic drugs, he said there is further opportunity for
    the federal government to intervene and require more consistent
    policies across Canada.

    “What is particularly striking with
    regard to the changes is the disparity between the measured approach
    recently adopted under Alberta’s Conservative government and that of
    Ontario’s Liberal government,” Mr. Tyghe wrote in a note.

    Jonathan Ratner

  • UT Students Run Boutique to Aid Habitat; Fashion Show Tonight

    KNOXVILLE — Retail and consumer sciences students at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, have teamed up with the local Habitat for Humanity Thrift Store for the team’s third annual Habitat Boutique which will kick off with a fashion show tonight and then be open for customers on April 9 and 10.

    The boutique, located at the Farragut Building, 530 S. Gay St., resells gently used ladies’ designer clothing and accessories. All proceeds benefit local Habitat for Humanity initiatives.

    The Habitat Boutique started in 2008 through the collaboration of Ginger Baxter, Knoxville Habitat for Humanity board member, and Ann Fairhurst, professor of retail and consumer sciences.

    Baxter asked her friends to donate their gently used clothes to the Knoxville Habitat for Humanity Thrift Store for her birthday. As her friends donated many wonderful items, Baxter thought that there needed to be a wonderful outlet for the donations to be resold. Baxter contacted Fairhurst and the two came up with the Habitat Boutique.

    Fairhurst’s students are able to contribute to Habitat for Humanity not by building houses, but by doing what they have been educated to do — running a retail establishment. The students find and secure a location for the store, design the placement of fixtures and coordinate all the merchandise that is for sale.

    As a kickoff, a fashion show will be held at 7 p.m. tonight at the Habitat Boutique, Farragut Building, 530 S. Gay St. The event will feature evening wear. Attendees will have the first opportunity to shop the boutique.

    Tickets for the fashion show are $35. They will be sold at the door or in advance at Salon Visage.

    The Habitat Boutique will be open for shoppers from 10:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Friday, April 9, and from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturday, April 10.

    In 2008 the event raised $3,000 for Knoxville Habitat for Humanity and, in 2009, it raised $4,500. This year, the students have set a high goal of $6,000.

    The average price of each item is $4.

    C O N T A C T :

    Amy Blakely (865-974-5034, [email protected])

  • Will Voters Undermine California’s Cap-and-Trade Plan?

    Just a year ago, California was heralded as a leader on green energy and one of the most forward-thinking states on environmental issues. But now a new ballot initiative threatens to stall the state’s cap-and-trade plan until its economy improves.

    Mounting economic pressure has combined with California’s voter-friendly policies and  brutal budget crunch to create a backlash against cap-and-trade. The state’s plan, the first economy-wide version in the country, is set to take effect in 2012.  

    The ballot measure’s supporters cite studies — some discredited — that predict rising household expenses and widespread job losses once the law goes into effect. To combat these effects, the proposition would prevent the state from implementing the law until unemployment stabilizes at or below 5.5 percent for at least a year. Californians haven’t been employed at those levels since 2007; the state’s current jobless rate is 12.5 percent.

    Both supporters and opponents of the measure believe it will have no trouble attaining the 434,000 signatures it needs to get on the ballot.

    Governor Schwarzenegger, who once seemed to travel exclusively by Hummer, became an unlikely environmental warrior after he took office in 2003. In the past seven years, he has pushed California to the forefront of renewable energy and emissions reductions, even challenging the federal government on its reluctance to increase fuel efficiency standards. But the cap-and-trade measure, which passed in 2006, is the emerald in his crown. The law aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 — a much more ambitious cut than the one proposed in last year’s House bill — and to cement California’s role as a leader in the green energy economy.

    Though Schwarzenegger has recently proposed loosening specifics of the legislation, he remains committed to seeing cap-and-trade through. Even if the ballot measure fails, Schwarzenegger’s successor could suspend his vision with a single signature, as Republican frontrunner Meg Whitman has vowed to do on her first day in office.  





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  • World’s Largest DVR Records 50 Shows At Once, Saves 13 Years of TV [DVR]

    You would need 326 TiVo Premiere boxes to match what the Snapstream DVR can do with just one coax plug. More »







  • Here It Comes: Europe Is Facing A Three-Decade Debt Nightmare

    baguetteEurope has a long three decades ahead of it.

    Costs of the financial crisis and an expensive social welfare system will cause public sector debt to skyrocket, according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements. The most shocking estimates are for Britain, where interest payments on debt may hit 27% of GDP.

    Ridiculous debt levels are coming — worse than the U.S. national debt and worse than the Greek debt.

    Check Out Europe’s Public Sector Debt Crisis >

    Government debt is going gangbusters across the developed world

    Government debt is going gangbusters across the developed world

    Source: BIS

    Europe faces an unprecedented aging crisis

    Europe faces an unprecedented aging crisis

    Source: BIS

    Age-related costs are increasing fast

    Age-related costs are increasing fast

    Source: BIS

    Italy — public debt approaching 250% GDP

    Italy -- public debt approaching 250% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: The big winner in recent elections was a right-wing anti-immigrant party that blames economic problems on gypsies.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    Portugal — public debt approaching 270% GDP

    Portugal -- public debt approaching 270% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: Greece’s deputy prime minister says: “You are the next victims … I hope it doesn’t happen and the solidarity prevails and we find an exit from this escalation (of borrowing costs). But if this does not happen, the next probable victim will be Portugal.”

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    Austria — public debt approaching 300% GDP

    Austria -- public debt approaching 300% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: One out of two Austrians retire early with a disability pension, according to the OECD.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    Spain — public debt approaching 300% GDP

    Spain -- public debt approaching 300% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: Spain’s unemployment stands at the EU-high of 18.8%.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    Germany — public debt approaching 305% GDP

    Germany -- public debt approaching 305% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: The German economy contracted in Q1 and is heading toward a double-dip recession, says the OECD.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    Ireland — public debt approaching 310% GDP

    Ireland -- public debt approaching 310% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: A new bank bailout may cost up to €100 million, according to the Irish Times.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    Netherlands — public debt approaching 400% GDP

    Netherlands -- public debt approaching 400% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: Only 44% of Dutch supported budget cuts, even as the government warns of a “Greek scenario” by the end of the decade, according to Reuters.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    France — public debt approaching 400% GDP

    France -- public debt approaching 400% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: The EU’s two largest economies are bickering, with French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde calling for Germany to spend more.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    Greece — public debt approaching 410% GDP

    Greece -- public debt approaching 410% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: Greece is under increasing pressure today, and their 10-year bond spread against the German bund has reached an all time high of 453 bps. The euro is down .2% against the dollar.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    It’s not just Europe… USA — public debt approaching 430% GDP

    It's not just Europe... USA -- public debt approaching 430% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: America is about to fall off the list of safest credit ratings.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    UK — public debt approaching 520% GDP

    UK -- public debt approaching 520% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: Hung parliament is a growing possibility, which would shatter Britain’s hopes of dealing with the budget.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    Japan — public debt approaching 600% GDP

    Japan -- public debt approaching 600% GDP

    Sign of the apocalypse: Japan is eating the bluefin tuna out of existence.

    red: baseline scenario
    green: small gradual adjustment
    blue: small gradual adjustment with age-related spending held constant

    Source: BIS

    Don’t miss…

    Don't miss...

    Image: AP

    The Scary Reason Europe Is Doomed To Crisis After Crisis After Crisis

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Israeli Woman Charged with Espionage

    If I had told you yesterday Anat Kamm’s story, I might have been arrested.

     

    A gag order on the case has prevented journalists from reporting it. The media ban was lifted today.                       

     

    Anat Kamm is a 23-year-old journalist charged with espionage for allegedly taking more than 2,000 documents while completing her required military service—700 pages of top secret, classified documents according to the Shin Bet, Israel’s secret service.

     

    She was doing her military duty in Israel’s Defense Forces Central Command. She’s been under house arrest for the past four months.

     

    Here’s what no one is talking about in this case:

     

    The documents are reported to have exposed that senior members of Israel’s military disobeyed Supreme Court guidelines and launched targeted assassinations against Palestinian militants. Assassinations are not illegal, but they’re not supposed to happen if it is possible to arrest the militants.

     

    It’s likely Kamm passed on these documents to expose what she believed was the military’s misuse of power.

     

    She’s being charged with espionage–but she didn’t pass off these documents to Hamas or Hezbollah. According to the court order, she gave them to Haaretz newspaper journalist Uri Blau, who reported on the matter. He’s now believed to be in London. If he returns to Israel he could face arrest and prosecution. Haaretz is trying to negotiate his return to Israel.

     

    As for Kamm, she will continue to remain under house arrest until further notice.

     

     

     

  • Prediction markets for movie box office: Manipulation! Insider Trading! Efficiency! and Twitter!

    Michael Giberson

    Tyler Cowen links to a story in the New York Times detailing the opposition of the Motion Picture Association of America to two proposed markets for forecasting movie ticket sales.  Of the objections noted in the article, Cowen thinks the key issue for Hollywood is the possibility of a poor market showing making it difficult for a film to get into and stay in theaters.  The article also mentions possible market manipulation and insider trading issues as problems.

    Robin Hanson addressed the manipulation arguments a few days ago, “Movie Manipulation“:

    My research suggests that speculative markets are remarkably robust to manipulation attempts; the more folks try to manipulate, the more accurate market estimates get on average!  But with limited funding, I’ve only done a limited number of experiments; I can’t prove no one will ever use a speculative market to purposely influence movie perceptions.  And alas this mere possibility of manipulation may seem intolerable.

    Part of what the movie industry fears is further loss of influence over pre-release product positioning, but this is clearly an area where “information wants to be free” will overcome the industry’s desire to control the pre-release buzz.

    Rumors and reports now spread more efficiently, thanks in part to the internet, and once a film is out the internet gives us “word of mouth on steriods.”  Fast Company reports: ”Two researchers at HP Labs, Sitaram Asur and Bernardo Huberman, have discovered that you can actually use Twitter mentions to predict how well a movie will do in it’s first couple weekends of release.”

    The Fast Company article notes that Twitter analysis method actually outpredicts the (play money) movie prediction market Hollywood Stock Exchange.  At Midas Oracle, Chris Masse countered, “You could turn Bernardo Huberman’s study around and say that the HSX traders are not yet using Twitter as a source to the full extent possible.”  Now the Twitter angle is public information, that omission will be overcome. (And how soon before Hollywood studios begin mass-Twitter marketing campaigns?)

    See also: Deadline,MPAA Organizes Entertainment Community Opposition To Movie Futures Exchange.”

  • Forget iWorks — I’m Editing Google Docs on the iPad

    With all the talk about Apple’s iPad, I’m noticing two trends. First, the device is polarizing opinions — people either lust for it or say they don’t see the point of it. Very few seem to be “on the fence” about the iPad. But there’s a common thread among all — folks are wondering how (or if) an iPad fits into their daily workflow, and that gets me to my second trend. People are looking to the iPad for more than content consumption — which it is excellent for — they’re trying to be productive with it. I’m doing just that, now that I found an app that not only links my iPad with my Google Docs account, but lets me edit documents and spreadsheets in the cloud.

    Office2 Pro is the app and it cost me $7.99, which I think is more than reasonable for the functionality it provides. The software allows me to use the iPad as if I was running Google Docs locally on my computer. With it, I can view any of my documents, spreadsheets, presentations or even Adobe PDF files I have stored in the cloud. But Google Docs viewers are a dime-a-dozen — the difference here is that I can edit files on the iPad and the changes are saved online to my Google Docs account.

    It’s not perfect (yet), but it works

    Now there are some limitations and quite a few kinks to be worked out. For starters, you can view all kinds of file types, but for now, you can only edit documents or spreadsheets. Presentations are view-only. I also encountered a fair number of bugs when using the software. Adding an image to a document worked, for example, but when I zoomed the page to get a better view of the format, the entire doc zoomed off the screen. I was able to save the changes, even in this state, but it was a scary few moments. That’s not the only bug, but rather than run though them all, I’ll say this: the developer is aware of several issues and has already submitted a version with fixes to Apple for approval. I’ve captured the list of fixes in the image gallery below.

    iPad: meet the cloud

    It was tricky to connect Office2 Pro with Google Docs, and the support information could use an update. Once I figured it out however, the steps were actually quite simple. And I didn’t just connect the iPad with my personal Gmail account — the software supports Google Apps accounts too, so I’ve used it for both work and personal documents. Yes, you can link Office2 Pro to multiple web accounts simultaneously. Although I don’t have a MobileMe account, the developer says you can also connect Office2 Pro to an iDisk on MobileMe. And it also supports Box.net or any WebDAV server, so you’re not limited to Google Docs. In the file explorer, you can create folders and move documents just as if you were accessing your Docs account in a browser. Plus you can email docs right from the app. From a connectivity standpoint, most users should be covered.

    Usability

    Data entry is relatively straightforward. The iPad’s native on-screen keyboard is available by tapping a button — tap your screen where you want to insert or change data and start typing. All of the special function buttons are at the top of your document, just where you’d expect them. And the app works in portrait or landscape, although the file explorer stays put in landscape — I’d like to see the document in full screen but haven’t found a way to do that yet in landscape. In a spreadsheet, data entry can be a little cumbersome as you first tap a cell and then enter data in a field above the spreadsheet — not ideal, but it works.

    Most functionality that people use for documents and spreadsheets is available in Office2 Pro. From a word processing standpoint, you have text and paragraph formatting, table creation, images and even real-time spelling correction to name a few features. Spreadsheet support includes multiple worksheets (although there’s a bug with this), sorting, formatting, cell merging, pane freezing, and 112 functions.

    I’d estimate that most of what people need in a Google Docs editor is in the app, or is coming soon. Office2 Pro is surprisingly full-featured if you approach it with a Google Docs mentality — it’s good enough for most users, but won’t replace every function found in the Microsoft Office suite. Aside from charts and other advanced features offered by Google Docs, the basics are all here.

    Note: to view any images in full size, simply right-click on one and open in a new browser tab.

    Buy now or wait?

    So if you can connect your iPad with a Google Docs account and edit information, why isn’t anyone talking about this application? I think there’s a few reasons — lack of awareness for starters, not to mention the buggy nature I’ve experienced. Unless you’re a patient person, I’d strongly consider waiting for the updated version with fixes before plunking down the $7.99. Yes, the app works, but it’s not quite where it needs to be. I’ve had to create workarounds for some issues and not everyone is willing to do that. A good example: there’s no Close button when you’re done with edits. I end up opening a new document in this case, which forces the app to prompt for a document save. And that’s just one of several user interface examples that need some tweaking.

    I’m looking forward to the updated version as I see great promise in Office2 Pro. I made the transition to Google Docs well over two years ago and this software is breathing an air of productivity into my iPad that I didn’t expect. I anticipate that Apple will update its iWorks apps to address compatibility and file management issues but I’m not so sure Apple will fully embrace Google Docs in iWorks. If it does, great, but if not, Office2 Pro is worth the look.

    (Special shout out to Joshua, a reader that tipped me on this app!)

    Related GigaOM Pro Content (sub req’d)

  • Then and Now: How Has Your Breakfast Changed?

    040810-wheaties.jpg I have a very distinct memory of sitting down with my mother at the breakfast table with a bowl of Wheaties and a banana sliced on top. She would tell me stories about when she was little, sitting at the table with her Grandfather and sharing the very same breakfast. Now that I’m older, I don’t remember the last time I had a bowl of my nostalgic past, but I can tell you it set the bar for my morning eating habits — I still don’t like sugar cereals, not even Frosted Flakes, even if Tony the Tiger tells me they’re Greeeeeaaat!

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  • Here Is What You Need To Know About The Coup And The Violence In Kyrgyzstan

    The coup in Kyrgyzstan has brought attention to a region of world that is now at the center of the competition for resources between the U.S., China, and Russia.

    • The coup has brought Roza Otunbayeva, a former foreign minister, to power. She was previously ambassador to both the U.S. and UK, and was educated in Moscow. It has removed President Bakiyev, who rose to power in a similar manner, five years ago. 
    • The U.S. has a significant military presence in the country through a NATO base which is a key source of air support for the Afghan war effort. Supply flights to Afghanistan have been stopped by the crisis. The Russians also have a military base in the country, only 18.6 miles from the NATO one.
    • Kyrgyzstan borders China and Kazakhstan, as well as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Kyrgyzstan is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is led by China and Russia, for the pursuit of further economic cooperation in the region. In organization, it resembles the old European Economic Community.
    • The country is a consumer of oil and gas, rather than a producer, but Gazprom has a 75% stake in the country’s gas industry. It has significant gold deposits that Chinese company Lingbao Gold has invested in.
    • Some are suggesting that Kyrgyzstan is a key, resource rich country that is being squabbled over in a new “great game” in Central Asia. However, this game clearly has much different dimensions then the colonial scramble for Africa, as currently China, Russia, and U.S. are willing to share space in the country all for the pursuit of largely separate interests.

    From Al Jazeera:

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • SIEL Translations: Mercosur TPR Decision, 1/2005

    The Society of International Economic Law has just released the first fruits of a trial project it is running, translating Spanish
    language material related to international economic law into English. The first project has been to translate the
    first decision of the MERCOSUR Permanent Tribunal for Review (No1/2005), on the Prohibition of the Importation of Retreaded Tyres from Uruguay.

    The translation is on the SIEL website, at www.sielnet.org/sieltranslationproject.The official Spanish language version can be found here

    The translation was carried out by: Taïs Jost; Nicolás Perrone (London School of Economics, Universidad de
    Buenos Aires); Maria Alejandra Calle-Saldarriaga (Universidad EAFIT); and Carolina Saldanha (Uno – Trade Strategy Advisors). Further detailed editorial work was then carried out byAleksandra
    Bojovic (London School of Economics), Nicolás Perrone, and Taïs Jost, with some
    assistance from myself. All have considerable expertise in international economic
    law, and they have volunteered an enormous amount of time to this project. I
    would like to thank them publicly on behalf of SIEL.

    Substantively, there are quite a number of points of
    interest in this judgement. Some which spring immediately to mind:

          
    the decision makes considerable and very explicit
    use of the case law of other integration arrangements, namely EC and Andean
    Community judgements, and one WTO judgement (Korea-Beef). It does so under the rubric of a notion of ‘the law of
    integration’. This will be of interest to those interested in tracking
    transnational interactions between courts, and in particular the borrowings and
    transplantations between different regional arrangements.

          
    There are some interesting contrasts and
    comparisons with WTO law which present themselves. For example, the explicit
    (and summary) treatment of the subjective intention behind the prohibition on
    imported retreaded tyres (para 16) – which they dismiss as self-evidently
    protectionist.  Or the assertion
    that exceptions to the principle of free trade must be interpreted narrowly
    (para 10), an approach which has of course been rejected in WTO law.

          
    There are intriguing references to the
    (in)ability of Mercosur Tribunals to refer to principles of public
    international law external to the Mercosur legal system. It’s not entirely
    clear, but what looks initially like an unequivocal rejection seems to get
    slightly more complicated later on the judgement. This at least offers some
    counterpoint to the usual discussion of whether and how the WTO could take
    regional law into account.

          
    I found it interesting also that the PTR went
    out of its way to reject the notion that the application of
    environmental exceptions involves the balancing of two competing objectives, ie
    the freeing of trade and the protection of the environment (para 9) –
    particularly as the approach it preferred might not be that different in
    practice. There is a story to be told at some point, I am sure, which situates
    this kind of ‘conflicting considerations’ analysis (which we are very familiar
    with from the WTO’s approach to GATT Article XX) within the narratives told by
    of Duncan Kennedy and David Kennedy in their chapters in Trubek and Santos’
    recent book on Law and Development.

    We hope you find the translation of some use.
    The unusual language of the Tribunal in some places presented its own
    difficulties of translation, and we would value feedback. We would also value
    suggestions as to what material is most urgently in need of translation. At present, we have a second Mercosur judgement in the
    process of translation, as well as the Protocol of Olivos.

  • Americans Love To Scream About Taxes Or Social Support, But Only Half Are Actually Paying Income Tax

    grandma couch

    Far fewer Americans have skin in the tax game than you would imagine from the popular uproar, either for or against government spending and social programs.

    Perhaps we need to invert the popular maxim to: no taxation, no representation.

    By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER (AP)

    WASHINGTON — Tax Day is a dreaded deadline for millions, but for nearly half of U.S. households it’s simply somebody else’s problem.

    About 47 percent will pay no federal income taxes at all for 2009. Either their incomes were too low, or they qualified for enough credits, deductions and exemptions to eliminate their liability.

    That’s according to projections by the Tax Policy Center, a Washington research organization.

    Most people still are required to file returns by the April 15 deadline. The penalty for skipping it is limited to the amount of taxes owed, but it’s still almost always better to file: That’s the only way to get a refund of all the income taxes withheld by employers.

    In recent years, credits for low- and middle-income families have grown so much that a family of four making as much as $50,000 will owe no federal income tax for 2009, as long as there are two children younger than 17, according to a separate analysis by the consulting firm Deloitte Tax.

    Tax cuts enacted in the past decade have been generous to wealthy taxpayers, too, making them a target for President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress. Less noticed were tax cuts for low- and middle-income families, which were expanded when Obama signed the massive economic recovery package last year.

    The result is a tax system that exempts almost half the country from paying for programs that benefit everyone, including national defense, public safety, infrastructure and education. It is a system in which the top 10 percent of earners — households making an average of $366,400 in 2006 — paid about 73 percent of the income taxes collected by the federal government.

    The bottom 40 percent, on average, make a profit from the federal income tax, meaning they get more money in tax credits than they would otherwise owe in taxes. For those people, the government sends them a payment.

    “We have 50 percent of people who are getting something for nothing,” said Curtis Dubay, senior tax policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation.

    The vast majority of people who escape federal income taxes still pay other taxes, including federal payroll taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare, and excise taxes on gasoline, aviation, alcohol and cigarettes. Many also pay state or local taxes on sales, income and property.

    That helps explain the country’s aversion to taxes, said Clint Stretch, a tax policy expert Deloitte Tax. He said many people simply look at the difference between their gross pay and their take-home pay and blame the government for the disparity.

    “It’s not uncommon for people to think that their Social Security taxes, their 401(k) contributions, their share of employer health premiums, all of that stuff in their mind gets lumped into income taxes,” Stretch said.

    The federal income tax is the government’s largest source of revenue, raising more than $900 billion — or a little less than half of all government receipts — in the budget year that ended last Sept. 30. But with deductions and credits, especially for families with children, there have long been people who don’t pay it, mainly lower-income families.

    The number of households that don’t pay federal income taxes increased substantially in 2008, when the poor economy reduced incomes and Congress cut taxes in an attempt to help recovery.

    In 2007, about 38 percent of households paid no federal income tax, a figure that jumped to 49 percent in 2008, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center.

    In 2008, President George W. Bush signed a law providing most families with rebate checks of $300 to $1,200. Last year, Obama signed the economic recovery law that expanded some tax credits and created others. Most targeted low- and middle-income families.

    Obama’s Making Work Pay credit provides as much as $800 to couples and $400 to individuals. The expanded child tax credit provides $1,000 for each child under 17. The Earned Income Tax Credit provides up to $5,657 to low-income families with at least three children.

    There are also tax credits for college expenses, buying a new home and upgrading an existing home with energy-efficient doors, windows, furnaces and other appliances. Many of the credits are refundable, meaning if the credits exceed the amount of income taxes owed, the taxpayer gets a payment from the government for the difference.

    “All these things are ways the government says, if you do this, we’ll reduce your tax bill by some amount,” said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center.

    The government could provide the same benefits through spending programs, with the same effect on the federal budget, Williams said. But it sounds better for politicians to say they cut taxes rather than they started a new spending program, he added.

    Obama has pushed tax cuts for low- and middle-income families and tax increases for the wealthy, arguing that wealthier taxpayers fared well in the past decade, so it’s time to pay up. The nation’s wealthiest taxpayers did get big tax breaks under Bush, with the top marginal tax rate reduced from 39.6 percent to 35 percent, and the second-highest rate reduced from 36 percent to 33 percent.

    But income tax rates were lowered at every income level. The changes made it relatively easy for families of four making $50,000 to eliminate their income tax liability.

    Here’s how they did it, according to Deloitte Tax:

    The family was entitled to a standard deduction of $11,400 and four personal exemptions of $3,650 apiece, leaving a taxable income of $24,000. The federal income tax on $24,000 is $2,769.

    With two children younger than 17, the family qualified for two $1,000 child tax credits. Its Making Work Pay credit was $800 because the parents were married filing jointly.

    The $2,800 in credits exceeds the $2,769 in taxes, so the family makes a $31 profit from the federal income tax. That ought to take the sting out of April 15.

    Join the conversation about this story »

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