Posted by Nick Fletcher Tuesday 12 January 2010
Cadbury has again rejected Kraft’s hostile £10.5bn bid for the company, but left the door open for a “sensible” offer.
In its final defence document Cadbury said it had an outstanding 2009, with sales up 5% and a higher than expected operating margin of 13.5%. It said its dividend would rise by 10%. The usual “derisory offer” and “don’t let Kraft steal your company” comments were also present and correct.
On a conference call Cadbury chief executive Todd Stitzer said:
People set strategy, and people get results. The fundamental decision for shareholders is which team of people can deliver what they say they will do.
And chairman Roger Carr described Kraft’s board as a management team with “a track record of over-promising and under-delivering”.
Kraft’s offer includes a mixture of cash and shares – the former set to be boosted by the proceeds of a recent sale of Kraft’s pizza business – but there have been rumblings from the likes of Warren Buffett, a Kraft investor, about not overpaying.
Kraft’s offer currently values Cadbury at around 762p a share, compared to the current price of 780.5p, down 0.5p. Analysts reckon any successful bid needs to start with an 8. Investors are also waiting for the next move from Ferrero, the Italian chocolate maker which could make its own offer, perhaps in tandem with US group Hershey. Nestle has already ruled itself out. Analyst Graham Jones at Panmure Gordon said:
Cadbury’s 2009 results show 5% LFL sales growth and margins up by 160 basis points to 13.5%, slightly ahead of previous guidance. Cadbury states that it has ‘excellent momentum going into 2010’, although has been unable to give any margin guidance for 2010, merely repeating its objective of 16-18% margins by 2013.
Kraft’s offer values Cadbury at 12 times EBITDA for 2009, significantly below comparable transactions which have ranged from 14.3 times to 18.5 times EBITDA. This implies a value of 900p+, although given the amount of risk-arbitrage ownership, we suspect that an increased offer in the range of 825p-850p could well be sufficient to clinch the deal. Given Kraft’s cash proceeds from its pizza sale, we believe it can afford to raise the cash element in order to raise the offer to within this range, at the same time as offering less shares than initially planned and therefore appeasing Warren Buffet.
Martin Deboo at Investec said:
The beat will not be unhelpful to Cadbury’s cause, but the numbers reflect a slowing of both sales and margin progression in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile we concur with Cadbury’s observations on the inadequacy of Kraft’s current offer.
Our view in the round is that today’s disclosures are neutral to positive for Cadbury’s valuation and we re-state our target price of 795p and advice to shareholders to sit on the shares. We continue to think that Kraft will need to come up with an offer north of £8 and with a significantly enhanced cash component to take out Cadbury. We think this is less than certain and our target price is based on a weighted average of the potential outcomes.
Share Investor Blog – Stockmarket & Business commentary
Share Investor New Zealand Business News– Get more business news
Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum – Register free
Share Investor’s Daily Forex UpdatesRecommended Amazon Reading
Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $47.25 / Used from: $46.96
Usually ships in 9 to 11 daysThe Four Filters Invention of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger by Bud Labitan
Buy new: $33.25 / Used from: $43.89
Usually ships in 24 hours









One of the first electric vehicle charging networks in the world has been opened by Coulomb Technologies in Lincoln City yesterday. The network will eventually comprise six stations located in and around the coastal town of Lincoln City and is to be used to allow consumers to charge their electric vehicles as they would a normal, internal combustion powered one.
There is no doubt that the Chinese market is growing and, alongside the whole sector, the local manufacturers are becoming more important players for the global industry. The top Chinese carmakers have already announced their plans to expand operations in both the US and Europe, with some of them even making the first steps in this direction.

A battle is brewing between Google and Facebook over online identity. Both companies offer tools which enable users to log into various sites using their existing credentials, either with Facebook Connect or through Google Friend Connect. Facebook has been winning over the big sites, but Google has more sway with those looking for a more open approach… (
Formula One returnee engine supplier Cosworth announced earlier today that it has already made available for shipping the first engines for the 2010 F1 championship to the teams it will partner through the duration of the upcoming season.
With the official market release of the Nissan Leaf getting closer by the day, the Japanese carmaker announced yesterday it has selected AeroVironment (AV) as the main provider of home-charging stations and installation services for the EV. 



