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(This guest post originally appeared at the author’s blog)

The rally is going to continue into 2010 according to Wall Street’s most influential bank   (Please see here for Goldman’s top 10 trades of 2010). Analysts at Goldman Sachs Europe and America have released their full year 2010 estimates and they are very bullish about the upcoming year.

Goldman sees very low rates, stronger than expected earnings, strong commodity demand and investor reallocation driving prices higher.  Goldman sees no rate changes through 2011 – one of the most accommodative outlooks of any bank we have covered.  Stronger than expected revenue growth and continued margin expansion will result in 15%+ equity returns in the upcoming year.  Although they see a continuation in the rally some moderation is expected.  As we previously mentioned, their analysts expect many similarities to 2004.  David Kostin wrote:

“Continued profit margin resiliency from prior aggressive cost reductions should drive strong returns in early 2010 and push the S&P 500 towards 1,300.”

Their analysts in Europe are even more bullish.  They see the DJ STOXX 600 rising 20% to 300 by the end of 2010.

Goldman argues that we are transitioning into the growth phase of the recovery from the hope phase.  This period is generally characterized by stabilization in economic growth and lower equity returns than the hope phase.  Nonetheless, doubt remains and catalysts for higher stock prices remain.

Perhaps most important, Goldman sees a continued influx of cash to the equity markets.  Thus far, investors have been risk averse and either remain in cash or have moved into bonds.  Goldman sees a substantial move into equities as investors become less risk averse.

How to play it?  Thematically they focus on three key themes:

• Dispersion – higher growth and higher sustainable returns companies.

• BRICs exposure.

• High and growing dividend growth companies.

* You can find Goldman’s 2010 commodity predictions here.

Source: GS

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See Also:

• 10 Countries That Will Survive The Sovereign Credit Meltdown Of 2010
• Sky High Profit Margin Expectations Baked Into Stocks For 2010
• Doug Kass’s Big Surprises For 2010: A Dollar Surge, A Gold Collapse, And Goldman Sachs Going Private

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Former F1 champion Lewis Hamilton insisted that he is delighted with the news that Michael Schumacher will return to Formula One racing for the upcoming 3 seasons. The Brit never got to compete against the 7-time world champion, as he entered F1 in 2007, and will finally get that chance starting 2010; which he waits forward like nothing in the world.

It’s brilliant news. It’s great to have Michael back in Formula 1. I used to watch him race when I was in the junior categories and … (read more)

As we told you in an earlier report today, American manufacturer Ford officially announced it has settled all the terms of a future agreement with Chinese company Zhejiang Geely Holding Group for the sale of the Swedish brand Volvo. The deal itself will be signed in 2010, sometimes in the first quarter and the sale will be finalized in the second quarter of next year.

"Ford Motor confirmed today that all substantive commercial terms relating to the potential sale of Volvo Car… (read more)

Eco Factor: Fuel-efficient vehicle runs sustainably on bio-diesel.

Industrial designer Małgorzata Hop has envisioned a concept vehicle for Audi that runs on futuristic technology for a clean, low-emission ride. The vehicle is a two-wheeled car with low ground clearance and wide, comfortable wheels, giving a driving impression similar to a motorcycle.

(more…)

John Paulson is making an inflation bet that conveniently makes money even if the U.S. economy recovers more strongly than expected.

Financial Times: “It will be difficult for the government to withdraw the economic stimulus,” Mr Paulson said in a speech. “An increase in the monetary base leads to an increase in the money supply, which leads to inflation.”

Bond prices fall as yields rise, and Mr Paulson told the Financial Times last week that he has been hoping to benefit in the Treasury market by buying options that would become profitable if rates headed higher.

This makes money if inflation picks up, yet also does well if the U.S. rebounds strongly since the Fed would then be even more likely to hike rates. It only does badly in one scenario – deflation. Thus hopefully the U.S. doesn’t become a Japanese crash re-run.

“Nobody understood the extent of deflation and economic weakness in Japan,” said Dino Kos of Portales Partners, a research consultancy, who was then a Fed official. “More money was lost on that trade than on any other single trade. Everyone piled in when rates were at 3 per cent and then at 2.5 per cent and then at 2 per cent.”

Read more here.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Bernanke’s Refusal To Raise The Inflation Target Is Idiotic
• Bernanke: The Dollar Carry Trade Bubble Is Only A Problem If The Economy Gets Weak Again
• Senate Panel Votes 16-7 To Support Bernanke

by Bryan Farrell

Geoengineering had its coming out party earlier this year when White House science adviser John Holdren told reporters that he had mentioned it to President Obama as a possible, admittedly desperate, option to combat climate change. Before then, the idea of hacking the planet was largely outside the realm of public discussion, which is why few people know that when Lyndon Johnson became the first president to be warned about global warming, his science advisers offered up geoengineering as the only possible solution.

Watch the movie trailer at the bottom of this article.4th Row FilmsThis insistence upon the manipulation of nature as the answer to the climate problem is the subject of a new documentary called Owning the Weather, which chronicles attempts over the last century to unlock the planet’s most mysterious and intricate of systems for both personal and societal gain. Director Robert Greene makes the case that the large-scale, biosphere-altering effects of geoengineering can’t be understood without examining smaller scale weather modification, such as cloud seeding to produce rain.

The film begins its focus on this particular practice with the largely forgotten story of Charles Hatfield, who was hired by San Diego County in 1915 to end a four year drought. Within a month of Hatfield burning proprietary chemicals that he claimed would attract moisture, it had rained 35 inches, with 14 deaths tied to the inundation. Hatfield quickly left town and was never paid; the county decided the rain was an act of God, not Hatfield’s doing. He ended up spending the rest of his life selling sewing machines. Oddly, the film says, to this day the reservoir where Hatfield conducted his “work” still experiences rains during what should be the dry season.

A sense of mystery continues to pervade the different methods of weather modification. Not only is the practice completely baffling—the film shows farmers igniting what looks like a small gas flame that in turn burns purported cloud seeding agents—but the results are unpredictable at best. The film depicts several die-hard proponents of cloud seeding caught in a catch-22, where they are perceived as charlatans by almost everyone in the realm of science, but can’t seem to get the government funding to conduct research that could show that seeding works.

In a further ironic twist, scientists seeking funding for geoengineering research are being forced to lobby with the cloud seeders. These two disparate groups of people—one hailing from the farm belt and the other from universities and research institutions—both want the same bill passed to establish a national weather modification policy and extend funding for experiments. But the United States has so far been reluctant to test international laws governing weather modification, which were enacted shortly after it was revealed in 1971 that the U.S. military attempted cloud seeding to extend the monsoon season in Vietnam to flood the Ho Chi Minh Trail.

Owning the Weather wrestles with this sketchy past, as well as the legitimate potential that exists with geoengineering—a concept with far more science behind it than cloud seeding, but wrought with far worse possible consequences. Unlike the cloud seeders, geoengineers seem to be more aware of the drawbacks. Stanford University climate scientist and leading geoengineering proponent Ken Caldeira speaks with such self-doubt in the film that he might as well be Woody Allen in a lab coat.

Meanwhile, Bill McKibben, whom I desperately hoped would condemn the insanity of geoengineering schemes, exhibited a similarly wavering tone in the film, saying “one of the great sadnesses and proofs that we’ve let global warming get completely out of control is they don’t sound quite as crazy anymore.” Such cautious reasoning left me feeling far more mixed about the idea of planet hacking than I like to admit. But that’s the point. We simply don’t know enough yet to make any kind of sound decision, as our previous attempts to control the weather exhibit.

Although Owning the Weather can be too interview-heavy at times, with one talking head bouncing to the next, the film is at its best when it goes beyond the physical consequences of human-made weather and ponders how society and our own consciousness might change as well. The subtle irony beneath this question, however, is that mankind has already geoengineered the weather, thanks to 150 plus years of industrial pollution.

The purity of a wholly natural climate may be lost, but Mother Nature is still in full control—a fact those of us living in wealthy countries can’t seem to accept. We’re so used to controlling our home environment with the flick of the thermostat that controlling the weather seems entirely possible. And so it’s this sense of hubris that might be the scariest thing of all.

Watch It: Owning the Weather (4th Row Films) will be shown at the 92Y in Tribeca on Jan. 7. The film is also currently available via Amazon and cable video on demand. For more information, visit owningtheweather.com.

The Trailer:

Related Links:

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Michael Schumacher announced he is ready to push for his 8th title in career in Formula One, as the team he joined for the upcoming 3 seasons is championship material. The soon-to-be 41-year old German joined Mercedes Grand Prix until the end of 2012, where he will once again work with former partner Ross Brawn.

Ever since these two have joined efforts in Formula One, Schumacher became a winner in the championship. Starting at Benetton and continuing at Ferrari, this working rela… (read more)

Finally, the Kawasaki WSBK racing team test programme in Spain came to an end, with positive results for Chris Vermeulen, who declared himself impressed with the progress which was made the past few weeks. The last days of testing took place at the racing circuit in Jerez, where track conditions became worse by the minute due to the bad weather.

It rained and then stopped raining on the last day and the track surface was never really one way or the other, he explained.

read more)

Everyone has been waiting for Tiger Woods to make a public announcement about all the crazy allegations that have been flying around. Well, he finally has and I’ve got to hand it to Tiger, he manned up about it:

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If you were living back in the beginning of the century (last century, that is), you might have heard of the cultural movement which would become known as Dada. In essence an antiwar movement, the current would soon become not an art, but an anti-art.

You might wonder what does Dada have to do with Ken Block’s latest Gymkhana clip. Well, it is the only reasonable explanation we could find to match the visual mayhem which goes on in this 6.40 minutes long clip.

If y… (read more)

Eco Factor: Mixed-use development to harvest rainwater and solar energy.

Dutch architecture firm Zwarts & Jansma has unveiled the masterplan for the new Kharadi neighborhood to be developed in Pune, one of the largest cities in India, with a population of over 5 million. The development will provide space for shops, apartments, offices and leisure facilities.

(more…)

All of a sudden online music videos are looking pretty interesting to a lot of people judging from the amount of attention they’re getting lately. The latest move comes from Hulu, which has traditionally maintained a very focused library of TV shows and similar professional content, as the site has signed with Warner Music Group (WMG) to add videos from the music label to the line up. For now, only videos from British band Muse are available, but Hulu will add a couple more artists in early 2010. This comes after a similar deal with EMI.

“The agreement brings an artist-focused online video experience that features music videos, artist interviews, live concerts and rare behind the scenes footage from WMG’s world-renowned artists and labels,” WMG said in a statement.

“Warner Bros. recording artists Muse are the first artists featured under the agreement. Recently, Hulu launched an all Muse artist page that features the band’s appearance on Saturday Night Live’s December 19th holiday episode as well as content from Muse’s sold out tour dates at Wembley Stadium, exclusive interviews and rare deep-catalog videos.”

The emphasis at Hulu seems to be on the individual artists and on rarer material rather than the latest hot video. Of course, the site may not really have a choice in … (read more)

Michael Schumacher made it very clear that he didn’t come back to Formula One racing only to have some fun, but wants to become once again successful in the series. The fact that he’ll team up once again with former partner Ross Brawn is motivational enough to push for his 8th title in Formula One in 2010.

After confirming that he signed a 3-year deal with Mercedes GP for the upcoming season of Formula One, Schumacher told the media that he’s ready for the serious stuff as he has … (read more)

The North American division of BMW recently announced a new sweepstakes put together by its Financial Services arm, which offers a 2010 BMW X5 xDrive35d as a grand prize. Participants, however, will have to be from North America only and purchase or lease their car through BMW Financial Services.

Those who log into their account at least once prior to January 31, 2010 will automatically be entered in the sweepstakes. Moreover, they will automatically earn up to 4 additional entri… (read more)

Ladies, we know what’s important to you, and it’s not us. Yes, we’re talking about your footwear and we know full well that you’ll choose a great pair of shoes over a guy any day of the week. But now there’s scientific evidence to prove this.

A recent survey found that a whopping 92 percent of women could remember the first pair of shoes they bought with their own money. That’s a whole lot more than the two out of three women who could remember the name of the person they first kissed.

Amazingly, 96 percent of women have felt sorry about throwing away of pair of shoes, whereas only 15 percent regret dumping a boyfriend.

More than 1,000 women were surveyed about their footwear habits for the website tszuji.co.uk.

Experts say that many women buy shoes to mark a special occasion like a birthday or wedding. Those shoes end up having a special memory tied to the occasion and women hang on to them for a long period, building up a sizable collection.

So men, now you know where you stand. Somewhere well below a pair of great high heels.

[via Telegraph.co.uk]

photo credit: LaMadrileña

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