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So far this year, the public perception of whether we’re in a deflationary or inflationary environment has tended to turn on the lack of year over year price increases. This has created the impression among many investors that inflation is “tame” despite the fact that prices have been rising all year.

When the the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported CPI data last month, it said that prices were 0.2 percent lower than October 2008. This pretty much white washed the fact that the month over month movement was a 0.3 percent increase. The cumulative rise in prices over the first 10 months of this year has been 2.8 percent.  But hardly anyone noticed.

But all that is about to change.  The year over year comparisons are about flip into positive territory. Economist Bob Murphy points out that on December 16, the government will release the data for November’s CPI reading. At that point, the year over year data will begin reflecting the fact that prices fell dramatically at the end of 2008.

“[I]f November’s prices rise above October’s prices at the same average rate as has occurred so far this year, then the BLS will say that consumer prices are up 1.7 percent from November 2008,” Murphy writes.

He goes on to explain:

The real fun will come in mid-January, when the BLS has to issue the numbers for December’s prices. At that point the full CPI drop in late 2008 will have worked its way through the 12-month window, and the public will finally realize just how far prices have been rising. Again, if we simply plug in the average price hikes so far in 2009, the government will report in January that the December 2009 CPI was a full 2.7 percent higher than prices from a year earlier. Thus in two short months the public will snap from thinking we are still stuck in deflation to realizing that official price measures have been rising for quite some time.

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See Also:

• Greenspan: Bernanke Is Out Of Bullets, Now Inflation Is The Big Risk
• Martin Armstrong: Wild Inflation Coming, New Highs For Gold And The Dow
• Uh-Oh: One By One, The Fed’s Inflation Hawks Are Speaking Up

Google shares hit a new 52-week high this morning — $596.13 — after Jefferies jacked its price target up to $695, which would represent 17% further gains.

Why so bullish? Jefferies analyst Youssef Squali says in a note this morning:

Rising CPCs Amid Strong Demand. Our European and US channel checks suggest that online advertising continues to improve, with 1) Oct/Nov being record months for many SEMs, with strong momentum into Dec., 2) over 65% of online ad budgets continue to go to Search, with Google claiming the lion’s share, and 3) Display is improving, with 2010 budgets looking to be up mid-single digits Y/Y for several large advertisers.

Positive Read-across from Other Ad-focused Names. Commentary out of YHOO, AOL and VCLK last week points to strengthening demand fromadvertisers. Yahoo! reported seeing sequential improvement in RPS (revenue per search) and CPMs in 4Q, while AOL was able to successfully raise prices on premium inventory with more to follow in 2010.

E-commerce Growth Positive for Online Advertising. Online sales are up 3%Y/Y holiday season to-date (Nov 1-Dec 6), supporting the prospect for a modestly positive growth in  e-commerce this holiday season vs. a 3% decline last year. GOOG, with its ability to cost effectively drive traffic to e-tailers, stand to benefit disproportionately. Checks with agencies suggest double digit CPC increases in certain retail categories.

Some excitement may also be around Google’s new foray into mobile. The company will sell its own unlocked Google phone beginning next year.

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See Also:

• Google Phone Could Infuriate Android Partners And Kill Google’s Profit Margins (GOOG)
• Google Has Become A Vast Repository Of Keyword SPAM
• Google Phone Could Cost $500 Or More (GOOG)

UT economist and national Internet taxation expert Bill Fox comments in this AP story on Hawaiian lawmakers considering a hike in their general excise tax, the state’s version of a sales tax.

Analyst Tom Conrad has an excellent piece on Mexico’s peak oil crisis at AltEnergy.com, wherein he explains why shorting Mexico Country ETFs would be a good call.

[T]he Mexican Federal revenues dropped 12% in the first half of 2009 because of falling oil production.  This is not a one-time hit to the budget, but part of an ongoing decline.  That means that Mexican government revenues are permanently 12% lower, and likely to decline further as oil production declines further.  

…

With declining revenues, default and/or devaluation seems almost inevitable.  No option would be good for Mexican companies.  

Shorting Mexico

If the Mexican Governments’ fiscal situation is so dire, it makes sense to short Mexican companies, especially if the short is part of a hedge against exposure to world financial markets.  With a hedge, the investor only needs to be confident that things are liable to get worse in Mexico more rapidly than elsewhere, or not get better as quickly.

Read the whole thing here.

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See Also:

• Mexico Spends Over $1 Billion To Hedge Against Looming Oil Collapse
• 3 Reasons Mexico Should Stop Exporting Its Oil

Googlers are hurrying to finish and launch whatever they’re working on before holidays when, rumor has it, Google is issuing a code freeze until the next year. We’ve certainly seen a fair share of announcements and new features lately, big and small , and it’s not over yet. A couple of new features, spotted by the Google Operating System blog, are the “Cartoons” and “Slideshows” filters making their appearance on Google Video search.

Their use is self-evident, it limits the search results to just cartoons or slideshows as determined by Google’s video analysis algorithm. In theory, it sounds OK and the filters make a nice addition to the rather short list, which currently allows users to select between “All Videos,” “Full Length” and “Closed Captioned,” but in practice, they fail to deliver the desired results a surprisingly high number of times. They’re not completely useless though, for most searches they should do a decent enough job.

Still, they’re a rather small update for a service which doesn’t seem to be on the priority list at Google. At most, it looks like something it does because it has to, you can’t have a search engine without a dedicated video search, but that’s pretty much it, when it comes to video, Google onl… (read more)

When it comes to Santa Claus and food, I’m not alone when I say that I only thought of him eating cookies, milk, hot chocolate and the occasional candy cane. This little idea has been perpetuated in holiday movies, like The Santa Clause, as well. But according to Santa’s North Pole Cookbook: Classic Christmas Recipes from Saint Nicholas Himself there are many more recipes, all traditional Christmas recipes from around the world, in Santa’s repertoire.

The cookbook starts off with breakfast and covers breads, appetizers, side dishes, main dishes, drinks and desserts. The origin country of each of the recipes is listed right in the table of contents, with some festive selections attributed to “The North Pole,” such as the Candy Cane Creme Brulee. When you turn to the main page for each of the other recipes, you’ll see a story about the origin of the recipe and the culture it comes from, as well as a discussion of why certain ingredients are used and what makes it a traditional Christmas dish. The recipes are simple and straightforward, and each is accompanied by a tip or two that should help you make them easily.

The cookbook is a great holiday piece, whether it’s for a gift of you just want it to keep around the house. The recipes can be made year round, but it is obviously a great place to look for holiday inspiration and simply to read some stories of other Christmas traditions.

Filed under: Hybrid, Hatchback, Toyota, Electric

In Japan today, Toyota officially launched its Prius Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) lease program. Over the next six months, Toyota will be building and deploying 600 examples of the plug-in Prius for testing primarilly in Japan, United States and Europe. The Japanese market will get 230 units, with 150 coming to the States and 200 going to Europe. The cars will be leased to government, commercial, and university fleets for field testing that help to gather more data on how PHEVs are used in the real world.

To accommodate plug-in charging the Prius gets a 5.2 kWh lithium ion battery pack in place of the standard nickel metal hydride unit. The battery and associated charging hardware appear to be the only significant mechanical changes to the PHEV. The motor and other hybrid hardware are apparently carried over intact. Even with the standard motor, Toyota claims a maximum EV speed of 62 mph.

On the Japanese JC08 cycle, the Prius can run about 14.5 miles before depleting the battery. It’s not clear what the performance level will be in EV mode and what sort of driving will trigger the engine to start up while the battery still has available power. Based on that driving cycle, the PHEV is rated at 72 mpg (U.S.) in post-EV hybrid mode which compares with the 50 mpg or so that we typically see in real use. Since the hybrid system is essentially unchanged, the 14 mile range is probably a bit optimistic. The combined efficiency based on a utility factor of .436 (43.6 percent of driving in EV mode) the Prius is rated at 134 mpg (U.S.). The PHEV Prius will undoubtedly get very good mileage, but we suspect that triple digits are unlikely for most people. During the presentation, Toyota also announced a target of retail sales for the PHEV of late 2011 at an “affordable” price. Video of the presentation and the press release are after the jump.

Presentations:

• Sustainable Mobility
• Prius PHEV Overview

[Source: Toyota]

Continue reading Toyota officially launches plug-in Prius program, retail sales in 2011

Toyota officially launches plug-in Prius program, retail sales in 2011 originally appeared on Autoblog on Mon, 14 Dec 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pew Research has some shocking data on Americans' believe in mysticism, shown below. First of all, almost one in five Americans believes in ghosts (see the middle table). Yet to make things more appalling, this number has actually doubled in just over a decade.

From 1996 to 2009, the percent of Americans who claim to have seen or been in the presence of a ghost has risen from 9% to 18%.

This would imply that American educational development could be reversing. The nation is 'un-educating' itself, if you will. It also means that one in five voters believes in ghosts.

Now, fair enough, probably more than one in five investors believes in efficient markets. But still, this Pew data is ridiculous. (Via Modeled Behavior)

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See Also:

• The American Prospect Savages Matt Taibbi For Savaging Obama
• Anthrax Scare Forces Evacuation Of Three Floors In American Express Tower
• Is Early Childhood Education An Investment In The Future Or A Giant Waste Of Money?

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A classic example of the lazy journalism of false equivalency …

Edward Lotterman – Real World Economics – Pioneer Press (TwinCities.com)

… Unlike in most other industrialized nations, U.S. citizens remain divided on whether climate change is really occurring. Indeed, the proportion that is skeptical is growing rather than shrinking…

…This is not a lack of consensus, but rather a fundamental division that is not likely to be solved in the foreseeable future. For significant portions of both camps, it has become a matter of faith rather than reason…

When one camp is aligned with the overwhelming majority of the peer reviewed and respected scientific literature, and the other camp is not, this is not a “matter of faith rather than reason”.

One camp is on the side of reason, the other camp is faith-based.

This is, at best, a lazy invocation of the easy cliché. Most likely, it’s intellectual cowardice.

Americans are finally saving again, after years of binge spending on houses and stuff to fill them.

That’s good for America, especially in the long term. But are you saving too much?

Most financial advisers will tell you to max out your 401(k) contributions, especially if your employer provides matching funds.  But that might not be the best idea for everyone, especially if you don’t anticipate living lavishly in your dotage.

Over at Punch Debt In The Face, personal finance blogger Debt Ninja explains why he is reducing his 401(k) contributions—basically because he wants to give himself a raise while he’s young to increase his standard of living. This will likely make him poorer when he’s older but that not necessarily an irrational trade off.

What’s more, locking money up in a 401(k) may not be all that wise if you consider the possibility of needing money in the short term.

Here’s Debt Ninja:

The third, and probably most important, reason I decided to reduce my retirement contribution by 3% is this: I had no plans for the short term. Sure saving 18% for retirement is great, but guess what? That doesn’t make me rich until I’m 60 years old. What if I want to have a good chunk of change accessible in my 40’s? What if I want to retire early, but don’t want to be penalized for withdrawing from my retirement accounts? Well my friends, this is where the ’short-term’ investing game comes in to play. I have to start exploring other means to grow my money. I have been so focused on retirement, I completely forgot to establish a game plan for my 30’s, 40’s, and 50’s.

(via Consumerist)

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See Also:

• Great News: If You Didn’t Panic, Your 401(K) Is Now Above Water
• The 401(k): RIP?
• 401 Not O(k) — Growing Movement To Ditch Them

 

 

Repeat after me: Fed Funds are set by the Federal Open Market Committee, don’t vary daily, and have no direct bearing on 30-yr mortgage rates. 30-yr mortgage rates are set by supply and demand through the bond markets, vary every day, and prices are adjusted by what investors & servicers want to see flowing into their portfolios.

According to Fed Chairman Bernanke, the Fed still expects the labor market to improve very slowly, so they are reluctant to remove monetary stimulus by raising rates. Fed officials believe that inflation will remain low for the next couple of years, meaning that there is little short-term pressure to raise rates. But mortgage rates are not set by the Fed, or their thoughts on inflation – they’re set by “the market”.

Hats off to Citigroup, who announced it has struck a deal with the government to return $20 billion in bailout money to taxpayers through a combination of stock and debt, the bulk of which would come from a $17 billion common stock offering. Citigroup received $45 billion of bailout money, and then the government converted $25 billion of its preferred-stock stake in the company into common stock over the summer. That effectively gave U.S. taxpayers a 34% stake in the company. It is nice to see some of “our” investments paying off. This pretty much leaves Wells Fargo as the largest mortgage investor still owing without a plan.

Abu Dhabi, one of the seven United Arab Emirates, will be giving Dubai, another one of the seven, a $10 billion “lifeline” to head off a bond default. T…

more on mortgage brokers, Financial Services Oversight Council, cram downs, Franklin American, Flagstar, Flagstar and 125’s, Caliber Funding, the economy, and joke of the day …  <<< CLICK HERE

It’s soup weather, and split pea soup is one of my personal favorites! It’s so easy to whip up, you’ll never eat it from a can again. Bonus: split peas soften while cooked, so you don’t need to soak them overnight!

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Q: I’ve heard that mussels are good sources of omega-3 fat. How do I serve something so complicated?

Mussels are a rich source of omega-3 fat, and preparing them is actually quite easy. When you bring fresh mussels home in a plastic bag, make sure to leave it open enough for them to breathe, and store the mussels in the refrigerator for no more than two days. Keep only those with unbroken shells that are tightly closed or that snap shut when tapped.

Just before cooking, put the mussels in a bowl of cold water to give the mussels time to expel sand from the shells. Use a brush to clean the shells as you rinse them. With a sharp knife, cut off the “beard” (the tough fibers coming out of the shell) and pull back toward the hinge where the shell sections join.

There are lots of ways to cook mussels, but here’s a simple one that is quick and does not require a recipe or measuring. Sauté some regular or green onions with shallots, garlic and/or celery in a little oil until wilted but not browned. Add some canned tomatoes and a small amount of broth or red or white wine.

After a couple of minutes, add the cleaned mussels and herbs like thyme or basil. Cook just until the mussels open, showing they are done, which takes only about five minutes. Serve over pasta or rice or with crusty bread to sop up the broth, accompanied by a simple salad.

Or expand this idea by serving the mussels in a classic dish like bouillabaisse or paella, adding other seafood and vegetables. The key is to watch mussels carefully as they cook, since overcooking will make them tough.

Q: Are the dates on food packages important for food safety or just suggestions for best quality?

These dates — “best by,” “sell by” and “use by” — mean different things and often are not required by federal law to be on the package. Most dates you see on food packages are not related to food safety; they tell you how long the product stays at peak quality. Those foods are safe and useable beyond those dates.

However, there are some important exceptions: Meat and poultry are labeled with “sell by” dates that are related to food safety. They should be cooked or frozen within two days after the sell-by date on the package.

Eggs may or may not have a “sell by” date, depending on state laws. Buy eggs before the date limit and use them within three to five weeks of purchase. As long as you store them properly — in their original carton and in the coldest part of the refrigerator (not the door) — even if the “sell-by” date expires during that time, the eggs are quite safe.

Infant formula and many baby foods are required to carry “use by” dates, which reflect quality as well as nutrient retention. For example, if stored too long, formula can separate and clog the nipple. Don’t buy or use baby formula or baby food after its “use-by” date.

Of course, if foods are mishandled, bacteria can grow and cause foodborne illness regardless of the date on the package. For example, if cold cuts were left at room temperature more than two hours, they wouldn’t be safe even if the date had not expired.

Q: Is it true that a woman’s weight affects her tendency for hot flashes and night sweats during menopause?

The causes of night sweats and hot flashes in the years surrounding menopause are still not completely understood. Women who are more overweight seem to be more likely to have moderate or severe hot flashes, according to a few population studies.

There’s also limited research linking weight gain and lower levels of physical activity to hot flashes. A study that followed 1,659 midlife women for four years showed that gains in body fat were associated with greater odds of hot flashes, even after adjusting for a variety of menopausal factors and hormone levels. Night sweats, however, were not related to body fat changes in this study.

Considering that a landmark report on diet and cancer risk by the American Institute for Cancer Research concluded that obesity increases risk of postmenopausal breast cancer, there’s plenty of reason to take action if you see increases on the scale, waist measure or pants size. You can usually stop weight gain with simple steps like reducing daily food and drink choices by 100 or 200 calories and adding an extra 15 or 20 minutes of walking or other moderate activity to your current average.

(This article was provided by the American Institute for Cancer Research in Washington, D.C. A registered dietician is available to respond to questions about diet, nutrition, and cancer at the free AICR Hotline at 1 (800) 843-8114 during business hours.)

From the RSS feed of CalorieLab News (REF3076322B7)

Karen Collins on mussels, use-by dates and weight and menopause

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ISOC (Internet Society) has recently announced a $2.5 million donation to the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) that will span across a period of three years, helping the organization with its recent struggles in restructuring its working groups. The donation was announced on December 11, 2009 in a joint press release.

Famous for its Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF), the ISOC has announced a firm position alongside the W3C in its efforts to bring more complete development standards to an erratic Internet. ISOC, a renowned leader itself in Internet standards, has managed and successfully contributed in developing standard suites like SMTP (Simple MailTransfer Protocol), the Domain Name System (DNS) and the TCP/IP internet/networking protocol suite.

On the other hand, even if not as old as the ISOC, the W3C is responsible for some protocols like HTTP (Hypertext Transfer Protocol), HTML (HyperText Markup Language) and SOAP (Simple Object Access Protocol).

“ISOC and W3C have worked together for years in a number of areas, and have deeply shared values about the Internet’s development,” said Lynn St. Amour, President and CEO of the Internet Society. “Our support to the W3C in their transition efforts demonstrates ISOC’s commitment to ensuring the Internet continues to be an open, global platform for… (read more)

In case you haven’t been paying attention, there’s yet to be a good reason put forth for using DRM that I can remember. We’ve seen over and over again how DRM seems to interfere with legitimate actions, but does nothing at all to slow down “pirates.” Slashdot points to a rather scary situations for those who used Microsoft Office 2003 to DRM certain documents for their own use. Apparently, a screwup on the part of Microsoft (oops) means that many people got locked out of their own documents. Basically, Microsoft let a certificate expire, and that’s made life difficult for lots and lots of people. So what good is DRM again?

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