{"id":105339,"date":"2009-12-21T18:55:11","date_gmt":"2009-12-21T23:55:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.grist.org\/article\/2009-12-21-copenhagen-prognosis-the-almost-overwhelming-challenge-of-a-carb\/"},"modified":"2009-12-21T18:55:11","modified_gmt":"2009-12-21T23:55:11","slug":"copenhagen-prognosis-the-almost-overwhelming-challenge-of-a-carbon-free-civilization","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/105339","title":{"rendered":"Copenhagen Prognosis: The &#8216;almost overwhelming challenge&#8217; of a carbon-free civilization"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\t\t\t\tby Brad Johnson <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.grist.org\/topic\/copenhagen-climate-talks\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Cross-posted from the <a href=\"http:\/\/wonkroom.thinkprogress.org\/2009\/12\/21\/copenhagen-prognosis\/\">Wonk Room<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>A new scientific report, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sei-international.org\/?p=publications&amp;task=view&amp;pid=1349\">Copenhagen Prognosis<\/a>,<br \/>outlines the terrible challenge the world faces from climate change&#8212;as well as several paths to safety. World leaders in Copenhagen<br \/>struggled to come to a provisional accord that would provide a<br \/>framework for sustainable civilization. But a team of the world&#8217;s top<br \/>climate scientists have offered a stinging indictment of the political<br \/>process, noting that the unofficial commitments made are &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/sei-international.org\/mediamanager\/documents\/Publications\/Climate-mitigation-adaptation\/a20copenhagen20prognosis.pdf\">not consistent with the expressed political will to protect humanity<\/a>:&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>A broader analysis of tipping points and feedbacks reinforces the conclusion that <strong>greenhouse<br \/>gas (GHG) emission reductions targets currently being tabled within the<br \/>political realm are not consistent with the expressed political will to<br \/>protect humanity<\/strong> against high risks of devastating climate impacts and significant risks of self-amplifying global warming.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.grist.org\/member\/email-subscriptions\/\"><\/a>The Prognosis indicates that for a &#8220;good chance&#8221; (75 percent) of avoiding<br \/>&#8220;major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the<br \/>century and beyond &#8230; global GHG emissions would almost certainly need<br \/>to decline extremely rapidly after 2015, and reach essentially zero by<br \/>midcentury.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>This is indeed an &#8220;almost overwhelming challenge,&#8221; but &#8220;there is no evidence suggesting it is impossible:&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>To the contrary, the growing body of analytical work examining such scenarios at the global and regional level suggest it is <strong>not only technically feasible but also economically affordable, even profitable<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>It should come as little surprise that a clean-energy economy is not<br \/>just more sustainable but more profitable than one based on the<br \/>reckless waste of unrecoverable resources&#8212;but economists are just now<br \/>beginning to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dnaindia.com\/money\/comment_the-global-mismanaged-economy-is-a-ponzi-scheme_1323390\">recognize that fact<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/wonkroom.thinkprogress.org\/2009\/12\/19\/copenhagen-accord\/\">Copenhagen Accord<\/a> reaffirms the goal of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees C<br \/>above pre-industrial levels, but negotiators jettisoned the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.americanprogress.org\/issues\/2009\/12\/carbon_equivalents.html\">target of cutting global warming emissions in half by 2050<\/a>. Even that goal, the Copenhagen Prognosis finds, is utterly insufficient:<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>The Copenhagen Prognosis was prepared by top climate scientists, including the <a href=\"http:\/\/sei-international.org\/\">Stockholm Environment Institute<\/a>&#8216;s Sivan Kartha, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pik-potsdam.de\/\">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research<\/a>&#8216;s Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, and was endorsed by IPCC director Rachendra Pachauri&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.teriin.org\/\">Energy Resources Institute<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ve passed the threshold of safety and security, and each<br \/>additional ton of carbon, each year emissions rise, each year<br \/>concentrations do not drop&#8212;we are killing people.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>We need to separate the science&#8212;that we are at unsafe levels of<br \/>greenhouse gases and our destabilized climate is killing people&#8212;from<br \/>the policy of setting deadlines and targets.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>We know that any deadline or target to eradicate hunger and poverty<br \/>is insufficient, but we make them anyway. We need the same<br \/>understanding with climate change.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Related Links:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.grist.org\/article\/2009-12-29-copenhagen-blame-game-is-obstacle-to-2010-climate-deal\/\">Copenhagen blame game is obstacle to 2010 climate deal<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.grist.org\/article\/2009-12-29-greenpeace-spain-demands-denmark-release-its-director\/\">Greenpeace Spain demands Denmark release its director<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.grist.org\/article\/what-happens-now-for-the-forests\/\">What happens now for the forests?<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<br clear=\"both\" style=\"clear: both;\"\/><br \/>\n<br clear=\"both\" style=\"clear: both;\"\/><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/ads.pheedo.com\/click.phdo?s=b70d4490f3bad7aa0084093b607f98b9&#038;p=1\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" style=\"border: 0;\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/ads.pheedo.com\/img.phdo?s=b70d4490f3bad7aa0084093b607f98b9&#038;p=1\"\/><\/a><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"0\" width=\"0\" border=\"0\" style=\"display:none\" src=\"http:\/\/a.rfihub.com\/eus.gif?eui=2223\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Brad Johnson Cross-posted from the Wonk Room. A new scientific report, the Copenhagen Prognosis,outlines the terrible challenge the world faces from climate change&#8212;as well as several paths to safety. World leaders in Copenhagenstruggled to come to a provisional accord that would provide aframework for sustainable civilization. But a team of the world&#8217;s topclimate scientists [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":765,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-105339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/765"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105339"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105339\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}