{"id":109499,"date":"2009-12-18T05:01:02","date_gmt":"2009-12-18T10:01:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.metasd.com\/?p=701"},"modified":"2009-12-18T05:01:02","modified_gmt":"2009-12-18T10:01:02","slug":"confidential-memo-off-track","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/109499","title":{"rendered":"Confidential memo: off track"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The headline today is that <a href=\"http:\/\/en.cop15.dk\/news\/view+news?newsid=3044\">emissions pledges don&#8217;t match needs<\/a>. A leaked UNFCC secretariat <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/environment\/2009\/dec\/17\/copenhagen-emissions-cuts-future-temperatures\">memo <\/a>indicates that current commitments hit 3C.<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">*<\/span> A <a href=\"http:\/\/climateinteractive.org\/\">ClimateInteractive<\/a> reference is scrawled in the margins. It&#8217;s interesting that this is regarded with surprise, as <a href=\"http:\/\/climateinteractive.org\/scoreboard\/scoreboard-science-and-data\/C-ROADS%20Analysis%20of%20Current%20Proposals090311.pdf\/view\">we said it<\/a> in March, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/climate\/2009\/0907\/full\/climate.2009.57.html\">Rogelj et al.<\/a> said it in Nature in June, and it was intuitively evident before that. <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.metasd.com\/2009\/12\/tracking-climate-initiatives\/\">Climatescoreboard, climateactiontracker, and others<\/a> are now monitoring the possible outcome in near-real-time. Our dream, over beers in Copenhagen on Thanksgiving in 2008, was to <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.pegasuscom.com\/Leverage-Points-Blog\/bid\/28832\/A-Bit-of-Radical-Transparency-Using-Feedback-to-Spur-Change\">provide fast feedback<\/a> to inject some reality into negotiations. It&#8217;s working!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">* <\/span><em>Update<\/em>: As <a href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2009\/12\/17\/copenhagen-is-not-on-the-verge-of-signing-a-treaty-that-would-lock-in-3c-warming\/\">Joe Romm<\/a> points out, the Guardian and other coverage is just wrong. The secretariat analysis covers current commitments prior to COP15, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">not<\/span> possible deals. The various drafts circulating (as you can see in analysis here this week) yield a wide range of outcomes, including 1.5C. There&#8217;s no way to nail down the final outcome until the contested bracketed text in the drafts is finalized.<\/p>\n<p><em>Update 2<\/em>: We at ClimateInteractive are doing lots of evaluation of draft language using <a href=\"http:\/\/climateinteractive.org\/simulations\/C-ROADS\/overview\">C-ROADS<\/a> and a simpler emissions model that I developed, but we&#8217;re not going to report on the outcome until there&#8217;s a definitive text. Some of the insights from that analysis are reported in posts here this week, but obviously it&#8217;s all hypothetical at this point.<\/p>\n<div id=\"_mcePaste\" style=\"overflow: hidden; position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px;\">http:\/\/en.cop15.dk\/news\/view+news?newsid=3044<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The headline today is that emissions pledges don&#8217;t match needs. A leaked UNFCC secretariat memo indicates that current commitments hit 3C.* A ClimateInteractive reference is scrawled in the margins. It&#8217;s interesting that this is regarded with surprise, as we said it in March, Rogelj et al. said it in Nature in June, and it was [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":818,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-109499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/818"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109499\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}