{"id":123306,"date":"2010-01-01T08:44:15","date_gmt":"2010-01-01T13:44:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2010\/01\/01\/goldman-sachs-10-questions-for-2010\/"},"modified":"2010-01-01T08:44:15","modified_gmt":"2010-01-01T13:44:15","slug":"goldman-sachs-10-questions-for-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/123306","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs: 10 Questions for 2010"},"content":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs\u00a0chief economist Jan Hatzius, in a year end note to clients, predicts sluggish economic growth in 2010 — too slow to keep unemployment from rising further — and says the Fed will keep its key interest-rate target near zero for the whole year.<\/p>\n

Here are 10 questions he says are looming over the economy, and his bottom line on each.<\/p>\n

1. Have house prices bottomed?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Probably not yet, but we are quite uncertain.<\/p>\n

2. Will banks become more willing to lend?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Probably yes.<\/p>\n

3. Will small-business activity pick up?<\/strong><\/p>\n

It should, but so far we are not seeing it.<\/p>\n

4. Will hiring revive?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes, but we expect the rate of job creation to reach only about 100,000 per month by the second quarter, not enough to push the unemployment rate down in a meaningful way.<\/p>\n

5. Does the savings rate have further to rise?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes, we think so.<\/p>\n

6. Will inflation fall further?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Very likely yes.<\/p>\n

7. Does the dollar pose an inflation risk?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Only to a very limited degree.<\/p>\n

8. Will Congress pass more fiscal stimulus?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes.<\/p>\n

9. How will the Fed \u0093sequence the exit\u0094?<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2010, the main form of \u0093exit\u0094 is likely to be an end to asset purchases. … We expect neither a hike in the funds rate nor outright sales of assets on the Fed\u0092s balance sheet in 2010 (or for that matter in 2011).<\/p>\n

10. Will the end to the [Fed’s] asset purchases tighten financial conditions?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Possibly, although the degree is highly uncertain.<\/p>\n

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Goldman Sachs\u00a0chief economist Jan Hatzius, in a year end note to clients, predicts sluggish economic growth in 2010 — too slow to keep unemployment from rising further — and says the Fed will keep its key interest-rate target near zero for the whole year. Here are 10 questions he says are looming over the economy, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":850,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-123306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/850"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=123306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123306\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=123306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=123306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=123306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}