{"id":136023,"date":"2010-01-04T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2010-01-04T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/the-chart-that-shows-it-will-be-a-long-long-time-before-theres-a-rate-hike-2010-1"},"modified":"2010-01-04T09:30:00","modified_gmt":"2010-01-04T14:30:00","slug":"the-chart-that-shows-it-will-be-a-long-long-time-before-theres-a-rate-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/136023","title":{"rendered":"The Chart That Shows It Will Be A Long, Long Time Before There&#8217;s A Rate Hike"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The chart below comes courtesy of Morgan Stanley analyst Teun Draaisma. It takes a look back at the last few recessions, and then the timing of three subsequent economic events: non-farm payroll growth, the peak in ISM new orders minus inventories, and then finally the first rate hike. As you can see, we haven&#8217;t even had the first two, and in the recent recessions, the rate hike (as shown by the green bar) comes significantly after the recession is over.<\/p>\n<p>Seeing as many suspect Bernanke will be uber-accommodative this time around &#8212; he practically promised his lack of desire to prick bubbles through rate hikes <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/better-regulation-not-better-monetary-policy-is-the-key-to-preventing-bubbles-2010-1\">in his speech this weekend<\/a> &#8212; it seems safe to say that a rate hike is nowhere on the horizon.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b41fafa00000000009164cf&amp;maxX=594&amp;maxY=374\" border=\"0\" alt=\"recessions rate hike\" width=\"594\" height=\"374\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Source: Morgan Stanley Equity Research: The Defining Feature Of 2010<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/the-chart-that-shows-it-will-be-a-long-long-time-before-theres-a-rate-hike-2010-1#comments\">Join the conversation about this story &#187;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/goldmans-giant-call-interest-rates-will-be-ultra-low-until-2012-2009-12\">Goldman&#8217;s Giant Call: No Fed Rate Hike Until 2012<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/better-regulation-not-better-monetary-policy-is-the-key-to-preventing-bubbles-2010-1\">Better Regulation, Not Better Monetary Policy, Is The Key To Preventing Bubbles<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/heres-10-reasons-there-wont-be-a-rate-hike-and-the-yield-curve-will-flatten-2009-12\">Here&#8217;s 10 Reasons There Won&#8217;t Be A Rate Hike And The Yield Curve Will Flatten<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/TheMoneyGame\/~4\/Uxy79nfYmtE\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The chart below comes courtesy of Morgan Stanley analyst Teun Draaisma. It takes a look back at the last few recessions, and then the timing of three subsequent economic events: non-farm payroll growth, the peak in ISM new orders minus inventories, and then finally the first rate hike. As you can see, we haven&#8217;t even [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-136023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=136023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136023\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=136023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=136023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=136023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}