{"id":136488,"date":"2010-01-04T15:32:49","date_gmt":"2010-01-04T20:32:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2010\/01\/04\/reinhart-and-rogoff-higher-debt-may-stunt-economic-growth\/"},"modified":"2010-01-04T15:32:49","modified_gmt":"2010-01-04T20:32:49","slug":"reinhart-and-rogoff-higher-debt-may-stunt-economic-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/136488","title":{"rendered":"Reinhart and Rogoff: Higher Debt May Stunt Economic Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>To all the reasons to worry about the rapid rise in government debt in the wake of the financial crisis, add another: It&#8217;ll stunt our growth.<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/aea\/conference\/program\/retrieve.php?pdfid=460\">a new paper<\/a> presented Monday at the annual meeting of the <strong>American Economic Association<\/strong>, <strong>Carmen Reinhart<\/strong> of the <strong>University of Maryland<\/strong> and <strong>Kenneth Rogoff<\/strong> of <strong>Harvard<\/strong> study the link between different levels of debt and countries&#8217; economic growth over the last two centuries. One finding: Countries with a gross public debt debt exceeding about 90% of annual economic output tended to grow a lot more slowly. For advanced countries above the 90% threshold, average annual growth was about two percentage points lower than for countries with public debt of less than 30% of GDP.<\/p>\n<p>The results are particularly relevant at a time when debt levels in the U.S. and other countries at the center of the financial crisis are rapidly approaching the 90% threshold. Gross government debt in the U.S., for example, stood at 85% of GDP in 2009 and will reach 108% of GDP by 2014, according to IMF projections. The U.K.&#8217;s gross government debt stood at 69% of GDP in 2009 and is expected to reach 98% of GDP by 2013.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If history is any guide,&#8221; the rising government debt &#8220;is very troubling for the U.S. and other advanced economies,&#8221; says Ms. Reinhart.<\/p>\n<p>The relationship between government debt burdens and growth is even stronger for emerging-market economies, Ms. Reinhart and Mr. Rogoff find. For countries above the 90% threshold, average annual growth was about three percentage points lower than for countries with public debt of less than 30% of GDP. The countries above the threshold also experienced much higher inflation: prices rose more than twice as fast as in countries with small debt burdens.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~at\/mDn9-_zfeDCqoHyLYvAezYnKS10\/0\/da\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~at\/mDn9-_zfeDCqoHyLYvAezYnKS10\/0\/di\" border=\"0\" ismap=\"true\"><\/img><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~at\/mDn9-_zfeDCqoHyLYvAezYnKS10\/1\/da\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~at\/mDn9-_zfeDCqoHyLYvAezYnKS10\/1\/di\" border=\"0\" ismap=\"true\"><\/img><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"feedflare\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?a=0dRPkgVvJ38:jYzn7JmvOTc:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?a=0dRPkgVvJ38:jYzn7JmvOTc:F7zBnMyn0Lo\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?i=0dRPkgVvJ38:jYzn7JmvOTc:F7zBnMyn0Lo\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?a=0dRPkgVvJ38:jYzn7JmvOTc:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?i=0dRPkgVvJ38:jYzn7JmvOTc:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?a=0dRPkgVvJ38:jYzn7JmvOTc:qj6IDK7rITs\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?d=qj6IDK7rITs\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/wsj\/economics\/feed\/~4\/0dRPkgVvJ38\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To all the reasons to worry about the rapid rise in government debt in the wake of the financial crisis, add another: It&#8217;ll stunt our growth. In a new paper presented Monday at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard study the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":850,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-136488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/850"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=136488"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136488\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=136488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=136488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=136488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}