{"id":154619,"date":"2010-01-08T13:15:48","date_gmt":"2010-01-08T18:15:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/climaterealists.com\/index.php?id=4838"},"modified":"2010-01-08T13:15:48","modified_gmt":"2010-01-08T18:15:48","slug":"climate-models-irreducibly-imprecise-by-doug-l-hoffman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/154619","title":{"rendered":"Climate Models Irreducibly Imprecise by Doug L. Hoffman"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Article Tags: <a href=\"http:\/\/climaterealists.com\/index.php?tid=176\" title=\"click to view more articles tagged &quot;Doug L. Hoffman&quot;\">Doug L. Hoffman<\/a><\/p>\n<p>  <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"bbcode_img_left\" src=\"http:\/\/www.theresilientearth.com\/files\/images\/instability-150.jpg\" alt=\"Image Attachment\" \/><br \/>\nA number of recent papers analyzing the nature of climate models have yielded a stunning result little known outside of mathematical circles\u2014climate models like the ones relied on by the IPCC contain \u201cirreducible imprecision.\u201d According to one researcher, all interesting solutions for atmospheric and oceanic simulation (AOS) models are chaotic, hence almost certainly structurally unstable. Further more, this instability is an intrinsic mathematical property of the models which can not be eliminated. Analysis suggests that models should only be used to study processes and phenomena, not for precise comparisons with nature.<\/p>\n<p>The ability to predict the future state of the Earth climate system, given its present state and the forcings acting upon it, is the holly grail of climate science. What is not fully appreciated by most is that,in the prediction of the evolution of that system, we are severely limited by the fact that we do not know with arbitrary accuracy the evolution equations and the initial conditions of the system. By necessity climate models work with a finite number of equations, from initial data determined with finite resolution from a finite set of observations. These limitations are further exacerbated by the addition of structural instability due to finite mesh discretization errors (the real world isn&#8217;t divided into boxes 10s or 100s of kilometers on a side; the impact of changing mesh size has been well documented in a number of <a  href=\"http:\/\/theresilientearth.com\/?q=content\/extinction-climate-change-modeling-mayhem\">recent studies<\/a>).<br \/>\n<br \/>\nSource: theresilientearth.com<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/climaterealists.com\/index.php?id=4838\">Read in full with comments \u00bb<\/a>  &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~a\/4mC-eTSZHn4Bqhz_rOAKd1GFcmE\/0\/da\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~a\/4mC-eTSZHn4Bqhz_rOAKd1GFcmE\/0\/di\" border=\"0\" ismap=\"true\"><\/img><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~a\/4mC-eTSZHn4Bqhz_rOAKd1GFcmE\/1\/da\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~a\/4mC-eTSZHn4Bqhz_rOAKd1GFcmE\/1\/di\" border=\"0\" ismap=\"true\"><\/img><\/a><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/ClimaterealistsNewsBlog\/~4\/WEqIzDpaq2Q\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Article Tags: Doug L. Hoffman A number of recent papers analyzing the nature of climate models have yielded a stunning result little known outside of mathematical circles\u2014climate models like the ones relied on by the IPCC contain \u201cirreducible imprecision.\u201d According to one researcher, all interesting solutions for atmospheric and oceanic simulation (AOS) models are chaotic, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-154619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=154619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154619\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=154619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=154619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=154619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}