{"id":168766,"date":"2010-01-09T14:28:16","date_gmt":"2010-01-09T19:28:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nw0.eu\/2010\/01\/09\/obama%e2%80%99s-yemeni-odyssey-targets-china.html"},"modified":"2010-01-09T14:28:16","modified_gmt":"2010-01-09T19:28:16","slug":"obama%e2%80%99s-yemeni-odyssey-targets-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/168766","title":{"rendered":"Obama\u2019s Yemeni odyssey targets China"},"content":{"rendered":"
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M K Bhadrakumar
\nAsia Times <\/a>
\nSaturday, January 9th, 2010<\/span><\/p>\n

A year ago, Yemeni President Ali Abdallah Saleh made
\nthe startling revelation that his country\u2019s security forces
\napprehended a group of Islamists linked to the Israeli intelligence
\nforces. \u201cA terrorist cell was apprehended and will be referred to
\nthe courts for its links with the Israeli intelligence services,\u201d
\nhe promised.<\/p>\n

Saleh added, \u201cYou will hear about the trial
\nproceedings.\u201d Nothing was ever heard and the trail went cold.
\nWelcome to the magical land of Yemen, where in the womb of time the
\nArabian Nights were played out.<\/p>\n

Combine Yemen with the mystique of Islam, Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda
\nand the Israeli intelligence and you get a heady mix. The head of the
\nUS<\/a> Central Command, General David Petraeus, dropped in at the capital,
\nSana\u2019a, on Saturday and vowed to Saleh increased American aid to
\nfight al-Qaeda. United States President Barack Obama<\/a> promptly echoed
\nPetraeus\u2019 promise, assuring that the US<\/a> would step up
\nintelligence-sharing and training of Yemeni forces and perhaps carry
\nout joint attacks against militants in the region.<\/p>\n

Another Afghanistan<\/a>?
\nMany accounts say that Obama<\/a>, who is widely regarded as a gifted and
\nintelligent politician, is blundering into a catastrophic mistake by
\nstarting another war that could turn out to be as bloody and chaotic
\nand unwinnable as Iraq<\/a> and Afghanistan<\/a>. Yes, on the face of it, Obama<\/a>
\ndoes seem erratic. The parallels with Afghanistan<\/a> are striking. There
\nhas been an attempt to destroy a US<\/a> plane by a Nigerian student who
\nsays he received training in Yemen. And America wants to go to war.<\/p>\n

Yemen, too, is a land of wonderfully beautiful rugged mountains that
\ncould be a guerilla paradise. Yemenis are a hospitable lot, like Afghan
\ntribesmen, but as Irish journalist Patrick Cockurn recollects, while
\nthey are generous to passing strangers, they \u201cdeem the laws of
\nhospitality to lapse when the stranger leaves their tribal territory,
\nat which time he becomes \u2018a good back to shoot at\u2019.\u201d
\nSurely, there is romance in the air \u2013 almost like in the Hindu
\nKush. Fiercely nationalistic, almost every Yemeni has a gun. Yemen is
\nalso, like Afghanistan<\/a>, a land of conflicting authorities, and with
\nforeign intervention, a little civil war is waiting to flare up.<\/p>\n

Is Obama<\/a> so incredibly forgetful of his own December 1 speech
\noutlining his Afghan strategy that he violated his own canons?
\nCertainly not. Obama<\/a> is a smart man. The intervention in Yemen will go
\ndown as one of the smartest moves that he ever made for perpetuating
\nthe US<\/a>\u2019s global hegemony. It is America\u2019s answer to
\nChina\u2019s surge.<\/p>\n

A cursory look at the map of region will show that Yemen is one of
\nthe most strategic lands adjoining waters of the Persian Gulf and the
\nArabian Peninsula. It flanks Saudi Arabia and Oman, which are vital
\nAmerican protectorates. In effect, Uncle Sam is \u201cmarking
\nterritory\u201d \u2013 like a dog on a lamppost. Russia has been
\ntoying with the idea of reopening its Soviet-era base in Aden. Well,
\nthe US<\/a> has pipped Moscow in the race.<\/p>\n

The US<\/a> has signaled that the odyssey doesn\u2019t end with Yemen.
\nIt is also moving into Somalia and Kenya. With that, the US<\/a> establishes
\nits military presence in an entire unbroken stretch of real estate all
\nalong the Indian Ocean\u2019s western rim. Chinese officials have of
\nlate spoken of their need to establish a naval base in the region. The
\nUS<\/a> has now foreclosed China\u2019s options. The only country with a
\ncoastline that is available for China to set up a naval base in the
\nregion will be Iran<\/a>. All other countries have a Western military
\npresence.<\/p>\n

The American intervention in Yemen is not going to be on the pattern
\nof Iraq<\/a> and Afghanistan<\/a>. Obama<\/a> will ensure he doesn\u2019t receive any
\nbody bags of American servicemen serving in Yemen. That is what the
\nAmerican public expects from him. He will only deploy drone aircraft
\nand special forces and \u201cfocus on providing intelligence and
\ntraining to help Yemen counter al-Qaeda militants\u201d, according to
\nthe US<\/a> military. Obama<\/a>\u2019s main core objective will be to establish
\nan enduring military presence in Yemen. This serves many purposes.<\/p>\n

A new great game begins
\nFirst, the US<\/a> move has to be viewed against the historic backdrop of
\nthe Shi\u2019ite awakening in the region. The Shi\u2019ites (mostly
\nof the Zaidi group) have been traditionally suppressed in Yemen.
\nShi\u2019ite uprisings have been a recurring theme in Yemen\u2019s
\nhistory. There has been a deliberate attempt to minimize the percentage
\nof Shi\u2019ites in Yemen, but they could be anywhere up to 45%.<\/p>\n

More importantly, in the northern part of the country, they
\nconstitute the majority. What bothers the US<\/a> and moderate Sunni Arab
\nstates \u2013 and Israel<\/a> \u2013 is that the Believing Youth
\nOrganization led by Hussein Badr al-Houthi, which is entrenched in
\nnorthern Yemen, is modeled after Hezbollah in Lebanon in all respects
\n\u2013 politically, economically, socially and culturally.<\/p>\n

Yemenis are an intelligent people and are famous in the Arabian
\nPeninsula for their democratic temperament. The Yemeni Shi\u2019ite
\nempowerment on a Hezbollah-model would have far-reaching regional
\nimplications. Next-door Oman, which is a key American base, is
\npredominantly Shi\u2019ite. Even more sensitive is the likelihood of
\nthe dangerous idea of Shi\u2019ite empowerment spreading to Saudi
\nArabia\u2019s highly restive Shi\u2019ite regions adjoining Yemen,
\nwhich on top of it all, also happen to be the reservoir of the
\ncountry\u2019s fabulous oil wealth.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia is entering a highly sensitive phase of political
\ntransition as a new generation is set to take over the leadership in
\nRiyadh, and the palace intrigues and fault lines within the royal
\nfamily are likely to get exacerbated. To put it mildly, given the vast
\nscale of institutionalized Shi\u2019ite persecution in Saudi Arabia by
\nthe Wahhabi establishment, Shi\u2019ite empowerment is a veritable
\nminefield that Riyadh is petrified about at this juncture. Its
\nthreshold of patience is wearing thin, as the recent uncharacteristic
\nresort to military power against the north Yemeni Shi\u2019ite
\ncommunities bordering Saudi Arabia testifies.<\/p>\n

The US<\/a> faces a classic dilemma. It is all right for Obama<\/a> to
\nhighlight the need of reform in Muslim societies \u2013 as he did
\neloquently in his Cairo speech last June. But democratization in the
\nYemeni context \u2013 ironically, in the Arab context \u2013 would
\ninvolve Shi\u2019ite empowerment. After the searing experience in
\nIraq<\/a>, Washington is literally perched like a cat on a hot tin roof. It
\nwould much rather be aligned with the repressive, autocratic government<\/a>
\nof Saleh than let the genie of reform out of the bottle in the oil
\nrich-region in which it has profound interests.<\/p>\n

Obama<\/a> has an erudite mind and he is not unaware that what Yemen
\ndesperately needs is reform, but he simply doesn\u2019t want to think
\nabout it. The paradox he faces is that with all its imperfections, Iran<\/a>
\nhappens to be the only \u201cdemocratic\u201d system operating in
\nthat entire region.<\/p>\n

Iran<\/a>\u2019s shadow over the Yemeni Shi\u2019ite consciousness
\nworries the US<\/a> to no end. Simply put, in the ideological struggle going
\non in the region, Obama<\/a> finds himself with the ultra-conservative and
\nbrutally autocratic oligarchies that constitute the ruling class in the
\nregion. Conceivably, he isn\u2019t finding it easy. If his own memoirs
\nare to be believed, there could be times when the vague recollections
\nof his childhood in Indonesia and his precious memories of his own
\nmother, who from all accounts was a free-wheeling intellectual and
\nhumanist, must be stalking him in the White House corridors.<\/p>\n

Israel<\/a> moves in
\nBut Obama<\/a> is first and foremost a realist. Emotions and personal
\nbeliefs drain away and strategic considerations weigh uppermost when he
\nworks in the Oval Office. With the military presence in Yemen, the US<\/a>
\nhas tightened the cordon around Iran<\/a>. In the event of a military attack
\non Iran<\/a>, Yemen could be put to use as a springboard by the Israelis.
\nThese are weighty considerations for Obama<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The fact is that no one is in control as a Yemeni authority. It is a
\ncakewalk for the formidable Israeli intelligence to carve out a niche
\nin Yemen \u2013 just as it did in northern Iraq<\/a> under somewhat
\ncomparable circumstances.<\/p>\n

Islamism doesn\u2019t deter Israel<\/a> at all. Saleh couldn\u2019t
\nhave been far off the mark when he alleged last year that Israeli
\nintelligence had been exposed as having kept links with Yemeni
\nIslamists. The point is, Yemeni Islamists are a highly fragmented lot
\nand no one is sure who owes what sort of allegiance to whom. Israeli
\nintelligence operates marvelously in such twilight zones when the
\nhorizon is lacerated with the blood of the vanishing sun.<\/p>\n

Israel<\/a> will find a toehold in Yemen to be a god-sent gift insofar as
\nit registers its presence in the Arabian Peninsula. This is a dream
\ncome true for Israel<\/a>, whose effectiveness as a regional power has
\nalways been seriously handicapped by its lack of access to the Persian
\nGulf region. The overarching US<\/a> military presence helps Israel<\/a>
\npolitically to consolidate its Yemeni chapter. Without doubt, Petraeus
\nis moving on Yemen in tandem with Israel<\/a> (and Britain). But the
\n\u201cpro-West\u201d Arab states with their rentier mentality have no
\nchoice except to remain as mute spectators on the sidelines.<\/p>\n

Some among them may actually acquiesce with the Israeli security
\npresence in the region as a safer bet than the spread of the dangerous
\nideas of Shi\u2019ite empowerment emanating out of Iran<\/a>, Iraq<\/a> and
\nHezbollah. Also, at some stage, Israeli intelligence will begin to
\ninfiltrate the extremist Sunni outfits in Yemen, which are commonly
\nknown as affiliates of al-Qaeda. That is, if it hasn\u2019t done that
\nalready. Any such link makes Israel<\/a> an invaluable ally for the US<\/a> in
\nits fight against al-Qaeda. In sum, infinite possibilities exist in the
\nparadigm that is taking shape in the Muslim world abutting into the
\nstrategic Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all about China
\nMost important, however, for US<\/a> global strategies will be the massive
\ngain of control of the port of Aden in Yemen. Britain can vouchsafe
\nthat Aden is the gateway to Asia. Control of Aden and the Malacca
\nStrait will put the US<\/a> in an unassailable position in the \u201cgreat
\ngame\u201d of the Indian Ocean. The sea lanes of the Indian Ocean are
\nliterally the jugular veins of China\u2019s economy. By controlling
\nthem, Washington sends a strong message to Beijing that any notions by
\nthe latter that the US<\/a> is a declining power in Asia would be nothing
\nmore than an extravagant indulgence in fantasy.<\/p>\n

In the Indian Ocean region, China is increasingly coming under
\npressure. India is a natural ally of the US<\/a> in the Indian Ocean region.
\nBoth disfavor any significant Chinese naval presence. India is
\nmediating a rapprochement between Washington and Colombo that would
\nhelp roll back Chinese influence in Sri Lanka. The US<\/a> has taken a
\nu-turn in its Myanmar policy and is engaging the regime there with the
\nprimary intent of eroding China\u2019s influence with the military
\nrulers. The Chinese strategy aimed at strengthening influence in Sri
\nLanka and Myanmar so as to open a new transportation route towards the
\nMiddle East, the Persian Gulf and Africa, where it has begun contesting
\ntraditional Western economic dominance.<\/p>\n

China is keen to whittle down its dependence on the Malacca Strait
\nfor its commerce with Europe and West Asia. The US<\/a>, on the contrary, is
\ndetermined that China remains vulnerable to the choke point between
\nIndonesia and Malaysia.<\/p>\n

An engrossing struggle is breaking out. The US<\/a> is unhappy with
\nChina\u2019s efforts to reach the warm waters of the Persian Gulf
\nthrough the Central Asian region and Pakistan. Slowly but steadily,
\nWashington is tightening the noose around the neck of the Pakistani
\nelites \u2013 civilian and military \u2013 and forcing them to make a
\nstrategic choice between the US<\/a> and China. This will put those elites
\nin an unenviable dilemma. Like their Indian counterparts, they are
\ninherently \u201cpro-Western\u201d (even when they are
\n\u201canti-American\u201d) and if the Chinese connection is important
\nfor Islamabad, that is primarily because it balances perceived Indian
\nhegemony.<\/p>\n

The existential questions with which the Pakistani elites are
\ngrappling are apparent. They are seeking answers from Obama<\/a>. Can Obama<\/a>
\nmaintain a balanced relationship vis-a-vis Pakistan and India? Or, will
\nObama<\/a> lapse back to the George W Bush era strategy of building up India
\nas the pre-eminent power in the Indian Ocean under whose shadow
\nPakistan will have to learn to live?<\/p>\n

US<\/a>-India-Israel<\/a> axis
\nOn the other hand, the Indian elites are in no compromising mood. Delhi
\nwas on a roll during the Bush days. Now, after the initial misgivings
\nabout Obama<\/a>\u2019s political philosophy, Delhi is concluding that he
\nis all but a clone of his illustrious predecessor as regards the broad
\ncontours of the US<\/a>\u2019s global strategy \u2013 of which containment
\nof China is a core template.<\/p>\n

The comfort level is palpably rising in Delhi with regard to the
\nObama<\/a> presidency. Delhi takes the surge of the Israeli lobby in
\nWashington as the litmus test for the Obama<\/a> presidency. The surge suits
\nDelhi, since the Jewish lobby was always a helpful ally in cultivating
\ninfluence in the US<\/a> Congress, media and the rabble-rousing
\nthink-tankers as well as successive administrations. And all this is
\nhappening at a time when the India-Israel<\/a> security relationship is
\ngaining greater momentum.<\/p>\n

United States Defense Secretary Robert Gates is due to visit Delhi
\nin the coming days. The Obama<\/a> administration is reportedly adopting an
\nincreasingly accommodative attitude toward India\u2019s longstanding
\nquest for \u201cdual-use\u201d technology from the US<\/a>. If so, a
\nmassive avenue of military cooperation is about to open between the two
\ncountries, which will make India a serious challenger to China\u2019s
\ngrowing military prowess. It is a win-win situation as the great Indian
\narms bazaar offers highly lucrative business for American companies.<\/p>\n

Clearly, a cozy three-way US<\/a>–Israel<\/a>-India alliance provides the
\nunderpinning for all the maneuvering that is going on. It will have
\nsignificance for the security of the Indian Ocean, the Persian Gulf and
\nthe Arabian Peninsula. Last year, India formalized a naval presence in
\nOman.<\/p>\n

All-in-all, terrorism<\/a> experts are counting the trees and missing the
\nwood when they analyze the US<\/a> foray into Yemen in the limited terms of
\nhunting down al-Qaeda. The hard reality is that Obama<\/a>, whose main plank
\nused to be \u201cchange\u201d, has careened away and increasingly
\ndefaults to the global strategies of the Bush era. The freshness of the
\nObama<\/a> magic is dissipating. Traces of the \u201crevisionism\u201d in
\nhis foreign policy orientation are beginning to surface. We can see
\nthem already with regard to Iran<\/a>, Afghanistan<\/a>, the Middle East and the
\nIsrael<\/a>–Palestine<\/a> problem, Central Asia and towards China and Russia.<\/p>\n

Arguably, this sort of \u201creturn of the native\u201d by Obama<\/a>
\nwas inevitable. For one thing, he is but a creature of his
\ncircumstances. As someone put it brilliantly, Obama<\/a>\u2019s presidency
\nis like driving a train rather than a car: a train cannot be
\n\u201csteered\u201d, the driver can at best set its speed, but
\nultimately, it must run on its tracks.<\/p>\n

Besides, history has no instances of a declining world power meekly
\naccepting its destiny and walking into the sunset. The US<\/a> cannot give
\nup on its global dominance without putting up a real fight. And the
\nreality of all such momentous struggles is that they cannot be fought
\npiece-meal. You cannot fight China without occupying Yemen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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