{"id":168791,"date":"2010-01-09T05:00:24","date_gmt":"2010-01-09T10:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nw0.eu\/2010\/01\/09\/solar-geomagnetic-index-reaches-unprecedented-low-%e2%80%93-only-%e2%80%9czero%e2%80%9d-could-be-lower-%e2%80%93-in-a-month-when-sunspots-became-more-active.html"},"modified":"2010-01-09T05:00:24","modified_gmt":"2010-01-09T10:00:24","slug":"solar-geomagnetic-index-reaches-unprecedented-low-%e2%80%93-only-%e2%80%9czero%e2%80%9d-could-be-lower-%e2%80%93-in-a-month-when-sunspots-became-more-active","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/168791","title":{"rendered":"Solar geomagnetic index reaches unprecedented low \u2013 only \u201czero\u201d could be lower \u2013 in a month when sunspots became more active"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Watts Up With That?<\/a>
\nFriday, January 8th, 2010<\/p>\n

Back on December 12th 2009 I posted an article titled:<\/p>\n

Solar geomagnetic activity is at an all time low \u2013 what does this mean for climate?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Solar<\/a><\/p>\n

We then had a string of sunspots in December that marked what many
\nsaw as a rejuvenation of solar cycle 24 after a long period of
\ninactivity. See December sunspots on the rise<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

It even prompted people like Joe Romm to claim:<\/p>\n

The hottest decade ends and since there\u2019s no Maunder mininum \u2014 sorry deniers! \u2014 the hottest decade begins<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

But what Joe doesn\u2019t understand is that sunspots are just one
\nproxy, the simplest and most easily observed, for magnetic activity of
\nthe sun. It is the magnetic activity of the sun which is central to
\nSvensmark\u2019s theory of galactic cosmic ray modulation, which may
\naffect cloud cover formation on earth, thus affecting global
\ntemperatures. As the theory goes, lower magnetic activity of the sun
\nlets more GCR\u2019s into our solar system, which produce microscopic
\ncloud seed trails (like in a Wilson cloud chamber<\/a>) in our atmosphere, resulting in more cloud cover, resulting in a cooler planet. Ric Werme has a nice pictorial here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

When I saw the SWPC Ap geomagnetic index for Dec 2009 posted
\nyesterday, my heart sank. With the sunspot activity in December, I
\nthought surely the Ap index would go up. Instead, it crashed.<\/p>\n

\"Solar<\/a><\/p>\n

Annotated version above \u2013 Source: http:\/\/www.swpc.noaa.gov\/ftpdir\/weekly\/Ap.gif<\/a><\/p>\n

Source data: http:\/\/www.swpc.noaa.gov\/ftpdir\/weekly\/RecentIndices.txt<\/a><\/p>\n

When you look at the Ap index on a larger scale, all the way back to
\n1844 when measurements first started, the significance of this value of
\n\u201c1\u2033 becomes evident. This graph from Dr. Leif Svalgaard
\nshows where we are today in relation to the past 165 years.<\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\"Solar<\/a> click for full sized image <\/div>\n

Source: http:\/\/www.leif.org\/research\/Ap-Monthly-Averages-1844-Now.png<\/a><\/p>\n

With apologies to Dr. Svalgaard, I\u2019ve added the
\n\u201c1\u2033 line and the most current SWPC value of \u201c1\u2033
\nfor Dec 2009.<\/p>\n

As you can see, we\u2019ve never had such a low value before, and the only place lower to go is \u201czero\u201d.<\/p>\n

But this is only part of the story. With the Ap index dwindling to a
\nwisp of magnetism, it bolsters the argument made by Livingston and Penn
\nthat sunspots may disappear altogether by 2015. See Livingston and Penn \u2013 Sunspots may vanish by 2015<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Solar<\/p>\n

Above:<\/strong> Sunspot magnetic fields measured by
\nLivingston and Penn from 1992 \u2013 Feb. 2009 using an infrared
\nZeeman splitting technique. [more<\/a>] from the WUWT article: NASA: Are Sunspots Disappearing?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The theory goes that once the magnetic strength falls below 1500 gauss, sunspots will become invisible to us<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note where we are on this curve that Dr. Svalgaard also keeps of LP\u2019s measurements:<\/p>\n

\"http:\/\/nw0.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/HLIC\/d5bfa3e629f66fc30fa8731e1d86f7df.png\" click to enlarge <\/div>\n

Source: http:\/\/nw0.eu<\/a>\/wp-content\/uploads\/HLIC\/d5bfa3e629f66fc30fa8731e1d86f7df.png<\/a><\/p>\n

It appears that we are on track, and that\u2019s a chilling thought.<\/p>\n

NOTE TO COMMENTERS AND MODERATORS:<\/strong><\/span>
\nNo off-topic discussions of Landscheidt, \u201celectric
\nuniverse\u201d, or \u201ciron sun\u201d will be permitted on this
\nthread. All will be snipped. Stay on topic. \u2013 Anthony<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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