{"id":183100,"date":"2010-01-15T06:06:29","date_gmt":"2010-01-15T11:06:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/iea-says-developed-world-oil-demand-already-looking-weaker-than-expected-2010-1"},"modified":"2010-01-15T06:06:29","modified_gmt":"2010-01-15T11:06:29","slug":"iea-says-developed-world-oil-demand-already-looking-weaker-than-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/183100","title":{"rendered":"IEA Says Developed-World Oil Demand Already Looking Weaker Than Expected"},"content":{"rendered":"

Some interesting commentary this morning from the International Energy Agency, which released its latest oil market outlook.<\/p>\n

While the organization sees global aggregate demand basically unchanged from its last forecast, it’s reducing its estimates for OECD demand, despite the harsh winter and attendant demand for heating oil.<\/p>\n

Forecast  global  oil  demand  remains  virtually  unchanged  for  both  2009  and  2010,  as  weaker preliminary  data  for  the  OECD  offset  more  buoyant  readings  in  non\u2010OECD  countries. Global oil demand is expected to average 84.9 mb\/d in 2009 (\u20101.5% or \u20101.3 mb\/d year\u2010on\u2010year) and 86.3 mb\/d in 
2010 (+1.7% or +1.4 mb\/d versus the previous year). Growth continues to be driven by non\u2010OECD 
countries, most notably in Asia. Oil demand recovery in the OECD is likely to remain sluggish, despite a 
bout of recent cold weather. 
 
• The OECD oil demand projection is adjusted down by 50 kb\/d on average in both 2009 and 2010 
given weaker\u2010than\u2010expected preliminary data for Europe and North America. The fall in oil demand in 
2009 is estimated at 4.4% year\u2010on\u2010year (\u20102.1 mb\/d), with demand averaging 45.5 mb\/d and remaining 
flat in 2010. However, the forecast faces downside risks for this year, with the largest OECD economies 
(the US, Japan and Germany) featuring a sluggish recovery and persistently weak oil demand. <\/p>\n

Naturally, the picture is a bit better in the non-OECD developing world, yet even there it’s not all roses. A big part of the expected growth is owed to expected continuing Chinese stimulus.<\/p>\n

Forecast non\u2010OECD oil demand has been revised up by roughly 70 kb\/d for both 2009 and 2010, 
largely due to higher\u2010than\u2010expected Chinese data. Assuming that the impact of China’s government 
stimulus programme continues to be felt during most of this year, non\u2010OECD demand is expected to 
reach 40.9 mb\/d (+3.7% or +1.4 mb\/d on a yearly basis), after growing by 2.0% (+0.8 mb\/d) in 2009. <\/p>\n

And here’s what they say on the subject of the cold snap:<\/p>\n

The cold wave that hit the northern hemisphere in the past few weeks has led many observers to 
predict a surge in oil demand, driven by heating and power generation needs, and an erosion of OECD 
distillate stocks. However, such reasoning overlooks the fact that the already relatively small share of 
oil for heating and power generation is shrinking in the OECD, as oil is gradually replaced by other 
energy sources, most notably natural gas. Moreover, it remains to be seen whether this winter overall 
will be much colder on average than last year’s, which was particularly cold. As such, it would be 
premature  to  boost  our  1Q10  forecast,  which  assumes  similar  weather  conditions  to  those  that prevailed last year. <\/p>\n

The following chart gives a nice look at how different global demand growth across the world looks.<\/p>\n

\"oil
  <\/p>\n

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