{"id":195734,"date":"2010-01-18T18:06:57","date_gmt":"2010-01-18T23:06:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/its-over-scott-brown-is-the-31-favorite-over-martha-coakley-2010-1"},"modified":"2010-01-18T18:06:57","modified_gmt":"2010-01-18T23:06:57","slug":"its-over-scott-brown-is-the-31-favorite-over-martha-coakley","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/195734","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s Over: Scott Brown Is The 3:1 Favorite Over Martha Coakley"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown&#8217;s opponent, Martha Coakley. We have traditionally categorized races in which one side has between a 60 and 80 percent chance of winning as &#8220;leaning&#8221; toward that candidate, and so that is how we categorize this race now: Lean GOP. Nevertheless, there is a higher-than-usual chance of large, correlated errors in the polling, such as were observed in NY-23 and the New Hampshire Democratic primary; the model hedges against this risk partially, but not completely.<\/p>\n<h2><a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\/2010\/01\/538-model-posits-brown-as-31-favorite.html\"><strong>Read the rest of the post at FiveThirtyEight.com &#8212; &gt;<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/its-over-scott-brown-is-the-31-favorite-over-martha-coakley-2010-1#comments\">Join the conversation about this story &#187;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/jim-cramer-markets-will-surge-wednesday-if-coakley-loses-2010-1\">Jim Cramer: Markets Will Surge Wednesday If Coakley Loses<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/heres-what-will-happen-to-healthcare-stocks-if-scott-brown-wins-tomorrow-2010-1\">Here&#8217;s What Will Happen To Healthcare Stocks If Scott Brown Wins Tomorrow<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/scott-brown-peaked-two-days-too-early-2010-1\">Scott Brown Peaked Two Days Too Early<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/TheMoneyGame\/~4\/yVmPWrxsEwE\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown&#8217;s opponent, Martha Coakley. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":617,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-195734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/617"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=195734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195734\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=195734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=195734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=195734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}