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Google (GOOG) reports Q409 earnings after the close today. The call will be at 4:30 PM EST. We’ll be analyzing the earnings live here, starting at 4pm.<\/p>\n
The Bottom Line:<\/strong> Google’s stock has been hit in the past week on the company’s ultimatum to China (in which the company clumsily backed itself into a corner<\/a>). The core business, however, appears to be recovering strongly, and the market is counting on strong results. <\/p>\n Specifically, the market expects the company to beat consensus estimates of $4.9 billion in revenue and $6.45 in EPS.<\/p>\n Most investors are expecting sequential revenue growth in the 10%-11% range. Anything below that will probably hammer the stock. <\/p>\n Background:<\/strong> At $575, the stock is priced at about 22X 2010 earnings, which is below historical levels of about 30-times, but still pretty rich for a company this huge. <\/p>\n Key Consensus Estimates: <\/strong><\/p>\n Here’s a quick outlook from JP Morgan’s Imran Khan:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Here is a snapshot from Citi analyst Mark Mahaney:<\/p>\n Join the conversation about this story »<\/a><\/p>\n See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n Google (GOOG) reports Q409 earnings after the close today. The call will be at 4:30 PM EST. We’ll be analyzing the earnings live here, starting at 4pm. The Bottom Line: Google’s stock has been hit in the past week on the company’s ultimatum to China (in which the company clumsily backed itself into a corner). […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-208329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=208329"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208329\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=208329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=208329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=208329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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We see net revenue of $5.11B. <\/strong>This implies Q\/Q revenue growth of 16.6%. We see the US market growing 10% Q\/Q.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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We expect aggregate paid click growth of 12% Q\/Q or 16% Y\/Y. <\/strong>This is a slight acceleration from the 3Q growth rate of 14% Y\/Y and roughly in line with 2Q’s 15% growth and 1Q’s 17% Y\/Y growth.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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We see EBITDA margins declining. <\/strong>We are modeling an EBITDA margin of 61.9%, down 130 bps sequentially but up 190 bps Y\/Y. During the call, we will be looking for color on our expectations for an increased cost structure in 2010 due to acquisitions, increases in headcount, and product and infrastructure investments.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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We are modeling a pro forma EPS of $6.85. <\/strong>This implies 34% Y\/Y growth which is an acceleration from 20% growth in 3Q. We think this is reasonable given our expectations for 21% Y\/Y net revenue growth and Y\/Y costs increases of less than $300M. We are modeling CapEx of $400M, compared to $368M in 4Q’08 and $186M last quarter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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Commentary to watch for. <\/strong>We will be listening for insight into ad budget trends, CPC levels, strategic investment and infrastructure needs, an update on the China operations, and insight into the mobile device strategy.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
![\"Google](\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4b5877b800000000000f825b\/google-earnings-cheat-sheet.png\")
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