{"id":226982,"date":"2010-01-25T14:56:43","date_gmt":"2010-01-25T19:56:43","guid":{"rendered":"tag:business.theatlantic.com,2010:\/\/3.34139"},"modified":"2010-01-25T15:30:58","modified_gmt":"2010-01-25T20:30:58","slug":"why-i-still-think-health-care-wont-pass","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/226982","title":{"rendered":"Why I Still Think Health Care Won&#8217;t Pass"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s something of a revival of hopes this week among the progressive commentariat.&nbsp; Perhaps this isn&#8217;t so bad, they are telling themselves, and me.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s why I think it isn&#8217;t going to happen:<\/p>\n<p><script src=\"http:\/\/www.pollster.com\/flashcharts\/scripts\/javascript\/loess.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><br \/>\n<embed src=\"http:\/\/www.pollster.com\/flashcharts\/flash\/swfs\/chart.swf?xml=http:\/\/www.pollster.com\/flashcharts\/content\/xml\/HealthCare.xml&amp;choices=Oppose,Favor&amp;phone=&amp;ivr=&amp;internet=&amp;mail=&amp;smoothing=&amp;from_date=&amp;to_date=&amp;min_pct=&amp;max_pct=&amp;grid=&amp;points=&amp;trends=&amp;lines=&amp;colors=Favor-000000,Oppose-BF0014,Undecided-A69A37,No%20Opinion-68228B&amp;e=1\" width=\"450\" height=\"346\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" allowfullscreen=\"false\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\"><\/p>\n<p>Health care&#8217;s popularity drops any time Congress discusses it.&nbsp; With respect to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\/2010\/01\/health-care-polls-opinion-gap-or.html\">Nate Silver<\/a>, who argues that the bill would be popular if they ever passed it and could discuss what&#8217;s in it, you cannot &#8220;prove&#8221; that voters like a bill because various bits of it poll well on their own.&nbsp; Do I want a sous vide machine?&nbsp; Certainly!&nbsp; I could take a poll that would show nine or ten wonderful things I would love about owning a sous vide machine.&nbsp; Am I going to buy one?&nbsp; No I am not, because it costs hundreds of dollars I need for other things.<\/p>\n<p>Almost everything polls well on its own, except tax increases.&nbsp; But as in my example, deciding whether you want something is not a matter of simple addition of positives and negatives.&nbsp; Some negatives, like price tag, can outweigh even a stunning array of positives.&nbsp; The things that poll badly:&nbsp; price tag, excise tax, individual mandate.&nbsp; These are crucial components that can&#8217;t be gotten rid of.&nbsp; <\/p>\n<p>Moreover, many of the pieces that poll well, like deficit reduction, are things that voters like, but don&#8217;t believe this bill will achieve.&nbsp; They&#8217;re not going to believe it any more after you pass the bill through a process that involves buying off every special interest group in sight.&nbsp; <\/p>\n<p>Legislators are not unaware of this problem, and they cannot be magicked into ignoring their constituents by saying, &#8220;These are not the polls you are looking for.&#8221;&nbsp; <\/p>\n<p>I think <a href=\"http:\/\/yglesias.thinkprogress.org\/archives\/2010\/01\/how-close-were-we-really.php\">Yglesias<\/a> is right that this process was always more fragile than it appeared.&nbsp; As I read it, majorities of both houses do not want to pass this bill&#8211;otherwise, they wouldn&#8217;t have run for the exits so quick.&nbsp; They were looking for an excuse that they could deploy without risking retaliation from the leadership&#8211;and what the Massachusetts election showed, is that they don&#8217;t have all that much to fear from the leadership, because the leadership may not be there after November. Reid&#8217;s almost certain to lose his seat, and Pelosi may lose her majority in the house.<\/p>\n<p>They don&#8217;t want to say they want to kill it, of course.&nbsp; So instead, they&#8217;re doing pretty much what I expected:&nbsp; putting it on the back burner.&nbsp; We <i>want <\/i>to pass health care, but we just have a few things to do first . . . <\/p>\n<p>Once it goes on the back burner, it&#8217;s over.&nbsp; As time goes by, voters will be thinking less and less about the health care bill they hated, and more and more about other things in the news.&nbsp; There is not going to be any appetite among Democrats for returning to this toxic process and refreshing those bad memories.&nbsp; They&#8217;re going to want to spend the time between now and the election talking about things that voters, y&#8217;know, like.<br clear=\"both\" style=\"clear: both;\"\/><br \/>\n<br clear=\"both\" style=\"clear: both;\"\/><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:942da7892cbfbf08167e29ca72b0664c:goUJdw6xRQG2WQ6TktV6NszjRDNxSMxV669U0z8QS75YxneRb3g32uCGNtfizJJqoAglQGuccZxL'><img border='0' title='Email this Article' alt='Email this Article' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/emailthis.png'\/><\/a><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:81e5b8c1eb931cb989462ffc1d0b7c1b:7mEltN6s5rguOlZBZX56vT2Ii5bj865kqroyoQxSuj50mWG8cHmqFCX1SWDRlRdQD8tvfWmVlfmx'><img border='0' title='Add to digg' alt='Add to digg' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/digg.gif'\/><\/a><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:6182f37a3eb7361193bdac117a4f4005:FglSVtPVdL8K7qwMBSlOIrGqB%2B8qaIvSfcwGK%2BpkY4BK%2B3%2BPu%2B56OIbbq6Z3C1p%2BkU2fbpCsCKju'><img border='0' title='Add to Reddit' alt='Add to Reddit' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/reddit.png'\/><\/a><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:10fcccd054ec7ebc469090f7da8a5e62:C7NnJM%2FEaBd%2BKcLqeGvesAeBc7qaX%2FVz%2FdAfyolS75dAua3DK6yAAHoFh7RQu%2BaUfWIWz27RGfkWHQ%3D%3D'><img border='0' title='Add to Twitter' alt='Add to Twitter' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/twitter.png'\/><\/a><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:27c30a6b2244797f99657ce662db1d8b:V8P2irH1DFXDS%2B83cit%2BxmH5vmWd2kzkpIoE3d2FbPsXdQeXvGsd7qi%2FMaEoVFW3y8z1VXUxTwzt'><img border='0' title='Add to del.icio.us' alt='Add to del.icio.us' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/delicious.gif'\/><\/a><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:01431eef33545834da3158f8dc7411b7:Up0%2BUV0jcKJcTh%2FoKnGknNQwVA3OfskIzAZMKrqqi7Em%2Fsxf4MRNl5unstdC9of0v%2FdMZa0IHQyG7Q%3D%3D'><img border='0' title='Add to StumbleUpon' alt='Add to StumbleUpon' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/stumbleit.gif'\/><\/a><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:12c4ca6f1249c83fff54a21bdd4b792e:QsS3mg5cffQ4QrPXp7%2FZPCQV7woFCe65e4YT%2Bgqd49txqZAjKjYGepaTKY1FjeJyLTLYFQLGop%2BRRw%3D%3D'><img border='0' title='Add to Facebook' alt='Add to Facebook' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/facebook.gif'\/><\/a><br \/>\n<br clear=\"both\" style=\"clear: both;\"\/><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/ads.pheedo.com\/click.phdo?s=1e2b18093f420ac9180fe91aa665f631&#038;p=1\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" style=\"border: 0;\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/ads.pheedo.com\/img.phdo?s=1e2b18093f420ac9180fe91aa665f631&#038;p=1\"\/><\/a><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" height=\"0\" width=\"0\" border=\"0\" style=\"display:none\" src=\"http:\/\/a.rfihub.com\/eus.gif?eui=2225\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/AtlanticBusinessChannel\/~4\/LqoX0aqScbI\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s something of a revival of hopes this week among the progressive commentariat.&nbsp; Perhaps this isn&#8217;t so bad, they are telling themselves, and me. Here&#8217;s why I think it isn&#8217;t going to happen: Health care&#8217;s popularity drops any time Congress discusses it.&nbsp; With respect to Nate Silver, who argues that the bill would be popular [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":80,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-226982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/80"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=226982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226982\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=226982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=226982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=226982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}