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The dust has settled a little, but this is still an extraordinarily volatile political climate. Conventional wisdom has been that with polarization so high and tempers so raw, the climate\/energy bill is doomed. I’ve been holding out slivers of hope, though. The Obama administration and Harry Reid have both recently reiterated that they want a comprehensive bill this session.<\/p>\n
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<\/a>Now, however, it looks like Sen. Lindsey Graham—the token Republican working on the Kerry\/Graham\/Lieberman “tripartisan” bill—has officially bailed on an economy-wide cap-and-trade system<\/a>:<\/p>\n “Realistically, the cap-and-trade bills in the House and the Senate are going nowhere,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who is trying to fashion a bipartisan package of climate and energy measures. “They’re not business-friendly enough, and they don’t lead to meaningful energy independence.”<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Mr. Graham said the public was demanding that any energy legislation from Washington focus on creating jobs, whether by drilling for offshore oil or building wind turbines.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n “What is dead is some massive cap-and-trade system that regulates carbon in a fashion that drives up energy costs,” he said.<\/p>\n To me, regardless of what Obama or Reid may want, this signals the death knell for a comprehensive cap-and-trade program, this year and probably for the duration of Obama’s term in office. If Graham won’t go for it, no Republican will, certainly not the 6-8 Republicans needed. Indeed, opposition to cap-and-trade has become part of the Republican purity pledge<\/a>. As long as the rabid teabag base has total control over the party, there will be no flexibility on this. And 41 senators is all they need to block it.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Graham’s comments seem to point to an alternative that’s been much-discussed recently: a scaled-back cap-and-trade program that would cover only the electricity sector. That would be coupled with some version of the (pitifully weak<\/a>) American Clean Energy Leadership Act passed by Bingaman’s Energy Committee last year, with additional subsidies for offshore drilling and nuclear power.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Would the resulting bill be worth a damn? Put it this way: it would be possible to craft a good package of climate and energy legislation with a cap-and-trade system covering utilities, ambitious renewable energy mandates, stringent energy efficiency regulations, and a massive round of investments in clean energy.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n That’s not what will pass. My prediction is that whatever K\/G\/L come up with will look more or less like energy policy over the last 20 years: a hodgepodge of subsidies and tax breaks for favored industries. At this point there seems little hope left of anything better.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n There’s much to discuss about the bill, the political fight that will take shape around it, and the best way forward for clean energy advocates in coming years. For now I just wanted to mark what looks to me like the final passing of the dream of an economy-wide price on carbon.<\/p>\n Related Links:<\/strong><\/p>\n Bin Laden blames industrial nations for global warming<\/a><\/p>\n U.S. government to cut greenhouse emissions by 28 percent<\/a><\/p>\n Ben Nelson’s logically incoherent stance on cap-and-trade<\/a><\/p>\n
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