![\"ted_20100114.png\"](\"http:\/\/meganmcardle.theatlantic.com\/ted_20100114.png\")
<\/a>The\nnumber of long term unemployed has shot up relative to the people who
\nfind jobs relatively quickly. To some extent, this is normal for a
\nrecession; employment tends to be a lagging indicator, as cautious
\nemployers use existing workers to fill rising production orders, rather
\nthan taking on more employees that they might have to later fire.<\/p>\n
But That has particular implications for a But That The initial estimate is that fourth quarter GDP grew at a blistering 5.7% annual pace. With the usual caveats–third quarter GDP estimates started high and then were revised down to a much more modest level–that’s great news. But man cannot live by GDP alone. I’d argue that the better measure of whether the economy has […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":80,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-246517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/80"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=246517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246517\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=246517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=246517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=246517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nthe last two recessions were characterized by lingering
\nunemployment–the infamous “jobless recovery” under Clinton and Bush.
\nOne theory for why this is true comes from a paper by Erica Groshen and
\nSimon Potter, which suggests<\/a>
\nthat increasingly, America’s unemployment tends to be structural rather
\nthan cyclical. In the old economy, aggregate demand collapsed for some
\nreason, and workers got laid off, then called back to work when orders
\nrecovered. These days, it is more likely that your job and industry
\nhas gone away entirely.<\/p>\n
\nskilled economy. In 1930s, when FDR was trying to combat mass
\nlong-term unemployment, all he needed to do was create a construction
\nproject; most of the men in the country did some sort of hard physical
\nlabor. It was relatively easy to create jobs that they could fill.<\/p>\n
\nwhat kind of public works projects would absorb mortgage brokers or
\nmid-level managers? As jobs have gotten more skilled, more human
\ncapital is specific to firms, industry, and job classifications.<\/p>\n
\nmeans it’s going to take longer to transfer those workers into other
\nareas of the economy. Either they need to search harder to find a job
\nthat meets their skill set, or they need to get new skills. Either
\nway, that high unemployment number is probably going to be very
\nstubbornly persistent well into next year.
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