{"id":277352,"date":"2010-02-04T10:02:00","date_gmt":"2010-02-04T15:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"e2249889-c78b-43e3-9643-b1d7d4aa587b:391253"},"modified":"2010-02-04T10:02:00","modified_gmt":"2010-02-04T15:02:00","slug":"the-chinese-new-year-effect-on-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/277352","title":{"rendered":"The Chinese New Year ‘effect’ on markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chinese equity markets have been trending down lately, but it is not because of anything so mundane as monetary policy wrangling or a U.S. dollar rally. Rather, it is likely because of Chinese New Year, the most important \u2014 and longest \u2014 Chinese holiday.<\/p>\n

Martin Roberge, strategist with Dundee Capital Markets, said the Chinese stock market has declined 8.8% so far in the 30 days before the Chinese New Year, while the S&P 500 and S&P\/TSX Composite have slid 5.2% and 6.5% respectively. <\/p>\n

Mr. Roberge further crunched the numbers and found what he calls the "Chinese New Year Effect": since 1996, the Chinese stock market has declined on average 3.7% in the 30 days before the happy day and increased on average 1.8% in the 30 days after. The S&P 500 has trended down 1% prior and down 0.2% after the new year, while the TSX Composite averages up 1.6% before and -0.3% in the 30 days after.  <\/p>\n

"Chinese investors tend to flee the equity market ahead of the retail and manufacturing slowdown," he said in a note to clients. "The stock market bottoms about 10 trading days before the New Year day and then resumes its ascension. It usually takes about 50 days for the Chinese equity market to revisit its January highs."<\/p>\n

Chinese New Year festivities last for 15 days, while most businesses
\nclose for about a week. The Chinese calendar is based on the lunar
\ncycle, so the official holiday falls on a different day each year.  <\/p>\n

This year, Chinese New Year coincides with Valentine's Day, on Feb. 14. But don't worry about the markets on that particular day: it's a Sunday. <\/p>\n

Eric Lam<\/a> <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chinese equity markets have been trending down lately, but it is not because of anything so mundane as monetary policy wrangling or a U.S. dollar rally. Rather, it is likely because of Chinese New Year, the most important \u2014 and longest \u2014 Chinese holiday. Martin Roberge, strategist with Dundee Capital Markets, said the Chinese stock […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4586,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-277352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4586"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=277352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277352\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=277352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=277352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=277352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}