{"id":280585,"date":"2010-02-04T16:35:10","date_gmt":"2010-02-04T21:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.disinfo.com\/?p=21567"},"modified":"2010-02-04T16:35:10","modified_gmt":"2010-02-04T21:35:10","slug":"interview-with-institute-for-the-future-researcher-chris-arkenberg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/280585","title":{"rendered":"Interview With Institute for the Future Researcher Chris Arkenberg"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin: 10px 20px\" src=\"http:\/\/disinfo.s3.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/chris.arkenberg-286x300.jpg\" alt=\"chris arkenberg\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-21581\" width=\"286\" height=\"300\" \/>Via <a href=\"http:\/\/technoccult.net\/archives\/2010\/02\/04\/futurist-chris-arkenberg-interviewed-by-technoccult\/\">Technoccult<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>How exactly does forecasting work? What\u2019s the process like?<\/p>\n<p>To begin with, I\u2019d like to just underline that forecasting and prediction are very different. As futurists, we\u2019re not making predictions but, rather, making approximations based on existing trends. I like to think of it as collapsing probability space into the most likely futures.<\/p>\n<p>So having said that, there are many forecasting methodologies but most of them begin with scanning. This is a process of tracking information flows to get signals around your domain. Signals are essentially any event within the domain that you\u2019re researching. So you pay attention to as many data streams as possible to get a feel for the emerging trends, where the money is flowing, social politics, etc\u2026 And from this you can start to derive estimates of&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Via Technoccult: How exactly does forecasting work? What\u2019s the process like? To begin with, I\u2019d like to just underline that forecasting and prediction are very different. As futurists, we\u2019re not making predictions but, rather, making approximations based on existing trends. I like to think of it as collapsing probability space into the most likely futures. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2604,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-280585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2604"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=280585"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280585\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=280585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=280585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=280585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}