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Last summer, Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co.<\/a> predicted that stocks would fall 30%. That hasn’t happened yet, but the extraordinary bull run that made idiots out of many of Wall Street’s greatest gurus last year<\/a> has now finally reversed, and Gary is sticking by his bearish guns.<\/p>\n At Dow 10,000, Gary says, stocks are still priced to reflect a strong economic recovery throughout 2010 and 2011. And that’s not going to happen. Consumers still account for more than 70% of the spending in the U.S. economy, and consumers are retrenching. The value of their assets has plummeted, so they’re finally saving again. They’re unemployed. They’re tapped out. Put all that together, and consumer spending will continue to be weak, and the overall economy will only grow 2% a year.<\/p>\n When the market finally realizes that its dream of a v-shaped recovery is too optimistic, stocks will go lower–perhaps much lower. In fact, Gary thinks there’s a 40%-50% chance they’ll crash right through the bear-market lows set last spring.<\/p>\nSee why Gary thinks the stock-market may crash to a new low ><\/a><\/h2>\n