{"id":301352,"date":"2010-02-10T00:00:03","date_gmt":"2010-02-10T05:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.zillow.com\/blog\/?p=17545"},"modified":"2010-02-10T00:00:03","modified_gmt":"2010-02-10T05:00:03","slug":"zillow-q4-reports-recovery-of-home-values-slowing-some-markets-poised-for-double-dip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/301352","title":{"rendered":"Zillow Q4 Reports: Recovery of Home Values Slowing; Some Markets Poised for Double Dip"},"content":{"rendered":"

December brought signs that the fledgling recovery of home values in many markets is slowing again. U.S. home values got a bit lower again in December relative to November levels and the rate of decline got just a little bit higher as well.\u00a0 The\u00a0national\u00a0Zillow Home Value Index<\/a> (ZHVI) was down 0.21% on a monthly basis in December to $186,200 versus a monthly decline of 0.16% in November.\u00a0 Annualized depreciation was 5.0% nationally. See Figure 1 below for monthly and annualized rates of change for the ZHVI.<\/p>\n

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More significantly, a number of\u00a0large markets saw an end to their streak of consecutive monthly gains, including Atlanta<\/a>, Baltimore<\/a>, Boston<\/a>, Denver<\/a>, Minneapolis<\/a>, and Portland, Ore.<\/a> In total, one in five (29) of the 143 markets tracked by Zillow saw monthly depreciation or flattening\u00a0 of home values in December after having experienced at least five consecutive month-over-month increases in home values during 2009.\u00a0 If these declines are sustained, as we expect to happen in many markets, the result will be a \u201cdouble dip \u201d in home values, defined as two periods of sustained declines in home values separated by a brief period of stabilization or recovery.<\/p>\n

Home values<\/a> in an additional 29 markets, including the Los Angeles<\/a> and New York<\/a> metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), increased on a month-over-month basis each month throughout the fourth quarter. However, the rate of increase slowed from November to December in 21 of those markets, and several appear likely to experience several months of sustained decline in early 2010.<\/p>\n

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The percent of single family homes with mortgages in negative equity was essentially flat from the third to the fourth quarter, changing from 21 percent in Q3 to 21.4 percent in Q4. This comes after a decrease in negative equity from the second quarter\u2019s 23 percent.<\/p>\n

The number of homeowners losing their homes to foreclosure<\/a> across the country reached a peak in December, with more than one in every thousand homes being foreclosed \u2013 a number not reached since Zillow began recording national foreclosure data in 2000.<\/p>\n

While we\u2019ve had a brief respite in mid-2009 from home value declines in many markets, the larger market correction has still not fully run its course.\u00a0 The recent stabilization owed a lot to policy support in the form of tax credits, lower mortgage rates<\/a> and increased Federal Housing Administration lending. The remaining correction in home values we\u2019ll see in the first half of this year is a function of market fundamentals, such as the increasing flow of foreclosures, high levels of inventory in the market and a probable decrease in demand as the impact of the tax credit wanes and mortgage rates rise.<\/p>\n

While the next few months are likely to bring further home value declines in most markets, we do expect to see a national bottom in home prices by the middle of this year. Thereafter, home values are likely to bounce along the bottom with real appreciation remaining negligible for some time.\u00a0 This sustained period of languid real estate performance will really constitute the final leg of the housing downturn, as our possibilities are either sharper depreciation now followed by a sharper rebound off the bottom, or modest depreciation now followed by a long period of minimal appreciation.\u00a0 Either path results in home values getting to the same level ultimately in real, inflation-adjusted terms.\u00a0 The second path appears more likely at this point.<\/p>\n

\n<\/img><\/a> <\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

December brought signs that the fledgling recovery of home values in many markets is slowing again. U.S. home values got a bit lower again in December relative to November levels and the rate of decline got just a little bit higher as well.\u00a0 The\u00a0national\u00a0Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) was down 0.21% on a monthly basis […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5560,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-301352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/301352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5560"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=301352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/301352\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=301352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=301352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=301352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}