{"id":312456,"date":"2010-02-12T14:35:51","date_gmt":"2010-02-12T19:35:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2010\/02\/12\/economists-the-future-a-bit-brighter\/"},"modified":"2010-02-12T14:35:51","modified_gmt":"2010-02-12T19:35:51","slug":"economists-the-future-a-bit-brighter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/312456","title":{"rendered":"Economists: The Future A Bit Brighter"},"content":{"rendered":"

Economic forecasters surveyed quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia<\/strong> are a bit more optimistic<\/a> about the long-run, even as they predict near-term growth too slow to bring unemployment down quickly.<\/p>\n

The forecasters currently expect the U.S. gross domestic product to grow 2.70% per year, adjusted for inflation, over the next 10 years, up from 2.56% in the survey conducted a year earlier. Growth in productivity, or output per hour of work, is now expected to average 2.0%, up from the previous 1.9%. forecast (and much slower than recent spectacularly fast productivity growth.)<\/p>\n

Investors will fare better than the economists feared during the depths of the recession in the first quarter of 2008. They revised up their forecasts of the return on financial assets, with the exception of three-month Treasury bills. The forecasters see the S&P 500 returning 7.00% per year over the next decade, up from 6.50%, and 10-year Treasuries returning 4.95%, up from 4.85%. The forecasters expect that three-month Treasury bills will return 3.0% per year over the next 10 years.<\/p>\n

The forecasters surveyed by the Philly Fed see the unemployment rate, now at 9.7%, remaining high and averaging 9.4% in the first quarter of 2011. They expect GDP to grow at an inflation adjusted annual rate of 2.7% over the next five quarters. <\/p>\n

Long-Term (10-year) Forecasts (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nFirst Quarter 2009<\/td>\nCurrent Survey<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Real GDP Growth<\/td>\n2.56<\/td>\n 2.70<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Productivity Growth<\/td>\n1.90<\/td>\n2.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stock Returns (S&P 500)<\/td>\n6.50<\/td>\n7.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bond Returns (10-year)<\/td>\n4.85<\/td>\n4.95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bill Returns (3-month)<\/td>\n3.00<\/td>\n 3.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

<\/img><\/a>
\n<\/img><\/a><\/p>\n

\n<\/img><\/a> <\/img><\/a> <\/img><\/a> <\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Economic forecasters surveyed quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia are a bit more optimistic about the long-run, even as they predict near-term growth too slow to bring unemployment down quickly. The forecasters currently expect the U.S. gross domestic product to grow 2.70% per year, adjusted for inflation, over the next 10 years, up […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":850,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-312456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/850"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=312456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312456\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=312456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=312456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=312456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}