It looks like this:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.armscontrolwonk.com\/images\/1723.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
Perhaps you’d like more explanation than that?<\/p>\n
Faithful readers will recall that this subject has been covered here previously (see: Estimating SWU<\/span> with Expert Opinion<\/a>, December 6, 2009, and IR-1 Estimates Revisited<\/a>, January 18, 2010). The discussions summarized therein involved some disagreements — strong ones, at times.<\/p>\n But now, way down in Section 10<\/a> of a new ISIS<\/span> paper dated February 11, 2010, Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program: Taking Stock<\/a>, David Albright and Christina Walrond conclude that “the average separative capacity” of an individual IR-1 at the FEP<\/span> in Natanz is between 0.5 and 1.0 kg SWU<\/span>\/yr. <\/p>\n As a result, the experts’ estimates, depicted in the figure above, now largely overlap.<\/p>\n (There’s no significance to how high or low each estimate is placed in the histogram — that’s purely an aesthetic choice.) <\/p>\n In effect, we’ve just seen a slow-motion, public version of a “behavioral” approach to expert consensus: the question is argued until the participants converge, or as much as they’re willing. This is probably not the ideal approach, as there is evidence that a purely mathematical combination of initial estimates produces a better result. On the other hand, what happened is what happened. And, despite my original take<\/a>, it seems better not to try to aggregate numbers when none of the experts has stated the level of confidence surrounding their estimates (e.g., 90%, 95%, or 99%). With that caveat, though, there’s no reason not to draw a picture like the one above.<\/p>\n So here are the estimates that are represented visually above. <\/p>\n