\nstimulus help? Sure. But recovery.gov currently has a nifty graphic
\nshowing that of ARRA’s $787 billion in budget authority, the government
\nhas currently disbursed about $287 billion. You’d have to posit some
\nreally remarkable multipliers for the stimulus<\/a> to think that this prevented us from sliding into the Great Depression.<\/p>\n
For comparison’s sake, in 1930, GDP<\/a> So That’s a pretty high estimate, especially when you compare it to the CBO’s estimates<\/a> Of course, if you listen to someone like Robert Barro<\/a>, 1% is not nothing. But it’s not the difference I’m watching Obama claim that it is “largely thanks to the Recovery Act” that the recession didn’t become a depression. I supported the stimulus, and still do. But this claim is ludicrous. There’s really very little question that the main mistake which created the Great Depression was allowing the banking system to collapse. There were […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":80,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-332022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/80"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=332022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332022\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=332022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=332022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=332022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nfell by 8.6% in real terms. In 2009, the BEA says that it fell about
\n2.4%, or about $300 billion. Had it fallen by anything close to 8%,
\nthat would have meant a decline of roughly a trillion dollars.<\/p>\n
\nthe administration is claiming that by spending less than $300 billion,
\nit managed to prevent more than $700 billion in economic decline–in
\nother words, that the multiplier for their spending was higher than
\ntwo. They’re saying that every dollar they spent increased GDP by more
\nthan $2. <\/p>\n
\nof multipliers for various components of ARRA. Even if you take the
\ntop end of the range they give for every one of those multipliers,
\nyou’d still fall short, because the bits that give you the most
\nstimulative bang for your buck–the direct government spending–have so
\nfar disbursed the least money.<\/p>\n
\nyou’d use a multiplier of more like 0.6 or 0.7, implying that the
\nadministration has probably so far boosted GDP by maybe $150 billion,
\nor about 1%. <\/p>\n
\nbetween us and a band of desperate Okies hoping that the old Model T
\nwill make it all the way to California.
\n
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