{"id":335112,"date":"2010-02-18T07:09:00","date_gmt":"2010-02-18T12:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/morgan-stanley-dont-worry-europe-can-go-down-in-flames-and-america-will-be-fine-2010-2"},"modified":"2010-02-18T07:09:00","modified_gmt":"2010-02-18T12:09:00","slug":"morgan-stanley-dont-worry-europe-can-go-down-in-flames-and-america-will-be-fine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/335112","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley: Don&#8217;t Worry, Europe Can Go Down In Flames And America Will Be Fine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"float: left; padding: 15px 15px 15px 0;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\ntweetmeme_source = 'moneygame'; tweetmeme_service = 'bit.ly';\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><br \/>\n<script src=\"http:\/\/tweetmeme.com\/i\/scripts\/button.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Richard Berner at Morgan Stanley explains that while a European sovereign debt crisis would likely slow European economic growth substantially, and weaken the Euro, the U.S. would be relatively unscathed.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s because, relative to the entire global economy, America&#8217;s linkages to Europe aren&#8217;t actually that large. This is especially the case in terms of U.S. bank assets:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Richard Berner @ Morgan Stanley:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong> Limited spillover to the US:<\/strong> We estimate that a 1pp slowdown in European growth might shave 0.2% from that in the US. Three channels matter: exports, earnings and financial linkages. Europe accounts for about 29% of US exports, 8% of S&amp;P revenues and 4.6% of US banks&rsquo; total assets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4b7d2b2600000000003f3812-550-\/chart.png\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"550\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>Contagion tail risk:<\/strong> Contagion spreading from the European banking system is the biggest tail risk. If the crisis spills over into broader risk-aversion and a drying up of liquidity &ndash; the functional equivalent of the US subprime crisis &ndash; we believe that the consequences could be more dire.<\/p>\n<p>We believe the greater threat is probably in regards to sentiment. A major European crisis would increase risk aversion globally. Oddly enough, this would most likely mean a flight of capital <em>into<\/em> the U.S..<\/p>\n<p><em>Add my twitter for a hand-picked stream of posts like this: @vincefernando<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>(Via Morgan Stanley, US: A European Slowdown Would Only Nick The U.S., Richard Berner, 17 Feb 2010)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/morgan-stanley-dont-worry-europe-can-go-down-in-flames-and-america-will-be-fine-2010-2#comments\">Join the conversation about this story &#187;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/jpmorgan-load-up-on-risk-stay-long-the-us-dollar-and-try-to-avoid-europe-2010-2\">JPMorgan: Load Up On Risk, Stay Long The US Dollar, And Try To Avoid Europe<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/credit-default-swaps-now-deteriorating-fastest-for-europe-and-the-us-2010-2\">Credit Default Swaps Now Deteriorating Fastest For Europe&#8230; And The U.S.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/everyone-in-europe-has-been-cheating-on-each-other-2010-2\">Everyone In Europe Has Been Cheating On Each Other<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/TheMoneyGame\/~4\/577sGQNSmsU\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Richard Berner at Morgan Stanley explains that while a European sovereign debt crisis would likely slow European economic growth substantially, and weaken the Euro, the U.S. would be relatively unscathed. &nbsp; That&#8217;s because, relative to the entire global economy, America&#8217;s linkages to Europe aren&#8217;t actually that large. This is especially the case in terms [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-335112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/335112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=335112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/335112\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=335112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=335112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=335112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}