{"id":338676,"date":"2010-02-19T03:11:00","date_gmt":"2010-02-19T08:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1752027331714385066.post-2111287038820521584"},"modified":"2010-02-19T03:35:49","modified_gmt":"2010-02-19T08:35:49","slug":"planned-decadal-oil-production","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/338676","title":{"rendered":"Planned Decadal Oil Production"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This item sketches the apparent emerging oil production picture over the next decade.<\/span>  <\/span>The surprise is the expected levels of production out of <\/span>Iraq<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>.<\/span>  <\/span>I would like to believe them except that they arrive rather conveniently to reassure us all that there is no problem with oil supply.<\/span>  <\/span>The point is that we are been promised around 12 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

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The decline of current production is not predicted at all by anyone.<\/span>  <\/span>My own best guess is no guess at all except to say it could be fairly modest which is rather unlikely to massively catastrophic which is also unlikely.<\/span>  <\/span>The projected new production is around fifteen percent of current production over the next decade.<\/span>  <\/span>Yet all historic major fields are well into decline.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

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As I have stated in the past present production levels are not sustainable even with what is promised.<\/span>  <\/span>We need to be under 50 million barrels fairly soon.<\/span>  <\/span>The question is if we will be ahead of the curve or if we will be forced.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

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I do not know if we risk a present decline of twenty million barrels per day or not over the next decade.<\/span>  <\/span>Historical comparables suggest that it is so.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

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On a more upbeat note, enhanced production using THAI can make up any short fall by the end of the decade by producing deeper heavy oil everywhere.<\/span>  <\/span>Burning oil can remain an option for a couple of decades or more yet.<\/span>  <\/span>The pricing structure however will drive the development of every likely alternative<\/span> <\/span>and this will be a transition period.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

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The good news is that the transition may continue to be fairly smooth.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Latest Canadian Oilsand Production Growth Forecast and Summarizing Main World Oil Production Growth Sources<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n

FEBRUARY 10, 2010<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/h2>\n

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http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/_VyTCyizqrHs\/S3NKi0jvaDI\/AAAAAAAAGhs\/v67f98SKjug\/s320\/canadaoilsandsforecast2009.jpg<\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
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Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers have an updated forecast for canadian oil production and in particular the oilsands<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
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Wall Street Journal – Lower labour and material costs are enabling more oil sand projects to get restarted<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n

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<\/span><\/i>Adding Significant Oil in Iraq<\/st1:country-region>, Brazil<\/st1:country-region>, Canada<\/st1:country-region> and the United States<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/b><\/div>\n


Canada<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> will be adding a little of 1 million barrels of oil per day from now to 2020. More could be added if oil prices stay strong.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
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Iraq oil production could increase by 9.5 million barrels of oil per day over the next six years.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Brazil is projected to add 2-3 million barrels of oil per day by the largest private owner of Brazillian oil, Eike Batista<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n

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The United States is increasing its oil production and could add a million barrels per day or more over the next few years.<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n

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Wider application of horizontal drilling<\/span><\/a> <\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n

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<\/span><\/i>Canadian Oilsand<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/b><\/div>\n



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Economics coming into line for some projects<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
-Driven by stronger oil prices and lower costs<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
-Projects under construction:<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022Imperial<\/st1:placename> Kearl<\/st1:placename> Lake<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022Shell Jackpine and Shell upgrader including Quest CCS project<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
-Projects Re-activated<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022Suncor Firebag Phases 3 and 4<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022Devon<\/st1:place> Jackfish Phase 3 application in 2010<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022Cenovus<\/st1:placename> Christina<\/st1:placename> Lake<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place> \u2013application for phases E, F, G<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022ConocoPhillips\/Total \u2013Surmount phase 2<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022Husky\/BP \u2013Sunrise<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> phase 1<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
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http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/_VyTCyizqrHs\/S3NKpHHErGI\/AAAAAAAAGh0\/jBFSz3YRSM0\/s320\/canadaoilsandsforecast2009b.jpg<\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
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-Enhanced Oil\/Tight Oil<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022Technology enabled plays such as the Bakken, Cardium and Viking (multi-frac horizontal wells)<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022Narrow Light\/Heavy Differentials<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
-Good news for heavy oil projects<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
-Tough for stand alone upgraders in the short term<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
\u2022Competing against existing capacity left empty by Venezuela<\/st1:country-region> and Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
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http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/_VyTCyizqrHs\/S3NKvjzHNII\/AAAAAAAAGh8\/4mUDNBupDkk\/s320\/canadaoilsandsforecast2009c.jpg<\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n

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http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/_VyTCyizqrHs\/S3NK2NffgSI\/AAAAAAAAGiE\/YkWbFNvEJ24\/s320\/canadaoilsandsforecast2009d.jpg<\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
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This item sketches the apparent emerging oil production picture over the next decade.  The surprise is the expected levels of production out of Iraq.  I would like to believe them except that they arrive rather conveniently to reassure us all that there is no problem with oil supply.  The point is that we are been […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-338676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/338676","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=338676"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/338676\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=338676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=338676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=338676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}