{"id":339531,"date":"2010-02-19T07:12:56","date_gmt":"2010-02-19T12:12:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2010\/02\/19\/9075\/"},"modified":"2010-02-19T07:12:56","modified_gmt":"2010-02-19T12:12:56","slug":"previewing-friday%e2%80%99s-cpi-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/339531","title":{"rendered":"Previewing Friday\u2019s CPI Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Don&#8217;t mistake a jump in Friday&#8217;s consumer-price data as the start of an inflationary episode.<\/p>\n<div class=\"mceTemp\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<dl class=\"wp-caption alignright caption-alignright\" style=\"width: 183px;\">\n<dt class=\"wp-caption-dt\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5\" src=\"http:\/\/sg.wsj.net\/public\/resources\/images\/MI-BB561_AOT_NS_20100218182013.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"183\" height=\"244\" \/><\/dt>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Commerce Department is expected to say that its consumer-price index rose 0.3% in January, according to forecasters surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, adding up to a gain of 2.8% over the past year. January&#8217;s rise would represent another modest gain from the 0.2% increase in December.<\/p>\n<p>Consumer prices have staged a remarkable turnaround in the past six months after falling as much as 2% <script src=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/wp-includes\/js\/tinymce\/plugins\/wsj_embed\/langs\/en.js?ver=311\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><script src=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/wp-includes\/js\/tinymce\/plugins\/wsj_video\/langs\/en.js?ver=311\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script>on a yearly basis last July. The increase has been largely driven by a rebound in oil prices, which cratered during the recession to around $40 a barrel. They have doubled since then, pushing gasoline prices up 54% last year and nudging up prices of other goods as well.<\/p>\n<p>Those rising prices haven&#8217;t led to much inflation elsewhere. High unemployment means workers don&#8217;t have much bargaining power for wage hikes to cover rising costs &#8212; a hallmark of inflationary periods.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If this were happening and we had a 5% unemployment rate, then I think most economists would be very worried,&#8221; says <strong>Jay Bryson<\/strong>, Wells Fargo Securities global economist. &#8220;Today, you just don&#8217;t have that.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>He notes that, excluding gasoline and other goods, the consumer-price index for services like rent, education and health care &#8212; which make up 60% of the total index &#8212; has fallen sharply from a recent high of 4% in mid-2008 to 0.9% as of December.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, even those who worry inflation could eventually take hold if the Federal Reserve doesn&#8217;t act aggressively enough to drain the system of liquidity injected during the credit crisis &#8212; its discount-rate rise notwithstanding &#8212; see little sign of that happening right away.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That&#8217;s more an issue as we get to 2011 and beyond,&#8221;says <strong>Conrad DeQuadros<\/strong>, an economist with RDQ Economics. &#8220;I wouldn&#8217;t say we have a short-term fear of an inflation problem.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>If anything, the recent firming of consumer prices has helped soothe fears that the recession would lead to Japanese-style deflation in the U.S., a cycle of falling prices and wages that can be much tougher for policy makers to combat.<\/p>\n<p>For now, rising prices look to be the lesser of two evils.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~at\/2488wmqkgX6uAaJd7sYz5NCfPTY\/0\/da\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~at\/2488wmqkgX6uAaJd7sYz5NCfPTY\/0\/di\" border=\"0\" ismap=\"true\"><\/img><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~at\/2488wmqkgX6uAaJd7sYz5NCfPTY\/1\/da\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feedads.g.doubleclick.net\/~at\/2488wmqkgX6uAaJd7sYz5NCfPTY\/1\/di\" border=\"0\" ismap=\"true\"><\/img><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"feedflare\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?a=55iR4UZL4zs:HJQuTYrira0:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?a=55iR4UZL4zs:HJQuTYrira0:F7zBnMyn0Lo\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?i=55iR4UZL4zs:HJQuTYrira0:F7zBnMyn0Lo\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?a=55iR4UZL4zs:HJQuTYrira0:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?i=55iR4UZL4zs:HJQuTYrira0:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?a=55iR4UZL4zs:HJQuTYrira0:qj6IDK7rITs\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/wsj\/economics\/feed?d=qj6IDK7rITs\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/wsj\/economics\/feed\/~4\/55iR4UZL4zs\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Don&#8217;t mistake a jump in Friday&#8217;s consumer-price data as the start of an inflationary episode. The Commerce Department is expected to say that its consumer-price index rose 0.3% in January, according to forecasters surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, adding up to a gain of 2.8% over the past year. January&#8217;s rise would represent another modest [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":850,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-339531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/850"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=339531"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339531\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=339531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=339531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=339531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}