{"id":392085,"date":"2010-03-04T18:26:10","date_gmt":"2010-03-04T23:26:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.disinfo.com\/?p=24016"},"modified":"2010-03-04T18:26:10","modified_gmt":"2010-03-04T23:26:10","slug":"thinking-about-the-unthinkable-a-u-s-iranian-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/392085","title":{"rendered":"Thinking About the Unthinkable: A U.S.-Iranian Deal"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"IranBy George Friedman, head of the highly-respected forecasting company STRATFOR<\/a>:<\/p>\n

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The United States apparently has reached the point where it must either accept that Iran<\/a> will develop nuclear weapons<\/a> at some point if it wishes, or take military<\/a> action to prevent this. There is a third strategy, however: Washington can seek to redefine the Iranian question.<\/p>\n

As we have no idea what leaders on either side are thinking, exploring this represents an exercise in geopolitical theory. Let\u2019s begin with the two apparent stark choices.<\/p>\n

Diplomacy vs. the Military<\/a> Option<\/h3>\n

The diplomatic approach consists of creating a broad coalition prepared to impose what have been called crippling sanctions on Iran<\/a>. Effective sanctions must be so painful that they compel the target to change its behavior. In Tehran\u2019s case, this could only consist of blocking Iran<\/a>\u2019s imports of gasoline<\/a>. Iran<\/a> imports 35 percent of the gasoline it consumes. It is not clear that a gasoline embargo would be crippling, but it is the only embargo that might work. All other forms of sanctions against Iran<\/a> would be mere gestures designed to give the impression that something is being done.<\/p>\n

The Chinese will not participate in any gasoline embargo. Beijing gets 11 percent of its oil from Iran<\/a>, and it has made it clear it will continue to deliver gasoline to Iran<\/a><\/a>. Moscow\u2019s position is that Russia<\/a> might consider sanctions down the road, but it hasn\u2019t specified when, and it hasn\u2019t specified what. The Russians are more than content seeing the U.S. bogged down in the Middle East and so are not inclined to solve American problems in the region. With the Chinese and Russians unlikely to embargo gasoline, these sanctions won\u2019t create significant pain for Iran<\/a>. Since all other sanctions are gestures, the diplomatic approach is therefore unlikely to work.<\/p>\n

The military<\/a> option has its own risks. First, its success depends on the quality of intelligence on Iran<\/a>\u2019s nuclear facilities<\/a> and on the degree of hardening of those targets. Second, it requires successful air attacks. Third, it requires battle damage assessments that tell the attacker whether the strike succeeded. Fourth, it requires follow-on raids to destroy facilities that remain functional. And fifth, attacks must do more than simply set back Iran<\/a>\u2019s program a few months or even years: If the risk of a nuclear Iran<\/a> is great enough to justify the risks of war<\/a>, the outcome must be decisive.<\/p>\n

Each point in this process is a potential failure point. Given the multiplicity of these points \u2014 which includes others not mentioned \u2014 failure may not be an option, but it is certainly possible\u2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

[continues at STRATFOR<\/a>]<\/p>\n

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