{"id":401259,"date":"2010-03-07T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2010-03-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/complete-oscar-odds-2010-3"},"modified":"2010-03-07T19:00:00","modified_gmt":"2010-03-08T00:00:00","slug":"how-to-make-money-trading-tonights-oscars-hint-buy-anybody-but-avatar-and-hurt-locker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/401259","title":{"rendered":"How To Make Money Trading Tonight’s Oscars: (Hint: Buy Anybody But Avatar And Hurt Locker)"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we wait for the Oscars to begin, we thought we’d head over to Intrade<\/a> to check out the market odds for best-picture winners. Here are the full odds. Our commentary is below.<\/p>\n

\"oscars\"<\/p>\n

Two things:<\/p>\n

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  1. Wow, we forgot there are 10 films now. That just seems crazy, but it’s all part of the Academy’s efforts to bestow “Best Picture” nominations on more films, potentially juicing up ticket sales.<\/li>\n
  2. Despite the fact that there are 10 films, there’s a 93% chance that the winner is either Hurt Locker or Avatar. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Of course, the market isn’t totally liquid or perfect, and the bid-ask spreads are sizable, so it costs 12.2% to buy the remaining 8 films. Still, we like this trade. You’re getting paid 8-1 and it pays if any of 8 films (including “Basterds”) wins. Given that there are 10 films, and thus the potential for anyone to win with just a tiny plurality of the votes, this seems pretty generous.<\/p>\n

    And if you do buy the rest, and you lose, well… you knew the odds were long. It doesn’t mean you weren’t getting good value for your bet.<\/p>\n

    Join the conversation about this story »<\/a><\/p>\n

    See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n