{"id":405740,"date":"2010-03-08T16:28:00","date_gmt":"2010-03-08T21:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"e2249889-c78b-43e3-9643-b1d7d4aa587b:404958"},"modified":"2010-03-08T16:28:00","modified_gmt":"2010-03-08T21:28:00","slug":"all-star-index-predicts-restrained-u-s-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/405740","title":{"rendered":"All-star index predicts restrained U.S. recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The world abounds with financial indicators that try to tell us where the economy is headed next, but the latest effort to devise such a forecasting device deserves more attention than most. For one thing, it\u2019s the product of an all-star team of five academic and private-sector economists. For another thing, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.econbrowser.com\/archives\/2010\/03\/a_new_index_of.html\" >the index<\/a> spans an amazing amount of data\u201444 indicators in all.<\/p>\n<p>The index goes by the unlovely name of USMPF-FCI (for US Monetary Policy Forum Financial Conditions Index) and, unlike most such indicators, it shows that the U.S. economy is demonstrating renewed weakness after staging an initial recovery in the first part of 2009. While the index isn\u2019t forecasting a double-dip recession, it suggests that GDP growth will be restrained during the rest of this year.<\/p>\n<p>Much of its pessimism stems from the deviation between what is happening and what you would expect to be happening at this stage of a recovery. \u201cMany indicators have not improved as much as you would expect given the return to GDP growth and the departure from a typical recovery pattern is viewed by the index as a highly pessimistic development,\u201d says James Hamilton, a professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego.<br \/><i><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post.<br \/>&nbsp;<\/i>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/network.nationalpost.com\/NP\/aggbug.aspx?PostID=404958\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The world abounds with financial indicators that try to tell us where the economy is headed next, but the latest effort to devise such a forecasting device deserves more attention than most. For one thing, it\u2019s the product of an all-star team of five academic and private-sector economists. For another thing, the index spans an [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4060,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-405740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4060"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=405740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405740\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=405740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=405740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=405740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}