{"id":408947,"date":"2010-03-09T10:13:00","date_gmt":"2010-03-09T15:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"e2249889-c78b-43e3-9643-b1d7d4aa587b:405178"},"modified":"2010-03-09T10:13:00","modified_gmt":"2010-03-09T15:13:00","slug":"4-reasons-to-be-bearish-on-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/408947","title":{"rendered":"4 reasons to be bearish on stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve outlined Edward Yardeni\u2019s 12 reasons to be bullish<\/a>, so here are some reasons to be bearish, or at least cautious.<\/p>\n

The market\u2019s rebound has been impressive, but even if the S&P 500 edges a little higher in the near term, John Higgins, senior markets economist at Capital Economics expects to see it back down around 1,000 by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

The market\u2019s gains this time around have been considerably greater than normal<\/b>
In the past 12 months, the S&P 500 has risen by nearly 70%. During the previous 13 economic downturns since 1929-1933, it rose by an average of 44% in the first year after hitting a low.<\/p>\n

Equities have tended to do less well in the second year after hitting a cyclical low<\/b>
An average rise of 5% or so has been typical. \u201cThere is always the chance that the market will fare better than average this time around… But we doubt last year\u2019s spectacular gains will be sustained for long.\u201d<\/p>\n

Valuations are not compellingly attractive<\/b>
The stock market\u2019s cyclically-adjusted price (reported) earnings ratio is about a third higher than its long-run average based on data provided by Robert Shiller of Yale University. The gradual scaling back of unconventional monetary policy stimulus is likely to curb investors\u2019 appetite for risk this year even if the Fed leaves key policy rates on hold.<\/p>\n

The economic recovery is also likely to run out of steam before too long<\/b>
In the absence of a further increase in margins \u2013 which have already rebounded \u2013 weak economic growth should weigh on corporate earnings. <\/p>\n

Jonathan Ratner<\/a> <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve outlined Edward Yardeni\u2019s 12 reasons to be bullish, so here are some reasons to be bearish, or at least cautious. The market\u2019s rebound has been impressive, but even if the S&P 500 edges a little higher in the near term, John Higgins, senior markets economist at Capital Economics expects to see it back down […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4059,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-408947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/408947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4059"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=408947"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/408947\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=408947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=408947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=408947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}