{"id":432424,"date":"2010-03-15T17:43:00","date_gmt":"2010-03-15T21:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"e2249889-c78b-43e3-9643-b1d7d4aa587b:408205"},"modified":"2010-03-15T17:43:00","modified_gmt":"2010-03-15T21:43:00","slug":"forecasts-underestimate-oil-demand-study-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/432424","title":{"rendered":"Forecasts underestimate oil demand, study says"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Official forecasts may be underestimating the future demand for oil by 30 million barrels a day, according to a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.econ.nyu.edu\/dept\/courses\/gately\/OilDemandDargayGatelyFeb2010.pdf\" >research paper<\/a> by Joyce Dargay of the University of Leeds and Dermot Gately of New York University. If so, the next oil crisis is going to be a whopper.<\/p>\n<p>Dargay and Gately base their logic on the observation that the demand for oil no longer appears to respond to price. While price increases in the 1970s hammered worldwide demand for the fuel, the heftier oil prices we\u2019ve witnessed over the past decade had no such effect. Instead, worldwide demand for oil increased by 4% during that time.<\/p>\n<p>The professors say the 1970s fall in demand was the result of taking advantage of simple, obvious economies such as moving away from using oil to generate power. But they caution that those successes can\u2019t be repeated.<\/p>\n<p>If per-capita oil demand grows at the modest rates that Dargay and Gately project, rather than falling as most forecasters believe will happen, total oil demand will be 138 million barrels a day in 2030, about 30 million barrels higher than OPEC or the U.S. Department of Energy foresee.<\/p>\n<p>Does this mean the world is headed for a peak oil apocalypse? Not necessarily. If we begin using more natural gas as a transportation fuel, a crisis may be averted, says <a href=\"http:\/\/www.econbrowser.com\/archives\/2010\/03\/the_challenges.html\" >James Hamilton<\/a>, an economics professor at the University of California, San Diego. \u201cIf not, the challenges of 2007-2008 will return with a vengeance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><i>Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post. <\/i><br \/>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/network.nationalpost.com\/NP\/aggbug.aspx?PostID=408205\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Official forecasts may be underestimating the future demand for oil by 30 million barrels a day, according to a research paper by Joyce Dargay of the University of Leeds and Dermot Gately of New York University. If so, the next oil crisis is going to be a whopper. Dargay and Gately base their logic on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4062,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-432424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4062"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=432424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432424\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=432424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=432424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=432424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}