{"id":443146,"date":"2010-03-18T12:45:56","date_gmt":"2010-03-18T16:45:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/firedoglake.com\/?p=73622"},"modified":"2010-03-18T12:45:56","modified_gmt":"2010-03-18T16:45:56","slug":"new-health-care-whip-count-192-yes-208-no-205-210-with-leaners","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/443146","title":{"rendered":"New Health Care Whip Count: 192 Yes, 208 No (205-210 with Leaners)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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photo: Leo Reynolds via Flickr<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

We’re getting to an end game here, and so the counts will come fast and furious at this point. I think that it’s good to look at the count right when the CBO numbers have been released as a good baseline for the future.<\/p>\n

So here<\/a> was the last whip count. Changes since then:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Mike Arcuri, a lean no, has told colleagues he’s a No<\/a> on the bill. He voted Yes last time. In addition, I have enough information to make John Barrow a No.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Dan Lipinski claims that Bart Stupak has 12 members<\/a>, including him, switching to No on the bill because of the abortion funding language, but I think it’s a bluff. I think there are certainly some, like Stupak, Jerry Costello (who I’m putting in the confirmed Stupak bloc), Lipinski, and Joe Donnelly, but others might be conflicted. Steve Driehaus says he’s in the bloc<\/a>, but gives himself a small out. Marcy Kaptur is straight-up lying<\/a> about what the abortion language in the Senate bill would do, but she’s bringing up other points as well. So it’s completely unclear.<\/p>\n

\u2022 In fact, I’m taking Kathy Dahlkemper off the confirmed Stupak board and into the Stupak-curious bloc. The anti-reform activists ran an ad in her district<\/a> that claimed the bill would threaten Americans with cancer, basically. Dahlkemper’s parents both recently died of cancer and she is indignant about that. That could be the peg that puts her to yes. People change their votes for weird reasons.<\/p>\n

\u2022 We’re apparently going to hear Harry Teague’s decision<\/a> today.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Utah doctors are making a major push<\/a> to get Jim Matheson to Yes, and have gained some free media for their efforts.<\/p>\n

\u2022 I mentioned the immigration restrictions<\/a> before. It’s going to be a very tough vote for Luis Gutierrez, but I’m still not seeing him as a No.<\/p>\n

\u2022 This list of labor targets<\/a> on the Stupak bloc is interesting, but I’m thinking they’re flying as blind as the rest of us.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Suzanne Kosmas, a former No, sounds more and more like a Yes<\/a>. She’s a key get for leadership. Baron Hill sounded like a Yes coming out of the caucus meeting, too. In fact, I’ll take him off the board.<\/p>\n

Where does that leave us? Arcuri and Costello and Barrow are No votes. Dahlkemper goes into the undecided category. Baron Hill’s a yes. We’re at 192-208, and with leaners, 205-210. I expect those leaners to get firmed up in the next few hours.<\/p>\n

The totals. . . <\/span><\/p>\n

Definite YES:
\n192 Democrats, including Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who voted No last time, in November.<\/p>\n

Definite NO:
\n178 Republicans, including Joseph Cao (R-LA), who voted Yes in November. He\u2019s in the Stupak bloc.<\/p>\n

Definite NO:
\n30 Democrats.<\/p>\n

24 Democrats who voted No in November:
\nBobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow.<\/p>\n

6 Democrats who voted Yes in November (“S” for confirmed Stupak bloc):
\nMike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).<\/p>\n

12 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:<\/p>\n

7 lean Yes:
\nBart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, John Tanner.<\/p>\n

4 undecided:
\nJim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire.<\/p>\n

1 lean No:
\nGlenn Nye.<\/p>\n

19 potential Yes-No flip votes:<\/p>\n

5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
\nBrad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur.<\/p>\n

6 lean Yes:
\nPaul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Betty Sutton, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.<\/p>\n

8 other undecided Democrats:
\nZack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean.<\/p>\n

1 lean No:
\nMarion Berry.<\/p>\n

Democrats need 24 of a combination of the 12 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 19 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 24 out of the remaining uncommitted 31. If you\u2019re counting leaners, Democrats need 11 of the last 16 uncommitted.<\/p>\n

Tags: CBO score<\/a>, health care reform<\/a>, whip count<\/a><\/p>\n

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photo: Leo Reynolds via Flickr We’re getting to an end game here, and so the counts will come fast and furious at this point. I think that it’s good to look at the count right when the CBO numbers have been released as a good baseline for the future. So here was the last whip […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4406,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-443146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/443146","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4406"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=443146"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/443146\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=443146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=443146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=443146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}