{"id":447167,"date":"2010-03-19T11:00:21","date_gmt":"2010-03-19T15:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/firedoglake.com\/?p=73776"},"modified":"2010-03-19T11:00:21","modified_gmt":"2010-03-19T15:00:21","slug":"new-health-care-whip-count-193-yes-208-no-with-leaners-203-211-update-2x-195-yes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/447167","title":{"rendered":"New Health Care Whip Count: 193 Yes, 208 No (with Leaners: 203-211); Update 2x: 195 Yes"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

(photo: msmail)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Update<\/strong>: John Boccieri has just confirmed that he will vote for this bill<\/a>–that brings the Yes column to 194.<\/em><\/p>\n

Update 2<\/strong>: Dina Titus gets us to 195 “yes.”<\/a>
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Here’s the last one<\/a>. We’re going to start to see this firm up, and we can focus attention on the last holdouts. We can determine if all those No-Yes flippers can offset the Stupak bloc, and if enough of them can get peeled off, that’s basically what it’s come down to. But there still may be some surprises.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Like Stephen Lynch (D-MA), who emerged from his meeting with President Obama still unconvinced<\/a> of the merits of the bill, and still firm in his intention to vote No:<\/p>\n

\n
\n

After emerging from a 40-minute Oval Office meeting with Obama and a White House aide, Lynch (D-South Boston) said he was not persuaded and made it official: \u201cI am firmly a \u2018no\u2019 vote.\u201d […]<\/p>\n

\u201cThe president was courteous and generous with his time,\u201d said Lynch, noting a White House aide explained how various changes made the bill attractive. \u201cThe president asked me if there was anything he could do that I should tell him, and I told him, \u2018I have been over this bill and I still wasn\u2019t satisfied.\u2019 \u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Apparently his offices are getting swamped today. I wouldn’t discount the role of Massachusetts in all of this, by the way, both the Scott Brown election and the fact that reform offers much less to them given their current system. But regardless, I think you have to move him to No (I had him lean No).<\/p>\n

\u2022 John Boccieri will hold a press conference<\/a> this morning, I’m hearing at around 10:40am ET, to announce his vote. He’s a lean Yes in my count, but would be another flipper, who voted No the first time around.<\/p>\n

\u2022 This count will reflect the decisions of Betsy Markey, Bart Gordon and Travis Childers<\/a>, which I reported on yesterday.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Famed secessionist Rick Perry is getting involved<\/a> in the vote by hosting a conference call with district residents of “undecided” Texas congressmen. Two of them are actually undecided – Henry Cuellar and Solomon Ortiz – but I’m not thinking this will sway them.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Marcy Kaptur spends a whole interview with the Toledo Blade<\/a> talking about the abortion language, then says abortion “should not be the issue that predominates in any health insurance debate.” Well, thanks for helping with that, Marcy. She’s becoming incoherent.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Bart Stupak’s a No, but if he says he’s a No he won’t get on television anymore, so he claims to be open to a deal<\/a>. There may be a last-minute deal on the table where Stupak gets an annual up-or-down vote on abortion funding, but that an “if all else fails” scenario, and I think there would be too much resistance to it in the caucus.<\/p>\n

\u2022 The Washington Post reports<\/a> that Mike Arcuri and Zack Space are both “lean No” votes. Arcuri was a No in my count after a separate report yesterday; Space was undecided. Back in January, Space said he opposed any comprehensive bill. I still think he’s gettable, but will monitor.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Allen Boyd told reporters he’s undecided<\/a> and would give an answer in the morning.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Scott Murphy seemed somewhat unenthused<\/a> by the CBO analysis. “The issue of cost control goes beyond just deficit spending. To have true health care reform, we need to decrease the amount our families and small businesses spend on health care,\u201d he said. He’s still undecided (I have him lean Yes based on prior statements, but I’m rethinking that).<\/p>\n

\u2022 Chris Carney’s statement upon release of the bill, on the other hand, was more positive<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So if you add that all up, I have a count of 193-208, with leaners 203-211. I expect that to change rapidly today – we could know Boccieri and Boyd in a matter of minutes.<\/p>\n

The numbers on the flip. . .<\/span>:<\/p>\n

Definite YES<\/strong>:
\n193 Democrats, including 3 who voted No last time, in November (Dennis Kucinich, Bart Gordon, Betsy Markey).<\/p>\n

Definite NO<\/strong>:
\n177 Republicans<\/p>\n

Definite NO<\/strong>:
\n31 Democrats.<\/p>\n

24 Democrats who voted No in November:
\nBobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow, Travis Childers.<\/p>\n

7 Democrats who voted Yes in November (\u201cS\u201d for confirmed Stupak bloc):
\nStephen Lynch, Mike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).<\/p>\n

11 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

5 lean Yes:
\nJohn Tanner, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Scott Murphy.<\/p>\n

5 undecided:
\nJim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire, Allen Boyd.<\/p>\n

1 lean No:
\nGlenn Nye.<\/p>\n

20 potential Yes-No flip votes<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
\nBrad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur, *Joseph Cao.<\/p>\n

5 lean Yes:
\nPaul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.<\/p>\n

9 other undecided Democrats:
\nZack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean, Mike Michaud.<\/p>\n

3 lean No:
\nMarion Berry, Joseph Cao.<\/p>\n

Democrats need 23 of a combination of the 11 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 23 out of the remaining uncommitted 31. If you\u2019re counting leaners, Democrats need 13 of the last 17 uncommitted.<\/p>\n

Tags: Democrats<\/a>, Health care<\/a>, House of Representatives<\/a>, whip counts<\/a><\/p>\n

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(photo: msmail) Update: John Boccieri has just confirmed that he will vote for this bill–that brings the Yes column to 194. Update 2: Dina Titus gets us to 195 “yes.” Here’s the last one. We’re going to start to see this firm up, and we can focus attention on the last holdouts. We can determine […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4406,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-447167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/447167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4406"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=447167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/447167\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=447167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=447167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=447167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}