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The UFC definitely put together a fight fans’ card tonight on Versus. The top three fights shouldn’t have any stalling or attempts to grind out a victory. There’s always a chance, in spite of what he says before the fight, that Brandon Vera will take a methodical approach. That probably won’t be allowed now that it appears Jon Jones has some extra motivation. Jones lost his cool a bit during yesterday’s weigh-in, saying he doesn’t like Vera. There’s little chance the two big heavyweight fights are grinders. If the Gabriel Gonzaga-Junior Dos Santos fight does hit the deck, "Napao" has been a guy who works for nasty submissions. <\/p>\n
UFC on Versus 1 betting odds (Courtesy Venetian Resort Hotel Casino): Brandon Vera (+210) v. Jon Jones (-270) – Light heavyweight<\/strong> Gabriel Gonzaga (+220) v. Junior Dos Santos (-300) – Heavyweight Here’s another case where the price is too rich. Dos Santos is the pick because of his power. Gonzaga was KO’d by Shane Carwin so his chin can be had. He’s also had cases in the past of bailing on fights once he got into trouble. If Gonzaga fights with a smart approach he can pull off the upset but when have we seen Gonzaga do anything but slug in the past? Paul Buentello (+325) v. Cheick Kongo (-450) – Heavyweight Alessio Sakara (+125) v. James Irvin (-155) – Middleweight<\/strong> Shannon Gugerty (+210) v. Clay Guida (-270) – Lightweight<\/strong> Eliot Marshall (+130) v. Vladimir Matyushenko (-160) – Light Heavyweight Daniel Roberts (+220) v. John Howard (-300) – Welterweight<\/p>\n Chase Gormley (Even) v. Brendan Schaub (-130) – Heavyweight Eric Schafer (+130) v. Jason Brilz (-160) – Light heavyweight<\/p>\n Duane Ludwig (-115) v. Darren Elkins (-115) -Welterweight<\/p>\n
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Every one respects Jones and his upside but this number is ridiculous. Vera has the complete package and has never been dominated in the cage. Randy Couture couldn’t throw him around so there’s little chance Jones will. On the feet, the more composed Vera should have the advantage. Based on how dominant he’s been, Jones should be the favorite, but there’s too much value on the side of Vera to pass up. Las Vegas bettors agree. The line has come down 70 cents.
PICK: VERA +210<\/a> <\/p>\n
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PICK: DOS SANTOS -300 <\/p>\n
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\nDon’t judge the books by their covers. Kongo always looks like a beast but he’s coming off a bad loss against Frank Mir. And the problem wasn’t on the ground. It started on the feet where Mir launched Kongo across the cage with a big left. I get the feeling Kongo will avoid banging it out with Buentello and get it to the ground. That would be the wise approach since Buentello’s best chance is to land a huge bomb. With the four-ounce gloves I’ll take my chances on the big price on Buentello.
PICK: BUENTELLO +325 <\/p>\n
Someone is getting knocked out here. Irvin has never had a UFC match go to a decision and it’s only happened twice in 20 career fights. Sakara is 4-4 with the promotion with just two fights going the distance. Sakara is the side for a couple of reasons. Irvin hasn’t fought in nearly two years, more importantly where will his stamina be? Irvin is dropping to 185 for the first time and looked very gaunt during yesterday’s weigh-in.
PICK: SAKARA +125<\/p>\n
Gugerty’s UFC streak should be snapped here. The San Diegan has had all four of his UFC fights end via submission. Guida really isn’t a submission guy so that means Gugerty will have to pull the big upset to keep the streak alive. Unless you’re talking about him facing a top five lightweight it’s tough to pick against Guida. His pace is too high and his ability to get the fight to the ground scores with judges.
PICK: GUIDA -270 <\/p>\n
<\/strong>Can someone pull Eliot Marshall out of his shell? The kid has a well-rounded game capped by a nasty submission game but he always seems concerned about pacing himself. We’re not sure "The Janitor" is the guy to do it. Matyushenko can be pretty calculating as well. We’ll roll with the mild upset hoping that Marshall pushes the pace and gets it to the ground.
PICK: MARSHALL +130<\/p>\n
Julio Paulino (+280) v. Mike Pierce (-360) – Welterweight<\/p>\n