THE American recovery is now three quarters old, and yet in only one month since the onset of recession in 2007 has payroll employment increased. That was last November, when non-farm employment ticked up by 64,000. The Obama administration has estimated that the economy will add an average of 95,000 jobs per month in 2010\u2014barely enough to prevent additional increases in the unemployment rate\u2014but the first two months of the year turned in employment declines.<\/p>\n
But perhaps March will be different. And maybe, just maybe, it will be very different. Some economists are anticipating an increase in payrolls of greater than 200,000, still somewhat modest for recovery from a deep recession but a huge reversal from recent figures. Simon Constable explains<\/a> the possibility:<\/p>\n In the first place, the government has started hiring large numbers of temporary workers for the census. That number should peak at around 635,000 in May, according to the Commerce Department. The jobs will be temporary, but they are still jobs and that will likely mean increased spending in the economy and hence likely more hiring.<\/p>\n Even without the census-related boost, Brusuelas said the private sector should add about 50,000 permanent jobs a month if the economy stays on its current trend. That trend-growth rate should edge higher towards the end of the year, with even more jobs being added each month, he said.<\/p>\n Add to that further evidence hidden deep with other data series. Even though the Institute for Supply Management\u2019s Manufacturing Index, which tracks growth in the factory sector, slowed in February, the sub-index for employment was more bullish, showing three months of steady increases.<\/p>\n The employment sub-index within ISM\u2019s Services Index, which tracks the non-manufacturing economy, also showed consistent gains over the same period. The two ISM data points augur improved hiring going forward.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n