{"id":477138,"date":"2010-03-26T11:33:44","date_gmt":"2010-03-26T15:33:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2010\/03\/26\/alternate-economic-measure-suggests-strong-end-to-2009\/"},"modified":"2010-03-26T11:33:44","modified_gmt":"2010-03-26T15:33:44","slug":"alternate-economic-measure-suggests-strong-end-to-2009","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/477138","title":{"rendered":"Alternate Economic Measure Suggests Strong End to 2009"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Commerce Department<\/strong> said Friday that fourth-quarter gross domestic product grew<\/a> a little bit less than it had previously estimated, growing at a 5.6% seasonally- and inflation-adjusted rate, rather than 5.9%. But another measure suggested the fourth-quarter rebound was stronger.<\/p>\n

\"\"Gross domestic income, which in theory should equal GDP, grew at a 6.2% seasonally- and inflation-adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter. That\u0092s a rebound from the third quarter, where GDI fell 0.4% even as GDP posted 2.2% growth. GDP measures the output of the economy as the sum of expenditures — consumption, plus investment plus government spending plus net exports. GDI measures total income in the economy.<\/p>\n

The distinction between GDP and GDI may matter because recent research<\/a> from Federal Reserve<\/strong> economist Jeremy Nalewaick<\/strong> suggests that GDI may be the more accurate measure. Even with the stronger fourth-quarter growth, GDI is 2.8% below its peak level, whereas GDP is 2% lower. That may explain why job losses have been so much more intense than the contraction in GDP suggests they should have been.<\/p>\n

In a research note Thursday, Goldman Sachs<\/strong> economist Jan Hatzius<\/strong> suggested that the more pronounced weakness GDI has shown over the course of the recession would continue in the fourth quarter, pointing to a weaker job market than most economists expect. Goldman Sachs economists\u0092 outlook on jobs is more pessimistic than most: In the Wall Street Journal\u0092s most recent survey of forecasters, they looked for a year-end unemployment rate of 10.2%, compared to an average estimate of 9.4%.<\/p>\n

Asked Friday if the stronger fourth GDI might point toward a better job market outlook, Mr. Hatzius acknowledged that \u0093it points in that direction.\u0094<\/p>\n

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The Commerce Department said Friday that fourth-quarter gross domestic product grew a little bit less than it had previously estimated, growing at a 5.6% seasonally- and inflation-adjusted rate, rather than 5.9%. But another measure suggested the fourth-quarter rebound was stronger. Gross domestic income, which in theory should equal GDP, grew at a 6.2% seasonally- and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":850,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-477138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/850"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=477138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477138\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=477138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=477138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=477138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}