{"id":485885,"date":"2010-03-29T17:55:29","date_gmt":"2010-03-29T21:55:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/californiadream\/?p=72"},"modified":"2010-03-29T17:55:29","modified_gmt":"2010-03-29T21:55:29","slug":"california%e2%80%99s-updated-economic-analysis-finds-climate-plan-offers-greener-days-ahead%e2%80%94part-one-gross-state-product","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/485885","title":{"rendered":"California\u2019s updated economic analysis finds climate plan offers greener days ahead\u2014part one: gross state product"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last\u00a0Wednesday, California\u2019s Air Resources Board released a new economic analysis showing that <strong>California can grow its economy and reap immediate benefits from cleaner air while meeting air pollution reduction goals of its Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006<\/strong> (AB 32).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>EDF will be producing a series of blog posts that summarize what CARB learned about how AB 32 will impact California\u2019s economy. After starting with today&#039;s post on CARB\u2019s methods and findings about gross state product, we\u2019ll cover topics about how the law will influence:\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>jobs<\/li>\n<li>household income<\/li>\n<li>energy price &#034;shock risk&#034; reduction<\/li>\n<li>\u2026and look at CARB&#039;s work compared to other analyses\u00a0<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>1. How CARB came up with the numbers<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For the past two years, economists at California\u2019s Air Resources Board (ARB) have been linking two models\u2014Energy2020 and EDRAM\u2014to simulate how California\u2019s economy will fare under its climate action plan.<\/p>\n<p>This cyber marriage allows the agency to study how carbon pricing policy ripples through the economy first in energy-related investments (Energy2020), then in terms of capital and labor investments in all sectors (EDRAM) and then back again into energy-related responses (Energy2020).This iterative approach zeros in on statewide changes in output, income, employment and emissions as a result of climate policy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Despite the convoluted modeling methods that make this computer jockey wish for the simpler days of Atari, the ARB has produced what its <a rel=\"nofollow\"  href=\"http:\/\/climatechange.ca.gov\/eaac\/index.html\">blue-ribbon advisory panel<\/a> has called a \u201c<em>careful and competent analysis<\/em>\u201d that \u201c<em>makes a very important and well-founded contribution to our understanding of the potential economic impacts of AB 32<\/em>.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. What the numbers show<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The advisory panel succinctly placed ARB\u2019s most recent findings in context by stating, \u201c<em>a general result emerging from the ARB\u2019s analysis is that the impact of AB 32 on the California economy will be modest relative to the overall California economy<\/em>.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In terms of total output, <strong>California\u2019s economy in 2020 is forecasted to be dramatically larger than it is now<\/strong>. The agency finds that climate policy will not have a significant influence on output (see\u00a0first\u00a0figure below), which concurs with a growing body of research indicating that <strong>climate policy will have a small and likely positive affect on the economy. <\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_87\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width:310px;\"><a rel=\"nofollow\"  href=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/californiadream\/files\/2010\/03\/Gross-State-Product-Without-AB32.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-87\" title=\"Gross State Product Without AB32\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/californiadream\/files\/2010\/03\/Gross-State-Product-Without-AB32-300x218.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"218\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Gross State Economic Productivity in 2020 with and without AB32 Implementation<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>There will, however, be significant and important changes that greatly reduce our dependence on foreign oil and improve the health of our communities.<\/strong> We&#039;ll cover those in future blog posts.<\/p>\n<p>The figure below shows changes to the gross state product by sector, with and without AB 32.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_88\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width:310px;\"><a rel=\"nofollow\"  href=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/californiadream\/files\/2010\/03\/AB-32-gross-value-added-by-sector.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-88\" title=\"AB 32 gross value added by sector\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.edf.org\/californiadream\/files\/2010\/03\/AB-32-gross-value-added-by-sector-300x218.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"218\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Economic Productivity by Sector with and without AB 32 Implementation<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>3. How reliable are CARB\u2019s numbers?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>All modeling studies, especially those forecasting far into the future, have limitations. Indeed, ARB\u2019s findings about the economic and jobs implications of climate policy depend highly on what the program actually entails after it\u2019s gone into effect, and what emissions and economic activity would be in comparison to \u201cbusiness-as-usual\u201d if no climate policy action were taken. <\/p>\n<p><strong>The advisory panel wrote that ARB has, \u201cdone a commendable job recognizing these uncertainties by assessing the economic costs of AB 32 under a range of scenarios.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>The panel noted that \u201c<\/strong><strong>these policies can shift the driver of economic growth from polluting energy sources to clean energy and efficient technologies, with little or no economic penalty\u201d, thus leaving us with <\/strong><strong>cleaner air, better public health and an economy that is more secure and less dependent on foreign fuel. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"feedflare\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?a=BObUwc7uTjk:3UW4gFSu8gE:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?a=BObUwc7uTjk:3UW4gFSu8gE:2mJPEYqXBVI\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?d=2mJPEYqXBVI\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?a=BObUwc7uTjk:3UW4gFSu8gE:7Q72WNTAKBA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?d=7Q72WNTAKBA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?a=BObUwc7uTjk:3UW4gFSu8gE:u0Zhe-nyOHo\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?d=u0Zhe-nyOHo\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?a=BObUwc7uTjk:3UW4gFSu8gE:dnMXMwOfBR0\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/environmentaldefense?d=dnMXMwOfBR0\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/environmentaldefense\/~4\/BObUwc7uTjk\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last\u00a0Wednesday, California\u2019s Air Resources Board released a new economic analysis showing that California can grow its economy and reap immediate benefits from cleaner air while meeting air pollution reduction goals of its Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32).\u00a0 EDF will be producing a series of blog posts that summarize what CARB learned about [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4273,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-485885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/485885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4273"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=485885"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/485885\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=485885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=485885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=485885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}